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  1. drulletje drie 16 mei 2008 09:10

    • drulletje drie

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    SOLARFUN POWER HOLDI(NasdaqGM: SOLF)
    After Hours: 18.62 0.15 (0.81%) on 05/15/08
    Last Trade: 18.47
    Trade Time: May 15
    Change: 1.06 (6.09%)
    Prev Close: 17.41
    Open: 18.70
    Bid: 15.50 x 200
    Ask: 18.71 x 1000
    1y Target Est: 108.31

    en weer een stijging van meer als een $ !!
    liggen nog op schema om vandaag de $ 20.00 te zien.

    vanmiddag maar weer eens kijken ;)
  2. drulletje drie 16 mei 2008 12:30

    • drulletje drie

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    Solarfun Earnings Could be the Perfect Trigger for a Short Squeeze
    by: David White posted on: May 16, 2008 | about stocks: SOLF Font Size: PrintEmail Virtually all of the solar companies which have reported recently have reported better than expected earnings. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) trounced their earnings estimates. CSIQ is in a virtually identical segment of the business to Solarfun (SOLF). According to theStreet.com analyses on TD Ameritrade, SOLF has slightly better margins than CSIQ. This would lead one to believe that SOLF is likely to have much better than expected earnings this quarter. With the price of the stock currently sitting on (or near) the trigger point for most short sale buy backs, a move up with earnings might well trigger a big short squeeze. I note the current price of SOLF at this writing is approx. $18.50. Likely most shorts were sold at or below this price.



    The current short squeeze situation was set up on Jan. 24, 2008. SOLF sold $150,000,000 worth of convertible notes priced at $19.13. At the same time, SOLF lent 7.8 million shares to Morgan Stanley to sell to the bond investors to hedge their positions. For instance, bond investors could collect the interest on the note, but short the stock close to the $19.13 price to prevent themselves from losing money as the stock went down in a down market. Apparently this is what happened. During the ensuing down market, the short positions on SOLF deepened further. TD Ameritrade currently shows approximately 15 million shares are shorted (about 35% of the float). Currently SOLF is trading at about 15 times 2009 earnings estimates, so it has room to move up. If SOLF guides higher after reporting good earnings, the stock may move much higher.

    The possible downside view may be the margins. Both CSIQ and SOLF have low margins. Some people are wondering how they are going to do in the future as solar gets cheaper. Can they compete? Certainly a lot of people have shorted CSIQ, even though it continues to go up. What can make other people believe that CSIQ and SOLF have a good future?

    The answer for CSIQ is that it is planning to start making UMG solar, which is much cheaper to manufacture. It is planning to ship 30-40MW of UMG solar in 2008. It will build this amount to 200MW in 2009. I haven’t heard that SOLF has any UMG plans yet, but it seems like just a matter of time. In addition Good Energies owns big stakes in both Trina Solar (TSL) and SOLF. Many are predicting solar company mergers, so companies can compete better. Many think SOLF and TSL are a marriage made in “Good Energy”. If that merger happens, it will likely help both companies. TSL recently scrapped its plans to build a poly plant. I think the UMG technology may have been part of the reason. The definitive work on UMG seems to be “Silicon LPE On Substrates From Metallurgical Silicon Feedstock For Large Scale Production” by M. Muller, R. Kopecek, P. Fath, C. Zahedi, and K. Peter from the University of Konstanz, Department of Physics. Apparently after upgrading the metallurgical silicon to PV-grade (PVG-Si), it can be used as feedstock without the need for complex high cost chlorosilane process to purify the product. Such low cost feedstock gives a reasonable efficiency solar cell [1], provided a high purity thin silicon layer is grown on the multicrystalline substrate wafers, which is made of PVG-Si by conventional ingot casting and wafering. Electrical grade silicon is 99.99999 plus percent pure, but it costs $150 to $250 a kilogram.
    Only around 70,000 tons are manufactured worldwide. By contrast, upgraded metallurgical silicon is only 99 percent or so percent pure and goes for $20 to $50 a kilo. Approximately 1.2 million tons get made a year.

    This seems to be the development path that CSIQ has elected to follow. Other companies such as SOLF and TSL are sure to follow. A company like LDK Solar (LDK) will likely use its coming poly plant to increase its margins. Then it will start on this new technology (perhaps before then) in combination with its poly plant to further increase margins. Ditto MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR). Both of these companies should be able to compete well with all of the other new technologies, such as CIGS. The solar made in this way has a slightly lower conversion efficiency. However, that efficiency is still very competitive with CIGS technology. Watch out First Solar (FSLR)! The competition is coming.

