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OCI NL0010558797

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OCI - 2021

7.828 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 323 324 325 326 327 ... 392 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 15 november 2021 14:04

    • BultiesBrothers

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    ertilizer: “Supply Disruptions Push Prices to New Highs”
    November 14, 2021 Keith Good agricultural economy



    Print
    Last week, DTN writer Katie Micik Dehlinger reported that, “The average retail price of anhydrous set a record this week at $1,113/ton after increasing 38% from last month. The seven other major fertilizers tracked by DTN for the first week of November saw increases ranging from 9% to 36% as supply disruptions push prices to new highs. DTN considers a monthly price change of 5% or more to be significant.”

    “DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends,” by Katie Micik Dehlinger. DTN- Progressive Farmer (November 10, 2021).
    The DTN article explained that, “This year, high prices are more related to supply chain issues and worries about shortages than increased demand. The entire fertilizer complex is seeing higher prices, but the largest movers this month are nitrogen products.

    The average price of UAN28 is 36% higher than last month at $545/ton. UAN32 is 32% more expensive at $604/ton, while urea is up 26% at $820/ton. All are new records for DTN’s database.

    And on Friday, Bloomberg writer Elizabeth Elkin reported that, “Fertilizer prices keep soaring to unprecedented heights, signaling escalating costs for farmers and consumers around the world.

    “The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index rose 4.4% to $1,094.35 per short ton on Friday, surpassing a record set a week earlier. Prices for New Orleans urea, a popular nitrogen fertilizer, jumped 8.3% to $812 per short ton as major producer CF Industries Holdings Inc. warned of continued shortages.

    “Fertilizer Prices Rocket to All-Time High on Tightening Supplies,” by Elizabeth Elkin. Bloomberg News (November 12, 2021).
    “Crop-nutrient prices have been soaring as an energy pinch in Europe makes natural gas, the main feedstock for most nitrogen fertilizer, more costly. China and Russia are restricting nutrient exports to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. U.S. consumers already are seeing the steepest inflation since 1990.”

    The Bloomberg article pointed out that, “As fertilizer and other input costs rise, Bloomberg’s Green Markets anticipates American farmers next year will switch 2.5 million acres from corn to soybeans, which is less fertilizer-intensive.”

    Meanwhile, Jiyoung Sohn and Vibhuti Agarwal reported in Friday’s Wall Street Journal that, “A coal shortage that led to an energy crisis in China is rippling beyond its borders, threatening to disrupt supply chains and farming in countries that rely on its exports of a chemical used in fertilizer and diesel exhaust systems.

    “India and South Korea are experiencing shortages of urea, which is produced using coal, since China placed new restrictions on exports. It is widely used in India as a fertilizer and in South Korea to produce urea solution, which is used to reduce diesel emissions in vehicles and factories.”

    The Journal article noted that, “Satnam Singh, who farms wheat on 1.5 acres in the northern Indian state of Punjab, said rumors of shortages have prompted panicked farmers to buy urea and another fertilizer essential for winter-sown wheat, diammonium phosphate, at almost twice the original price. ‘Prices have gone through the roof. It’s a big problem,’ Mr. Singh said.

    “In some places, farmers have been unable to buy fertilizer even after standing in long lines for days, said Vikram Singh, joint secretary of the All India Agricultural Workers Union, warning that the shortages could disrupt the growing season and lead to rising food prices.”

    farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2021/11/f...
  2. forum rang 4 StartendeBelegger 15 november 2021 14:14

    • StartendeBelegger

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    quote:

    Just lucky schreef op 15 november 2021 13:49:

    Op redelijke omzet flink omhoog, vraag valt weg, algootje wordt wakker en vervolgens wordt de koers op zeer lage omzet weer grotendeels in elkaar gedrukt. Omzet is momenteel ongeveer nul (paar duizend stukjes per uur). Zeer triest koersverloop. Hopelijk sluiten we nog wel groen.

    Denk dat de koers met Yara mee naar beneden glijdt, omgekeerd uiteraard niet....
    Vergeleken met vanochtend is de omzet met zo'n 15% gedaald. Valt dus wel mee hoe hoog de omzet was vanochtend.
  3. forum rang 6 Just lucky 15 november 2021 14:19

    • Just lucky

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    quote:

    StartendeBelegger schreef op 15 november 2021 14:14:

    [...]

