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By Alexandra Hudson
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - A lengthy battle looms if U.S. stationary supplier Staples formalizes its hostile bid for Dutch peer Corporate Express (CXP.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) as expected next week, with most analysts anticipating it will ultimately have to pay more.
Corporate Express has persistently rejected as too low the 2.5 billion euro ($3.83 billion) bid proposal that Staples (SPLS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) first made in February after its attempt to hold friendly merger talks failed.
However there is much consensus that a tie-up between Staples and Corporate Express would make strategic sense and lead to considerable savings at a time when the both companies are vulnerable to the U.S. economic downturn.
Staples must register an official bid for approval to the Dutch market regulator (AFM) by May 13.
ING analyst Marc Zwartsenburg raised his target price on the stock on Thursday to 8 euros from a previous 5.50 euros, which was based on a stand-alone fair value.
"We expect an eventual successful outcome to the still unsolicited bid from Staples," he said in a note. "Our take is that in the end the deal will go ahead, but that the ride will be bumpy and risky and the takeover process lengthy."
Shares in Corporate Express are currently trading at around 7.50 euros, above the proposed 7.25 euro per share offer, in anticipation of a sweetened deal. The stock has risen 40 percent so far this year after losing more than half its value during 2007 as sales in the United States slumped.
Shares fell to a five-year low of 3.20 euros in January, since which point the firm has fought hard to restore sales growth in the United States, where it generates around 50 percent of sales.
The firm reported operating profit of 50.5 million euros on Wednesday, in-line with expectations, and shares responded positively as Corporate Express confirmed its ambitious sales growth and margins targets.
Analyst Maarten Bakker at Fortis described the 7.25 euro offer as "only a first shot across the bow".
"We are very confident that Staples will not walk away from this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to consolidate and reap very large integration benefits."
In an a note written last month he suggested a price of 11 euros per share, his targeted value, would be economically justifiable and make the deal earnings accretive for Staples from the second year.
Commenting on Corporate Express' management stance he said: "We do not see them bending for anything less than a fair share of the synergy benefits from integration with Staples."
Zwartsenburg commented that although a fair bid price would be in the range of 9 to 9.5 euros, he believes the balance of power is in Staples' favor, hence a lower bid is more likely.
"We think the take-out price could be restricted to 8.00-8.25 euros given the balance of power. This is because Staples has time and fears over the cycle on its side."
(Reporting by Alexandra Hudson)