    In sum, the UMG technology means that there is still a bright future for companies such as CSIQ and SOLF. It means that all of the polysilicone solar manufacturers will not suddenly be put out of business by newer technologies such as CIGS. It means that FSLR, which trades at 54 times 2009 earnings, may have lost its edge.

    I think SOLF can be bid up in a short squeeze at its pivot point because it looks like it has a bright future if it just follows the crowd. If it can produce good results now, good results look very probable in the future. It has a lot of good contracts and good customer relationships. It just needs to execute. A merger with TSL might well help. Such a possible merger is another reason the stock price may rise.

  6. [verwijderd] 16 mei 2008 18:16

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    Hij is helemaal los was te verwachten , de 25 is goming soon.Als de cijfers goed zijn zien we een reactie als bij canadian en is de 40 mogelijk.

    groetjes adje
  7. jumpster 16 mei 2008 19:06

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    Ik heb China Sunenergy CSUN. Gaat ook als een speer met hoog volume - cijfers komen de 20e.
    Koers op 1 mei 8 USD, vandaag 13.
  8. [verwijderd] 16 mei 2008 20:50

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    quote:

    jumpster schreef:

    Ik heb China Sunenergy CSUN. Gaat ook als een speer met hoog volume - cijfers komen de 20e.
    Koers op 1 mei 8 USD, vandaag 13.

    stevig vasthouden is ook een achterblijvertje
  11. drulletje drie 17 mei 2008 12:24

    • drulletje drie

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    Dit is nog eens een aangename verassing zeg, een slot van $ 22.84.

    En dan te bedenken dat er nog 2 van zulke dagen komen voordat op woensdag de cijfers komen.

    Eind volgende week $ 40.00 als nieuw doel ?!!?
  12. SanDiego 17 mei 2008 17:50

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    Zeer aangenaam koersverloop...
    Dank voor de tips, ga me even inlezen.
    Maar als er een gelijkwaardig koersverloop komt met Solarfun is er zeker geen reden tot klagen.

    Wat denken jullie dat een goed verkoopmoment is?
    Nog even aanhouden tot de cijfers?

    SD
  13. [verwijderd] 17 mei 2008 23:17

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    quote:

    SanDiego schreef:

    Zeer aangenaam koersverloop...
    Dank voor de tips, ga me even inlezen.
    Maar als er een gelijkwaardig koersverloop komt met Solarfun is er zeker geen reden tot klagen.

    Wat denken jullie dat een goed verkoopmoment is?
    Nog even aanhouden tot de cijfers?

    SD
    Zie canadian solar , als cijfers solarfun niet tegenvallen staan we zo rond de 40.

    groetjes
  15. drulletje drie 19 mei 2008 09:15

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    Solarfun Shares, Options Trading Surge Before Results (Update1)

    By Jeff Kearns

    May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Solarfun Power Holdings Co. options trading reached a record and the shares jumped the most in five months on speculation the solar-panel maker will beat profit forecasts for a third straight quarter.

    American depositary receipts of Jiangsu, China-based Solarfun advanced 24 percent to $22.84 in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading May 16. An options contract that would have expired worthless if not for the gain in the ADRs jumped 28-fold. Implied volatility, the key factor in valuing options, increased to 125.42 from 113.06.

    Solarfun is scheduled to report first-quarter results May 21. American Technology Research estimates income of 11 cents a share, while Oppenheimer & Co. forecasts 18 cents.

    ``Volatility is sky-high,'' said Joe Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at Investools Inc.'s thinkorswim brokerage unit in Chicago. ``It's noteworthy because people think they can blow earnings away.''

    Call-option volume jumped to a record 73,530 on May 16, almost 11 times the average during the preceding 20 days. Those bullish bets outnumbered bearish ones, or puts, by 2.4-to-1.

    An increase in implied volatility indicates traders anticipate bigger swings in the stock price. The ADRs, representing five ordinary shares, reached a record $37.64 in January, then fell as low as $8.97 in March.

    Waning Support

    Concern government support for alternative energy will wane and unreliable raw-material supplies have undermined solar stocks this year. Last week's stock-price surge pared Solarfun's loss this year to 30 percent.

