Edelmetalen Terug naar discussie overzicht

Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 6 augustus 2004 14:53

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   Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change Low High
   
   GOLD 08/06/2004 08:48 398.40 398.90 +6.50 +1.66% 391.30 399.70
   
   SILVER 08/06/2004 08:48 6.83 6.85 +0.11 +1.64% 6.67 6.89
   
   
   
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 6 augustus 2004 14:56

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   Yes door de $400 heen.
3. [verwijderd] 6 augustus 2004 16:49

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   Hai GH,
   
   Jammer dat goud niet op eigen kracht door de 400 gaat, hij gaat niet door de 400 euro, maar door de 400$ die steeds minder waard wordt.....
   
   Het wordt tijd dat de goudprjs eindelijk weer eens onafhankelijk van welke valuta dan ook gaat stijgen.......
   
   Wilbert
   PS prijs alweer beneden de 400 :-(
4. [verwijderd] 9 augustus 2004 10:12

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   Hier nog een link met veel info.
   
   www.dani2989.com/gold/Gold.html
5. [verwijderd] 9 augustus 2004 15:40

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   8/9/04
   
   John Chalekson, HedgedFund.org
   
   It seems that there are always people trying to compare the value of gold versus the value of silver. Most realistic people would agree that silver is the obvious undervalued element between the two. A key factor that keeps the ratio of silver to gold around 60:1 is the fact that humans are inherently emotional, greedy, and fearful.
   
   I would like to use a quote about gold from Alan Greenspan's historic1966 essay, “Gold and Economic Freedom,” with the following:
   
   “More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable.”
   
   Gold will always be the metal of luxury. It is virtually indestructible, and does not tarnish like silver does. Since humans are emotional, by nature, they would prefer that a store of value include something that does not tarnish or look less valuable.
   
   But let us ask the real question, which includes the dynamics of “supply” and “demand.” Just how much gold is there, compared to how much silver, and more importantly, how much is consumed versus how much is stored in vaults?
   
   It has been said that about 95% of the world’s gold supply still is above ground and circulating around the world. Silver on the other hand, is consumed by industry. A figure used commonly, is that 90% of all silver that has been mined has been consumed. This might be a slight stretch, but I believe the true number may be slightly lower.
   
   Since silver occurs naturally in the earth’s surface by a ratio of 17.5 to 1 (or the historical William Jennings Bryan 16:1 ratio), you would think that the price would reflect approximately that ratio. The price does not reflect this ratio. In biblical times, it was near this ratio, but we have strayed far from that ratio today. There are also very few places on the earth where silver is mined exclusively. It is often said that silver is a metal that is a byproduct of other mining operations, namely silver, nickel, copper, and other base metals. Yes, there are some mines that produce silver exclusively, but many of these operations have been put out of business over the last 25-year bear market in the price of silver. When it is not profitable to mine a metal below the cost they can sell it for, the mines close down, go bankrupt, or slow their production-- as we have seen over the last decade and a half.
   
   So where does the silver supply come from? A lot of the silver inventories each year come from recycling. Photography, and melting down scrap silver accounts for much of the increase in the supply year after year. The United States government has facilitated the increase in the supply of silver by slowly debasing the currency. We all remember when our coins contained 90% silver. This amount was then changed to 40% silver. Today, our coins contain almost zero silver. The only silver coins that are minted each year are the silver eagles, which for all intents and purposes, are produced for investment and novelty reasons. These coins are not circulated in a manner that is conducive to every day usage. Almost no country in the world today uses silver in their daily use as a monetary exchange.
   
   This situation is highly reminiscent of the late stages of the Roman Empire. The same situation occurred when the government slowly confiscated the silver from the coins, and eventually coined copper slugs with a silver sheen coating on the surface. After a few years, the silver sheen would wear through, and expose the slug for what it was. That was when the currency collapsed, and so did the Roman Empire.
   
   I am not saying we are in exactly the same situation now, but one has to wonder. The similarities are there, and we are now starting to even see a weakening in the almighty dollar—something that is foreign to most Americans. Sure the dollar has lost nearly 95% of its value since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. But, we have always had a strong dollar, and a strong US economy to ride on. This is obviously not the case, as we stand here watching in 2004.
   
   Another quote from the famous Greenspan “Gold and Economic Freedom” Essay:
   
   “Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.”
   
   We can all agree that BOTH silver and gold are scarce. They cannot be printed out of thin air, like fiat currencies. This money must be mined out of the earth, and refined into exchangeable, discrete units.
   
   Gold will always be considered a luxury, and a symbol for a store of value. Silver has lost that status years ago, when it was turned into a commodity by the Silver Users and by the perpetual extraction of the metal by governments from our currencies, worldwide. The fundamental “supply and demand” dynamics that drive free-market capitalism were disrupted.
   
   Some have postulated that there is a shortage of silver because of this. Others have assured that there is no shortage at all. To be honest, nobody really knows exactly what the real silver supply situation looks like. The facts about the situation, and most can agree upon are:
   
   Silver is used and destroyed each year by industry domestically, as well as worldwide. And we have been running a deficit for approximately 13 years and counting (more silver used than produced).
   The US has exhausted most of its 1.5 billion ounce (once was 3 billion ounces in the 1960’s) “strategic stockpile” of silver from 1980, until now, and the US Mint is now a net buyer of silver for minting silver eagles.
   Real Silver coins in circulation have decreased greatly since 1980, when a lot were melted down during the late 1970’s to 1980 “spike” in precious metals.
   Silver is held by countries like India, who have never expressed an affinity for being net sellers of silver.
   Many Indians use silver as savings, and pass it down from generation to generation in the form of family heirlooms, bullion, and jewelry.
   China and Japan are starting to buy more silver and gold, and beginning to not accept US dollars as payment.
   Emerging markets will still utilize old fashion photography methods, like India and China. And more recently they are also starting to use the metals as a form of “savings.”
   Silver “leasing” has mopped up some of the supply issues over the years. The ability to sell something, and then buy it back when the supply is more available, has stabilized the price.
   Many mines worldwide have been shut down and closed because mining silver exclusively has been a negative cash-flow producing activity over the last 15 years.
   Our standard of living greatly relies on silver. We use “the best conductor of electricity” to use in our daily light switches, batteries, computers, monitors, dishwashers, calculators, cars, radios, bearings, and countless products. What about the future of technology, with Fuel Cells, Superconductors, and Nanotechnology? There is a trend toward the future technologies to use silver. Its only natural since it’s the best reflector of light and the best conductor of electricity, out of ALL of the periodic table (Element 47).
   
