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Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 31 oktober 2005 12:23

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   Gung Ho,
   Al reageer ik niet op elk bericht dat jij hier post, ik lees ze wel altijd met veel belangstelling.
   M.vr.gr.
   brj
2. [verwijderd] 1 november 2005 18:05

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   Ten Rules for Silver Investing
   1. When all else fails, there is silver.
   No one likes to be a prophet of doom, but the simple truth is that silver is the world’s money of lastresort. Should a severe economic collapse occur, leaving paper assets worthless, silver will be primarycurrency for purchase of goods and services. (Gold will be a store of major wealth, but will be pricedtoo high for day-to-day use.) Thus, every investor should own some physical silver-and store a portionof it where it’s accessible in an emergency.
   
   2. Start small- keep it simple.
   Too many investors, upon deciding to beef up the metals portion of their portfolio, buy too much
   physical silver at once-and in the wrong forms. Beginning metals investors should concentrate on
   pure bullion bars or coins, in smaller sizes, looking to pay a minimum premium over the actual metal value. Avoid commemorative coins, decorative items, jewelry and other collectibles, all of which
   carry large premiums and have limited resale markets.
   
   3. Boost the buying power of your dollars with mining shares.If you are a typical investor, you cannot expect to be an expert on silver and the silver market- but you can invest in the people who are. Once you have established a core holding of physical silver, leverage both your knowledge and your buying power by purchasing the stocks of mining companies. These shares are highly responsive to changes in silver prices, frequently producing much higher percentage returns than the metal itself.
   
   4. Dollar – cost average to lower your costs – and increase your discipline. Dollar-cost averaging is an ideal way to implement Rule 2. By making same-dollar purchases at regular time intervals, you wind up buying more metal when prices are low and less when they are high. This approach helps you develop discipline, erasing the “trader’ mentality that infects many market participants and instead fostering an “investment” philosophy. Dollar-cost averaging also eases some of the sting when prices move against you, allowing you to view the downturn as an improved buying opportunity rather than a disappointing loss.
   
   5. Do not get a raw deal from your dealer.
   Because of the specialized nature of the physical metals markets, selection of a well established dealer with a quality reputation is essential. A good dealer will provide timely executation of your trades at fair prices with reasonable fees. Note, as well, that the lowest price is not necessarily the best price. In the past, some dealers who squeezed their price margins too low in order to attract clients were unable to make delivery, leaving those clients holding the bag.
   
   6. What’s yours is yours – so keep it that way.
   While it is wise to keep some of your silver where you can get to it easily, it is also important to keep the bulk of your metal in a safe place- especially as you holdings increase. However, if you establish an account with a brokerage warehouse or other public storage facility, you should make sure your holdings are kept segregated and that you can inspect them when you wish.
   
   7. Silver speculation’s like cough syrup- good in small doses, but too much can make your portfolio sick. Depending on your individual goals and our personal tolerance for risk, a small portion of the assets you commit to silver can be used for speculation, perhaps in futures contracts or options on futures. Never forget, however, that this type of trading is speculation, NOT investment.
   
   8. A little information can mean a lot more dollars.
   You do not need to be a student of the silver market to profit from your metals investments. However,you will greatly increase your chances of success-and the size of your potential profits-if you understand the fundamental factors that drive silver prices and pay regular attention to current supply and demand considerations.
   
   9. Collecting silver is an art- but not really an investment.Owning fine silver items- including rare coins – can provide great enjoyment and personal satisfaction.Like paintings and other artworks, they are beautiful and often quite valuable-and, if you are astute at buying and selling, they can generate large profits. In spite of this, however, always view such holdings as collectibles, NOT as investments. When you need your silver-or simply want to cash in-you do not want to have difficulty selling or be forced to forfeit a large aesthetic premium, both of which are likely with silver rarities.
   
   10. More than 10 percent is too much of a good thing.No matter how good the market looks-or how worried you are about the future of civilized society-you must always remember that silver should make up only a small portion of a well-diversified portfolio. I recommend committing no more than 10 percent of the average portfolio to silver-regardless of how strong you feel about the potential of the metals markets. As printed in The Book of Investing Rules pages 301-303
   Note: Under the current economic conditions, I feel 20-25% is more appropriate, than the original 10 percent per the book global-investor book of investing rules pages 301-303. At the time the book was published the economic conditions were more stable but now that the world is in a war environment the higher allocation is necessary!
3. [verwijderd] 5 november 2005 10:30

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   Powerful Silver ETF Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre
   The Texas Hedge Report November 5, 2005
   Snippet Courtesy of www.texashedge.com
   
   Death by a thousand cuts. At least that is what it felt like for those poor souls who were invested in precious metals during the 1980s and 1990s. By the time the bear market in gold and silver had ended in 2000-01, the asset class had become abandoned by mainstream investors. Gold and silver bulls were seen as a collection of lunatics, survivalists, old cranks, and members of the fringe of society. The World Wide Web had grown large enough to become an outlet for these cult-like gold/silver bugs that were now able to swap stories of conspiracy theories, Y2K advice, and other odd bits and pieces of information.
   