    Solarfun's sales may double in 2008, Chief Executive Officer Harold Hoskens said in a conference call after the company released its last earnings report March 27. Demand for solar power gained an average 40 percent annually over the past five years as utilities and energy companies seek ways to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

    June $22.50 calls, the most-active options contracts, almost tripled to $3.70 on May 16. Those calls have risen 3,600 percent this month from 10 cents on April 30. May $20 calls climbed the fastest, jumping to $2.80 from 10 cents for a one- day gain of 2,700 percent. Last week's final session was the expiration day for those contracts, which as of May 15 needed an 8.3 percent jump to reach their strike price.

    Heaviest Volume

    Trading reached a record 22.9 million shares, a 58 percent increase from the average over the last year. The heaviest volume and the steepest share-price increase were concentrated in the last 30 minutes of trading.

    Solarfun gained 17 percent after its last earnings report on March 27, when it said fourth-quarter profit doubled and sales quadrupled. Two days before that announcement, the shares rose 21 percent.

    All four Solarfun analysts tracked by Bloomberg have the equivalent of a ``hold'' rating on the shares. American Technology's John Hardy has a $14 share-price forecast.

    Beijing-based analyst Cheryl Tang of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a $17 target. She lowered her rating from ``buy'' almost a year ago. Since then the stock rallied 144 percent.

    Peter Homstad, Solarfun's Scottsdale, Arizona-based investor relations contact, didn't respond to phone or e-mailed messages yesterday.

    Shanghai Office

    Company officials at Solarfun's headquarters in Qidong, Jiangsu, and members of its sales staff in Shanghai said there was no one available to comment from their offices when contacted today.

    The global solar-power market may grow as much as 40 percent this year, according to Shi Zhengrong, Chief Executive Officer of Suntech Power Holdings Co., China's largest maker of photovoltaic modules. Only a shortage of polysilicon keeps sales from jumping 50 percent, Shi told reporters at an April 22 briefing in Sydney.

    First Solar Inc., the largest U.S. manufacturer of solar power modules, said April 30 that first-quarter profit soared ninefold and sales tripled on rising demand for its thin-filmed solar technology. Net income was 57 cents a share, beating the 45 cents average of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

    Solarfun first sold shares in December 2006 through an initial public offering led by Goldman Sachs.

    (Solarfun scheduled a conference call to discuss the results at 8 a.m. New York time, or 8 p.m. Shanghai time. Dial 1-866-362-4820 from within the U.S., 1-617-597-5345 from outside of the U.S. or +10-800-130-0399 in China. The passcode is SOLF.)

  16. [verwijderd] 19 mei 2008 11:18

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    Hey Solar beleggers,

    Ik ben hier nieuw op het forum. Ik beleg wel al jaren en sta altijd open voor nieuwe ontwikkelingen.

    Wat mij in eerste instantie opvalt is het volgende:

    Grafieken van Suntech power holdings, Solarfun, LDK, China sunergy en Q-Cells laten allemaal rond maart een enorme dip zien. Sommige bedrijven dalen in deze tijd (de krediet krisis) meer dan de Indexen (of banken). Toch een gevalletje van gebakken lucht?

    First Solar staat momenteel als enige all time high! (vast geen afschrijvingen moeten doen omtrent de krediet krisis) of is First Solar gewoon het beste bedrijf op dit gebied?

    Hoeveel van deze bedrijven gaan er uiteindelijk kapot? En welke heeft nu eigenlijk echt de beste papieren?

    Een aandeel als China sunergy of LDK solar dat lijkt meer op een stuiterbal of heeft dit een verklaring?

    Ik vermoed dat er hier vast beleggers zijn met veel objectieve kennis, en die dat best wel willen delen met mij en de rest van het forum.

    mijn dank is groot,

    groet Xander
  18. SanDiego 19 mei 2008 15:51

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    Goede opening maar weer.
    Volume ziet er ook goed uit.
    Ben uiterst benieuwd naar de cijfers morgen.
    Zijn deze beter dan verwacht, staat alles op groen.
  19. drulletje drie 19 mei 2008 15:53

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    gaat inderdaad weer heerlijk hier..
    met deze volumes sluit ik slot $ 28 / $ 29 niet uit...
    en woensdag komen de cijfers niet dinsdag..morgen dus nog zo'n dag ??!?!
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