   We will see higher gold an
6. [verwijderd] 10 augustus 2004 11:03

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   Volgens Larry s oude rekensommetje behoort een goudprijs van nu +/- $ 725
   tot de mogelijkheden.
   
   LARRY KUDLOW ON THE OIL/GOLD Ratio (June 2001)
   
   Snippet:
   
   Today's barrel price for oil is $17, which looks to be just about right in terms of two economic models of oil-price behavior. First, the inflation-adjusted real price of oil has averaged $21.50 a barrel over the past decade. Real prices moved temporarily to $45 during the Persian Gulf War, and briefly fell to $10 a barrel in late 1998 during the global financial crisis that threatened world deflation and recession. The most recent spike was slightly above $30 a barrel this year, so a $17 barrel of oil averages nicely within this pattern.
   
   Second, the monetary model of oil prices that uses the ratio between gold and oil suggests that today's $17 per barrel spot price (or current price) for West Texas crude is also just about right. Gold is a useful benchmark because its monetary purchasing power is relatively constant over long periods of time. Hence, over time, an ounce of gold should buy roughly the same number of barrels of oil. In the past decade an ounce of gold bought seventeen barrels of oil, on average. Today, with gold at $275 per ounce, a $17 barrel of oil implies 16.2 barrels per gold ounce. This is actually below the average of seventeen oil barrels per ounce of gold registered over the past ten years. Therefore, a $16 per barrel oil price would be consistent with the decade-long trend.
   
   www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlowp...
7. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2004 14:33

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   25 Reasons Why Gold Will Rise (revisited)
   + 2 more reasons added
   Jim Willie CB
   Aug 11, 2004
   
   For specific detailed analysis of the Gold, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and Fed monetary policy, see instructions for subscription to my newsletter research reports, which include stock recommendations positioned to rise in the commodity bull market.
   
   As the slow "dog days" of summer are upon us, why not a reflection on why gold still makes sense? The first article under my pen name "25 Reasons Why Gold Will Rise" was published in November of 2002 (much gratitude to the Moriartys). The entire motivation for the compendium of justifications was disagreement and disrespect for the few shallow reasons offered by the press & media. The only reason they seemed to understand was MidEast violence. Not the Iraqi conflict, but the Israel-Palestine ongoing endless version. Do they even recall this overused reason now that the focus of MidEast violence has moved 1000 miles east and 1500 miles southeast? Probably not. They would have to be blind not to discern tremendous problems for the US Economy external finances. They overlooked back then a cluster of monetary reasons and economic fundamentals behind an imminent gold rise and USDollar decline. They did not get it right then; they do not get it right now. Let's revisit the listed reasons why gold has risen, as forecasted 20 months ago. They are still relevant for further price appreciation. Since the time of its writing, two additional reasons have been captured, worthy of addendum.
   
   1. real rate of interest has been near zero since Oct2001
   For over a full year, a 1% Fed Funds target, and a 1.0% to 1.2% floating yield on the 3-month TBill has prevailed. Since spring 2003, when the Fed issued its last rate cut, negative real rates have been a driving force for gold. With a low-ball CPI in the 2% to 3% range short-term real rates have remained negative. Naïve gold watchers, usually gold bashers, point to real rates normalizing toward zero or even turning positive. Perhaps they should check the CPI, up in the last year much more than the measly 25 basis points ordered by the Fed in late June. The Consumer Price Index is ridiculously low in the true measure of consumer price inflation. Real rates have actually turned deeper negative, and will likely continue in this pattern. Given the paltry yields offered by short-term TBills, gold will continue to receive a lift for some time into the future.
   
   2. rise in foreign holdings of US assets increases our vulnerability to foreign abandonment
   The accumulation recently by foreign entities, principally central banks, has gone parabolic in the last year. The percentage of new Treasury issuance gobbled up for foreigners has risen a few percentage points to 45%. The total foreign accumulation of US financial assets in 2002 was almost $400 billion. In 2003 they gathered another $600 billion. Better yet, in the first half of 2004 alone, they collected over $1600 billion in additional assets. In the last couple months, Asians have noticeably withdrawn their demand. This could portend trouble ahead, and a strong motivation to own gold. One should be careful to note that dishoarding of their positions would be inflationary to prices in Asia, while deflationary to prices in the USA. A liquidity flood would take place in Asia, but an economic drag of huge proportions would take place in the USA.
   
   3. money supply increased over 40% since Jan 2001, close to 100% rise since 1991
   The money supply continues to rise steadily but not yet parabolically. Since Dec 2002, the M3 has risen by 7.8%, which is above the GDP growth rate. However, in just the first seven months of 2004, the M3 has risen 3.9%, which marks an acceleration. Furthermore, an estimated 25% of that increase in the monetary base owes to Fanny Mae and the cast of uncontrollable mortgage funders. One must be especially careful to track the destination of new money created. Some goes to augment the demand for assets like housing, stocks, and bonds. The majority of new money seems to go toward consumer debt and insurance against higher rates, like more wasted capital in seawall sandbags to ward off assaults to the US credit market.
   
