BAM Groep Koninklijke NL0000337319

BAM november 2023

1. Gordon gekko 19 november 2023 20:00

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   quote:

   Zwijnash schreef op 19 november 2023 18:38:

   3 weken van stijgen gehad, volume was nog goed afgelopen week.
   Wordt het 4 weken achterelkaar?
   
   End of year rally en p/e van Bam is nog laag, vertrouwen is terug op naar de €3
   

   rond de 2,85 het jaar uit en voor de cijfers 3,20
2. Doemebest 19 november 2023 20:07

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   quote:

   Gordon gekko schreef op 19 november 2023 20:00:

   [...]rond de 2,85 het jaar uit en voor de cijfers 3,20
   

   En na de cijfers 4 euro.
3. Rob 19 november 2023 20:39

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   quote:

   Doemebest schreef op 19 november 2023 20:07:

   [...]En na de cijfers 4 euro.
   

   En dan 20 cent dividend er nog bij. Hoe mooi kan het zijn. :)
4. OnoMatopee 20 november 2023 06:59

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   www.novo3.nl/verkeer-vervoer/werkzaam...
5. Zwijnash 20 november 2023 07:41

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   Lijkt dat beurs iets lager opent maar Bam hoger
6. Marinus-86 20 november 2023 07:46

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   Europese beurzen openen naar verwachting in het rood
7. hvasd2 20 november 2023 08:39

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   Future AEX + 0,10 %
8. OnoMatopee 20 november 2023 09:00

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   na eeuwig rood eeuwig groen?!
9. innicksname 20 november 2023 09:19

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   quote:

   OnoMatopee schreef op 20 november 2023 09:00:

   na eeuwig rood eeuwig groen?!
   

   Bij de buren is het de laatste tijd in elk geval niet groener.
10. Zwijnash 20 november 2023 09:49

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    Ik heb de abn report gezien - staat in dat ze houd rekening mee met afschrijven van o.a. VK / Ireland/ Australia en Duitsland.
    
    Daarom is hun koers doel gegeven met 50% korting = €5 koers doel zonder de mogelijk afschrijven ( de houd rekenen mee met te veel lijkt mee !)
11. HenkdeV 20 november 2023 10:08

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    quote:

    Zwijnash schreef op 20 november 2023 09:49:

    Ik heb de abn report gezien - staat in dat ze houd rekening mee met afschrijven van o.a. VK / Ireland/ Australia en Duitsland.
    
    Daarom is hun koers doel gegeven met 50% korting = €5 koers doel zonder de mogelijk afschrijven ( de houd rekenen mee met te veel lijkt mee !)
    

    Er zijn ongeveer 273 miljoen aandelen keer 2,50 euro.
    Tel uit je winst:-).
12. OnoMatopee 20 november 2023 10:14

