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Bayer 2022 Jaardraadje!

1. 4finance 1 februari 2022 18:37

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   LL schreef op 1 februari 2022 18:27:

   [...]
   
   Er zijn nog wat mogelijkheden te bedenken om er wat extra rendement uit te persen zoals bijvoorbeeld met het schrijven van opties.
   

   Rond de €45 heb ik de nodige put opties geschreven..... ;-)
   
   
2. stockholder 1 februari 2022 18:40

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   quote:

   4finance schreef op 1 februari 2022 18:37:

   [...]
   
   Rond de €45 heb ik de nodige put opties geschreven..... ;-)
   
   

   als ik vragen mag: welke looptijd zet daar nu op en hoeveel premie vang je?
3. LL 1 februari 2022 18:44

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   quote:

   4finance schreef op 1 februari 2022 18:37:

   [...]
   
   Rond de €45 heb ik de nodige put opties geschreven..... ;-)
   
   

   Nice! Schrijf je nooit calls voor nog wat extra?
4. 4finance 1 februari 2022 18:52

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   LL schreef op 1 februari 2022 18:44:

   [...]
   
   Nice! Schrijf je nooit calls voor nog wat extra?
   

   Soms, maar in dit geval niet gedaan. Ik heb een zeer brede porto met vele geschreven posities. Het is een kwestie van keuze maken ;-)
   
   
5. Robm 2 februari 2022 09:23

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   Goedemorgen/
   
   Mag ik vragen waar jullie opties op Bayer verhandelen. Ik beleg zelf via ING en Saxo maar ik kan daar geen opties op Bayer vinden
   Alvast bedankt
   
6. LL 2 februari 2022 11:33

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   Robm schreef op 2 februari 2022 09:23:

   Goedemorgen/
   
   Mag ik vragen waar jullie opties op Bayer verhandelen. Ik beleg zelf via ING en Saxo maar ik kan daar geen opties op Bayer vinden
   Alvast bedankt
   

   Ik zit bij de giro waar je opties kunt verhandelen wanneer je een active of trader account tot je beschikking hebt.
   De Duitse Eurex opties worden standaard vertraagd weergegeven. Realtimekoersen m.b.t. de Eurex kosten maandelijks zo'n € 10,5 per maand.
   
   Het platform is karig qua info (geen grieken etc) maar daardoor zijn de kosten laag.
   
   
7. Robm 2 februari 2022 12:30

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   Ik heb inmiddels contact gehad met medewerker van Saxo en ik heb nu ook de mogelijkheid om opties op hun platform te handelen.
8. 4finance 2 februari 2022 13:28

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   Robm schreef op 2 februari 2022 09:23:

   Goedemorgen/
   
   Mag ik vragen waar jullie opties op Bayer verhandelen. Ik beleg zelf via ING en Saxo maar ik kan daar geen opties op Bayer vinden
   Alvast bedankt
   
   

   Ik handel via een brokers platform en een bank account in Zwitserland. Dus mijn situatie is niet relevant ;-)
   Heb daar zeer uitgebreide mogelijkheden.
   
   
9. 4finance 3 februari 2022 22:27

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   BAYER blijft aardig overeind in al dat dalingsgeweld.
   
   
10. N audio 3 februari 2022 23:42

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    Had inderdaad beroerder gekund. Tech krijgt in elk geval weer harde klappen, vraag blijft dan: gaat de draai richting waarde nog verder doorzetten? Mocht Bayer toch nog richting 50 Euro gaan, ga ik nu zeker mijn long deel volledig maken.
11. 4finance 4 februari 2022 00:52

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    N audio schreef op 3 februari 2022 23:42:

    Had inderdaad beroerder gekund. Tech krijgt in elk geval weer harde klappen, vraag blijft dan: gaat de draai richting waarde nog verder doorzetten? Mocht Bayer toch nog richting 50 Euro gaan, ga ik nu zeker mijn long deel volledig maken.
    