   4. return to federal deficits from recession and wartime economy, security spending
   An economic recovery usually brings about a gradual removal of red ink to the federal balance sheet. Not this time. Well, the claim of recovery has sounded less than honest, if not totally fallacious, even politically expedient. To me, it is ludicrous and fraudulent. Federal deficits have remained quite steady, in the $400 billion range for the last three years. The Iraqi War has resulted in $70 to $100 billion costs last year, and about the same this year, with no end in sight. Whenever the federal budget is cited, one should be certain to mention that the Social Security Trust Fund is routinely pilfered to pay for today's federal bills, even as future bills escalate. Coming years will see more dreadful deficits from additional commitments like the Medicare Prescription Drug bill, which will add roughly $550 billion over three years to the deficit. In the next few years, talk will emerge of eventual and inevitable US Treasury default.
   
   5. rising world tension, desire for safer safe haven, the geopolitical threat to peace
   In the last 20 months, Iraq became a new theatre for conflict. Open season was declared on oil pipelines. Saudi Arabia became a site for terrorist violence, a prediction of mine made in January 2003. Al Qaeda broadened its target zones to Bali and Spain, racking up several hundred more victims. Chechnya never went away. Israel erected a wall to quell easy access from neighboring zones. Geopolitical peace is nowhere to be seen, except in South America, Australia, and Asia.
   
   6. Glass-Steagal Law repeal now heightens risk of financial cluster failure in progress
   The law was instituted immediately after the Great Depression in order to protect from systemic ripple effect damage, extending from banks to brokerage houses to insurance companies. Now all three are vulnerably linked. The topic receives little if any attention. Giant financial conglomerates like Citigroup and JPMorgan possess dangerously large and unregulated derivative books. Each owns a major brokerage arm subsidiary. Citi owns a major insurance firm. Following the World Trade Center attack, insurance companies have been under enormous strain. As a group, they publicly state justification for rising insurance premiums to be increased risk of attack and disruption. If the truth be told, it is more due to severe drops in their income from fixed income investments, since Treasury yields are pathetically low. Brokerage houses are the tail on this dog. The two critical pieces are banking (loaded by derivative risk) and insurance (strained by low yield income and continued terrorist risk). If one arm falls, the others are dragged down.
   
   7. world perception of American institutionalized dishonesty
   A new wrinkle to US lack of pursuit for truth came in February 2003, as the US put forth questionable arguments and documents to justify Weapons of Mass Destruction existence in Iraq. The current administration alienated European leaders and NATO. We parted ways with a stodgy inactive United Nations, which had its own massive fraud controversy with Iraq's Food For Oil Program. In the last 20 months,
8. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2004 14:34

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   7. world perception of American institutionalized dishonesty
   A new wrinkle to US lack of pursuit for truth came in February 2003, as the US put forth questionable arguments and documents to justify Weapons of Mass Destruction existence in Iraq. The current administration alienated European leaders and NATO. We parted ways with a stodgy inactive United Nations, which had its own massive fraud controversy with Iraq's Food For Oil Program. In the last 20 months, US prestige has fallen more due to the ongoing war, its narrow coalition of support, and regular pipeline attacks. At the time of the last article, our prestige was under assault by a string of fraud cases, led by Enron and WorldCom and mutual fund controversies. The stock bust in 2000 had its aftermath.
   
   8. likelihood of systemic banking shock waves from debt collapse and derivative chain reaction
   Derivative books have continued to grow. Exact measurement is impossible. It would not be surprising to learn that in 20 months, the notional value of US-held derivative might have increased by 20% or more. During this time span, two bond revolts occurred, one in July 2003 (led by Fanny Mae convexity), another in March 2004 (led by a false start in jobs growth). Since bonds comprise at least 75% of derivative portfolios, they should be closely watched to signal trouble in the highly leverage arena of derivative trading. Low rates are kept low, in part by leveraged contracts to protect the entire financial system.
   
   9. reduction of USDollar usage as both store of value, banking reserve asset
   Several developments have undermined the USDollar as primary store of value in hard asset reserves. The euro has risen 40% in 20 months, as European and Middle East (OPEC and Arabs) have turned increasingly to diversification. Asians and Russians have also publicly announced a diversified intention, which includes gold. Islamic nations have begun to tinker with bilateral commerce settlement in Gold Dinars. China last autumn opened its first Gold Exchange. The winds are blowing away from the USDollar as the primary reserve currency.
   
   10. sharp increase of savings across Asia in the form of gold
   The Chinese move to open a Shanghai Gold Exchange marks a critical event. Rumors run rampant on a constant basis that China is accumulating gold for a future bank system foundation. Promoting gold for citizen savings only reinforces the direction seen as coming. Rumors even include China eventually backing their yuan currency with gold. Those who spread such stories should beware that a quantum jump in their currency exchange rate would cause two immediate effects. Their export business would be harmed badly. A rise versus the US$ but more stable exchange rate with the euro would preserve export potential to the European Union. Their import cost for raw materials and energy supplies would also drop in price. At some point, when their middle class grows even more, such a compromise might be welcomed.
   
   11. Islamic world is planning gold-centric international commerce, distancing from USDollar
   The Gold Dinar is openly discussed in the Islamic world. It is unsure whether Iran and Indonesia have followed through with stated plans to settle on trade with gold. Other bilateral agreements are either hatched or in the works. Some Arab nations are deeply in debt, such as Saudi Arabia (the #1 nation in per capita debt). Other Islamic nations and Arab emirates continue to sock away large surpluses annually. The Middle East continues to see strong gold demand. Whether a more formal gold-backed system of commercial settlement occurs among Islamic nations, in defiance of western standards, we will see.
   
