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Japan is weer terug

1. [verwijderd] 5 oktober 2005 22:40

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   MARKET OUTLOOK: Markets should stay bullish in FY05
   
   KEIJI OTAKE, MAKOTO TAKAHASHI and AKIKO SUGIMOTO
   Staff writers
   
   Stock prices are marking four-year highs on expectations that the Japanese economy will finally escape deflation. Most market analysts expect the Nikkei Stock Average to test higher levels up to 15,000 in the second half of fiscal 2005 through March 2006, fueled mainly by buying from foreign investors.
   
   While some see soaring crude oil prices and the U.S. and Chinese economies as lingering concerns, there are strong expectations that companies will upgrade their earnings estimates for fiscal 2005.
   
   The yen is expected to turn stronger early next year after weakening until the end of 2005, while long-term interest rates are likely to inch up on growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will end its quantitative easing of credit.
   
   Nikkei average to test above 14,000
   
   The stock market will likely maintain its upward mobility in the second half while undergoing mild correction phases. Most analysts expect Japanese stocks to remain popular with investors amid expectations for a real expansion of the economy, with the Nikkei average testing levels above 14,000 late in fiscal 2005.
   
   Listed firms now estimate a 2.3% rise in fiscal 2005 group pretax profit, but the market overwhelmingly expects them to upgrade their fiscal 2005 earnings projections in their September midterm announcements.
   
   As a result of the recent surge, the average price of shares listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange has risen to 19.8 times projected earnings, compared with a price-earnings ratio forecast of 16 for U.S. stocks. But "if earnings are upgraded, the PE ratio will drop, and there will likely be room again for share prices to rise," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi Securities Co.
   
   Upward revisions in earnings projections are expected for the steel, nonferrous, trading house and petroleum sectors, which have all benefited from higher material prices, and for the banking and real estate sectors, reflecting expectations that deflation will end soon.
   
   Yen expected to gain strength next year
   
   Dollar buying and yen selling will likely continue to progress as market participants anticipate continued rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, with the greenback gaining the 115 yen level by the end of the year.
   
   The currency market is factoring in at least another round of more Fed rate hikes within the year, and demand for dollars remains strong in light of the widening rate spread between Japan and the U.S. Some also say the dollar is being buoyed by a special 2005 corporate tax break for U.S. firms repatriating overseas profits.
   
   But early next year, many say speculation about the Bank of Japan ending its quantitative monetary easing policy will trigger the purchase of yen and sale of dollars. The U.S. is facing inflationary concerns, while unease is spreading regarding the adverse repercussions of damage from Hurricane Katrina and high crude oil prices.
   
   When the key U.S. policy rate reaches 4% - considered a neutral level - demand for dollars may weaken as market participants start to anticipate a halt to Fed rate hikes.
   
   With Japanese firms likely to sell dollars toward the fiscal year-end next March, some predict the dollar will weaken to around the 105 yen level.
   
   Long-term rates may rise at year-end
   
   Long-term interest rates are expected to search for room to climb within a narrow range during the second half of fiscal 2005.
   
   Until now, the factor that has dampened the increase in long-term interest rates despite the stock price surges has been the robust demand underpinning the market amid large amounts of government bond redemptions.
   
   Because the factors supporting the supply-demand conditions will disappear in October, many market participants share the view expressed by Jun Ishii, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi Securities Co., that "if stocks continue to rise, many investors will sell their bonds."
   
   As the market, dominated by supply-demand factors, takes a breather, investors are poised to focus on such economic fundamentals as consumer prices and the economy. A factor attracting attention is the timing of the upturn in the core consumer price index excluding fresh produce over the previous year, a condition for the Bank of Japan to end its monetary easing policy. Some market players expect it by November-December at the earliest. As the market gradually factors in an end to monetary easing, long-term interest rates may start rising at the end of the year.
2. [verwijderd] 5 oktober 2005 22:56

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   Panelists See Economy Recovering On Strong Domestic Demand
   
   TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japan's economic growth will pick up pace as capital outlays, consumer spending, and other areas of domestic demand steadily increase, according to most panelists at an economic forum held Wednesday by Nihon Keizai Shimbun Inc. and the Japan Center for Economic Research.
   
   The panelists were Toshiba Corp. Chairman Tadashi Okamura; Nobuyuki Saji, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Co.; Susumu Takahashi, director general in charge of policy coordination at the Cabinet Office; and Japan Center for Economic Research President Mitsuhiro Fukao.
   
   Excerpts from the forum follow.
   
   Q: What are your assessments of the economy?
   
   Takahashi: The economy has broken out of its soft patch and is recovering at a moderate pace. The output corrections in the information technology sector are almost over, and exports, particularly those to other Asian markets, have started picking up. The improvement in the corporate sector is spilling over to the household sector, and this is leading the recovery in domestic demand.
   