   Fast forward a few years later where bullion and mining stocks have both appreciated handsomely, yet the gold/silver (or anti-Dollar) community is still treated like a social pariah. Sure, on occasion we may see John Hathaway, Bill Fleckenstein or Peter Schiff on CNBC, but they are often lumped into the 'gloom and doom' category in the context of a bull-bear debate. And of course each time gold hits a new high, the mainstream press will trot out one of these guys to give their two cents about the current state of the markets. But as the gold price eases and/or the NASDAQ recovers, these 'gloom and doomers' retreat back to their lairs and its back to the same bullish drivel from permabulls such as Larry Kudlow or John Rutledge.
   
   To date, gold and silver have slowly but methodically grinded their way up from the depths of 2001. There have been painful setbacks, but the trend has continued even in 2005 as the Dollar has appreciated against virtually every major currency to the tune of 10% or more. No matter how well you think gold will do in the coming years, we think silver will do much better. The supply/demand picture is simply much tighter in the tiny silver market. Best estimates are that identifiable silver bullion inventories in total are valued at only about $4 billion dollars. The U.S. gold ETFs alone have attracted nearly that much capital in just about a year's time. If the silver ETF is approved in the next six or so months as planned, it will likely have a profound impact on the demand side of the silver equation.
   
   Yes, we know, you've heard it all before from silver bulls that silver could spike at any time etc. etc. Such talk and relatively little follow-through price-wise is frustrating for those of us who have held physical silver for years, even considering that the grey metal has almost doubled over the last four years. But suppose the new silver ETF, which is currently being reviewed by the SEC, has the power to create an immediate tightness in the metal once it is introduced. Moreover suppose that this scenario is not cooked up by the silver-bug community, but rather, by a group of manufacturers and customers who have dealt with silver for decades. According to Reuters, the Silver Users Association (SUA) "sees the removal of large quantities of physical silver having a negative impact on industry-specific employment as well as the overall economy, both through job losses and inflation. The organization has stated it supports the buying and selling of silver as an investment in general, but it does not endorse a silver ETF because of the potential liquidity problems it would create."
   
   So there you have it. Not from crazy gold bugs trying to smother you with precious metals propaganda, but from a group of mainstream businesses. According to Reuters, "The SUA was established in 1947 to represent the interests of companies that make, sell and distribute products and services related to silver. Members include fabricators, manufacturers and other consumers as well as financial institutions and precious metals firms." If this SUA development is not a confirmation of just how tight the silver market is, then we don't know what else could be.
   
   More follows for subscribers...
   
   November 5, 2005
   Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre
   Archives
   Texas Hedge Report
   email: info@texashedge.com
   
   For more information, go to www.texashedge.com
   
   Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre are internationally known analysts and editors of The Texas Hedge Report, a market newsletter that highlights under and overvalued securities in the equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets.
   
4. [verwijderd] 8 november 2005 11:42

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   GFMS Forecasts $6.80-$6.90 Silver Dorothy Kosich
   '08-NOV-05 04:00'
   
   NEW YORK CITY--(Mineweb.com) In a presentation to the Silver Institute Monday GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk forecast more upside than downside to the silver price in 2006, asserting that "silver has actually done a lot better than gold."
   As of the end of October, total silver fabrication demand was up 4% of which 44% was industrial usage, according to Klapwijk. He predicted that industrial fabrication will rise by about 6% at year end. Klapwijk suggested that industrial demand will continue to be favorable even if silver prices exceed $10 per ounce.
   
   However, Klapwijk predicted that world mine silver production will only rise by 0.4% or 2 million ounces this year with a further 2 million-ounce increase in 2006. He added that higher silver prices have had little impact on mine production and probably won't have much impact in 2006.
   
   Nevertheless, Klapwijk declared that, under current market conditions, there is "very strong support for the price in the $6.80s-$6.90s (especially industrial and Indian buying)." Presently there is "some risk of a correction back to $7-plus basis liquidation of large speculative long positions," he explained, adding that "core investor interest is probably solid unless the price falls very sharply."
   
   While a correction in base metals prices could prove negative for silver, the situation "could be more than offset by gold rallying to the $500 level" in 2006, according to Klapwijk.
   