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    Company description
    Koninklijke BAM Groep N.V. offers residential and
    non-residential construction services. The Company offers
    property development, civil construction, cable and pipe
    systems, road, and mechanical and electrical systems
    construction services. BAM operates primarily in the
    Netherlands and Belgium.
    Royal BAM packs a mighty punch. The company, officially
    known as Koninklijke BAM Groep, has become a top
    heavyweight among European construction holding
    companies and is the largest such company in the
    Netherlands. Through subsidiaries, BAM provides civil
    engineering, construction, property development,
    consulting, and related services. It is one of region's leading
    builders of apartment buildings and other mutlifamily
    Please refer to the legal disclaimer at the end of this document.
    2
    residences. The group also participates in the finance and
    operations of public-private partnership (PPP) projects such
    as roadways and government buildings. In addition to the
    Netherlands, BAM's key markets include the UK, Belgium,
    Germany, and Ireland.
    Investment case
    BAM has been doing the right things. The company has
    wound down the bleeder BAM International, sold a 50%
    stake in its PPP business (raising EUR 130m in cash and
    improving solvency), divested Wayss & Freytag and BAM
    Deutschland (although remains liable for certain projects)
    and two Belgian units and has seriously reduced the risk
    profile of its project portfolio where possible, also reducing
    risk in the projects it tenders for. Solvency is now back at
    20%+, explaining why BAM is starting the payment of
    dividends again. Equally important is that the company is in
    a material net cash position, even when adjusted for
    advance payments. There is, however, uncertainty over a
    large project in Ireland, which may result in losses while
    BAM is also still involved in risky projects in the Netherlands
    (sealock Terneuzen) and Germany (Femarnbelt), albeit with
    lower equity stakes given recent divestments. In addition
    there is now an investigation into possible bribery that BAM
    needs to deal with as well as a serious train accident in NL
    for which it appears liable. CEO Joosten is moving BAM in
    the right direction but he must structurally change the
    company’s culture, de-risk the portfolio and improve the
    overall financial performance. In other words, the company
    is not there yet. Neutral reiterated, pt EUR 2.30
    Valuation, growth and profitability
    14/11/23 Neutral maintained, price target to €2.50, was €2.
    30
    We up our estimates for 2023-2025 for the adj. EBITDA
    margin by on average 20 bps, although we do forecast a dip
    in 2024 (10 bps decline) due to the head wind in residential
    and commercial market segments. The upped adj. EBITDA
    margins in the explicit forecast and in our terminal value
    EBITDA margin in our DCF (now at 4.5% was 4.0%) also
    explain why we increase our price target from €2.30 to €2.
    50. Due to the risks associated with the fiscal authority
    investigation (BAM International, possible material penalty)
    and multiple high risk projects (tunnels and sea locks
    mainly), we retain our Neutral rating.
    Upped adj. EBITDA margins but still a modest dip is
    expected in 2024
    The much better than expected adj. EBITDA margin in Q3
    2023 (5.1% vs 4.1% expected) and YTD Q3 2023 (4.4% vs
    4.0% expected), despite headwind in residential (low
    housing sales) and commercial construction markets (wfh
    trend, high mortgage rates), high wage inflation and
    nitrogen permitting issues in the Netherlands, has triggered
    an uptick in our estimates. We now forecast an adj. EBITDA
    margin of 4.3% for 2023 (was 4.2%), 4.2% for 2024
    (unchanged) and 4.5% for 2025 (was 4.4%). We still
    forecast a dip in 2024 sales and adj. EBITDA. This is
    because permitting points to lower volumes in the
    Netherlands (2023 vs 2022 down 19%, 2022 down 14% vs
    2021) while the 2024 outlook is not great due to the high
    (mortgage) interest rates (impacting commercial
    construction) and the UK’s decision to reign in infrastructure
    spending.
    FCF negative in 2023, modestly positive in 2024
    Due to BAM’s decision not to go for large lump sum and
    risky projects (positive), the advance payments will come
    down, which is already reflected in negative trade working
    capital becoming less negative. That trend is likely to
    continue in H2 2023 and 2024. As BAM also intends to
    continue to spend on electrification (positive, helps the
    competitive positioning) and industrialisation in wooden
    houses (positive), capex is likely to remain at an elevated
    level (€125m in 2023 and probably at the same level in
    2024, AOe). As a result, FCF will be materially negative in
    2023 (c. €60m) and only modestly positive in 2024 (c.
    €30m). It depends on the outcome of the 2024 CMD
    (continued high investments in electrification and
    industrialisation yes or no) whether FCF will improve
    thereafter.
    Still a number of high risk projects in the portfolio plus a
    fiscal investigation
    Despite all of its efforts, BAM still has a number of projects
    in its portfolio that have a high risk profile. These include the
    Children’s hospital in Dublin Ireland, the Silvertown tunnel in
    London UK, the Tideway super sewer project in London UK,
    the Fehmarnbelt tunnel in Germany/Denmark, the sea lock
    in Terneuzen Netherlands and the Cross River tunnel
    project in Brisbane Australia. On top of that BAM still has to
    deal with the investigation by the anti-bribery/fiscal
    impropriety division of the Dutch public prosecutor office
    into the dealings of BAM International with regards to
    projects executed outside the Netherlands.
    Significant headroom built-in in DCF for potential losses and
    a fine
    It is impossible to estimate the possible loss provisions (if
    Please refer to the legal disclaimer at the end of this document.
    3
    any) coming out of these high risk projects in a worst case
    scenario (Irish media claim there are €500m+ of claims
    outstanding, Australian media say the cost overrun of Cross
    Rail is c. €570m) or what amount (if any) BAM may be fined
    by the Dutch (fiscal) authorities (SBM Offshore was fined
    $240m for bribery in Africa and Brazil). As a result we
    continue to use an arbitrary 50% discount on the fair value
    per share. Following that logic, we raise our price target to
    €2.50 per share.
13. OnoMatopee 20 november 2023 10:14