   12. Bank for International Settlements has targeted the US dollar for a corrective decline
   Leaked internal reports indicated a desire to weaken, if not bring down, the Soviet Union back in the 1980 decade. They were seen by the BIS as a threat to world security. In the 1990 decade, similar reports indicated a desire to remove the unstable dynamic to the world economy owing to the uncontrollable growth in USDollar creation and its excessive appreciation. This is a shady organization, not corrupt, but rather secretive. The BIS serves as the central bank for all major central banks. They have tremendously powerful means to effect change, by restricting credit flow and managing large leveraged portfolios. It is reported that they would like to see a hard asset like gold more involved in the world monetary system. Little can be verified. So take this assessment as conjecture.
   
   13. reversal of miner hedges, end of gold leasing, reducing supply
   In the last 20 months, total gold miner hedge book forward contracts are reported to have declined by between 30% and 40%. Their contract buybacks continue, which might provide an ironic support to the gold price, offsetting the gold cartel assaults. As for gold leasing, it has not ended by all accounts; lease rates continue to be tiny. Skirmishes continue with members of the European Union. While small nations like Netherlands (I believe) expressed lost interest in gold sales, Germany and Switzerland continue the practice of gold dumping. It is unclear how much gold remains in Fort Knox. Actually, what remains of our national gold treasure is reportedly guarded at West Point.
   
   14. dismantled mining supply apparatus, from systemic price below production
   It still takes a long time to bring a revived mine into production. Fifteen years of neglect did not completely end in 2002, when gold reversed in price. In the last 20 months, numerous little gold companies, and many larger companies have opened shuttered mines. Many properties have made early steps toward returning to production, bringing permits up to date, hiring operators, obtaining funds, and completing environmental impact studies where required. A shortage of operators and equipment is reported in the field in Canada.
   
   15. paradox: high gold price leads to higher demand, and high price leads to lower supply
   This statement is hard to prove. Demand was nearly non-existent for gold at the autumn 2001 low. Demand is growing nowadays. Gold fever has come and gone, sure to return. In the last cycle, people were lined up around street corners in 1980 to purchase gold coins at the peak price. Expect the same this time, over several rounds of price jumps. Paradoxically, as the gold price rises, cash is taken out of gold miner operations to pay down forward contracts before they burn acidic holes in balance sheets. Gold reserves have not markedly increased in the last 20 months from new discovery. In fact, new deposits seem in most cases to be of low grade, with between 5 and 30 grams per ore ton. Despite a $140 rise off the gold low price, no acceleration in supply brought to market has occurred. My claim is that both demand and supply for gold are inelastic.
   
   16. trade tariff resumption discourages global trading village concept
   Trade friction has grown with numerous international court cases, and even more national court cases. The USA instituted a 2002 steel tariff on foreign imports, which was lifted last year. Europeans have cited several protected group items from the USA in violation, like jewelry. Recently, Asian shrimp and clothing were cited by our courts. Globalization brings with it severe price differences, job displacement, and undercurrent conflict. Given the shortages widely reported for steel and cement, and games played in
9. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2004 14:35

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   16. trade tariff resumption discourages global trading village concept
   Trade friction has grown with numerous international court cases, and even more national court cases. The USA instituted a 2002 steel tariff on foreign imports, which was lifted last year. Europeans have cited several protected group items from the USA in violation, like jewelry. Recently, Asian shrimp and clothing were cited by our courts. Globalization brings with it severe price differences, job displacement, and undercurrent conflict. Given the shortages widely reported for steel and cement, and games played in Chinese ports over soybeans, expect protectionist winds to blow hard and regularly. My expectation is for much wider trade war between China and the USA.
   
   17. USDollar correction to relieve the trade imbalance could result in a currency crisis
   The USDollar has declined about 40% versus the euro and almost 10% versus the yen in the last 20 months. The US trade gap has risen from the mid to upper $30 billion range. The new range is the mid to upper $40 billion level. In spring 2002, my prediction was made that the US$ would correct sharply, but the US trade gap would not improve, and might even widen. Doug Noland of Prudent Bear, in a recent credit report, claims monetary trouble not on the periphery, but in the core. Poorly qualified borrowers can easily find credit. Large retail purchases are easily financed with zero deals. International credit subsidies have created a systemic risk of currency crisis not evident in previous years. Massive federal deficits, massive current account deficits, unprecedented central bank intervention, these have rendered the world monetary system unstable and imbalanced. Forget the crappola from the Fed about flexibility advantages, which is denial at the extreme in rationalization of their incredible failure. A currency crisis is in the cards in the not too distant future.
   
   18. accelerating worldwide currency turbulence
   The number of days with over 100 basis point currency moves in the euro and yen are a commonly used measure of instability. Exact data is not at my disposal. To the currency observer in FOREX activity, it seems clear that the number of days with big moves described has steadily risen. Last week after a putrid July jobs report, all three (euro, yen, sterling) registered volatile uplift days, just like when the lousy June jobs report was released. Hardly a month passes without several days with 100-bpt movements. Last autumn, following the Qatar G-8 Meeting, currencies started flying, as ministers gave vague signals of consensus desire to see the US$ much lower. This past spring, big movements went counter-trend, as the US$ appreciated with strength at the time of the false favorable jobs growth reports. Currency volatility is much worse than in the recent past. They signal greater monetary earthquakes dead ahead, in much the same manner as smaller and more frequent tremors among the earth's tectonic plates.
   
   19. European currencies offer more attractive alternatives to USDollar, with Swiss Franc leading
   This claim is debatable really. The European Union has small federal deficits among its member nations, although we arrogant Americans like to insult and denigrate the old continent. They are stodgy and crusty, while we are insane and steroid-driven. The EU possesses a reported 15 times greater amount of gold to back their currency. The EuroBond offers typically a hefty premium over US Treasurys, of approximately 1%. Until the Spain terror incident at the Madrid train station, the EU was regarded as free from terrorist threat. The Swiss Franc, aka swissy, for a century was the primary reserve currency. It has risen with the euro, or perhaps the perspective should be that the new euro has risen with the more mature swissy. The gains in the euro and swissy have been around 22% and 18% respectively over the past 20 months. Look for the swissy to regain its premier status.
   
