*Justin* schreef op 19 april 2017 16:28:
Barclays bijna om?
Ze blijven de meest negatieve of beter gezegd voorzichtige van het stel.
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TomTom NV
In line quarter and outlook maintained, but mix improving
Stock Rating/Industry View: Underweight/Neutral
Price Target: EUR 6.25
Price (18-Apr-2017): EUR 8.67
Potential Upside/Downside: -28%
Tickers: TOM2 NA / TOM2.AS
TomTom reported an in line quarter and reiterated guidance for the full year as its newer growth business outperformed and offset continued pressure on legacy portable navigation device sales.
Within the release, however, we think the key area of investor focus should be gross margin, which expanded strongly to 62%, ahead of consensus 61% and our more cautious 59% due to the continued positive business mix shift towards data, software and services and away from hardware. The drag from hardware has not gone away, as it is still 40% of revenue, but is declining at 16% y/y in 1Q and therefore steadily becoming a smaller part of the mix.
TomTom have maintained their full year guidance, suggesting they do not see a breakout surprise in gross margin this year, but we think the trend in mix is clear and likely key for shares. While we do view such developments positively, the overall near-term financials remain subdued given declining legacy Consumer offsetting the double digit growth in Automotive, Telematics and Licensing.
Our 2017 estimates are in line with guidance (25c in EPS) and we model below consensus in 2018 (26c vs. 30c), leading to our view of TomTom trading on 2.0x/1.9x 2017/18 EV/sales and 34x/30x P/E. Despite revenue declines, only high single digit margins and limited EPS growth, TomTom remains one of the most expensive shares in our coverage, trading on multiples we consider stretched for a company with negative revenue growth and flattish EPS. We expect TomTom to be one of the beneficiaries of the move towards connected and autonomous cars, but continue to foresee a longer transition.