    Ik ben inmiddels uitgekocht. Zit behoorlijk aan mijn max bij BAYER..... ;-)
    
    
12. stockholder 4 februari 2022 17:05

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    Ik zit met Bayer (en Inbev) meer dan vol. Staat tov de totale port. in onbalans.
    Ik blijf vertrouwen in beide aandelen houden Ik heb ze dan ook voor de langere termijn
    Ben nu wat in Besi op bouwen. Wat risico voller maar naar de toekomst toe in mijn visie een prima belegging.
13. Zengty 4 februari 2022 18:53

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    Een interessant rapport betreft Bayer, ik hoop dat jullie hier iets aan hebben.
    
    seekingalpha.com/article/4483716-baye...
    
    Bayer: Bad Times Might Be Followed By Good Times
    
    Feb. 02, 2022 6:22 PM ETBayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYRY), BAYZF5 Comments7 Likes
    N. Wergen profile
    
    Summary
    
    Bayer AG operates in markets with a high potential for growth while occupying a leading position.
    The company suffered a severe blow due to the purchase of Monsanto and the lawsuits that followed.
    Considering its financial statements and forecasts, Bayer is fairly valued at the moment. However, its great long-term vision could turn into a strength with big upside potential.
    Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome N. Wergen as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium. Click here to find out more »
    
    Die Bayer AG Werke in Wuppertal Elberfeld
    Bayer AG (OTCPK:BAYRY)(OTCPK:BAYZF) is probably one of the most talked about German stocks since the Monsanto takeover. After the hefty price slump, it is my opinion that Bayer has now reached its fair value, considering the financials it has delivered in recent years. In light of the long-term opportunities in the sectors in which Bayer operates, it might be worth it to consider a position in the shares in the future.
    
    What Is Bayer's Business Model?
    
    Bayer is one of the leading companies in the worldwide agricultural economics and healthcare market. Their agricultural product portfolio includes crop-protection products such as pesticides. In the healthcare sector, they offer prescription and non-prescription medicaments. All in all, the business operates in the following three divisions: Crop Science, Pharmaceuticals, and Consumer Health.
    
    A Closer Look at the Divisions
    In the Pharmaceuticals division, Bayer provides prescription medicaments. The business model includes a lot of patents, so the medicaments sold by Bayer can only be produced by Bayer. On the one hand, this offers a moat because no one is allowed to copy the medicament for the time it is protected by the patent. On the other hand, there is always pressure to get new patents because the old patents expire. The following depiction shows the top 15 products in Bayer's Pharmaceuticals division sorted by sales. It shows that the significant highest revenue streams result from Xarelto and Eylea. The patent of Xarelto remains valid until 2026. Sales in the Pharmaceuticals division in 2020 totaled about $17,243 million, which is about 42% of total sales.
    Bayer AG (OTCPK:BAYRY)(OTCPK:BAYZF) is probably one of the most talked about German stocks since the Monsanto takeover. After the hefty price slump, it is my opinion that Bayer has now reached its fair value, considering the financials it has delivered in recent years. In light of the long-term opportunities in the sectors in which Bayer operates, it might be worth it to consider a position in the shares in the future.
    
    What Is Bayer's Business Model?
    
    Bayer is one of the leading companies in the worldwide agricultural economics and healthcare market. Their agricultural product portfolio includes crop-protection products such as pesticides. In the healthcare sector, they offer prescription and non-prescription medicaments. All in all, the business operates in the following three divisions: Crop Science, Pharmaceuticals, and Consumer Health.
    
    A Closer Look at the Divisions
    In the Pharmaceuticals division, Bayer provides prescription medicaments. The business model includes a lot of patents, so the medicaments sold by Bayer can only be produced by Bayer. On the one hand, this offers a moat because no one is allowed to copy the medicament for the time it is protected by the patent. On the other hand, there is always pressure to get new patents because the old patents expire. The following depiction shows the top 15 products in Bayer's Pharmaceuticals division sorted by sales. It shows that the significant highest revenue streams result from Xarelto and Eylea. The patent of Xarelto remains valid until 2026. Sales in the Pharmaceuticals division in 2020 totaled about $17,243 million, which is about 42% of total sales.
    Finally, the Crop Science division includes the crop protection products and the pesticides. The main customers are firstly farmers who need crop protection solutions or genetically modified seeds. Furthermore, they provide customer services to support the farmers. Bayer offers products and services for foresters as well as people with a daily need such as plant protection in the home garden. To get the market leadership in the agricultural sector, Bayer took over Monsanto in 2018 for about USD$66 billion. The Sales of the Crop Science division in 2020 totaled roughly €18,840 million, which is approximately 46% of the total sales.
    Why Has Bayer Performed So Poorly?
    …
14. Zengty 4 februari 2022 18:53

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    Why Has Bayer Performed So Poorly?
    
