Koos99 schreef op 22 januari 2016 14:42:
Hier de opinie van ABNAMRO van afgelopen week mbt TomTom over de ontwikkelingen in automotive
Back-of-the-envelope automotive mapping market opportunity
In the long run (2020-2025), we see an automotive mapping/traffic info potential of at least EUR 5bn per annum vs EUR 0.5bn today (currently, it is split between 20% TomTom/80% HERE). We see an ASP of EUR 50/car on 100m cars sold. ASP at EUR 50 is flat vs today, which we find conservative, given the increasing importance of the map, shifting from nice-to-have to need-to-have. Industry estimates for cars sold is also considerably higher, but there will always be some cars without automated driving functions. At the moment, TomTom is winning market share as its order intake is >3x their sales. TomTom is harvesting the results from investments on a new map platform started in 2011. According to the company, collecting data is the relatively easy part. Processing is what took TomTom years to develop. We expect that the mapping market opportunity will grow exponentially and we believe that TomTom will take a growing part of that pie even with new entrants into part of its portfolio (like Mobileye). We believe our current map platform valuation at EUR 2.4bn (8x EV/EBIT for 2020E) is not overly aggressive, especially compared to a selling price for HERE of EUR 2.8bn at the end of last year. In our view, HERE is a less attractive asset, given that TomTom’s platform leapfrogged it. TomTom’s lead was underlined by its 2015 market share gains (based on order intake).