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Goud/Zilver/Platina/Palladium Deel 5.

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  1. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 13:19

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    ja, maar kan ook de laatste stuiptrekking naar boven zijn brj... Daarna klaptie naar de 200 :-(
    Dan ben jij de gelukkige....
    we zien wel... sterkte...
    MHM
  2. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 13:21

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    Gold Market Manipulators are Going to Try to Manufacture a Sell-OffBy: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - The Daily Reckoning
    -- Posted Wednesday, 5 July 2006 July 4, 2006 -- My hands were shaking as I looked for the latest report of Federal Reserve data, especially Total Fed Credit. This is always an awkward moment for me, as I know that I am going to hate the news, no matter what it is. And my family hates it, too, and that is why they lock themselves in the bathroom in anxious anticipation of this very moment. If Total Fed Credit is up, then I am angry that the Fed is creating more inflationary credit in the banks. If Total Fed Credit is down, on the other hand, I am not happy either, since this means that credit is NOT being created, which means more money won't be created, which is (as we professional economists refer to it in our scholarly research papers), The Big Freaking Bloodthirsty Horseman Of The Economic Apocalypse (TBFBHOTEA) when you are operating (as we do) a Ponzi economy (financed by inflation in money, prices and debt) and a Ponzi system of governments (financed by increasing debt, size, taxes and spending), based on a derivative currency (electronic digits) that is, in itself, based on a mere fiat/paper currency, with a banking system that allows itself an infinitely low reserve ratio (zero retained cash on hand as reserves against additional deposits or loans). This brings up the embarrassing fact that in last week's exciting issue of the Mogambo Guru, I made a Big Mogambo Mistake (BMM) as was tactfully pointed out by several readers, which was (as embarrassing as it was), actually a delightful change of pace from the usual emails from readers (e.g. "You're stupid! I hate you!"). Well, what was this big mistake? I inadvertently used figures for loans and deposits of NY banks, and not the total for US banks. The real figures, in December 1996, are bank credit was $2,769 billion, and savings was $2,214 billion. Now, in the here-and-now, July 2006, loans and leases are $5,738 billion and savings is $5,457 billion. The interesting thing, which was (and is) the whole point, is that also in December 1996, Required Reserves were $48,935 million. Today, ten years later, and with twice as much loans and twice as much deposits in the banks, Required Reserves are only $44,139 million, down about five billion bucks! This means that every dime of debt and money created by the banks for the last ten years was literally created out of thin air, as there is no fractional-reserve backing (in cash) as a rainy-day fund for one thin dime's worth of the doubling of loans created, or the liability created by doubling of deposits! Zero reserves! In fact, reserves are about 10% less than they were ten years ago! But this is not about how I make mistakes due to chronic laziness, inattention to details or slovenly work habits, but about Total Fed Credit and how it creates the credit, which creates the debt, which creates the money, that creates the bubbles. And not only bubbles, but actual spending cash, as we learn from Stephen Church of Piscatasquaresearch.com in his essay at PrudentBear.com entitled "Consumer Crunch Update". He writes that "The latest 2005 economic statistics show that consumers depended on new debt for more than 90% of their cash flow during 2005. Most new consumer cash flow now comes from new debt." Intrigued, I urge him to go on, which he does by saying "Consumer liquidity has resumed its downward trend. Liquidity has fallen to 3 weeks of funds on our preferred measure. Consumer money supply now flows backward." I'm thinking to myself, "Hmmm! I wonder what this 'money supply now flows backward' thing means? And, more importantly, will I have to do actual work to find out?" Luckily, he immediately went on to explain "Historically, household incomes were sufficient to generate a cash surplus after consumption and debt service. Now, households have a large cash deficit." But I have stalled looking at Total Fed Credit long enough that, out of the corner of my eye, I can see that my wife and family are timidly peeking around the bathroom door, wondering if it is safe to come out. With a chuckle I fire off a couple of quick shots from my .45 ACP out through the window. They immediately duck back inside, slamming and locking the door, and I can hear them praying to Jesus to protect them. That ought to hold them for another twenty minutes or so. So imagine my conflicting emotions upon seeing that Total Fed Credit was actually DOWN by $1.1 billion last week. I look at the chart. I note that in 2000, Total Fed Credit, astonishingly, also stopping growing, admittedly for a little longer time than this. But it caused the stock market to crash, and the S&P500 lost about half its value over the next couple of years. And there have been a couple of other short times since 2000 when Total Fed Credit stopped growing, and the stock market was not pleased, but it did not actually crash. Mostly because, I assume, all the other central banks and "investors" were taking up the slack But things are a lot different now, and there is a growing consensus that global liquidity may be drying up, just like it seems to be doing in our own Federal Reserve. So, if you have forgotten The Infallible Mogambo Market Indicator (TIMMI), it is that if Total Fed Credit is going up and keeps going up, then stocks and the economy will go up. If Total Fed Credit is not going up and keeps not going up, then stocks will not go up. They will, instead, go down, just like everything else when money is withdrawn from any overheated, highly inflated, grossly overvalued, monstrously over-indebted market. Now combine that Classic Mogambo Sign (CMS) with the dismal fact that the Fed only bought up a miniscule $52 million in government debt last week. And then combine that with the ugly fact that foreign central banks only put a stinking, piddly $830 million into buying more U.S. government and agency debt. Money is suddenly disappearing, and this is not good for stock prices, or housing prices, or my wife's natural homicidal belligerence towards me when she realizes that some of her money has, likewise, disappeared from her purse because she stupidly left it unguarded on the hall table. I mean, I was just standing there. I see the purse. I see she is nowhere around. I notice that neither she nor my tattletale daughter can see me. I have no impulse control. So who is the REAL victim here? But this is not about what my wife believes versus what she can prove, but about how the lack of new money means that the Ponzi stock market, and the Ponzi bond market, and the Ponzi real estate market, and the Ponzi government program market are going to be too, too, too starved for funds to continue rising in price. Except gold, which will soar when people (by which I mean those whose retirement funds were stupidly entrusted to these markets) will be panicky and desperate to make up for their losses as they realize that all their other stupidly-inflated stock assets, and stupidly-inflated bond assets, and stupidly-inflated real estate assets are almost all destined to fall mightily in price from their current hugely inflated prices. And everyone will look around for someplace safe to put their money, and they will eventually look at gold and silver, and they will discover, just as all other people have discovered through time and space, that there is no other asset tha
  3. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 13:23