   Okamura: Global chip production moved into positive territory in August with a 3.2% month-on-month increase, and output is being boosted for the year-end shopping season now that inventory reductions are over. Price declines in digital products, however, have not end.
   
   Saji: A long-term economic expansion is just beginning. Even if inventory corrections occur every three years, the economy stands to expand over a period of five to 10 years. Japan's economy tends to be strong when oil prices surge, as seen 25 years ago. Automation stemming from the lack of skilled workers is helping to boost capital spending.
   
   Fukao: I'm not optimistic. Corporate earnings were boosted in response to recent natural disasters, and are already peaking because of higher oil prices. The rate of capital spending growth will also slow down. Tax hikes will cause consumer spending this year through March to fall by about 1 trillion yen.
   
   Q: What are risk factors for the economy?
   
   Takahashi: Oil prices, obviously. Should oil prices stay high, earnings at some industries will be hit harder than others. And if economic growth in the U.S. and China slows down faster than anticipated, this will hurt Japan's exports. The major hurricanes have dampened U.S. consumer sentiment, and this may impact the booming housing industry there.
   
   Okamura: I agree that the hurricanes will temporarily slow down U.S. economic growth, but I also see demand for reconstruction helping to invigorate the year-end shopping season. With China's imports slowing down due to the oil surge, how that country's domestic demand will change may determine the production and sales trends.
   
   Saji: Funds are flowing from Asia and oil-rich nations in the Middle East into the U.S., which is saddled with a huge current-account deficit. But this balance may deteriorate if European demand for funds grows to send interest rates higher worldwide, because this could trigger a turmoil similar to the 1997 financial crisis in Asia.
   
   Fukao: One major risk is the fact that China's foreign reserves, which are mostly in dollars, have swollen to almost half that economy's gross domestic product. A 10% upward revaluation of the yuan will reduce the ratio of China's foreign reserves to its GDP by 5 percentage points.
   
   The yuan needs to be revalued 10% upward against the dollar. But if Beijing's foreign reserves get built up more, this will increase the likelihood that its future losses will soar. This will threaten the money flow from China that is holding down long-term interest rates in the U.S.
   
   Q: What are your views on prices and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy?
   
   Saji: Given that the consumer price index will likely move into positive territory soon, the target balance of current accounts deposited at the central bank can be lowered from around February. But the zero interest rate policy should remain in place until at least the January-March quarter of 2007.
   
   Fukao: The CPI will likely turn into positive territory toward year-end, but it still faces the risk of returning to negative territory until after mid-2006. During this period, the central bank should not move to end its quantitative easing policy.
   
   Okamura: Electronics prices are falling rapidly due to global competition, and this situation is expected to remain the same for the next year or two. The CPI may start increasing on the year due to higher oil prices, but the central bank should take a cautious stance in determining the timing for ending its quantitative easing policy.
   
   (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Thursday morning edition)
3. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 02:35

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   quote:

   satch999 schreef:

   [quote=The artist]
   Een van de vele basissen op de beurs is geduld geduld geduld.
   [/quote]
   
   Waarheid als een koe Artist.
   Dat geduld moet ik vooral nu maar veel hebben...
   
   Satch
   

   die koe zal lachen.
   
   The Artist
4. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 03:25

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   Japan is inderdaad een stuk terug, 1,7% wel te verstaan. Hup Nikkei hup, laat onze Leeuw niet in zijn hempie staan :-)
5. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 04:28

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   2,16% van de Nikkei af.....de beren zijn los :-(
6. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 08:42

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   Het is belangrijk (voor mij) dat de 12.500 het houdt.
   
7. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 08:55

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   Toch een goed column van Erem..
   
   Na het zuur komt het zoet, dat kennen ze ook in Japan neem ik aan?
   
   Steunniveau's 13200, 12700, 12200
   
   Mvg,
   
   Ralph
   
   PS: tijdelijk in de puts?
8. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 10:04

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   Ook voor mij!
9. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 10:14

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   FF een verliesje en daarna komt het verfrissende briesje!
10. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 10:19

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    Ben toch maar weer uitgestapt (de Nikkei zal dus wel weer omhoog knallen komende dagen). Stap ik eventueel wel op 12500 weer in. Maar ik zal voor jullie duimen dat het niet zover komt.
    
    Ik heb ergens gehoord dat de AEX calls komende dagen in de uitverkoop zijn. Soms wel meer dan 50% korting!! Dan weten jullie waar ik te vinden ben met mijn Japanse yennen.
    
    Mvg,
    
    Ralph
11. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 10:42

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    quote:

    RalphDeBeer schreef:

    Ben toch maar weer uitgestapt (de Nikkei zal dus wel weer omhoog knallen komende dagen). Stap ik eventueel wel op 12500 weer in. Maar ik zal voor jullie duimen dat het niet zover komt.
    
    Ik heb ergens gehoord dat de AEX calls komende dagen in de uitverkoop zijn. Soms wel meer dan 50% korting!! Dan weten jullie waar ik te vinden ben met mijn Japanse yennen.
    
