SNSN schreef op 8 april 2015 15:45:
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First of all, given the posts' properties, the prob is high that 'appiehapie' is a lady - so it seems would better use 'she'
Second, if you are talking about the (overvalued) markets - aex, then yes, it's really a "hard-decision" time. There are a lot of (technical) indicators for "top-forming"..... But, this time it's NOT so easy, as we had a "structural" fundamental changes in underlying market-drivers, so that the underlying processes are getting highly NON-stationary,
and standard technical indicators are NOT working then:
One of the reasons is just ECB (actually stupid) action with covered bonds program, leading to just a huge amount of "new cash" released. It may go either to financial markets (high prob), pumping even bigger bubble, and then indices will certainly rise even further, or it may go to real economy (low prob) rising inflation and economy itself. But, based on economic rules, it's more probable that the "new free-cash" should go to the financial markets, instead of real economy, as the market-risk (in financial markets) is anyway much lower than the risks associated with uncertainties within the real-economy (in current conditions)... The situation, in some extent, is close to 2009. (The prob is reasonably high that the real correction for aex should come before the end of June)
Third, if you are talking just about (still undervalued) kpn, then it's very different, as kpn has very different its own underlying mechanisms (that's why it's not really correlated with overvalued aex). And following a number of objective reasons (actually very basic - see old posts for details) it will contimue to rise toward the fair walue.... However, theoretically there is still a small prob for a narrow dive under 3.0 until we are under the resistance zone ~3.37-3.385.