    Vergeleken met vanochtend is de omzet met zo'n 15% gedaald. Valt dus wel mee hoe hoog de omzet was vanochtend.
    Om 11 uur hadden we 120k omzet, nu 3,5 uur later 190 k.
  5. forum rang 6 Ruval 15 november 2021 14:28

    • Ruval

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    Profiteer van de huidige koers zolang het kan door gestaag bij te kopen. Je ziet dat de pieken steeds hoger worden dus er is wel degelijk meer bereidheid en interesse om aandeel te kopen. Belangstelling is nog te dun voor enorme koersjump (of er word nog teveel verkocht) maar ik ben niet zo negatief en heb er vertrouwen in dat er een grote koers rally aan komt doe ons gaat brengen tot koersen van € 35 en hoger….
  10. forum rang 6 Just lucky 15 november 2021 15:53

    • Just lucky

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    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 15 november 2021 15:50:

    VS rood, fingers crossed als we groen blijven vandaag....
    Denk het niet, bij dalingen haakt Oci wel aan.
  12. forum rang 6 Ruval 15 november 2021 16:03

    • Ruval

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    quote:

    Just lucky schreef op 15 november 2021 15:53:

    [...]Denk het niet, bij dalingen haakt Oci wel aan.
    OCI koers volgt meestal eigen pad, ik ben er niet zo bang voor dat we worden meegetrokken bij grote dalingen.

    Ik ga wel mee met de vorige week gemaakte analyse dat er voor de optie expiratie as vrijdag te grote belangen zijn om de koers onder de 25 te houden. Daarna verwacht ik forse stijging omhoog en ik denk ook dat we dit jaar nog koersen gaan zien die beginnen met een 3….
  14. forum rang 6 Just lucky 15 november 2021 16:07

    • Just lucky

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    quote:

    Kruimeldief schreef op 15 november 2021 11:39:

    [...]
    En morgen Daaldag. Vrijdag expiratie opties. Denk maar niet, dat we de week boven de 25 uitgaan. Zoals Lucky ook zegt, ga nog maar even niet juichen. Dat hebben we al te vaak gedaan.
    Denk dat er toch iemand stiekem gejubeld heeft om 11.00.
  15. TonyDePony 15 november 2021 16:17

    • TonyDePony

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    quote:

    Ruval schreef op 15 november 2021 16:03:

    [...]
    OCI koers volgt meestal eigen pad, ik ben er niet zo bang voor dat we worden meegetrokken bij grote dalingen.

    Ik ga wel mee met de vorige week gemaakte analyse dat er voor de optie expiratie as vrijdag te grote belangen zijn om de koers onder de 25 te houden. Daarna verwacht ik forse stijging omhoog en ik denk ook dat we dit jaar nog koersen gaan zien die beginnen met een 3….
    Dat denk ik nu ook vrijdag staat de koers gewoon 25, volgende week laten ze het weer los en dan kiezen ze weer een koers voor december.
    Totaal van de pot wat er hier gebeurt iedereen ziet het maar de beursregulators laten het maar gebeuren ....
  17. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 15 november 2021 19:11

    • BultiesBrothers

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    INSIGHT: Unsettling market conditions have potential to impact US fertilizer and agriculture industries
    Author: Mark Milam

    2021/11/15

    HOUSTON (ICIS)--Like a cotton grower watching dark skies accumulating just as their field of white bolls are prying open, bringing the threat of unavoidable loss, the domestic US fertilizer market is seeing unsettling conditions that have been steadily gathering on the horizon.

    Fuelled by the lift in natural gas feedstock prices and the subsequent sidelining of production, the price for the major crop nutrients are now greatly escalated and have swept up the costs of the other inputs, like fuel and seed, which are needed for a season thereby building up a potential storm of impacts.

    While the market cautiously watches, the uncertainty has given life to a term that had been dormant for some time, that phrase being - demand destruction. It, like an unruly patch of weeds flourishing in a row of developing crops, can be unsettling.

    Yet the phrase is being used often these days as for the first time in many years the skyrocketing cost of putting in the next crop may see farmers take some drastic actions.

    Those could include forgoing fall inputs and changing their post-harvest tillage patterns. There could also be those who reduce acreage or take to switching to another less nutrient-intensive crop with soybeans showing serious potential for outpacing corn next year.

    There could also be growers who cut back their rate of applications in the short term or even skip some of their typical usage. Marginal land could be left out of the rotation or used for a crop that has minimal input needs.

    As one corn and cotton farmer recently observed, there is growing thought of using less fertilizer or selecting something to grow other than corn, saying “there are just so many unknowns for this spring, and every week it is higher and corn prices are not going up as fast.”