    Mvg,
    
    Ralph
    

    Ik ben vandaag ook uitgestapt met winst,ik had zowat een kleine nieuwe auto in de Japanse warrants en die verspeel ik niet graag.Straks is het Japan is terug alleen dan de verkeerde kant weer uit.Ik kan het ook mis hebben maar ja de pijn van verlies is erger dan de vreugde van winst.
12. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 10:54

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    Ik heb weer bijgekocht! Doe nu eindelijk eens een keer dat wat anderen niet doen wellicht helpt het! Turbo's doe your job!
13. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 11:20

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    Laat het nou zo zijn dat we vannacht nog een keer dalen...daarna gaat het echt weer up! Dat voel ik gewoon aan mijn water!...Hoop ik hahaha!
14. jrxs4all 6 oktober 2005 11:21

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    Ik wacht even af wat Wall Street doet vanmiddag, zakt dat verder dan gaan de Nikkei longs eruit voor shorts,
    
    JR
15. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 11:22

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    quote:

    Banting66 schreef:

    Laat het nou zo zijn dat we vannacht nog een keer dalen...daarna gaat het echt weer up! Dat voel ik gewoon aan mijn water!...Hoop ik hahaha!
    

    Laat die daling dan fors zijn dan stap ik weer in.
16. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 11:55

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    - 330.38 vind ik fors.
    Dus dan kunnen we dus vlgs jou weer up.
    MHM
    
    www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/
17. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 11:55

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    Stocks: End Down; Nikkei Posts 2nd-Biggest Drop This Year
    
    TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Tokyo stocks plunged Thursday, with the major indexes marking their second-biggest declines this year, as investors fled for cover after U.S. markets took a beating from weak data and warnings of looming inflation.
    
    A big sell-off on Wall Street overnight cast a dark mood over Tokyo. Investors opted to lock in profits on speculative gains in Japanese stocks in recent weeks, prompted by concerns that a weaker U.S. economy and rates hikes by a U.S. Federal Reserve keen to keep inflation in check may weaken demand in Japan's key export market.
    
    "The strength of the profit-taking today suggests we could be under more of a stronger correction cloud than we thought; my feeling is the market isn't sure of itself after having risen so quickly," said Mike Newman, head of equity sales at HSBC Securities in Tokyo.
    
    The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 330.38 points, or 2.4%, to 13359.51 following a 48.95-point fall Wednesday. That was the second-biggest point decline this year.
    
    The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues fell 38.30 points, or 2.7%, to 1371.37, also marking its second-largest point drop this year.
    
    With Japanese stocks looking increasingly burnt-out after their recent meteoric gains, no sectors escaped the sell-off. The biggest victims of profit-taking though were sectors that had recorded heady gains over the past few sessions. Banks, oil, consumer electronics and marine transportation stocks all retreated heavily.
    
    Major banks bore the brunt of the losses in the banking sector after their spectacular run over the past few weeks. The newly formed Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 4.3% to Y1.34 million. Mizuho, Japan's second-largest bank, dropped 5.7% to finish at Y661,000.
    
    Consumer electronics were also dragged lower after having only just staged a rally a few days ago on hopes the laggard sector could generate new momentum. Canon tumbled 4.6% to end down at Y6,030 and NEC shed 3.8% to close out at Y637.
    
    Among the day's few winners was Fuji Heavy Industries, which defied today's plummet and rose a spectacular 19% after Toyota agreed to purchase an 8.7% stake in the company from General Motors. The magic though didn't rub off onto Toyota, which fell 2.9% to Y5,100.
    
    Volume on the TSE First Section was estimated at 2.816 billion shares, down from 2.952 billion shares Wednesday.
    
    On the TSE's First Section, 1,502 issues fell, 121 issues rose, and 34 were unchanged from yesterday.
    
    
18. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 12:55

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    MHM ik moet je eerlijk zeggen ik weet het even niet meer....ben net toch uitgestapt uit de turbo's...neem het verlies en wacht even af...wellicht een short op de AEX want die kan nu wel even down in mijn ogen maar Japan gaat up alleen nu niet of wel...ik red mezelf even..
19. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 13:01

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    Ik hou alles vast. Japan ook. Mijn calls 460 mrt 2006 ook want de prijs staat nog steeds boven mijn aanschafprijs....
    Maarja, ieder zijn methode.
    Als ik wat zou doen dan is het turbos short erbij voor heel even Japan....
    Maar de longs hou ik gewoon....
    Suc6
20. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 13:09

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    Ik begrijp jou ook, maar op het moment dat ik twijfel stap ik eruit! En die twijfel is er nu! Ik denk namelijk dat uiteindelijk de Nikkei zeker gaat stijgen maar nu nog niet...even terug en dan weer up en dat geldt zeer zeker voor de AEX! Veel succes ik duim voor je!