pe26 schreef op 4 februari 2011 12:05:
Belangrijke bevindingen joachimds op beursduivel (heeft geluisterd naar conference call):
A.Vragen van Jan De Kerpel van KBC
1) How to mitigate the 'drop out' risk of the alliances
The further in the collaboration, the smaller the risk as the assays are of higher quality. Alliance cancelled, assets go to galapagos. The further in the collaboration, the better the cancellation is for galapagos. Downside is limited on the cancellation for the long term collaborations.
No news on other partners that are changing strategy. No other mergers/acquisition in pharma world that would change internal strategies of partners.
2) View om the work sharing between biotech/pharma on novel targets
Pharma WILL need new modes of actions to replace blockbusters. Alliance model gives good opportunities to get new modes of action cheaply.
No view on diminishing power of the risk sharing model. Merck was a little bump.
New alliances are coming. 3) revenue growth, composition of the revenue
* 40% from services. Service divison is stronger than ever. That target will be met
* small percentage subsidies
* There is upside if new alliances come in
Vragen van Petercam
1) Merck milestone dropout 2011
15 miljoen revenue gemist door cancellation met Merck.
2) News flow 2011
March 4: Full year 2010 (+ RA results)
New alliances
half year results
Main drivers: results from the internal pipeline
3) Upside could come from new agreement, new agreement expected? Could that upgrade revenue guidance
No. New alliance will not automatically upgrade the guidance. Business is not predictive. Only the service division is predictive. The company has never missed the guidance. With 2011 growth @ 10%, we expect to meet that target.
"It is not as selling soup" no predictive margin/sales. *Nieuwe allianties op komst. Daarnaast groeit service divisie als kool (40% van de omzet = 55 mln. en daarmee zat marcello precies op het goede spoor). 15 mln. omzet weggevallen van Merck voor 2011, kan nog omzet voor terugkomen zie onder.
-The Merck assets are 'on the shelf'. We are looking to try to sell them are license them with another partner and gather positive cashflow from it that can contribute to the P/L.
Toch verwachten ze minimaal 10% groei (excl. optie-uitoefening Janssen) in 2011. Expected ramp up terug in 2012. Expected net profit + positive cash flow in 2012
B. Only milestones > 2.5 million are published. Total milestones are bigger than most people calculate.
C.Internal budgets have not been cut, we are still going full speed, despite the merck setback.
Einde van de press conference.