Edelmetalen Terug naar discussie overzicht

Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 7 september 2005 21:02

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   Uitstekende informatieve goudcolumn
   Goud
   
   Deel I: Fiat valuta en de ECB
   
   edelmetaal.wilbertgeers.nl/MS_Goud_de...
   
2. [verwijderd] 8 september 2005 13:09

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   Gold Supply and Demand – Q2 2005 and first half year H1’05 sees gold demand rise 29% in dollar terms and 21% in tonnage terms
   
   www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/g...
   
   In the 12 months to June gold jewellery demand reached $38bn, breaking the previous record
   
   Q2’05 highest ever quarter for gold demand in India, 47% up (tonnage terms) on Q2’04
   
   Q2’05 a Q2 record for Turkey for the third year in succession
   The first half of 2005 saw exceptionally strong demand for gold with Q2’05 proving to be the sixth consecutive quarter of positive growth and the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth in tonnage terms. Full details are given in the press release
   
   Data on the supply and demand for gold are compiled by GFMS Ltd. The company provides a number of tables exclusively for the World Gold Council. The following table shows a summary of gold demand. Links to more detailed tables, and to notes and copyright information, are given below. Please note the restrictions on disseminating these data.
   
   End-use gold consumption1
   
   Notes to tables.
   The source for tonnage data is GFMS Ltd. Data in $ are WGC calculations based on GFMS data.
   
   1. Identifiable end-use consumption excluding central banks.
   2. Provisional.
   3. Exchange Traded Funds and similar.
   4. Identifiable investment less ETFs and similar.
   
   GFMS should be contacted for further information or for past data. In addition certain data are available on Bloomberg.
   
   
   
   
   
3. [verwijderd] 9 september 2005 21:28

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   Print
   
   Gold Climbs to Nine-Month High on Demand for Inflation Hedge
   Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a nine-month high in New York on speculation inflation will boost demand for the precious metal as a hedge against declines in other investments.
   
   U.S. import prices rose 1.6 percent last month, the most in five months, as crude oil costs climbed, a Labor Department report showed today. Economists expected a rise of 1.4 percent, the median in a Bloomberg News survey. RBC Capital Markets today raised its gold-price forecasts into 2007, saying higher commodity prices may spur inflationary pressures.
   
   ``Inflation can definitely give gold a spike,'' said Mark Curran, who owns MC Trading LLC in New York.
   
   Gold futures for December delivery rose $2.30, or 0.5 percent, to $453 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Dec. 7. Prices climbed 1.1 percent this week after gaining 1.5 percent last week.
   
   A futures contract is an obligation to sell or buy a commodity at a set price by a specific date.
   
   Gold will average $485 an ounce in 2006, up from a forecast of $450, and may reach $500 later this year or early next year, RBC analyst Stephen Walker said in the report. He upgraded shares of Newmont Mining Corp., the world's biggest gold producer, to ``top pick'' from ``sector perform.''
   
   Newmont rose $1.35, or 3.3 percent, to $42.15 at 203 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
   
   Gold gained 0.4 percent yesterday as jewelry makers stocked up for the wedding season in India and the year-end holiday season in the U.S. and Europe.
   
   Some investors buy gold in times of inflation, which erodes the value of stocks and bonds. Gold rallied to a 16-year high of $458.70 on Dec. 2 as U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in 2004, the most in four years.
   
   Gold may reach $600 an ounce or $700, ``even $1,000,'' New York technical analyst Louise Yamada said yesterday at a Bloomberg seminar. Yamada, Wall Street's top-ranked chart strategist while at Citigroup Inc., is the lone analyst who last year predicted oil would reach $67 a barrel. Oil soared to a record $70.85 on Aug. 30.
   
   To contact the reporter on this story:
   Claudia Carpenter in New York at Ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
   
   Last Updated: September 9, 2005 14:07 EDT
   
   
   
   Print
   
4. [verwijderd] 12 september 2005 18:37

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   When To Sell Gold Stocks by Doug French
   Gold is continuing its longest bull market ever, 53 months, yet the conference crowd at last week’s Las Vegas Gold & Precious Metals Investment Conference held in Las Vegas was no larger than when the yellow metal was making new lows in 2000.
   
   Despite having world-class speakers like Jim Grant, Dan Denning, Doug Casey and Rick Rule the conference attracted less than half the number of people who typically show up to attend local housing seminars. And while gold aficionados tend to be older and quirkier, Las Vegas real estate seminars attract a number of young, nubile ex-cocktail waitresses and strippers who have abandoned their perfectly honorable former professions to hawk houses, raw dirt or mortgage loans.
   
   A few of the presenting mining companies at the conference have figured out that having an attractive female in the booth does generate more interest in company prospects. And if stripping ratios and drilling results are delivered with a charming British accent, all the better.
   
   Jim Dines, the self-proclaimed original gold (and now uranium) bug, took the feminine approach to new heights. The four girls occupying the Dines Report booth looked to be on loan from Hugh Hefner. Dines would have blended in appropriately if he had donned a silk smoking jacket and been puffing on a pipe. The strategy was obviously effective. By the second day of the conference, most mining company presenters directed attendees to their company booths using the Dines booth as a reference point.
   
   While virtually every speaker was bullish on gold, the metal that really had the conference buzzing was uranium. Despite the metal already tripled in price to about $30 per pound, $50 and $100 per pound were mentioned often as price targets. According to the Dines Report website: "Today, there are 441-nuclear power plants on the planet, with many more planned. Japan intends to add 11 more by the year 2010. China will add 24 to 30 by 2020. Even nuclear-wary Britain has faced the reality that they will need 45 additional plants to meet the Kyoto Treaty targets for reducing gases."
   
   Uranium mines don’t get permitted overnight. The three-to-ten year process is politically charged. Thus, the growing supply deficit in the uranium market will not be satisfied quickly. Although bullish on the metal, broker Rick Rule, cautioned the crowd to be careful investing in uranium mining stocks. "There are only 12 competent management teams spread over 150 companies in uranium," Rule emphasized. "Most of these guys didn’t know how to spell uranium two years ago."
   
   Money manager Adrian Day is also long-term bullish and believes that the uranium market is "not a bubble in search of a pin." The bombastic Dines, described the uranium market as the "biggest thing I’ve ever seen." He recommends buying the speculative uranium shares, believing they will soar in price in a "major mania" that will dwarf the dot.com craze.
   
   Ian McVity, who writes the Deliberations on World Markets newsletter, made the interesting point that it was miners looking for uranium in northern Nevada in the 1970’s that found the large gold deposits that now generate eight million ounces per year.
   
   Other than economist, author and newsletter writer Mark Skousen, everyone who spoke at the conference was bullish on gold and bearish on the dollar and stock market. Skousen doesn’t believe that the dollar will collapse and "is not as bullish on gold as others at this conference." Skousen believes that the stock market is in a secular bull market, while resources are in a secular bear market. According to Skousen, gold has lost its luster as an inflation hedge, with other instruments such as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), commodity index funds, energy funds and real estate now taking its place. "Gold has been marginalized," Skousen said.
   
   Despite gold rising 75 percent in price during this latest bull market, gold miners have not made any money. Thus, mining stocks have not done well. The costs of mining have gone up more than the ore price. The irreverent Rick Rule said that he has been "disabused of the senior gold producers. They lose tremendous amounts of money when the price of gold is low but don’t make any money when prices are high." Rule prefers to own companies that find gold and then the do the sensible thing: nothing. Spending money to liquidate your product when the product is going up in price is "felony stupid," according to Rule.
   
   Rule’s company Global Resource Investments, Ltd. specializes in junior gold stocks and other natural resource investments. When describing one of his favorite stocks, he warned that the management was "promotionally challenged." The company is "handicapped because they refuse to lie which puts them at a disadvantage when raising funds," Rule quipped.
   