   20. the calendar date Sept 11th marked the turning point for USDollar in two critical years
   The World Trade Center attack was a critical event. The shock & awe attack of Baghdad was another critical event. The resignation of Treasury Secy O'Neil was a milestone event, after controversy over budgets, debt obligations, and deception of Congress on estimated Medicare Drug costs. Enormous surprises on trade gaps, budget deficits, and lackluster job growth continue to dot the calendars as the US$ weakens. The US balance of trade seems unfixable. After the glow of patriotism faded in the following months after the WTC attack, fundamentals behind the US Economic weakness came under the spotlight.
   
   21. rising costs from entire energy complex (crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline)
   Crude oil has risen 70% in the last 20 months. Attacks on pipelines, an unstable Saudi Arabia, labor disputes in other producing nations, legal warfare in Russia, all these stress the energy complex on the delivery side of the equation. Reports from energy experts concerning Arab lack of excess capacity contribute to the speculative interest. Simmons goes so far as to say that Saudi's largest oil fields are near exhaustion. Natural gas usually sees a price reduction in summertime, but not this year, even with the benefit of mild weather which has lessened air conditioning demand. Gasoline has ripped through the $2 barrier per gallon in many states. Attention has been drawn to energy systemically. Debate rages on impact to the economy and households.
   
   22. commodity trend reversal has begun, the beginning of a new long-term trend
   Since November 2002, copper has exploded in price (+70%), steel prices have tripled in certain products, lumber has doubled, and cement has risen 20%. More importantly, cement has gone critical with outright shortages, only to stall some large construction projects. Grains and soybeans are up more in the past year than in decades. Yes, a commodity trend reversal has not only begun, marking a new age of shortage. The long-term trend has become firmly established. Shortages are so acute, owing to China's development and Greece's Olympic venue construction, that trade war seems a greater likelihood with each passing month. The focus is likely to be on construction materials and food supplies. The gold versus USTNote has begun to signal a trend reversal as well, away from paper-based securities and toward hard asset investments.
   
   23. Kondratieff Winter is gathering speed and force
   Chairman Greenspan relished the opportunity to defend the world against a K-Wave winter. His wish is being granted. The Great Fed Reflation Initiative is a dismal failure, although such a view is hardly the consensus. Many destinations of expanded money supply are unproductive. New money has gone to greater debt and questionable housing speculation. The real economy inside the USA has taken on serious damage. Rising costs have encouraged increased job outsourcing to lower cost locations like Asia. The US Economy appears to be growing. However, the more accurate picture can be seen with the real economy, where manufacturing jobs were shed on a massive basis over 20 months, and only recently have shown any substantive gains, even if paltry. In 18 months ending in December 2003, western Pennsylvania lost a whopping 140 thousand jobs in the mfg sector. Mfg alone accounts for 19% of the US GDP. If one removes electrical power generation, the mfg sector accounts for roughly 10%.
10. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2004 14:36

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    23. Kondratieff Winter is gathering speed and force
    Chairman Greenspan relished the opportunity to defend the world against a K-Wave winter. His wish is being granted. The Great Fed Reflation Initiative is a dismal failure, although such a view is hardly the consensus. Many destinations of expanded money supply are unproductive. New money has gone to greater debt and questionable housing speculation. The real economy inside the USA has taken on serious damage. Rising costs have encouraged increased job outsourcing to lower cost locations like Asia. The US Economy appears to be growing. However, the more accurate picture can be seen with the real economy, where manufacturing jobs were shed on a massive basis over 20 months, and only recently have shown any substantive gains, even if paltry. In 18 months ending in December 2003, western Pennsylvania lost a whopping 140 thousand jobs in the mfg sector. Mfg alone accounts for 19% of the US GDP. If one removes electrical power generation, the mfg sector accounts for roughly 10%. Debt levels have grown in magnificent fashion, setting the stage for debt stress failure to come. Consumer debt has grown almost 7% since late 2002. The Chinese trade surplus with the USA has grown over the same time span by an even greater amount. New money either is devoted to debt burdens or shipped to Asia. Does anyone notice such a disastrous report card for the Fed Reflation project?
    
    24. divergence toward deflationary credit-based economy, inflationary cash-based economy
    Retail sales have begun to falter. Evidence lies with department stores, clothing outfits, restaurants, and automobiles. Credit offerings have remained attractive with eye-catching zero deals. Demand has faltered anyway. Pent-up demand is absent for cars and housing, and probably exhausted. Car sales have lagged badly, only to present Detroit with historically high inventories. In mid-July a reported 3.5 million unsold vehicles lined assembly plants, dealer lots, and rented mall parking lots. As the car sector goes, so goes the economy. Carmakers face production cuts or profit-eating incentives. The housing market continues strong in certain regions (e.g. California), while stalling in others, and retreating in many areas (e.g. Denver). The cash-based economy refers to markets for gasoline, crude oil, food products, construction materials, industrial metals, which are showing robust price appreciation. The trend for rising commodity prices is clear.
    
    25. the parallel between gold's rise in the 1970's and 2000's has many components
    The parallels are more clear now after 20 months. The last convincing piece was rising energy prices for comparison with the economy three decades ago. Rising production costs are obvious, in common with the 1970 decade. Talk of the possibility of stagflation has begun to hit the media publications and airwaves. Similarities are noticeable between gold's early stages of appreciation in the mid 1970's and in the last two years. The parallel is not perfect though, since China was not a principal trade component for either supply purchase nor export sales.
    