    As a consequence of the Monsanto deal, Bayer was served a wave of lawsuits. The crop protection product "Roundup," originally provided by Monsanto, is suspected of being carcinogenic. Bayer has announced settlement agreements with most of the plaintiffs, but the topic is not yet finally closed in regard to future lawsuits. Bayer made provisions to cover the worst case, that the litigations cannot be settled.
    
    Nevertheless, the company market price has dropped from about €111 per share to about €51 per share right now. The reason for this is a mixture of legal uncertainties and a loss of trust in management. Among shareholders, the meaningfulness of taking over Monsanto, considering the risks, is a hot topic. The representative for the deal was CEO Werner Baumann. The price of Bayer shares increased by 5% when Manager Magazine published an interview at the end of 2020 in which Mr. Baumann announced his resignation from Bayer at the same time as the Monsanto integration was finalized.
    Moreover, there are persistent rumors about the company splitting into three divisions. However, CEO Werner Baumann and the chairman of the supervisory board, Dr. Norbert Winkeljohann, have rejected the notion of this.
    
    Checking the Financials
    
    To confirm the financials of Bayer, I have examined a few metrics. The observation period is 5 years, and the Monsanto deal is therefore included since 2018. The financials used in this article are highlighted.
    Starting with the consideration of their growth, Bayer's sales show a slightly positive trend. On average, the sales grew 4.62% per annum. The major growth results from the years in which Monsanto was included in the company. In 2020, Bayer could not continue this trend, but this is as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the sale of the Animal Health division in 2019 influenced the financials. For the reason of the allocations to provisions and the impact of the depreciation and amortization of the Monsanto deal, I will evaluate the EBITDA before special items as a better indicator of operative growth. The EBITDA before special items shows a positive trend with an average 5.75% gain.
    To move on to profitability, the EBITDA margin is very stable at about 24% to 28%. At this point, it is relevant to form an idea of the net income in the case that there were no allocations to provisions. In Bayer's annual report, it says the following:
    
    The balance of other operating expenses and other operating income amounted to minus €15,373 million (2019: minus €374 million). This figure reflected in particular the allocations to provisions in connection with the glyphosate, dicamba, PCB and Essure™ litigations as well as the impairment loss on goodwill in the Crop Science Division.
    
    With an accounted net income of minus €10,495 million, I will go with an estimated net income without the Roundup lawsuits of about €4,700 million. So, the estimated Return on Equity (RoE) is at 15% and the estimated Return on Assets (RoA) is at 4%. You can see the RoE is okay, especially if you have a look at the years 2016 and 2017, there is hope to achieve higher numbers in the future. When looking at the sinking equity, the high RoE in 2020 isn't that meaningful (more about this later). The RoA shows that the achieving of the net income is very capital-intensive. One reason for this is high goodwill and intangible assets positions in the balance sheets because of the Monsanto deal.
    To evaluate the risk, I want to start with looking at the gearing. Resulting from the negative earnings impact in 2020 (€10.5 billion), dividend payments (€2.8 billion), and negative currency effects (€3.5 billion), the shareholders' equity dropped about 36%. So, the gearing raised from 72% in 2019 to 98% in 2020. The equity ratio fell to 26%. From a risk perspective, these are not good signs. Considering the metrics below that show the last 5 years, the rising risk is relativized by both gearing and equity ratio.
    
    Calculations of the risk metrics
    Calculations of the risk metrics based on Bayer's financial reports (Author)
    As an interim conclusion, the risk of Bayer is rising due to an exchange of medium to low growth and medium profitability.
    