   Doug Casey, who authored the investment classic, Crisis Investing, predicted that the Greater Depression is on its way. Economic depression is when standards of living drop appreciably. Casey identified seven reasons for the coming depression: trade and government deficits, coming trade wars, oil production has peaked, the real estate bubble, high public and private debt levels, a dollar crash, and what Casey refers to as, the war on Islam. Government has created all of these problems. "All government does is take our money and redistribute it incompetently," Casey told the crowd.
   
   Casey is also very bullish on gold and gold stocks. He believes that gold stocks will boom more than internet stocks did.
   
   And when will it be time to sell gold stocks? I suppose when I start seeing the same people that I now see at real estate seminars showing up at the gold conference. That will be the time, and that’s a long way off.
   
   September 12, 2005
   
   Doug French [send him mail] is executive vice president of a Nevada bank and associate editor for Liberty Watch Magazine. He is the 2005 recipient of the Murray N. Rothbard Award from the Center for Libertarian Studies.
   
5. [verwijderd] 13 september 2005 08:16

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   Entering a New Phase of the Gold Market
   
   By Jon A. Nones
   12 Sep 2005 at 08:00 AM
   
   St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The dollar's long-term prospects remain in question, as oil prices stay high and Katrina’s impact threatens to slow the U.S. economy. Three analysts at the Gold & Precious Metals Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, see this as gold’s time to shine.
   
   John Doody, Editor of Gold Stock Analyst, sited three reasons why gold is going up in the long-term:
   
   China is going to revalue its currency again.
   Homeland Investment Act has $400 billion dollars captured.
   The Fed is done with interest hikes because of Katrina and gas prices.
   Last week, the Chinese renminbi climbed to 8.0913 against the U.S. dollar, already weakened by Hurricane Katrina's damage to the U.S. economy. This was a new high since July 21 when China ended the decade-long peg to the dollar, and the renminbi has witnessed an appreciation of 2.23% since the reform was launched.
   
   On October 22, 2004, President Bush signed the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004. The Homeland Investment Act provision was included in this broader international tax reform bill.
   
   This legislation would for 1 year remove the disincentive to invest in the United States, enabling U.S. businesses to return up to $400 billion of foreign cash to the United States in the year following enactment. With more money comes less value in the dollar.
   
   Oil and gas prices spiked after Katrina hit land. The rumour on Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will need to take a breather in its 14-month interest-rate hiking campaign. Some Fed watchers have argued that the Fed will take a pause as soon as the upcoming Sept. 20 meeting.
   
   Doody predicts a reduction of current account deficits in September, but said that this will be just a bump in the road for gold.
   
   “I think we’re still in a bull market,” Doody concluded.
   
   James Grant, Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, described gold futures as being elastic, saying gold buying is “speculation not investment.” However, he too remains bullish for the future, offering these two points:
   
   Many new dollars in circulation post-Katrina.
   China and foreign markets will increase gold buying.
   The cost of Katrina to the federal government is now up to $200 billion - making it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Analysts have estimated half a trillion dollars when all is said and done, which equals more inflation.
   
   According to a report released last week by the World Gold Council, global demand for gold in the second quarter totaled 949 tonnes, up 14% from a year earlier, bolstered by purchases from the jewelry sector. The rise in demand outpaced supply coming into the gold market from mines and central banks, which totaled 895 tonnes. Worldwide jewelry demand alone increased 15% to 728 tonnes.
   
   Demand in China was up 12% year on year, as its thriving economy continues to boom. India accounted for 517.5 tonnes of the world's 2,611 tonnes of jewellery demand last year. It also accounted for 100.2 tonnes of the 342.7 tonnes of gold purchased by retail investors.
   
   “The gold market is too strong to stop,” Grant said.
   
   Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, had one primary argument: Katrina is going to hurt the economy and lower the value of the dollar.
   
   “A decline in the dollar is inevitable,” he said.
   
   According to the Congressional Budget Office, Katrina could cost the U.S. over 400,000 jobs and shave up to 1% off the nation's economic growth in the second half of the year.
   
   Economists polled by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter have said the devastation caused by the storm had caused a severe supply shock in the energy sector, driving up prices and threatening consumer spending through the end of 2005.
   
   Top forecasters cut their outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2005 and said inflation would likely be higher in the aftermath of Katrina.
   
   “We’re entering a new phase of the gold market,” said Day. “This time next year we could very well be $50 higher.”
   
6. [verwijderd] 14 september 2005 08:09

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   Deel II Goud: Centrale banken sluiten goud swaps?
   
   In deze korte en snelle goud update een belangrijk verhaal over de fysieke markt. Niet alles is zoals het lijkt, en zoals ik al eerder heb aangegeven ligt het antwoord bij de Centrale Banken als het gaat om de toekomst van goud. Om het onderstaande verhaal goed te snappen is het onontbeerlijk de term goud swap goed te begrijpen.
   
   Goud swaps worden in eerste instantie gebruikt tussen monetaire instellingen. Het goud wordt ingewisseld voor buitenlandse valuta met de verplichting de transactie op een specifiek tijdstip in de toekomst terug te draaien. De monetaire instelling die de valuta in handen krijgt, moet rente betalen over de ontvangen valuta.
   
   lees verder deze onderstaande informatieve columns over de invloed van CBs op de prijsontwikkeling van goud.
   
   beursplaza.com/columns.asp?id=42
   
   of
   
   edelmetaal.wilbertgeers.nl/columns.html
7. [verwijderd] 15 september 2005 18:35

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   contact met WG is gelegd.
   HTG
   
   15 September 2005
   Gold hits 17-year high as some investors swap currencies for bullion
   Source: Bloomberg
   
   Gold prices rose to a 17-year high in New York as investors bought the precious metal as an alternative to currencies.
   
   "It shows a growing lack of respect for all currencies," said Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Gartman Letter. "You can't have a bull market in gold until it starts going up in all currencies, and that's what it's doing now."
   
   Argentina's central bank may increase gold reserves as a hedge against inflation and protection against a financial crisis, Juan Ignacio Basco, bank head of market operations, said yesterday in London. Increased reserves helped South America's second-biggest economy stabilize its currency and revive investor confidence after a $95 billion debt default triggered a plunge in the peso in 2002.
   
   Gold futures for December delivery rose $4.30, or 1 percent, to $458 at 8:59 a.m. an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier reached $459, the highest since June 1988.
   
   Gold has gained 5.4 percent since Aug. 30, climbing in 10 of the past 11 sessions.
   
8. [verwijderd] 15 september 2005 22:05

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   Gold Breaks Out Against the Euro
   
   Gold closed today in New York at €372.10 per ounce (€11.96 per goldgram). That's a new record high for gold against the 5-year old euro. It's a 15-year high against one of the euro's predecessors, the German mark. The significance of this breakout can be seen on the following chart.
   
   Voor de grafiek lees goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current
   
   After knocking against the €350 (€11.25) level for years, gold has finally broken through this overhead resistance.
   
   Who was the persistent seller at this level? We know it wasn't the gold mining companies because they have on balance during this period been buying back their hedges, not adding new ones. The seller wasn't the gold accumulating countries in the Middle East or Asia because trade statistics show that they have continued to import gold, not dishoard it. It hasn't been the hedge funds because they are not in business to stop trends, but rather, to ride them – which the CFTC's commitment of traders report shows they have been trying to do. So who's left?
   
   It's the central banks. GATA has proven this to be the case, and if you are not familiar with the work GATA has done or seen the impressive body of evidence it has compiled, then please review the material available for free on its website, www.GATA.org.
   
