SNSN schreef op 4 december 2015 15:53:
The stock is in uptrend since Oct 10/15, moving just within the upper & lower uptrend edges.
The lower edge was hit twice - Oct 15 & Nov 9
The upper edge was hit - Oct 10, Nov 19, Dec 1.
The cycle timing (lower-upper-lower) for this uptrend was estimated around ~16-18 sessions (subject to st-corrections determined by the distributions in respect to dynamic median).
Current move down - towards the lower uptrend edge (around ~3.35 currently) - was determined by several factors: i) unsuccessful double attempt to speed up rising by breaking above the upper uptrend edge (without completing full cycle) Nov 19 & Dec 1, ii) strong lt/strategic resistance zone ~3.66-3.68 that almost coincided with the upper edge of uptrend, iii) pressure by st-downtrend for 'aex' since Nov 27 (kpn is not correlated just on longer horizons), and iii) some other drivers.
The matter is that kpn is still a good playground for st/d-trading strategies providing transparent indications for st-short/long-switches when trading volatility.
Conditional on current dynamics, the estimated "bottom" (within the current rising channel) providing dynamic support near the lower uptrend edge is the zone ~3.36-3.38, which is reachable within the next ~3-4 sessions.
So, business as usual.... And the uptrend since Oct 10/15 is intact. Take care.