    A Closer Look at the Last and Future Quarters
    
    Before getting to a valuation, I want to review some estimates for sales and EBITDA by looking closer at the most recent quarters. On MarketScreener, the following estimates were published:
    
    Bayer AG estimates
    Estimates for Bayer's future financials (MarketScreener)
    To check the legitimacy of these numbers, I want to start with the year 2021. The numbers of the first three quarters are known, so it is possible to compare these quarters and the estimated Q4 with the numbers of 2020:
    
    Last quarters results and estimations for Q4 2021
    Last quarters results and estimations for Q4 2021 (Author)
    As per the net sales, EBITDA and EBIT stayed at nearly the same point as last year in most of the last quarters, therefore, I think the estimated numbers for Q4 2021 are legitimate. The net income starts to grow again because most of the allocations to provisions are already held back. Furthermore, the growth rates for the next two years (2022 and 2023) are not far away from the growth achieved in the past.
    
    Valuation
    
    With the above knowledge of the historical financials and the legitimate estimates, I will provide you with a possible valuation of Bayer from my point of view. At the time this article was written, the share price was about €51 and there were 984.42 million shares outstanding. Thus, the market capitalization was about €50.2 billion, less than Monsanto was acquired for.
    
    To get to a valuation of the Bayer portion, I want to relate the enterprise value to the sales and the EBITDA before special items, because a lot of the financials are influenced by the Monsanto problems. You can find my calculation in the following depiction.
    
    Calculations of future multiples based on the financials and the estimates
    Conclusion
    
    In addition to the risks already mentioned, I would like to briefly summarize the opportunities again:
    
    Market leadership in a megatrend
    After the Monsanto integration is done, it could change everything for the better
    If the lawsuits are settled, a lot of pressure will fall off of the stock
    To complete my thesis, I think the actual price is a good entrance point for people who want to get their hands on a company that probably could become enormously important in the future, and as a result trade at higher multiples with higher income. But for me as a shareholder, it is only a hold situation due to the black box of Monsanto that delivered not as much as expected, except problems. If the long-term trend starts getting confirmed by the numbers, I see big potential in Bayer stock.
15. Zengty 4 februari 2022 18:56

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    Agenda:
    18-02 Nubeqa investor webinar
    
    www.bayer.com/en/investors/nubeqa-inv...
16. stockholder 4 februari 2022 19:20

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    @Zengty
    Een interessant rapport betreft Bayer, ik hoop dat jullie hier iets aan hebben.
    
    Uitermate interessant artikel met name deel 2
    dank (duim)
    
    
17. 4finance 4 februari 2022 23:58

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    quote:

    Zengty schreef op 4 februari 2022 18:56:

    Agenda:
    18-02 Nubeqa investor webinar
    
    www.bayer.com/en/investors/nubeqa-inv...
    

    Dank voor het plaatsen van al dit BAYER nieuws. Je hoeft geen raketgeleerde te zijn om te veronderstellen dat het aandeel een hele forse inhaalslag gaat maken als het Roundup dossier tot een einde komt. De toko draait geweldig en de koers staat zwaar ondergewaardeerd. Langzaam aan komt bij beleggers het besef om op deze BAYER trein te stappen voor een prachtige rit.
    Echt dalen wil het niet meer, maar wel al wat geniepig stijgen........
    
    
18. N audio 9 februari 2022 10:03

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    Mag van mij wat beter mee omhoog bewegen op zo'n groene beursdag. Lijkt wel erg aan de korte lijn te liggen.
    Bedankt Zengty voor de link.
19. stockholder 9 februari 2022 19:10

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    Optietip 260 | Inspelen op mogelijke koerssprong www.beleggersbelangen.nl › Opties
    6 uur geleden — De optietip van deze week is een call op het aandeel Bayer.
    
    Ik liep hier toevallig tegenaan. Ik kan het helaas zelf ziet benaderen omdat ik geen abonnement heb.
    Geeft echter wel aan dat BelBel ook muziek ziet in dit aandeel.
20. Zengty 10 februari 2022 08:59

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    Bayer gets U.S. FDA Fast Track designation for asundexian Stroke Program.Drug is potential treatment for secondary prevention in patients with a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke