avantiavanti schreef op 24 april 2017 16:08:
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nee, Janney is excl cash. Iig in de reports die ik tot dusver gezien heb. Zie bijv. extract uit rapport 31/10/'16
We value GLPG based on a risk-adjusted, sum-of-parts analysis, and is driven by filgotinib (RA and Crohn’s) and CF programs. Note, neither UC, nor the robust cash position (~$25/share) are reflected in our NPV, suggesting room for upside. We assign modest NPV to its OA and IFP clinical programs as we await
clinical validation.
NPV for the Gilead-partnered RA program are $40/share based on a 65% probability of success (POS) in RA. RA represents 63% of our FV. Note the elaborate phase 3 program (three independent phase 3 studies were initiated on 8/22/16)
NPV for the Gilead-partnered Crohn’s programs is $8/share based on $60% probability of success. Note, a phase 3 program in Crohn’s is expected to begin enrollment during 4Q16. Crohn’s represents 13% of our FV. Between RA and Crohn's we anticipate over $2.5B in peak sales and hence, blockbuster status. We are not currently including the Ulcerative Colitis opportunity as we await phase 2/3 study initiation/data
NPV for the Abbvie-partnered CF program is $11/share (or 17% of our FV). Our NPV assumes the following success rates: Triple-combo in homozygous patients at 20%; Triple-combo in heterozygous patients at 9%; Monotherapy in G551D, 2117H, etc. at 65%
NPV for the OA and IPF programs are $3 and $2/share, respectively with 9% probability of success.