SBM Offshore - off topic - juli 2015

1. [verwijderd] 1 juli 2015 00:31

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   corruptie-onderzoek tegen FPSO-bouwer Sevan Marine inzake Petrobras ;
   www.upstreamonline.com/live/1404575/s... .
   
2. Chela 1 juli 2015 22:35

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   quote:

   ff_relativeren schreef op 30 juni 2015 17:45:

   Het neerwaarts bijgestelde investeringsprogramma van Petrobras kan m.i. vertragende werking hebben op het offshore Libra-veld. Voor dit veld waren 12 FPSO's voorzien in de oude plannen.
   

   Er zijn meer details bekend geworden over de investeringsbeperkingen van Petrobras in de pre-salt lagen voor de Braziliaanse kust.
   Het Libra field waarvoor deze zomer een tender zou worden uitgeschreven wordt hierbij niet genoemd. De tender zelf ook niet overigens. De belangrijkste delen zijn geaccentueerd.
   
   16 hours and 59 minutes ago
   Petrobras details $76.5bn cut in investments
   
   By André Ramalho, Cláudia Schüffner and Rodrigo Polito | Brasília and Rio de Janeiro
   
   Eight platforms, three refineries, a petrochemical plant, a fertilizer factory and other smaller projects. This is the balance of the $76.5 billion cut that Petrobras announced, a 37% reduction of the planned investments in its 2015-2019 business plan. Petrobras CEO Aldemir Bendine was emphatic by saying the scenario has changed in the 16 months between one plan and the other.
   
   Mr. Bendine recalled that the previous plan was backed by scenarios for Brent prices and a very different exchange rate from today. The executive even admitted Petrobras took too much time to do its "homework”, something started by large companies in the sector, which now have leaner investments after the drop in oil prices in the second half of 2014.
   
   To achieve its deleveraging target, the state-owned oil company has put off a series of investments, including the Premium I and II refineries and the Petrochemical Complex of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Comperj), and buckled up on hiring new production units.
   
   Together, the projects left out from the plan or postponed accounted for a reduction of $34 billion in planned investments. They change not only the company’s production projections, but also plans to increase the offer of oil products by the end of the decade. This means Petrobras will produce less barrels and oil products than forecast.
   
   Petrobras’s main focus, the exploration and production unit, will also be the most affected by the investment cutbacks. In all, the new plan was cut by $76.5 billion, 65% of that coming from projects in Brazil.
   
   The state company announced that eight platforms planned to start operations by 2020 have their contracts on hold and are no longer in the company’s plans at the time. The list includes platforms of the pre-salt in Santos, such as Carcará (BM-S-8), Júpiter (BM-S-24) and Itapu (former Florim, in the so-called onerous assignment), as well as deepwater fields in Espírito Santo and Sergipe.
   
   In the Campos Basin, the Maromba and Espadarte platforms, as well as the revitalization of the Marlim field, are now also out of the radar in the 2015-2020 horizon, as well the operation of a unit in the Sul do Parque das Baleias field, in Espírito Santo.
   
   "This plan brings a very realistic project and focused primarily on financial viability. For now, the eight projects are not a priority anymore. They haven’t left [out of the company’s portfolio]. They just left the horizon until 2019. These are projects with a lower degree of maturity than those that were still present,” said Solange Guedes, Petrobras’s director of Exploration and Production, during a press conference on Monday.
   
   The removal of these eight platforms from the business plan and the delay in the start-up of the units already hired, such as replicating FPSOs (built in series) and onerous assignment rigs, will have a direct impact on the oil production curve. Petrobras expects to reach production of 2.8 million barrels/day in 2020, down 33%, or 1.4 million barrels a day, compared to the estimated for the 2014-2018 plan.
   
   In absolute figures, the new company’s plan in E&P in Brazil is $50.2 billion less than the previous one: there are $103.7 billion planned for the 2015-2019 period, compared to $153.9 billion 2014-2018.
   
   In the Downstream department, which accounts for 10% of the new business plan’s investments, the main absence was Comperj. The Petrobras board has already ruled out the construction of the petrochemical complex and has no date yet for the completion of the refining unit, which ended 2014 with 82% of the works already completed, according to the latest report of the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC).
   
   For Downstream director Jorge Celestino Ramos, the company plans to complete, by the end of 2018, the second train of the Northeast refinery (Rnest) and, by October 2017, the first phase of Comperj, which includes investments in central utilities (steam generating units and electricity, wastewater treatment and water) and infrastructure of natural gas processing units. "The part of the refinery is being redesigned, restructuring the business model so that we seek a partner to complete the work," Mr. Celestino Ramos said this week.
   
   In addition to the uncertainties on the completion of Comperj, there is also the cancellation of Premium refineries, in Ceará and Maranhão, which after repeated postponements over the past few years were removed from the company’s investment portfolio. Together, the two projects led the company to a R$ 2.7 billion write-off.
   
   Amid the reduction of investments in refining, the Brazilian market for oil products is likely to remain weak, despite the reduction in net imports from the current 300,000 barrels per day to 250,000 barrels per day by 2018.
   
   The ??Gas and Energy unit, accounting for 5% of the new business plan, also was not immune to cuts. Petrobras cancelled the construction of the Fertilizer Unit of Uberaba (Minas Gerais), which produces ammonia from natural gas.
   
   The cancellation of the unit may put aside also the Gasmig’s project to build a pipeline to the Triângulo Mineiro region. The project, intended to meet the demand of the fertilizer plant, had been being studied by the Minas Gerais government, which came to consider last year, during the administration of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), the privatization of the distributor. Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa even announced the intention to form a joint venture with Gasmig to build the pipeline work.
   
   www.valor.com.br/international/news/4...
3. Kopermans 2 juli 2015 08:06

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   Libra gaat door, investeringsstop vooral voor de acht boorplatformen die al waren afbesteld en voor raffinageactiviteiten. Afgezien van de Jupiter FPSO die begin 2015 was aangekondigd, kan dit meevallen voor de markt van SBM.
4. Chela 2 juli 2015 09:41

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   quote:

   Kopermans schreef op 2 juli 2015 08:06:

   .. kan dit meevallen voor de markt van SBM.
   

   Check.
5. Dutchtenor 2 juli 2015 10:44

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   Als het zo door gaat gaan we zo maar meemaken dat SBM niet meer het meest geshorte aandeel is. Kom op heren shorters, ga zo door!
6. Kopermans 2 juli 2015 14:18

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   En er is ook een voordeel aan de productiebeperking door Petrobras.
   
   The decrease of oil exports from Brazil and Iraq may cause the now-low prices of the commodity to suddenly rise. While the two countries are cutting back, this change could mean an increase in the scope of the U.S. shale industry.
   
   Forecasted additions, actual subtractions
   Both Brazil and Iraq were believed to be extending their oil output, adding over 2 million barrels per day by 2020 and by another 2.5 million bpd by 2025, the International Energy Agency reported. Instead the countries are lowering their standards. Although it may be quite a difference for Brazil and Iraq, many believe this change will alter the market for the better.
   
   "Demand will have its say but from a supply perspective it is hard not to believe the seeds of the next price spike are being sown today," said Deutsche Bank on June 30. (...)
   
   www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenerg...
7. Kopermans 2 juli 2015 15:34

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   Duidelijker kan het niet. Op basis van nieuwe info schrijft OffshoreMag:
   
   "The investment plan prioritizes oil exploration and production projects in Brazil, focusing on the presalt. For other business areas, investment will be largely limited to maintaining operations, and for projects related to offloading oil and natural gas."
   
   www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2015/07...
8. Kopermans 2 juli 2015 19:55

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   Ook deze week enkele rigs extra, in VS en Canada.
   
   BHI Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 862 rigs
   
   U.S. Rig Count is up 3 rigs from last week to 862, with oil rigs up 12 to 640, gas rigs down 9 to 219, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.
   U.S. Rig Count is down 1012 rigs from last year at 1874, with oil rigs down 922, gas rigs down 92, and miscellaneous rigs up 2.
   The U.S. Offshore rig count is 29, up 1 rig from last week, and down 25 rigs year over year.
   
   BHI Rig Count: Canada +4 to 139 rigs
   
   Canadian Rig Count is up 4 rigs from last week to 139 rigs, with oil rigs down 4 to 72, and gas rigs up 8 to 67.
   Canadian Rig Count is down 170 rigs from last year at 309, with oil rigs down 118, and gas rigs down 52.
   
   The NA Rig Count is being distributed today due to the US Independence Day holiday on July 3.
9. [verwijderd] 3 juli 2015 11:35

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   www.upstreamonline.com/live/1404998/p...
   
   Brazil’s state-run Petrobras has reached a deal to sell off its interest in the Bijupira and Salema fields to compatriot PetroRio.
10. [verwijderd] 3 juli 2015 12:36

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    het businessplan Petro komt in kleine stukjes naar buiten..
    
    Drastic measures: Petrobras chief executive Aldemir Bendine
    
    Reuters/Scanpix
    
    Share story
    Contact us
    
    By Fabio Palmigiani Rio de Janeiro
    
    03 July 2015 00:00 GMT
    Five-year timeline sees Brazilian giant revise schedules and reduce number of systems to come into operation by the end of the decade by 10, with 21 still to be brought on stream
    
    www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/news/...
11. [verwijderd] 3 juli 2015 12:43

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    quote:

    Kopermans schreef op 2 juli 2015 14:18:

    En er is ook een voordeel aan de productiebeperking door Petrobras.
    
    The decrease of oil exports from Brazil and Iraq may cause the now-low prices of the commodity to suddenly rise. While the two countries are cutting back, this change could mean an increase in the scope of the U.S. shale industry.
    
    Forecasted additions, actual subtractions
    Both Brazil and Iraq were believed to be extending their oil output, adding over 2 million barrels per day by 2020 and by another 2.5 million bpd by 2025, the International Energy Agency reported. Instead the countries are lowering their standards. Although it may be quite a difference for Brazil and Iraq, many believe this change will alter the market for the better.
    
    "Demand will have its say but from a supply perspective it is hard not to believe the seeds of the next price spike are being sown today," said Deutsche Bank on June 30. (...)
    
    www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenerg...
    

    iran is bijna van zijn embargo af en gaat , denk ik, een harde klap aan de prijs geven. nu uitstel deadline nuclaire gesprekken VS en 6 kernmachten met Iran t/m 7 juli
12. [verwijderd] 6 juli 2015 20:55

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    Technip plans 6000 layoffs
    
    pats: afgelopen winter 5% nu >15% personeel weg
    
    www.upstreamonline.com/live/1405285/t...
    
13. [verwijderd] 6 juli 2015 23:49

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    mijn hele plannetje is kaput. oorzaak: slome 9een hoofzonde toch) Bendine.
    :-( :-)
14. Kopermans 8 juli 2015 08:56

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    Erg gunstige verwachtingen voor Petrobras en andere Amerikaanse majors.
    
    "Barclays’ Paul Cheng predicts all 10 Americas-based oil majors - XOM, CVX, COP, HES, MUR, SU, CVE, IMO, OTCPK:HUSKF, PBR - will beat earnings forecasts, benefiting from strong downstream and chemical performances as well as better than expected production volumes and a lower operating cost environment.
    Cheng estimates the oil majors will exceed the current EPS consensus by a median of 30% while the refiners will beat by 9%."
    
    seekingalpha.com/news/2616915-america...
15. marcel13 8 juli 2015 09:27

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    KBC Securities Beurs bij 't Ontbijt 08/07/2015
    -
    analist Dirk Verbiesen heeft
    SBMO
    nog eens van naderbij bekeken en het koopadvies bevestigd met een
    koersdoel van 16,5 euro. De zichtbaarheid blijft zwak, maar volgens de KBCS analist heeft de groep de huidige moeilijke
    marktomstandigheden met de juiste maatregelen het hoofd geboden.
    
    data.kbcsecurities.be/40/40/200/13151...
16. gpjf 8 juli 2015 09:31

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    quote:

    marcel13 schreef op 8 juli 2015 09:27:

    KBC Securities Beurs bij 't Ontbijt 08/07/2015
    -
    analist Dirk Verbiesen heeft
    SBMO
    nog eens van naderbij bekeken en het koopadvies bevestigd met een
    koersdoel van 16,5 euro. De zichtbaarheid blijft zwak, maar volgens de KBCS analist heeft de groep de huidige moeilijke
    marktomstandigheden met de juiste maatregelen het hoofd geboden.
    
    data.kbcsecurities.be/40/40/200/13151...
    

    Zouden hun belangen ook zo groot zijn als die van mij ( relatief gezien natuurlijk) ?
17. Chela 8 juli 2015 13:17

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    quote:

    Kopermans schreef op 8 juli 2015 12:52:

    [...]
    Check! Indische kasseien :-)
    

    Dat dacht ik al!
    www.demorgen.be/binnenland/gentse-kas...
18. Independent trader 8 juli 2015 14:11

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    SBM heeft het zo gek nog niet gezien met focus op Brazilie:
    
    www.telegraaf.nl/dft/bedrijven/royal_...
19. Kopermans 8 juli 2015 16:34

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    En ze zitten op de eerste rij als Petrobras belangen gaat verkopen.
    Dat kan niet slecht zijn :-)
20. [verwijderd] 8 juli 2015 21:16

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    Olievoorraden zijn onverwacht gestegen.
    
    "We were not supposed to be building crude inventories in early July. This tells me the data will be additive to the macro-based selloff and perhaps make it worse," said David Thompson, executive vice-president at Powerhouse, an energy-specialized commodities broker in Washington.
    
    bron : www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/08/us... .