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    09/11/23 Partnership between BAM and RR, up to Dutch
    politics to say yes or no
    BAM and Rolls Royce have signed an MoU to explore the
    possibilities to develop multiple so called small modular
    reactors in the Netherlands. Although it is up to Dutch
    politics to decide if it wants to increase nuclear power in the
    total energy mix, an SMR could be an intermediary and long
    term solution, especially in areas with heavy industry, that
    leaves little waste, is CO2 neutral and at relatively low cost.
    It is obviously early days, but SMRs are viewed by multiple
    countries as a solution to overcome the dependence on
    fossil based power generation while building out renewable
    energy in such a manner that it can sustain a whole
    economy. As such we view even a simple MoU as positive.
    In fact we hope that BAM and RR (or another SMR supplier)
    succeed in convincing the Dutch government.
    Multiple SMR suppliers, an attractive technology looking at
    levelized cost
    There are multiple suppliers of SMR technology including
    GE, Hitachi, Westinghouse and Rolls Royce and even more
    novel technologies are on offer by specialist firms like
    NuScale Power, Holtec and Kairos. The principle is the
    same. The key components of the reactor are manufactured
    in a plant like environment, allowing for industrial production
    at relatively low cost. The components are then transferred
    to the site and assembled locally. Due to the small size and
    industrial approach, SMRs in the UK, which is ahead of
    continental Europe except Poland, can be developed at a
    cost of c. GBP 1.8bn (€ 2.1bn) for a 470 Mw SMR, resulting
    in a levelized cost of between GBP50-GBP 70 (€58-€82) per
    Mwh, which makes it, at mid-point, cheaper than
    (€83/Mwh), significantly cheaper than gas (€122/Mw) and
    well cheaper than offshore wind (€96/mwh). All the LCE
    data is from a EIA report dating from April 2023. And the
    total construction period, according to Rolls Royce, is less
    than 500 days or within two years. This will a giga nuclear
    reactor construction time is between 6 and 8 years.
    Significant projects if Dutch politics say yes and selects
    BAM/RR
    As said, it is very early days. The Dutch government may
    decide to go for one or two large gigawatt nuclear reactor,
    multiple SMRs, a mix of the two or none at all. Although we
    certainly hope that SMRs will be part of the mix (it can help
    heavy energy dependent industries like Tata to move to
    hydrogen faster than based on renewable energy from
    offshore wind), it is not certain that it will happen or that
    BAM/RR is selected. But if that is the case, we assume that
    BAM, per SMR project, will have a volume of at least
    €400-500m (our estimate, we could be wrong), including
    the building, the access roads and the electrical
    infrastructure) whereas BAM Nutall, which is working on a
    concrete project, mentions a volume for one SMR of GBP
    500m. And because of the high safety requirements, annual
    maintenance contracts will also be material. So it is an
    interesting development for any construction company.
    02/11/23 Strong beats on sales and adj. EBITDA
    Despite all the issues that the construction markets in the
    Netherlands, the UK, Ireland and Belgium face, BAM did
    really well in Q3 2023. Sales beat our estimates by 6% with
    adj. EBITDA beating our estimate by 34% (!) with the adj.
    EBITDA margin coming in at 5.1% versus our expectation
    of 4.0% and 3.0% in Q3 2022. We had expected loss
    provisions in Ireland in relation to the Children’s Hospital
    which have not occurred (BAM calls the results of the Irish
    unit ‘strong’) while we had anticipated a weak
    performance of both of the UK’s units but the Civil
    Engineering activities have also done better than expected
    (BAM Construction UK impacted by supply chain issues at
    larger projects which we assume is the Silvertown project
    again). In the Netherlands the Civil Engineering business
    continued to do well (as expected) with home sales of the
    property unit coming in at c. 370 versus an expected
    300-400 (target for 2023 unchanged at 1,500 units,
    significantly lower than in 2022 (2,208). BAM also mentions
    that the contribution of the non-resi construction segment
    in the Netherlands recovered, which is positive. Trade
    working capital continues to trend down (-14.0% vs -14.8%
    in Q2, 15.1% in Q1 and -16.5% at the end of Q3 2022),
    which explains why, despite the stronger EBITDA, net cash
    remains at €0.5bn. The orderbook remained solid €9.4bn (in
    line), slightly lower than €9.5bn at the end of Q2 2023.
    Upped 2023 adj. EBITDA margin guidance
    Despite BAM stating that market conditions remain
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    4
    challenging, the 2023 guidance is upped. BAM now expects
    to generate an adj. EBITDA margin of approximately 4.5%
    versus a guidance previously that called for an adj. EBITDA
    margin of at least 4%. We are at 4.2% for 2023. One
    should not read into the improved EBITDA guidance that
    there will not be any issues with the Children’s Hospital as
    that is to be completed in the course of Q2 2024. But the
    upped guidance is certainly positive, as is the BAM
    statement that ‘following constructive engagement with
    the client, BAM looks forward to handing over the project
    within the revised agreed timescale’. As expected, there is
    no news on the fiscal authority and public prosecutor
    investigation.
    2023 consensus to move up, we assume
    Bloomberg 2023 consensus sales is at €6.0bn and given
    that normally Q4 is at least €100m stronger in sales than
    Q3, consensus sales is expected to move up c. 3%.
    Unfortunately, there is no company compiled consensus
    and Bloomberg shows an 2023 consensus EBITDA margin
    of 3.9%. But we do not know whether that includes the JV
    results and the PPP results, which are not part of IFRS
    EBITDA. But we assume that the street did not count on 5.
    1% in Q3 so it is likely that consensus moves up a little.
14. HenkdeV 20 november 2023 10:43

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    Dank voor het plaatsen Ono.
    
    Dat is toch nog wel een aardig rijtje risicovolle posten in de boeken.
15. Tsjonge 20 november 2023 10:51

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    Je kan nog altijd uitstappen hahaha. Ik blijf volharden in de overtuiging de bouwaandelen na de verkiezingen verder stijgen
16. Zwijnash 20 november 2023 11:24

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    Ono - winst niet dat je mag plaatsen, dacht het was verboden
17. HenkdeV 20 november 2023 11:27

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    quote:

    Daytripper schreef op 20 november 2023 10:51:

    Je kan nog altijd uitstappen hahaha. Ik blijf volharden in de overtuiging de bouwaandelen na de verkiezingen verder stijgen
    

    Na de verkiezingen is nogal een rekbaar begrip. Dat kan ook over 3 jaar zijn:-)).
    
    Alom wordt er vanuit gegaan, dat er niet zo snel een nieuwe regering zal zijn.
    En voor die nieuwe regering ander/nieuw beleid heeft gemaakt, ben je nog eens heel veel tijd verder.
    En dat eventuele nieuwe beleid zal door alles en nog wat getoetst worden.
    
    Maar misschien kun jij jouw overtuiging eens onderbouwen, ben zeer benieuwd.
18. Rob 20 november 2023 11:35

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    Eigenlijk had ik een plukje van 1100 met een GAK van 2.1281 bij 2,50 willen verkopen, maar ja, zolang die nog stijgt. Deze week maar afwachten. Naar de 3 euro is nog een lange weg en winst is winst.
19. IQ 20 november 2023 11:50

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    quote:

    Rob schreef op 20 november 2023 11:35:

    Eigenlijk had ik een plukje van 1100 met een GAK van 2.1281 bij 2,50 willen verkopen, maar ja, zolang die nog stijgt. Deze week maar afwachten. Naar de 3 euro is nog een lange weg en winst is winst.
    

    Gewoon jaartje wachten, dividend van minimaal 8% is ook lekker.
20. OnoMatopee 20 november 2023 11:52

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    quote:

    HenkdeV schreef op 20 november 2023 10:43:

    Dank voor het plaatsen Ono.
    
    Dat is toch nog wel een aardig rijtje risicovolle posten in de boeken.
    

    zelfs Terneuzen en fehmarnbelt waar de overheden garanderen