    (added)
    26. major gold producing nations are seeing production costs rise in dollar terms from domestic rising currency, which has resulted in sharply declining profit margins, and may force shutdowns in mine operations
    The key case in point has been South Africa, the home of the worst performing gold miner companies. Take a look at AngloGold, Harmony, Gold Fields, and Durban Deep. Their charts are flat to down, except for a strong AngloGold (AU). As a group, they have not kept pace with the HUI index rise. The South African Rand currency delivered a shock to SA producers, as it bounced back strongly after clear manipulation from major banks in previous years. The ZARand has regained its footing in the past year. The fallout has been higher production costs, a fly in the ointment to investors. Over a year ago, my analysis called for looking elsewhere from South Africa. Labor concerns and duplicity from marxist demands signaled trouble. My concerns were well placed on national purchase values on nationalization buyout, and community mandates levied against producers. As foreign gold producers attempt to ramp up gold mining operations, they must deal with a currency appreciation versus the USDollar. Australia and Canada have had to deal with the effect as well. Another ZARand runup could actually threaten gold production in the world's largest yellow metal mother lode region, South Africa. The irony is astounding. Imagine the world's grandest gold mining nation unable to turn a profit, due to currency translation, only made worse by political interference !!! VonMises should shake his head, and point to the vagaries of currency competition in a fiat world !!!
    
    (added)
    27. major smelters are seeing energy costs rise in dollar terms, as the cost of natural gas has increased, which has resulted in the shutdown of many large facilities
    Over a year ago, a large aluminum smelter shut down in Washington state, and moved operations abroad. They cited higher natural gas prices and costs generally. It takes a tremendous amount of energy to separate target metals like gold, copper, silver, from mineralized ore. Profit margins for miners suffer more cost damage than clean corporations which only require space heating and electricity. They use more energy than the majority of industrial plants beyond the steel niche. Smelting is very energy intensive. Refinery processes are also energy intensive, as coke cracking is far more complicated than the public realizes for the production of gasoline. Actual field drill operations for oil & gas require diesel power generators, whose costs have risen also.
    
    Jim Willie
    Aug 10, 2004
    
    Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER"
    website: Golden Jackass
    subscribe: Hat Trick Letter
    
    Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 23 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com.
    
11. [verwijderd] 12 augustus 2004 13:06

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    Doomed
    Richard Russell snippet
    Dow Theory Letters
    August 12, 2004
    
    Extracted from the August 11, 2004 edition of Richard's Remarks
    
    I do want to say something about gold. Gold is down five bucks this morning with December gold (again) below 400. Subscribers must look at gold as a long-term holding. In the end, the US is fated to drown in liabilities, and in the end the dollar will fall to the point where it will no longer be accepted as the world's reserve currency. But until then, the world, really the Asians, will "play the game" in which they will continues to accept and accumulate dollars.
    
    Why are they doing this? They're continuing to accept dollars because this process allows them to continue to sell their products to the US. Yes, it's a game. Yes, it can't go on forever. Yes, the US and the dollar will finally drown in liabilities. Yes, this is ultimately what the bear market is all about. And yes, there really seems to be nothing that will reverse this process.
    
    In other words, the US continues to build up liabilities and the rest of the world, mainly Asia, goes along with the game of accepting dollars. It's the biggest game in the world today. And ironically, the rise of Islamic fundamentals danger is used to justify the monumental spending path that the US is on. Iraq, I'm afraid, is just the beginning. The US has elected itself as "policeman to the world," and the rest of the world is only too happy to bestow that honor on us. After all, think of the money they save.
    
    The whole system is obviously doomed, but the world's politicians don't think in terms of "doom." Doom is in the future, and politicians are concerned with "now," and the next election.
    
    You want to leave your kids or grand-kids something of guaranteed value? Buy them gold coins -- don't leave them dollars in the bank. That's the true use of gold. When everything else comes into question -- only gold will be trusted. Thus it has been since the dawn of civilization.
    
    At present, in terms of Federal Reserve Notes (dollars), they're "giving gold away." It's a bargain -- IF YOU'RE WILLING TO WAIT.
    
    Big money loves cheap gold. The lower the dollar price of gold, the more gold they can accumulate with their irredeemable junk paper.
    
    Richard Russell
    Dow Theory Letters
    © Copyright 2004 Dow Theory Letters, Inc.
    
12. [verwijderd] 13 augustus 2004 20:00

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    The higher oil goes while the gold price
    stays down, the more apparent the central
    bank intervention in the gold market
    becomes....
    
    * * *
    
    Myra P. Saefong
    CBSMarketWatch.com
    Friday, August 13, 2004
    
    Crude oil futures surpassed $46 a barrel to mark
    a fresh historic high in New York with traders
    unwilling to sell ahead of a weekend packed with
    uncertainties related to violence in Iraq, a
    presidential recall election in Venezuela, and
    Russian oil company Yukos . September crude
    climbed as high as $46.04. It was last at $46.02,
    up 52 cents.
    
13. [verwijderd] 17 augustus 2004 10:47

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    Gold imports up 30% in April-June
    
    Press Trust of India / New Delhi August 16, 2004
    Gold imports into the country have jumped 30.7% in April-June this
    fiscal, the Rajya Sabha was informed today.
    
    "The quantity of gold imports in the first quarter of 2004-05 is
    202.55 tonnes as compared to 154.92 tonnes in the first quarter of the
    previous year," Minister of State for Commerce and Industry E V K S
    Elangovan said in a written reply.
    
