Royal Bank Of Scotland Terug naar discussie overzicht

RBS week 43

1. benbelegger 22 oktober 2013 08:25

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   • benbelegger

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   Gisteren een sterke daling , toekomst wisselvallig:
   
   uit The Guardian:
   
   Despite markets continuing to move higher in the wake of the recent US debt deal, Royal Bank of Scotland was under the cosh once more.
   
   Its shares fell 19.6p or 5% to 353.1p amid growing talk the government would split it into a good and bad bank, with many in the City believing this could be to the detriment of minority shareholders. On top of that, the banking sector came under pressure after JP Morgan reportedly made a tentative $13bn settlement relating to bad mortgage loans sold before the 2008 crisis. Others may have to follow suit. Nomura said:
   
   We think it is becoming more likely that the good bank/bad bank review will result in significant change for RBS. A decision is said to be imminent in the next few weeks and several options are being considered: 1) setting up a bad bank inside RBS to be run by an independent team; 2) setting up a bad bank inside RBS, in a model similar to that of UBS, which had more support from the central bank; 3) the final option would be the taxpayer-backed bad bank for the assets, similar to the solution from the Swedish government in the 1990s. We continue to believe that minority shareholders have much to lose from an unfavourable outcome of the review with the government maintaining considerable leverage over the minorities.
   
   On the US mortgage securities, Nomura said there was a material risk for RBS:
   
   RBS was involved in the sale of around $32bn of the MBS securities under scrutiny (similar to JP Morgan's $33bn). The largest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) suit is in Connecticut courts rather than New York, where more of the harsher settlements have been imposed and losses on RBS portfolios experienced by the FHFA have been said to be lower. However, due to the legal uncertainties and the large settlements discussed by the press, we see this as a material tail risk to the group. Potential capital release from [the sale of US subsidiary] Citizens helps in this context to plug any holes, though we don't see it as a means to buy back shares.