SNSN schreef op 28 november 2014 10:42:
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Hi G. Roet,
The fair value for "new kpn" is indeed around ~4.0
Both the “relative” and “absolute” evaluation methodologies give (approximately) the same value - around ~4.0. A schematic (reasonably detailed) description of more precise “relative evaluation” was given several times since May 2013. Also schematic, though more or less reasonable, basic description of a kind of classic "absolute evaluations" was given here (also several times) by another forum member (seems “Romano”, but not sure).
Actually there is a number of such methodologies deviating by assumptions and in-put parameters, using different capital markets, etc..
If shortly, the basic point is that the "company value" is NOT observable in the market directly, as there are NO liquid markets. That's why there are many methods how to "recover" that "hidden value" out of observable variables. One of such (old) methods (via "intrinsic value"), as well as, all its inaccuracy, deficiencies and problems I also described (schematically) at this forum. Another much more advanced method, for instance, is based on really complex math and option pricing methodologies, it was proposed by Merton (for credit default evaluations) and later successfully implemented as a system by KVK (it is currently a part of rating agency Moody’s). Almost all big banks, pf, hf, agencies use different modifications of this methodology.
Description of methodology it's not just a couple of words... So, just take a look through the archive. You could probably google it as well (?)