    The major countries from where gold is imported are Switzerland, South
    Africa, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and United Kingdom.
14. [verwijderd] 18 augustus 2004 23:32

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    Zilver is weer on the run........
    
    een aardige aankoopsite www.24carat.co.uk/silverbullionbars.html
    
    The Very Highest Quality Silver Bars... zijn op deze europese site praktisch uitverkocht. Er gaan nu weer veel geruchten dat fysiek zilver maar ook goud moeilijker of niet te verkrijgen is.
    
    GP GATA GO GOLD GO SILVER
    
15. [verwijderd] 19 augustus 2004 08:23

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    van de voorpagina www.iex.nl/columns/columns_artikel.as...
    
    Go GATA GO GOLD GO SILVER
16. [verwijderd] 19 augustus 2004 14:11

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    Oil:gold ratio hits highest level this year
    Tim Wood
    '18-AUG-04 20:00'
    
    NEW YORK (Mineweb.com) -- Gold prices continue to lag the relative increase in oil prices pushing Tuesday’s ratio of the two prices to the highest level of the year and since August 1976. The ratio was 0.1177 before oil prices eased and the ratio fell back to 0.1151.
    
    In the last 35 years, the ratio has averaged 0.0667. However, since the start of this year the ratio has averaged 0.0952. The ratio range in 2004 is unprecedented – it has remained above the 35-year 70th percentile the whole year and above the 98th percentile since 29 July.
    
    The only precedent to recall is the period from May to November 2000 which produced an interim peak in oil prices and, shortly thereafter, the gold price began to rise. There was also a brief but less powerful peak between March and July 1982. The longest lasting period above the 98th percentile – where we are now – lasted from December 1975 to March 1977.
    
    The ratio hit an all-time high, based on monthly average prices, of 0.128 in August 1976. It hit an all-time low of 0.021 in June 1973.
    
    Oil prices rose again on Tuesday after the US Energy Department reported that domestic refinery capacity utilization rose as demand gasoline hit its highest levels this year. For the week ending last Friday, utilization stood at 95.8% compared with 94.7% the Friday before.
    
    American fuel stockpiles also declined according to the report though it was a modest 1.3 million barrels to 293 million barrels.
    
    Oil cartel OPEC is doing its best to talk down the oil price, obviously with little effect. OPEC spokesman Purnomo Yusgiantoro has forecast a 2005 price around $30 per barrel once the “Iraq premium” is removed.
    
    Given the historical record, it remains to be seen what impact high oil prices will have on inflation. So far there is no meaningful trace of inflation in the official statistics, but it is glaringly obvious in the rapidly escalating operating costs of mining companies.
    
    Consequently, gold bugs are keenly watching to see what unfolds in the coming months, keeping a firm eye on apparent parallels with the period after the 1973 oil shocks.
    
    It is also notable that the August average real oil price will exceed the previous record set in 1990. The last time oil prices matched Tuesday’s inflation adjusted price of $42.61 was back in November 1984. If oil hits $50 a barrel that would equal the inflation adjust price paid in March 1983. To match the all time record of $67.75 per barrel, current prices would have to rise 57% to $73.94 per barrel.
    
17. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2004 08:20

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    Argentinie koopt 42 ton goud in het eerste half jaar.
    
    BUENOS AIRES, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Argentina's Central Bank confirmed on Thursday that it bought 42 tonnes of gold in the first half of the year in its strategy to diversify reserves after the end of the peso's one-to-one peg against the dollar in early 2002.
    "We were positive about gold," a Central Bank official told Reuters on the condition of anonymity. "We thought that in this international context with a war going on and the price of oil going up, we were relatively positive in relation to gold."
    
    The official said gold now accounted for less than 3 percent of Argentina's total foreign reserves. A little more than 20 percent of reserves are now in non-dollar assets, which he considered a "reasonable" level.
    
    He said the Central Bank had not yet decided if it would accumulate more gold.
    
    "We are in this precise moment deciding the benchmark of the administration of reserves," the official said.
    
    
18. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2004 12:13

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    Bullish World Gold Council report
    Gareth Tredway
    '19-AUG-04 16:00'
    icms.iac.iafrica.com/pls/cms/iac.page...
    
    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Demand for gold, in the form of jewellery and private investment, jumped 10.5 percent in the quarter to end-June in comparison to the extraordinary, SARS affected quarter last year.
    
    More impressive is that the 743 tons purchased is 4.14 percent higher than the same period in 2002, even with a gold price averaging $50/oz higher than that period.
    
    “The rise in demand was fuelled by strong economic growth, relative absence of price volatility and continuing concerns over the long-term economic and political outlook,” said a statement in the World Gold Council’s (WGC’s) quarterly report.
    
    Gold traders do not seem to take much notice of the quarterly release, but analysts do seem to pay a bit more attention. “It is a very bullish report,” says James Steel, an analyst at Refco. “The quarter was as strong as the first despite the price being up.”
    
    Demand for the metal were up in nearly every region, except for one party-pooper, Europe that posted a decline in the quarter of 5 percent. According to the gold council, recently-hiked interest rates in the UK dampened consumer interest. Overall, 664 tons of gold for jewellery were purchased in the quarter, compared to 613 tons in the same period last year, and 637 tons the year before.
    
    The WGC took most of the credit. “We believe our promotional activities have clearly boosted demand in major markets such as Turkey, China and India,” said James Burton, WGC’s chief executive.
    
    Turkey continued to nibble at the two leading fabricators, Italy and India, increasing demand by 36 percent compared to last quarter, adding to its 38 percent year-on-year rise in the first.
    
    Retail investment, still only one-tenth of total demand, remained strong as 79 tons of gold were purchased in the quarter. This is the highest second quarter figure in five years, when the millennium bug drove demand higher.
    
    Institutions did not have the same sentiment and many are thought to have sold off, when prices were high. This sell-off was ‘noticeably less’ than the heavy purchasing in 2003, according to the WGC, “meaning many buyers have held on to their investment.”
    