    A market source said farmers are expressing their displeasure but also beginning to recognise the reality of the current market, saying “nobody likes to pay higher prices but what I am hearing from them is I’m still... [angry] but I understand it.”

    When it comes to difficulties facing farmers, the fertilizer industry has recently begun to address the high prices and express confidence that consumption or plantings will not be affected.

    With the farmers want to farm mantra having increased in volumes over the last few weeks, both producers and trades are optimistic that farmers will make solid decisions on their nutrient needs and get through this challenging spring period.

    Producer Mosaic is among those who recently said that it is confident that farmers will get the supply they need and not be inclined to skip nutrients.

    “I mean our own belief is farmers like to farm. They're not going to sacrifice yield by not fertilizing. That just is not a good economic solution to the problem,” said Mosaic CEO Joc O’Rourke.

    Addressing whether there will be demand destruction and lower production because of the soaring costs, CF Industries CEO Tony Will said he does not view the situation in that fashion. "There is a real shortage of nitrogen and price has got to basically arbitrate who's going to get the scarce tonnes that are out there,” he commented.

    “It's not so much that you are going to destroy demand, there's going to be a lot of unmet demand that's going to be pent-up, and so we do think yield is going to be on a global basis off next year. Again, not because of demand destruction, just because there's not enough tonnes available.”

    Some are concerned that the recent run of elevated prices will last well past next spring’s sowings, especially if key fundamentals do not improve, most notably natural gas costs.

    Supply could become a major issue with the drop in global output and there are many concerns over how the recent movement by countries to restrict imports could weigh on Nola (New Orleans) direction going forward.

    Even with a surge in imports over this year, US availability has stayed tight with more pressure coming next quarter when demand cranks back up.

    Crop prices have been mostly favourable this year which is a positive factor that fertilizer participants are projecting will carry forward into 2022 and provide potential relief to growers.

    There is the question of how a major shift to soybeans would impact commodity futures and would investing in a corn or cotton crop be more profitable if supply is reduced for that acreage.

    An October report from the University of Illinois noted that “the higher fertilizer prices will increase costs, reduce recommended nitrogen application rates, and reduce the profitability of corn relative to soybeans.”

    There have been some early estimates that approximately 3m acres could change from corn to soybeans, which could result in both crops coming in at around 90m acres planted.

    While ammonia and urea are top contenders for seeing reduced usage, it is likely that any cuts are impacting all nutrients, with a market source saying, “phosphate and potash demand could feasibly drop even if acres remain high as many farmers might make the decision to reduce or skip their potash and phosphate applications at these types of prices, especially if they have kept soil levels high.”

    Growers who have been putting inputs at normal rates and have engaged in soil testing would be best suited to weather the lack of fertilizers, potentially withstanding a skip of one season of their fertilizing. Choosing to undertake a no-till or strip tillage approach to field work would help preserve more of the nutrient build up and crop residual value.

    Some growers have already elected to forego the fall run but at the same time they did lock in a quantity of their spring needs but not at the same level that they would typically commit.

    Part of this is over worries of being forced to grow corn to see a profit amid the record setting costs for farm inputs.

    Like the approaching dark clouds and deep rumbling of a storm, all sides of the market can sense what might be coming. But until farmers make clear their planting and fertilizing intentions it is not known to what extent the impacts will be.

    Yet, much like rain pouring down from the heavy storm as it passes, it will be felt by all in its path.

    Insight by Mark Milam
  18. forum rang 6 Just lucky 15 november 2021 19:33

    • Just lucky

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    Cf stijgt vanaf vrijdag 17.30 tot nu gewoon weer harder dan Oci, prijsjump van fertiglobe wordt daarmee volledig genegeerd. Wij moeten nu weer wachten tot er toevallig weer een echte koper langs komt.
  19. [verwijderd] 15 november 2021 20:23

    • [verwijderd]

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    Ook weer opvallend rond 11.00 hoogste koers en een partij call optie,s maart 26,gedekt verkocht premie 2 euro en 300 stuks.markt partijen hebben de handel volledig in de hand,door ff flink de koers op te jagen
    premies van de calls opties stijgen fors en dan de koers weer met weinig aantallen weer lager brengen,deze handel is al maanden bezig,met weinig risico hebben deze ratten de handel volledig onder controlle,er zijn geen partijen die groot willen inkopen,alleen de fam.Sawiris kunnen ingrijpen door ff flink in te kopen,zij hebben er toch al zat een paar miljoen extra deert hun niet.
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