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    quote:

    MoneyHoneyMaker schreef:

    ja, maar kan ook de laatste stuiptrekking naar boven zijn brj... Daarna klaptie naar de 200 :-(
    Dan ben jij de gelukkige....
    we zien wel... sterkte...
    MHM
    Ja bedankt MHM, en jij ook natuurlijk...
    Ik heb er nog 500 bijgekocht a 0,99.
  4. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 13:26

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    quote:

    brj schreef:

    Ik heb er nog 500 bijgekocht a 0,99.
    idd, dat maakt dan ook niet meer zoveel uit als het fout gaat... Die strategie heb ik ook vaak toegepast...

    EDIT: Wauw wat een lappen tekst hierboven...
    Moraal van het verhaal :-)
    (niemand weet het echt)
    MHM
  6. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 13:36

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    quote:

    brj schreef:

    [quote=MoneyHoneyMaker]
    ja, maar kan ook de laatste stuiptrekking naar boven zijn brj... Daarna klaptie naar de 200 :-(
    Dan ben jij de gelukkige....
    we zien wel... sterkte...
    MHM
    [/quote]
    Ja bedankt MHM, en jij ook natuurlijk...
    Ik heb er nog 500 bijgekocht a 0,99.
    inmiddels kocht er nog iemand 1000 zie ik. Wordt dikke handel :-)
    Maar écht beweging up of down zit er niet in, mijn voorlopige conclusie nóg wat hoger TL verkopen, en dan alsnog short.
  10. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 13:56

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    quote:

    pensionado1 schreef:

    1000 speedjes gekocht op 0,93."Nowbody knows the trouble i've seen."
    Kunnen we samen huilen of.....een feestje bouwen.
    In geval van het laatste ben je van harte welkom MHM
  14. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 18:26

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    Het gaat nu wel hard omhoog, bijna loodrecht...

    Ik zit inmiddels weer in alle 4 edelmetalen, hopen dat palladium inderdaad een inhaalrace gaat maken, heb een aantal met SL 280 en een aantal met SL 248.

    Greetz,

    Spaghetto
  16. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 18:54

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    Ach Gierigaard911, jouw tijd komt nog wel.
    Voorlopig gaat het idd goed, maarja als ik morgen wakker wordt kan het wel weer allemaal anders zijn. En wat mij dan opvalt; dan praat iedereen opeens weer anders, alsof het heel logisch is dat het zo is gegaan.
    Over in- en uitstappen: je moet het gewoon een keer doen en 's keer een mzzl hebben. Ik sta nog steeds over mijn geheel dit jaar verlies (ik treedt (nu) niet in details hierover)
    S6
    MHM
  17. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 18:58

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    640 is zowat het 50%pullback niveau sinds de daling op ongeveer 540 is gestopt

    als we door 640 gaan,is 660 het koersdoel,zoniet dalen we vanaf 640
  18. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 18:58

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    640 is zowat het 50%pullback niveau sinds de daling op ongeveer 540 is gestopt

    als we door 640 gaan,is 660 het koersdoel,zoniet dalen we vanaf 640
  19. [verwijderd] 11 juli 2006 19:09

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    Dit is m.i. niet zomaar wat kopen op dips zoals Reuters zegt. Er zal wel weer iets met rente/dollar zijn en de hedgefondsen die hierop inspelen. Never trust a hedgefund.
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Aalberts 466 7.018
AB InBev 2 5.501
Abionyx Pharma 2 29
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ABN AMRO 1.582 51.676
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Agfa-Gevaert 14 2.050
Ahold 3.538 74.339
Air France - KLM 1.025 35.047
AIRBUS 1 12
Airspray 511 1.258
Akka Technologies 1 18
AkzoNobel 467 13.041
Alfen 16 24.858
Allfunds Group 4 1.473
Almunda Professionals (vh Novisource) 651 4.251
Alpha Pro Tech 1 17
Alphabet Inc. 1 406
Altice 106 51.198
Alumexx ((Voorheen Phelix (voorheen Inverko)) 8.486 114.822
AM 228 684
Amarin Corporation 1 133
Amerikaanse aandelen 3.837 243.246
AMG 971 133.365
AMS 3 73
Amsterdam Commodities 305 6.690
AMT Holding 199 7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp 2 491
Antonov 22.632 153.605
Aperam 92 15.007
Apollo Alternative Assets 1 17
Apple 5 382
Arcadis 252 8.778
Arcelor Mittal 2.033 320.714
Archos 1 1
Arcona Property Fund 1 286
arGEN-X 17 10.302
Aroundtown SA 1 219
Arrowhead Research 5 9.740
Ascencio 1 28
ASIT biotech 2 697
ASMI 4.108 39.115
ASML 1.766 107.452
ASR Nederland 21 4.486
ATAI Life Sciences 1 7
Atenor Group 1 491
Athlon Group 121 176
Atrium European Real Estate 2 199
Auplata 1 55
Avantium 32 13.673
Axsome Therapeutics 1 177
Azelis Group 1 64
Azerion 7 3.392

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