    Supply of returned to similar levels as 639 tons came out of the mines, only 1.5 percent lower than last year, even with a bleeding South African gold industry that is suffering under rand gold price that has squeezed margins dry.
    
    The extra 29 tons supplied on last quarter, was more than consumed by the 33 tons in extra demand.
    
19. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2004 16:24

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    Goud breek door $ 410 heen.
20. [verwijderd] 22 augustus 2004 16:54

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    WSJ 20040820 silver balderdash
    
    By David Bond
    Editor, Silver Valley Mining Journal
    The Wallace Street Journal
    
    Wallace, Idaho – Here we go again. No sooner did silver start scratching at the door of $7.00 than the humdiddlers this Friday (West Coast time) morning breathlessly warned long-side "speculators" through a Reuters megaphone that they were marching like lemmings toward the proverbial cliff.
    
    The Silver Losers Association, funded by such fine and trustworthy entities as Eastman-Kodak, diamond-miner Tiffany’s and perennial silver-basher Mitsui, will no doubt be discovered to have been behind this latest insult to the intelligence of even someone from Reuters’ motor-pool. To quote (as Reuters did) Mitsui’s Andy Smith – who gleefully hollers "FIRE" every time a gold or silver bull shows up at the theatre – without soliciting a temperate countervailing point-of-view is rankly amateurish.
    
    Reuters’ Veronica Brown walked into a sucker-punch so ancient it’s funny, were it not flung with such force every time silver pokes its head above water: "Silver Speculators Sweat as Photo Demand Fades," reads the headline. And blah-blah-blah, to wit: "Speculators in silver are facing bigger risks as digital camera sales flourish and demand for the metal from photographic film makers fades, analysts said on Friday," the story leads.
    
    Really? We don’t see anyone on our side of the fence "sweating" as silver closed out the week at $6.85 – a gain of 5 cents and a mid-day peak hitting a four-month high. The only sweat we can smell is that forming on the brows of goofballs like Smith who’ve been telling the unwitting since God was in knickers that silver’s support is somewhere around the $1.10 an ounce level and that gold’s overpriced at $35. Why? Because of course if silver stays above $1.10 an ounce for more than a few minutes Kodak will find a substitute for it. Rochester was on the verge of replacing silver in film in the 1960s, the 1970s, the 1980s – or so the headlines promised. After all, at $50 an ounce, there was so much silver in a roll of Kodak film, and silver was so expensive, that the value of the silver in that roll of film skyrocketed to nearly one half of one cent.
    
    Digital is, of course, a mass-market substitute for silver-halide film that may very well drive the white metal from the photo business where image quality or the ability to enlarge the print beyond 5x7 inches is not a primary consideration. Demand for silver in photography has, as Reuters notes, dropped over the past seven years by a whopping 20 million ounces – about 10 percent of total photo demand. And no doubt it’s a trend that will continue – Agfa-Gevaert just sold its film-making division to its managers "due to the booming popularity of digital cameras."
    
    But so what? Nearly every single molecule of silver used in the manufacture of silver returns to the market as "scrap" when it’s recycled by the film processor. (Those who don’t remove every molecule of silver from their film in the stop bath, fixer and wash very quickly end up with solid black, utterly useless, negatives; those who don’t recycle said recovered silver are breaking the law – at least in the U.S.) So, once again, one for the road, once more for good measure, and shout it loud enough it can be heard in the cheap seats: SILVER IN PHOTOGRAPHY IS A ZERO-SUM GAME! One less ounce of photo film silver demand is one less ounce of silver supply. Conveniently absent from the shorts’ incessant jabbering is that industrial applications of silver are up 70 million ounces per year over the same time period – and industrial silver, that resides in your cell-phone or refrigerator or computer, and coats your skyscraper windows, never comes back to the market. If silver were to go to $100 we doubt anyone would see a Big Melt of glass or cellphones.
    
    Whew! Now that we’ve gotten that business over with, on to another interesting silver wrinkle. We’ve lately been Googling Tiffany in the wake of our discovery of their open-pit lake-rearranging diamond mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories. What popped up yesterday was this interesting missive from Dow Jones out of Tokyo: "Silver is key for Tiffany in Japan – Leeb Fund." Stephen Leeb says gold and platinum are slowly pricing themselves out of the reach of Japan’s jewelry mass-market – Tiffany’s second largest, behind only the U.S. – and that silver could nicely restore the New York jeweler’s sales and balance sheets which have of late tattered.
    
    "Japanese consumers looking for trinkets made from a ‘precious’ metal, but who don't have enough yen for gold and platinum, might just turn to silver. Leeb feels that Tiffany's Japan operations, which have placed an emphasis on marketing silver, is in a position to benefit from such a likely trend," Dow Jones’ Jim Hawe reported.
    
    Continued the article: "Leeb said in a recent interview with Dow Jones Newswires that silver could be the sleeper for turning around operations in Japan, because the precious metal is priced at historically low levels - meaning it will long be a viable jewelry option even as gold and platinum become too pricey for the average consumer.
    
    "Platinum is trading around $900/oz, almost three times its level just five years ago, and gold has recovered strongly from a low of around $250/oz in July 1999 to almost $430/oz earlier this year. Leeb noted that silver, on the other hand, is trading at a mere fraction of its record (1980) high."
    
    Hmmmmmmm. Well, Tiffany had better quit beating up on U.S. silver miners, then.
    
    And silver will no doubt, after a ride to $10 or so this time, take its third and final lump downward. And all the Silver Users’ horses and all the Silver Users’ men won’t be able to prevent the ensuing unstoppable rise. Oh, they’ll find another gullible reporter or two to cry "WOLF!" but the silver investor today is older, wiser, and patient. The shorts are out of bullets. The blanks they fired yesterday made lots of noise, but nobody’s ducking anymore.