   Does the break above €350 (€11.25) mean that central banks are now out of the picture? Probably not. They have one mission – to make the dollar look as if it is worthy of being the world's reserve currency when in fact it is not. They undertake many actions trying to accomplish this objective, and one of these is to keep a lid on gold.
   
   After all, gold is the barometer by which all currencies are measured. A rising gold price demonstrates to the world that central bankers are doing a poor job managing national currencies.
   
   The scheme works like this. Politicians want the money central bankers create 'out of thin air'. This newly created money debases national currencies, but central bankers cannot say no to the governments they have been created to serve. So to make believe that all is well with, for example, the world's most important currency as well as its reserve currency, the dollar, central banks sit on gold. They have been in effect trying to kill the messenger.
   
   What do central banks do now? It is possible that they have run out of gold to sell. It is more likely that they have just 'thrown in the towel' for now in order to preserve what gold they have left. After all, it takes physical metal – and not just paper promises to deliver metal – to continue their effort to try keeping a lid on the gold price. So maybe central banks have decided to retreat to higher levels, at which point they will again start trying to keep a lid on gold. If they do, the logical level at which they 'circle the wagons' is $505 ($16.23), a level that marks 24-year highs.
   
   My year-end target remains the same – $500 and €400, which implies a $1.25/€ rate of exchange.
   
   Because it has been held back by central banks, gold has a lot of catching up to do with other commodities that are near or at record highs. That is the reality that always occurs when central bank try to thwart the power of the free market. Central banks can bend the market to their will for a while, distorting prices in the process, but the market always wins. And the market is about to prove this point to central banks yet again. All we need now is for gold to close in New York above $456 to make a new 17-year high, which is an event that could happen at any time.
   
   One last point. In my last alert I stated: “It looks to me like gold is sitting on a rocket pad and is ready for lift-off.” You can see what I meant by looking at the above chart. The red and green lines define the launch pad, and the gold price is the rocket. Its launch has just begun.
   
   ___________________________________________
   
   Published by GoldMoney
   Copyright © 2005. All rights reserved.
   Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com
   
   This material is prepared for general circulation and may not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who reads it. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representations or warranty, express or implied, is made by GoldMoney, its affiliates, representatives or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect the writer's judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. To the full extent permitted by law neither GoldMoney nor any of its affiliates, representatives, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior consent of GoldMoney.
   
   
   
9. [verwijderd] 16 september 2005 08:39

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   GOUD NIEUWE HIGH
   
   Nu het zilver nog.
   
   There was some interesting news on the Silver ETF today...
   
   NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuters ) - Barclays Global Investors was still awaiting
   regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for
   its iShares Silver Trust, the asset management arm of Barclays Plc
   ( BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research ) said on Thursday, denying a report that
   its application was rejected.
   
   Read the entire article go to
   
   click here
   today.reuters.com/investing/financeAr...
   
   One associate of mine Mr. Sean Rakhimov has recorded a broadcast on
   emerging silver producers go to
   www.freemarketnews.com/eRADIOLaunch.a...
   
   Sean has helped your publisher on numerous occasions and his positive "can
   do" attitude is most welcomed. Having come from Russia his political views
   and what he currently sees taking place in America are most enlighting but
   that is a story for another time.
   
   The Silver Summit Schedule is available at
   www.silver-investor.com/thisweek.html
   
   Your publisher is working well into the night to complete the workbook for
   the Silver Seminar and then it is off to Florida to tape The Mining Industry Review. One segment will feature Bill Murphy of GATA to review the Gold Rush 21 event and also give us his views on the gold market currently.
   
   Mr. Morgan will be traveling or at the Silver Summit from September 19th
   through September 24th. If you need assistance you can contact
   support@silver-investor.com or leave a message.
   
   Things have started to cool off here in the great northwest. However the gold market continues to heat up with gold pushing toward 17 year highs in nominal terms. All subscribers know my thoughts on that since silver has already accomplished this feat but "nominal" is the key word.
   
10. [verwijderd] 17 september 2005 09:44

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    Silver's as good as gold; short supplies set to lift prices as high as $50
    By Myra P. Saefong CBSMarketWatch.com
    Friday, September 16, 2005
    www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?gu...
    A87C-61FABA1D1E32%7D&siteid=mkwt
    
    SAN FRANCISCO -- After suffering from a huge supply deficit for more than a decade, silver may be primed for a big rally.The financial market has simply put too small a price on the much
    sought-after white metal that's often seen as a sidekick to gold.
    
    Silver, which is used in a wide variety of applications in several industries, including the electronic, jewelry, and photographic sectors, currently trades around $7 an ounce on the New York
    Mercantile Exchange.
    
    That's a far cry from the peak level around $50 in the 1980s, but that may change soon enough.
    
    "No other commodity exists in such short supply as silver," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, and "silver demand has exceeded production for 15 years now."
    
    Indeed, the physical silver market operated in a deficit for the fifteenth-consecutive year in 2004, according to the CPM Group, a commodity research and consulting-services provider based in New
    York.In its Silver Survey report released in late August, the group estimated that newly refined supplies of 750 million ounces fell short of industrial demand by 44.5 million in 2004. And the deficit, though not quite as high, will likely reach 31.4 million this year, with total supply estimated at 774.3 million.
    
    The supply deficit could spell more gains for silver on the futures market, which posted a climb of around 40%, or $2 an ounce, over the past two years.
    "As you analyze silver's potential, the fundamentals become powerfully bullish," said Paul Mladjenovic, a New Jersey-based certified financial planner at PM Financial Services.
    The "chronic silver shortage ... is becoming more acute," he said.
    Overall demand is growing as silver is used in cell phones, military technology, and a range of new applications in the healthcare sector and alternative energy technology, said Mladjenovic.
    
    But John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service, argued that while production costs are rising, demand is actually flat.
    
    The market saw total demand in 2004 at 794.5 million ounces, according to the CPM Group. For 2005, it's estimated to be 805.7 million.
    
    Person doesn't believe the lows are in for the year, but December silver prices should find their support level close to $7 to $6.95 and that "should be the next buying opportunity investors can take
    advantage of," he said. December silver closed at near $7.08 an ounce on Thursday
    
    Silver has been riding off the back of gold futures, which recently traded at their highest level since March. And with gold expected to climb, don't expect silver to stay behind.
    
    Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, believes that the poor man's gold will continue to "play second fiddle to its namesake, and while it can have its own moments in the sun, it will
    continue to need a higher gold price to help lift it up."
    
    Gold's move into the $450s will be an "important signal to investors that the metals are still alive and ready to march upward," said Schmidt.
    
    Indeed, Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman at precious metals consultancy GFMS Ltd., expects gold to climb toward the $480 mark before the year is over because of rising investor demand for the metal."A similar phenomenon is likely in silver, a metal that historically tends to follow gold," he said. It's true that silver is an industrial metal and is affected by economic demand, but even during the depression of the 1970s, "silver tracked gold because the Fed was creating 'money' -- actually, banking system credit -- out of thin air," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter.
    
    "More 'money' and credit was created 'out of thin air' by the Fed and world central banks in the single decade of the 1970s than the entire cumulative total in all the world's previous history," he said, citing an academic study done in the early 1980s.So it's no wonder that silver went to $50 from $1.29 an ounce, and gold to $850 from $35 in early 1980.And in the framework of a rising gold price, silver is actually the "coiled spring," Schmidt said.
    
    Traders "will move to silver for the unrealized opportunity it represents," he said, noting that the silver market simply "cannot take incremental demand without its price being moved materially
    higher."
    "The developments with gold's price will spill over into this market," he said.
    
    Remember also that "silver is a much smaller market than gold, and speculators can usually get a bigger bang for their buck in more volatile silver than in the larger and deeper gold market," said Klapwijk.
    
    Against this backdrop, there's no denying that silver will end the year, in the very least, above the $7 mark.The key levels for silver to watch are $7.25 and $7.50, Schmidt said. "As they are taken out, silver will move on to $9 this fall."
    
    Klapwijk would only go as far to say that "another spike above the $7.50 mark is very likely before year-end."Stafford sees prices reaching $8 or more this year and maybe even trading in the $12 to $15 range in five years.Given silver's growing uses, Mladjenovic expects prices to see a "very strong upward movement" during 2006 to 2008, with silver
    having a "great" chance to top its recent April 2004 high of $8.50 by the end of 2005 or early 2006.
    
    In fact, it should be trading in the $8 to $10 range in the fourth quarter of this year, or no later than the first quarter of 2006, he said.
    
    And "realistically, I expect silver it to hit $50 in 2-5 years," Mladjenovic said.
    
11. [verwijderd] 18 september 2005 04:02

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    GOUD = GOLDEN!
    
    Gold-rush v3.0 coming.
    
    Het was normaal dat wanneer de Dollar een duik nam de goudprijs het tegenovergestelde deed. Het was normaal dat goud een onderbeentje bleef in al die gevallen; maar dat goud een skydive *UP* maakt gedurende een *aantrekkkende* Dollar markt... doet iets vermoeden.
    
    als de "inflatie" van goud nog weggewerkt moet worden in de huidige goudprijs t.o.v. de Dollar dan heeft de goudprijs in Dollars nog een leuke curve te maken, en die is echt niet richting Zuiden.
    
    Goud = on a roll... and so it should be, hoor ik om me heen, maar het begint bijna "grappig" te worden. Ik heb mijn posities in goud nu dus ook versterkt met Turbo's (how lame, but how cheap and how real)...
    
    Gegroet, addergebroed,
    
    /Jay Tea
12. [verwijderd] 20 september 2005 08:49

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    Why is the yellow metal not taking off?
    www.khaleejtimes.com/Displayarticle.asp?
    section=georgekleinmanandpvramanathan&xfile=data/georgekleinmanandpvramanathan
    /2005/september/ columnistgeorgekleinmanandpvramanathan_
    september1.xml&col=yes
    OUR June 27 article in KT (entitled A Silver Opportunity) called for higher gold prices. We have been consistently bullish on gold for quite some time now. While gold prices have been generally buoyant, we have not seen any of the significant spikes that one would normally associate with a potentially highly inflationary background of galloping energy prices and runaway deficits.
    
    Gold closed around USD 459 this past Friday (Sep 16) with a monthly change of +4.3 percent and a one year change of +13.53 per cent. Infact it has only just regained its March 11th high of 458.5. Why is gold so slow in going up? Here is an interesting insight from Doug Casey.
    
    After the price of gold spiked over $850 in January 1980, gold production increased substantially - and it stayed up, even with the steep falloff in gold prices. Production has gone from about 1,200 tonnes per year in 1980 to its current level, over 2,500 tpy.
    
    Where did all that new gold production come from? Aside from the dramatic increase in price incentive in 1980, new technologies have matured, such as heap leaching and satellite prospect identification. In addition, since the collapse of communism, many prospective areas of the world have opened to modern exploration.
    
    Another economic factor keeping the price of gold down recently has been producer hedging. This is a particularly complex part of the puzzle, but in a nutshell, when gold was falling, as it was from 1980 to 2000, many big producers, starting with Barrick, "hedged" against decreasing prices by selling large portions of their future production at substantially over the then-current prices. Since gold is a "carrying charge" market, it's usually possible to sell several years forward at a price reflecting current interest rates and storage costs. In the mid '80s, when gold was, say, $400, it meant they could sell three years out for, say, for a little over $500.
    
    When time came to deliver, the metal might actually have traded for only $350. That was a very smart thing to do — at the time. What wasn't so smart was failing to recognise when gold bottomed out and prices started rising again. The producers have started de-hedging in the last couple of years but they still have massive short positions. By some estimates, to the order of 1,700 tonnes of gold — almost half last year's entire gold supply from all sources — is still sold forward.
    
    Obviously, gold sold forward in the last 5-7 years at prices considerably below today's is costing these companies a fortune, but the big impact on price may come from the bullion banks. Why? Because they could borrow gold from central banks for nominal interest rates (0.5 to 1.0 per cent), sell it on the open market (believing they will be able to return it when they take delivery on futures contracts bought from hedging mines) and invest the proceeds, conservatively, to clear a 4 to 5 per cent profit margin.
    
    This had the effect of increasing the global supply of gold, basically adding already produced (borrowed) reserves onto the production/supply side of the scales.
    
    Another purely economic factor holding the price of gold back may simply be traders selling every time gold approaches $440. How can one say that?
    
    In part because you can see gold retreat time and time again, as it approaches $440 - $450. As Jon Nadler, a senior executive with Kitco.com explains: traders, not being long-term-oriented folks, are not waiting for gold to go to the moon. They are perfectly happy to buy in the $417 - $430 range and sell the moment they can make $20 - $30 per ounce.
    
    In addition, investor fascination with real estate is drawing capital from other investments, even undervalued ones like gold. Why did investors focus on real estate, rather than gold, after the tech bubble burst, the dollar started falling, and broader equities markets started trading sideways? It could be attributed mainly to the fact that gold was in a secular bear market from 1980 to 2001. As a consequence, a whole generation of investors grew up thinking of it as an investment "dog" as well as a monetary anachronism. Strong growth in the past of the U.S. economy and the years of low interest rates have spawned a complacent mentality among most Americans. Given the record levels of debt among individuals and the federal government, this feeling of prosperity must be a form of mass delusion.
    
    Rising interest rates are already putting the squeeze on credit card and mortgage holders with variable interest rates. That could get very ugly, very quickly. Though we are seeing the beginnings of a change in attitude, most institutional and retail investors still think putting capital in gold and other precious metals is a little loony.
    
    When the housing bubble bursts, stocks, bonds, and the depreciating dollar won't provide a refuge. The herd is going to head into commodities in general, and gold in particular. Gold is, after all, the crisis commodity.
    
    Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA) www.gata.org feels a scandal is brewing.Central banks may not be able to control the price of gold, as was the case before 1971, but they have the motive, means and appearance of influencing it. The U.S. in particular, since its dollar has in good measure replaced gold as a reserve asset around the world, has an interest in seeing low gold prices, and a quiet gold market. Why? Because the value of the world's fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, rests mainly upon the confidence of the public.
    
    Unfortunately, confidence is not a stable foundation upon which to build the world economy. Like any attitude, confidence can change over night.
    
    Governments want to maintain confidence at all costs, and the one thing most likely to destroy it and set off a full-scale monetary panic, is a runaway gold price. Therefore, it's quite logical that they will make every effort to suppress the price of gold.
    
    How? The key component of GATA's claims is that the central banks are lending gold to bullion banks and still keeping the gold on their books as reserves. In these "swaps", each bar of gold essentially gets counted twice, exerting a negative pressure on the gold price when the borrowed gold gets sold on the open market.
    
    There's no question that bullion banks are selling borrowed gold - what makes this the stuff of a "conspiracy" is that GATA says the central banks are not being truthful about whether or not they are counting gold not actually in their vaults as reserves.
    
    Specifically, GATA chairman Bill Murphy says the central banks are reporting an aggregate of about 31,000 tonnes of gold held in reserve, but only have about half as much in their vaults. The amount of gold they actually have on hand may be as little as 14,000, or even 12,000 tonnes.
    
    Murphy says the IMF claims it "recommends" that swapped gold be excluded from reserve assets. However, some central banks report otherwise. For example, a footnote on the central bank of the Philippines web site contradicts the IMF's claim: "Beginning January 2000, in compliance with the requirements of the IMF's reserves and foreign currency liquidity template...gold swaps undertaken by the BSP with non-central banks shall be treate
13. [verwijderd] 21 september 2005 09:42

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    "Tot nu toe (nog) geen krachtige acties van het PPT terwijl de zogenaamde 6 $ Rule vandaag weer gebroken.
    Zijn de centrale geleide ingrepen verleden tijd?"
    
    Kan het zo zijn dat de macht van de CB's minder groot is dan velen denken?
    
14. [verwijderd] 21 september 2005 22:44

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    Centraal geleid ingrijpen!
    
    

    quote:

    honky tonk girl schreef:

    "Tot nu toe (nog) geen krachtige acties van het PPT terwijl de zogenaamde 6 $ Rule vandaag weer gebroken.Zijn de centrale geleide ingrepen verleden tijd?" Kan het zo zijn dat de macht van de CB's minder groot is dan velen denken?

    De fysieke vraag is al jaren groter dan het aanbod.
    De carry trade van CBs met de zogenaamde Bullion baken heeft er toe geleid dat naar schatting 2/3 van de CB goud voorraden defintief is verdwenen voornamelijk naar azie. Zoals bij alle grote economische bewegingen geeft het verschuiven van goudvoorraden aan wanneer een economie of beschaving ten onder aan het gaan is. Dit proces kan overigens heel wat tijd vergen. Het is dan ook niet voor niets dat alle zellen dienen te worden bijgezet om de westerse beschaving zoals wij die kenden in stand te willen houden.
    
    Gold tops $475 in after-hours trade
    Metal's price at highest since late 1987; other metals up By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
    Last Update: 4:14 PM ET Sept. 21, 2005
    
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed above the key $475-an-ounce level in after-hours trading Wednesday, extending gains after closing out the regular session at their highest level since late 1987.
    
    A rise in crude oil to a high above $68 a barrel continued to feed concerns about inflation.
    
    Crude futures jumped to a high of $68.10 a barrel in New York. The benchmark contract thus moved within hailing distance of its all-time high of $70.85 reached Aug. 30. See Futures Movers.
    
    "Gold is hitting new highs ... on higher energy costs and concerns over rising deficit spending due to the potential added weight on the government to provide relief aid in case 'Rita' causes more damage to a major city," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.
    
    "Inflation is alive and well -- even the Federal Reserve sees it that way" and that's why gold has hit the $475 level, he said.
    
    In evening trade, gold for December delivery was last at $475, up $2.40 after touching a high $475.30. It closed the regular session at $473.20, up $3.20.
    
    "While gold can consolidate and even test past heavy resistance in the $450 area, the surprises have been, and should continue to be, to the upside," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.
    
    Gold is "holding up after the Federal Reserve's rate increase," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
    
    The latest U.S. rate increase should have been the catalyst for a move lower in the precious metal, but global purchases of gold have been sufficiently strong to cancel out the Fed, he said.
    
    The "rate increase on top of hurricane damage means that a recession is increasingly on the horizon," Schmidt said, adding such a combination is "bad news for dollar and deficits."
    
    From here, prices will likely "see some backing and filling but overall, these markets remain healthy," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "If the recent dollar rally stalls and turns south this would certainly underpin the precious metals markets," he said.
    
    Other metals futures in New York closed higher.
    
    December silver closed up 4 cents at $7.415 an ounce. October platinum traded at $936.30 an ounce, up $2.50, and December palladium rose 60 cents to $203.15 an ounce. December copper added 4.05 cents, or 2.4%, to close at $1.7065 a pound.
    
    On the equities side, two key metals-mining indexes mirrored the strength in gold.
    
    The CBOE Gold Index (GOX: news, chart, profile) closed at 101.15, up 3.8%, and the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU: news, chart, profile) rose 3.4% to end the session at 111.27.
    
    Among the bigger index-component gainers, shares of Anglogold Ashanti (AU: news, chart, profile) climbed 4% and Harmony Gold Mining (HMY: news, chart, profile) added 5.7%.
    
    
    Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
    
15. [verwijderd] 24 september 2005 12:45

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    2 interessante goud artikelen!
    
    $500 gold -- get used to it again Consensus clearly bullish for the long term
    By Tomi Kilgore CBSMarketWatch.com
    Friday, September 23, 2005
    
    www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?gu...
    
    NEW YORK -- Yuppies, "perestroika," and a stock market crash.
    
    Gordon Gekko made the infamous "greed is good" speech in the movie "Wall Street," and Michael Douglas won an Oscar for playing that role.
    
    The good ol' days or not, 1987 was the last time the price of gold per ounce reached the $500 mark. While the world is a very different place 18 years later, gold's recent spike suggests a return to that level is inevitable.Despite some concerns that the near-term upward path might be a bit bumpy and the reluctance by analysts to make projections on how high the price could eventually go, the consensus is clear -- be it for fundamental or technical reasons -- this is just the beginning of a long-term bull market.
    
    Gold for December delivery had reached a 17-year high of $479 in electronic trading on Thursday. On Friday, gold fell $3.10 to $467.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but was still up $29.10, or 6.6% since the end of August.
    
    Prudential technical analyst Ralph Acampora said gold's spike up to 17-year highs should not deter investors from buying. His reading of the price charts suggests a target of $507 per ounce in the near term.
    
    "Most of the technical indicators suggest that despite an accelerated trend in price, gold is not overbought," Acampora said. "Hence, any hesitation is deemed a buying opportunity."
    
    Commentary: Gold may be ready to break through
    
    By David Nassar CBSMarketWatch.com
    Friday, September 23, 2005
    
    www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?gu...
    
    BOULDER, Colorado -- In my Sept. 14 column I suggested the S&P 500 was likely to pull back to the 1,225 level and that might be a good place to buy.
    
    This level proved important, given the market did pull back to 1,226 and then followed through with a rally to 1,237 -- but as we know this rally has succumbed to the events now upon us.
    
    Therefore, we must reconsider the rally broken, given the broad market is now below 1,225. My hope is that readers acted on this level and were stopped out. As such, much fear is now in the market, and we must consider the next possible levels of support.
    
    These appear to be as low as 1,200 and 1,191 given the momentum of the decline, market breadth and internals (advance/decline). This changes our focus from the broad market to what is now a "market of
    stocks."
    
    Most often we have a stock market, and other times a market of
    stocks, and this week's severely negative price action points us in
    the direction of being highly selective of sectors and stocks.
    
    This leaves some housekeeping on prior columns in which I strongly
    suggested the broker dealers, which I have been recommending for
    several weeks.
    
    Given the extreme fear component now in the market, I suggest
    setting stops on this group at 172.80. If penetrated, exit
    immediately and take profits. Both E-Trade Financial and Ameritrade
    Holding Corp. were noted in particular, which rallied nicely, but
    these positions must now be considered guilty until proven innocent,
    given the current market condition.
    
    Once we gain support within the broad market, I believe this group
    will be quick to react and trade with relative strength, but until
    then -- take profits and wait for a lower entry opportunity.
    
    Now, moving forward, other groups to consider include the gold and
    silver sector, which still have much more room to move higher. From
    a comparison basis, this group still trades low relative to energy --
    a well respected ratio worth considering.
    
    Let me explain.
    
    Prior to the rate hike on Tuesday, the S&Ps were trading higher
    ahead of the news, until Greenspan confirmed the inevitable. This
    drove the dollar higher while gold suffered, as did crude.
    
    The rate hike news was just fine and the market liked Greenspan's
    words as a whole -- until the fears in the gulf re-emerged like a
    bad dream. As this fear exposed itself (See the VIX , representing
    the most volatile action in years -- up more than 9% in just one
    day), gold made a 17-year high -- signaling a breakout opportunity
    (which can also be well tracked by the XAU -- suggesting a breakout
    above 111.49 is due any time). Upon viewing the XAU chart, this
    technical picture will be clear.
    
    Fundamentally, there is a well-respected ratio between gold and
    energy that also can not be ignored, and currently we see that it
    takes seven barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold. This 7:1 ration
    is considered to be quite low. If the dollar weakens further over
    the coming months -- as many currency analysts believe, gold will
    have both fundamental and technical support to go higher --
    expanding this ratio. This could be a source of opportunity to buy
    low volume pullbacks in gold.
    
    Currently we have gold trading at approximately $475/once (divide by
    seven for the approximate price of crude), and if the dollar does in
    fact find resistance, we will see a higher gold price, which in turn
    will increase the gold/crude ratio.
    
    You may think the gold/crude metrics are completely independent of
    each other, but in fact they are historically accurate gauges of
    economic stability and have great influence on the monetary policy.
    
    That stated, this puts pressure on the Fed to create a soft landing
    for short-term rates, and many believe the one vote of the 9:1
    decision to raise on Tuesday was more telling of the fed's future
    plan than the nine votes to raise or wording that followed.
    
    Traditionally speaking, a weaker dollar increases the price of gold.
    Conversely, rising interest rates supports the dollar (making it
    more attractive to hold) and weakens gold, and it is this
    fundamental principal that one must consider -- regardless of the
    recent divergence whereby both the dollar and gold have shown
    strength.
    
    The fact is, gold has been far more resilient than the dollar and
    the dollar has received great help from the Fed (higher interest
    rates improve the attractiveness of the dollar). And while this year
    has been good for the dollar, the dollar has been consolidating
    since early summer and has only shown modest strength recently
    compared to gold.
    
    This strength is likely to dissipate even more as the Fed's rate
    hike campaign is likely nearer the end than the beginning or middle -
    - this seems certain given the campaign began in August 2001 and
    events of today, while much different in nature, are growing more
    concerning.
    
    While the Fed stated it will remain "accommodative" and suggested
    again that rates could be raised at a "measured" pace, gold seems to
    be a caged animal ready to break through.
    
    The next FOMC meeting is on Nov. 1, and perhaps the best
    opportunities to buy gold will be on any weakness as the result of
    these rate hikes which appeared to be numbered.
16. [verwijderd] 26 september 2005 09:18

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    COT GOLD REPORT: Gold Pause Grows More Likely
    By Gene Arensberg 25 Sep 2005 at 12:31 PM
    
    HOUSTON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- A weekly update combining the commitment of traders (COT) data usually released each Friday by the major exchanges, with reporting on the difference between the long and short positions of the largest traders in gold, the Large Commercials (LCs) as of the previous Tuesday, with technical commentary by Gene Arensberg.
    
    Outlook Snapshot: September 25, 2005. (Cautiously bearish, short term).
    
    Caution flags flying. A powerful global-investor-driven technical breakout in gold has occurred, but the market is coming off being overbought and the total number of LC net short positions is quite high.
    
    Please see largely expanded commentary and outlook below.
    
    (Note: Weekly COT comments moved, see below).
    
    This Week’s Observations: Friday, 9-23-05
    
    COT Changes. For the 4-week period (3 reporting weeks) from 8/30 to 9/20 gold gained a whopping $32.65 or 7.6%. As of the Tuesday cutoff date for the commitments of traders report (COT), the Large Commercials (LCs) have added 47,427 contracts net short for the period to total 187,077 contracts net short. That is a pace of 1,453 contracts per dollar increase in the metal, well below the average rate of change, which is usually, repeat usually, consistent with a continuation of the uptrend.
    
    A low rate of change during increases in the large commercial net short position (LCNS) relative to increases in gold is usually short-term bullish, but as of Tuesday the open interest on the COMEX had ballooned to a new all-time record of 371,373 open contracts. That tops the November, 2004 previous record of 370,786 contracts. To give an idea of how much gold that represents, as of Tuesday there were commitments on the COMEX paper gold market totaling the equivalent of a massive 1,153 tonnes of gold metal!
    
    For the week ending 9/20, the LCs added 28,288 contracts to the net short side. While the number of contracts added short is large, it works out to just 1,598 contracts per dollar advance of gold and is considerably under the average pace.
    
    The record open interest is not surprising given gold’s technical breakout and strong rush forward to new 18-year highs. But out of caution it should be noted that record open interests on the COMEX usually occur near a short-term peak for the metal. Had the rate of change of the COT for the week been greater than the norm, given the very large LCNS this report would have turned fully bearish instead of cautiously bearish.
    
    Gold Chart. Gold began the week with a solid follow-through to the breakout move of the previous week, zooming higher in a Hurricane Rita-assisted thrust which peaked Thursday intra-day at $475.50.
    
    What a magnificent, but steep rise the metal has enjoyed since Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast (8/30) and gold bounced neatly off its 200-day moving average at $431.65. The market is perhaps a little overheated on Hurricane Rita news and significantly overbought. By Friday, reported fund liquidations and profit taking ahead of the weekend clipped the top off to close at $463.10.
    
    The last two times gold reached overbought on the daily chart, a standard bull market correction ensued. However, (and this week’s major caveat), neither of those two times followed a dual breakout. While the odds favor a further correction short-term, corrections after breakouts often find support at or near the breakpoint ($456).
    
    Unless spot gold can move below the previous turning high of $449.50, the chart will remain decidedly bullish, just coming off being overbought. It is not unusual for a breakout to soon test the break point from above, which if held, can mean a renewed thrust to an even higher high. (See Gold chart at bottom).
    
    Gold ETF. The largest gold exchange traded fund [NYSE:GLD] added 3.1 tonnes of gold this week to yet another high water mark of 207.44 tonnes. New wealth continued to flow into GLD. After less than a year in business, the fund topped the $3 billion mark in NAV for the first time in the prior week. (See Link to streetTRACKS Gold Trust below).
    
    Euro Gold. Since last Friday, the Euro took another hit in Dollar terms. Euro gold jumped an additional € 9.28 for the week closing at € 384.28 (9/23) on the cash market and just off its all time high. Up until Thursday, gold gained significant purchasing power against all the currencies, but gave back some of that gain on Friday. After a multi-year trading range breakout above € 350 in June, “Euro-Landers” have apparently rediscovered the yellow metal. This is an important development in the gold market. Traders should not underestimate the amount of capital “The Continent” might bring to the table as they begin to allocate a growing (but still tiny) percentage of their wealth to precious metals. (See the Dollar, Euro and Gold performance comparison chart below).
    
    US Dollar. Last week’s report said, “Unless the dollar sells off sharply, it would not surprise me if the LCs are resolutely net short the Greenback as of the next COT report.” Sure enough, from 9/13 to 9/20, the LCs flipped from 1,355 contracts net long to 5,329 contracts net short in just one week. A swing of 6,684 contracts. This, as the Index climbed another 88 basis points from 87.75 to 88.63. That is a hot rate of change of 76 net short contracts added per basis point increase on the Index suggesting that the LCs and technically minded dollar bears were evidently expecting the 50-day moving average to hold as resistance.
    
    But that didn’t happen. By Friday (9/23) the Index had jumped another 60 basis points to close at 89.23. Given this action, further dollar advances should become increasingly difficult short-term. (See link to US Dollar Index graph below).
    
    Gold Indexes. The HUI gold share index failed to confirm gold’s new 18-year highs. The index closed the week at 236.97 just under 10 points below the 9/19 peak of 246.84.
    
    HUI, Daily, April 2004 to Date
    
    HUI:Gold Ratio: Even as gold moved sharply higher in U.S. dollar terms early in the week, the HUI:Gold ratio languished, suggesting a pause in share buying pressure. The 9/16 breakout is undergoing a test from above one week after.
    
    HUI:Gold Ratio, Daily, June 2003 to Date
    
    Commentary and Outlook: (Cautiously bearish, short term.)
    
    Caution flags flying. A powerful global-investor-driven technical breakout in gold has occurred, but the market is coming off being overbought and the total number of LC net short positions is quite high.
    
    The HUI/Gold spread on the 19th reached 228.66, meaning that the metal got a little ahead of the shares for a change. The HUI failed to answer the continued move up for the metal the early part of this week.
    
    Last week’s report mentioned, “While the rally may continue, next week would not be at all too soon to look for a test from above of the recent breakouts on both gold metal and the shares.” Hurricane Rita probably delayed by one week a healthy backing and filling type correction as gold needs to work off its overbought condition to remain “healthy.”
    
    This report turns cautiously bearish, short-term. Given the recent breakout, we might expect gold to find support somewhere between the most recent turning high of $449 and the November, 2004 peak of $456 and change. If gold consolidates between here ($463.10) and there, and if the LCNS shows a marked reduction in the n
17. [verwijderd] 27 september 2005 21:02

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    Silver Institute Releases Ground-Breaking Report on the Chinese Silver Market-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    (September 27, 2005 – Washington, D.C.) The Silver Institute today released a report on the Chinese silver market entitled, A Review of the Chinese Silver Market. The report was prepared for the Institute by GFMS Ltd., the precious metals research consultancy. The report is available online at no cost on the Institute's home page at www.silverinstitute.org.
    www.silverinstitute.org/China%20Silve...
    
    GFMS has been conducting research in China for over 20 years, and during this time they have compiled a comprehensive database of Chinese silver supply and demand. There are, however, aspects of this complex and diverse market that remain opaque, and with this in mind, the Silver Institute commissioned GFMS to produce a stand-alone report on the Chinese silver market. This report examines all components of Chinese supply and demand for silver, and provides a comprehensive overview of this important market
    
    For many years, China has been the fastest growing of the major economies in the world. It should be no surprise therefore that the Chinese economy bears great potential for silver demand, primarily through industrial uses of the metal – although the country is also growing as a significant photographic market. Looking at the country’s share of global silver fabrication, this has grown from around 3 percent a decade ago, to well above 6 percent in 2004.
    
    According to the report, China is the most important emerging market for silver, with the potential to rival the United States and Japan in industrial demand for the metal, and a major silver jewelry market, both from a fabrication and consumption perspective. China is currently the world’s fourth largest silver miner.
    
    Another important source of supply in China originates from recycled silver scrap, which comes primarily from industrial and photographic uses, and GFMS estimates that recovery from these sources has risen sharply over the past 10 years. However, as has been the case in mine production, the tight control of the market by the People’s Bank of China and the state authorities in the past have complicated estimates of supply from such sources. The report gives GFMS’ latest estimates of the size of the Chinese scrap market.
    
    One of the biggest changes on the supply side in recent years has been the major increase in the amount of silver recovered from imported base metals concentrates. During the early- to mid-1990s, silver supply from such sources was insignificant but, by 2004, the volumes recovered were equivalent to half the country’s domestic mine production.
    
    Finally, the report looks at the issue of stocks of silver in China. GFMS years ago identified China’s contribution to global silver supply from the run down of domestic bullion stocks, mainly from official and quasi-official inventories. The report points out that although GFMS believes that such stocks still exist, they are confident that they stand at significantly lower levels than in the mid-1990s and that Chinese stocks are unlikely to exert much of an influence on the market going forward.
    
    The Silver Institute is a nonprofit international industry association headquartered in Washington, D.C. Established in 1971, the Institute serves as the industry's voice in increasing public understanding of the value and many uses of silver.
    
    For more information, please contact Mike DiRienzo at the Silver Institute (202) 835-0185, or PaulWalker at GFMS +44-7803-232-529.
    For Further Information Contact:
    
    Mike DiRienzo
    The Silver Institute
    1200 G Street, N.W., Suite 800
    Washington, D.C. 20005
    Tel: (202) 835-0185
    Fax: (202) 835-0155
    
    
18. [verwijderd] 30 september 2005 07:39

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    GATA supporters,
    
    The following story is about GATA's hero, Brett Kebble. I cannot tell you how emotional his murder is for us.
    
    GATA exists largely because this man believed in us enough to contribute $50,000 just days after our founding in January 1999. Brett then was completing a course of study at the prestigious Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.
    
    There will be more to come down the road about Brett. He tentatively had been scheduled as a speaker at GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon Territory last month but was forced to cancel at the last minute because of his financial difficulties.
    
    Not only did Brett help bring GATA into existence, he helped underwrite the GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa in May 2001. I told Brett, "GATA needs a bit of dough here, like 20 grand! " Brett replied: "Done!" And it was,
    and the conference was a success.
    
    This guy was remarkable beyond what Planet Wall Street could ever fathom. He combined market acumen, social conscience, South African patriotism, and devotion to democracy. He became a hero for the poor people in the gold-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
    
    By the way, those suffering people are among those GATA is trying to help by exposing the duplicitous and devastating policies of the U.S. government.
    
    Before the U.S. financial market debacle occurs, this is the way MIDAS sees it: If there is ever a congressional investigation of the markets and I get a chance to be heard, I will make Joe McCarthy look like Little Lord Fauntleroy when explaining what has happened.
    
    BILL MURPHY, Chairman
    GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE
    
    *** Precocious Tycoon Rattled Mining
    By David Gleason Business Day, South Africa
    Thursday, September 29, 2005
    
    JOHANNESBURG -- An extraordinary man has been taken from us -- by what was clearly not a casual murder but an assassination intended to send a clear and brutal message.
    
    I first met Brett Kebble in late 1977 when I was appointed a manager at Vaal Reefs gold mine. He was 13 years old then and startled me by engaging me in conversation about the political economy. A year later, he told me he would join the National Party. When I expressed reservations, his response was that Afrikaners had to be engaged, and the
    only way to do it was from within.
    
    Engagement was among Kebble's most prominent driving features. He engaged and embraced a wide range of activities. A lawyer first, Kebble graduated from the University of Cape Town and was snapped up by law firm Mallinicks, where he quickly upset one of the partners but established himself as a smart, unusually capable, commercial lawyer.
    
    His father, Roger, regarded by some as among South Africa's most talented mining men, parlayed the family fortune into ownership of the old and marginal Rand Leases gold mine on the West Rand. From a struggling start, the mine's resurgence was abruptly halted when a small earthquake buckled its operating shaft.
    
    That was when Kebble, who approached neighbour Durban Deep for help and was turned away, conceived the idea of launching a corporate assault on Rand Mines, one of the oldest mining houses. Given the predominance of the houses and their imperious place at the top of the corporate ladder, this was an almost unthinkable proposition. It was certainly breathtaking.
    
    Marshalling the family resources, and with the active involvement of others, notably Peter Flack, who was no stranger to corporate internecine warfare, the group persuaded Mercury Asset Management's Julian Baring to get on board. At the time, Baring ran Mercury's powerful general mining fund and held something approaching 30% of Rand Mines' equity.
    
    The battle for Rand Mines was short, sharp and entirely successful. It was the first time the mining establishment had been challenged -- and beaten -- on its own territory.Among those who Rand Mines pushed into the front line of its defense was Mark Bristow, now CE of Randgold Resources and among Kebble's bitterest critics.
    
    Randgold was in the right place at the right time when Gencor, then under Brian Gilbertson, the architect of its translation into Billiton and later BHP Billiton, decided to shed some of its least profitable mines -- notably Blyvooruitzicht, Buffelsfontein, and Stilfontein.
    
    With those mines tucked into the group, Kebble turned his attention to South Africa's changing fortunes and to the nascent movement we now call black economic empowerment.
    
    Responding to Anglo-American's decision to unbundle its ownership of JCI in favour of black ownership, Kebble cobbled together an empowerment consortium and twinned himself with former Robben Islander Mzi Khumalo.
    
    After an agonizingly long struggle with a group led by Cyril Ramaphosa -- during which JCI's share price climbed to levels never again seen -- Khumalo and Kebble triumphed.
    
    But the price was high, not only in money terms. When Khumalo transgressed corporate governance norms inside the house, a long-simmering antagonism between the two men burst into a conflagration that cost Khumalo his chairmanship and left the relationship in permanent animus.
    
    There were mistakes along the way. Kebble misread the course of the gold price -- not once but twice. And he came to regret deeply the decision to share ownership of the South Deep project with Canada-based Placer Dome.
    
    Passionately committed to South Africa, Kebble long held the view that the undue enrichment of the new elitists was an extravagance it could not afford and that the only way forward was to enlist the hopes and aspirations of the ruling party's vast grassroots support base.
    
    Neglect of this vital constituency, he believed, would bring radicalism and ruin in its wake. It was this that drove him to become something of a doyen of black empowerment advocates.
    
    Many people, colleagues and peers, disliked him. Some respected his undoubted cleverness. Very few got close to him. He touched them all.
    
    He was devoted to his wife Ingrid and his four children, and his murder leaves a hole not only in their lives but in those of his father, mother Julie, and his brother, Guy, and, in a wider context, in South Africa's too.
    
    I fear what this event may portend.
19. [verwijderd] 7 oktober 2005 22:10

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    NY gold ends higher and near a 17-3/4-year peak
    Fri Oct 7, 2005 2:58 PM ET
    
    NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures finished up and at the highest close in nearly 18 years on Friday, boosted by investment and safe-haven buying amid jitters over economic factors and a threat of attacks in New York, dealers said.
    
    Funds lifted silver futures to a seven-month high, as the precious and industrial metal drew strength from a rally in the copper market and from rallying gold prices.
    
    Benchmark December delivery gold <GCZ5> rose $2.70 to end at $477.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division. It traded from a session low of $472.50 to a life-of-contract high at $479.10, which was the priciest level for COMEX futures since January 1988.
    
    Gold attracted a flurry of investor buying after it shot above a resistance trend-line at $477 an ounce on technical buying in morning trade, said one metals broker in New York.
    
    "People are concerned about inflation or currencies, and you've got fund business, investor and alternative-investment business, and you've got central banks involved," he said.
    
    After first slipping on a smaller-than-expected loss of U.S. jobs in September, gold drew an influx of buying as New York stepped up security on its subways following a warning on Thursday that they were under threat of an attack.
    
    A section of New York's Penn Station was briefly sealed off Friday because of a suspicious item on a public concourse as the city remained on high alert.
    
    "Gold's jittery. There may be a little flight-to-quality buying in the market," said James Quinn, commodities commentator at AG Edwards & Sons.
    
    But he also said that an already-huge spec net long position on COMEX could be capping prices, for now.
    
    Traders were awaiting a CFTC Commitments of Traders report detailing fund holdings due out later this afternoon.
    
    Many traders and analysts feel gold can hit $500 in the near-term, propelled by solid investment and jewelry demand, as well lofty energy prices and forecasts for less mine production in the near future.
    
    Spot gold <XAU=> last fetched $473.80/474.50 an ounce, above Thursday's New York close at $472.00/2.70 but off Friday's 17-3/4-year peak at $475.40. Friday's late fix in London by bullion dealers was $472.70.
    
    COMEX December silver <SIZ5> hit a seven-month high, ending up 17.5 cents at $7.77 an ounce, after trading $7.58-7.785.
    
    "Fund buying around the ring pumped silver up this morning," said a COMEX floor broker. "It is starting to look good, but we have resistance at $7.80."
    
    Spot silver <XAG=> rose to $7.70/73, from $7.54/57 late on Thursday. The fix was at $7.62.
    
    On the board at NYMEX, January platinum <PLF6> gained $8.40 to end at $939.10 an ounce. Futures made a new contract high at $939.50 on Friday. Spot platinum <XPT=> last hit $932/935.
    
    In Tokyo, platinum reached a 19-year high earlier Friday.
    
    NYMEX December palladium <PAZ5> jumped $7.55, or 3.8 percent, to $204.55 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD=> brought $200/203.
    
20. max21 7 oktober 2005 23:22

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    De goud- en zilvermanipulatie is haar laatste fase in gegaan ..
    
    The economist Robert A. Mundell, inventor of the euro,
    
    got top billing Thursday evening at the fall meeting of
    
    the Committee for Monetary Research and Education
    
    in New York but it was Murray Pollitt of Toronto stock brokerage house Pollitt & Co., president of River Gold Mines Ltd. in Canada and veteran engineer and gold share trader, who stole the show.
    
    Pollitt gave the CMRE crowd of about 100 a review of
    
    the gold market that was virtually identical to GATA's.
    
    
    
    His points:
    
    -- Central banks long have been trying to regulate the
    
    gold price and are doing it now.
    
    -- He has it on excellent authority that the
    
    International Monetary Fund recently joined central
    
    banks in leasing gold.
    
    -- He also has it on excellent authority that the
    
    Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, which
    
    collapsed in 1998, was heavily short gold.
    
    -- If the gold price had kept up with the price of oil
    
    and copper and not instead been suppressed by
    
    central banks, it would have reached $800 by now.
    
    -- The gold price suppression scheme is falling apart
    
    RIGHT NOW.
    
    -- Gold's rise this time will be far more dramatic
    
    than its rise in the late 1970s, for back then there
    
    were no gold short positions and no gold derivatives.
    
    Those short positions and derivatives will make
    
    gold's rise many times more explosive this time.
    
    -- The gold price suppression scheme of the central
    
    banks is "a big con game" to persuade people to
    
    hang on to government currencies. It will end in a
    
    "wild ride" for gold and commodities.
    
    -- Even with the rising price of gold, rising fuel
    
    prices lately have been ruining open-pit gold miners
    
    and thus sharply reducing worldwide gold production.
    
    (Of course this decline in production forces the
    
    central banks to cough up more gold from their
    
    reserves to contain the price.)
    
    Also of gold interest among the meeting's other
    
    speakers was market commentator Marshall Auerback,
    
    international equities strategist for RAB Capital
    
    in London, who echoed the remark made at GATA's
    
    Gold Rush 21 conference in August by Adam Fleming
    
    of Fleming Family & Partners in London. That is,
    
    Auerback said, new buyers can overwhelm the central
    
    banks in the gold market. This, Auerback explained,
    
    will require a "paradigm shift" in the thinking of
    
    investors about currencies, but investors indeed are
    
    starting to consider gold a reserve currency along
    
    with the dollar and euro.
    
    Auerback predicted a gold price of $495 by the end
    
    of the year despite what he expects will be continued
    
    pounding by the central banks. He further predicted a
    
    gold price in four figures within two or three years.
    
    The dollar, he added, seems to have topped and will
    
    have to go much lower.
    
    GoldMoney founder James Turk, editor of the
    
    Freemarket Gold & Money Report and consultant to
    
    GATA, told the meeting about electronic gold's
    
    potential for the settlement of international trade,
    
    providing complete independence from government
    
    currencies.
    
    bron www.gata.org