   Investment demand for silver "was spotty" through September due to "waning interest from funds and private investors," Klapwijk said. However, GFMS noted a "strong pick-up in speculative interest" for the past two months from funds on COMEX and in the Over-The-Counter market. The main driver of this renewed interest has been high silver prices and on the back strong base metals and gold prices.
   
   To hurt industrial demand, Klapwijk said, silver prices would have to soar to $10/oz before manufacturers would consider any substitution. Meanwhile, it would take "substantially higher prices" to increase the desire to recycle scrap metal for its silver.
   
   Meanwhile, Klapwijk said he saw no correlation to suggest that silver had reached a peak similar to peak oil. Since more silver production could come on stream, "you cannot really draw an analogy between the two commodities," he asserted.
   
   
5. [verwijderd] 9 november 2005 18:39

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   Sprott: FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD)
   www.sprott.com/pdf/reasons_to_own_gol...
6. [verwijderd] 10 november 2005 01:18

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   Heeft nu niemand van jullie van PALLADIUM gehoord !
   sterk ondergewaardeerd edelmetaal ,als vervanging voor platina in sieraden (china) en katalysatoren van automotoren. DO YOUR OWN dd. SUC6 ,Jerry
7. [verwijderd] 12 november 2005 11:00

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   Beste Gung Ho
   
   Dank voor uw uitleg aangaande het artikel over de Centrale Banken en
   the Wahington Agreement.
   
   It all makes much more sense to me now!
   
   Hieronder een deel van een stuk (20-10-2005) van Bob Chapman dat volgens mij goed aansluit bij uw visie.
   
   groet,
   HTG
   
   GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS
   
   Gold rallied when the dollar went up recently. Our comment was wait until the dollar folds. It did last week and gold shot up again to a new high. That has the elitists suppressing the gold market really concerned, better yet, confused. It is simple, the physical market is overwhelming and will continue to be so for a long time to come. Incidentally, while this was happening, oil dropped $8.00 a barrel. It shows you gold is not about to be denied. Wall Street is brain dead and has been for many years. They don’t get it and don’t want to get it. They couldn’t think outside the box if they wanted too. The longer they and the investors stay away from gold the better it will be. That means gold will go much higher than it would have otherwise. The world is spiraling out of control and nobody cares except us gold bugs, who really understand what is going on.
   
   The World Gold Council now tells us that India’s gold consumption is expected to rise 33% in 2005 to 850 tons due to higher income, good harvests and we will add, a booming stock market. Much of those profits are going into gold.
   
   Consumption, excluding recycled gold, rose 57% to 508 tons in the first half of the year, up from 322 tons in the first half of 2004.
   
   India’s economy should grow 7% in this fiscal year to 3/31/06, just above last year’s 6.9%. Gold buying pressure in India is extremely strong. Gold was up 89% in India and 77% globally.
   
   The total volume of gold derivatives and gold futures, options and certificates far exceed the gold reserves of central banks. Lease rates lead us to believe the gold suppression cartel is under intense pressure and are close to being out of gold. The day of deliverance is at hand. The gold shorts are going to get their heads handed to them.
   
   The way gold is acting and the fact that the gold suppression cartel members believe $500.00 is eminent tells us gold could easily blow right through $512.00 to $550.00. That would certainly bring the pros into the market. If we are right, $850.00 an ounce is achievable by March.
   
   We must add the fundamentals and the silver charts are probably the best ever. Expect an explosion. Even the Fed is talking higher inflation and that is powerful fuel for a booming silver price.
   
   Gold is no longer tied to the dollar. It has now broken out in almost every currency. Gold is now the currency of choice. This has badly damaged the efforts of the gold suppression cartel and it spells the end of their manipulation. That is why gold is running up whether the dollar is rising or falling. Every attempt over the past few weeks to knock gold down has been unequally unsuccessful. Wall Street and the brokerage houses on the short side of gold and gold shares are about to lose lots of money. They’ll also lose lots of money in the market and bonds as well. Many large brokerage houses will go bankrupt in the next five years - just deserts for a band of criminals. The great fraud is about to come ingloriously to an end.
   
   The oil/gold ratio remains near an historic low with an ounce buying just 7.7 barrels of oil.
   When we began getting into the gold market in the early sixties there were three strong gold-silver newsletters starting out; Harry Schultz, Jim Dines and the now deceased Vern Myers. This is what the grand master Harry Schultz had to say about the gold market the other day. “The gold market is now in a different kind of phase, not just a leg up. It’s serious now. This is where the insiders gradually load up.” This is exactly as we told you it would be.
   
   The IMF used to have three tons of gold. They have been leasing gold, which they will never see again. The only question is, do they have any more to lease?
   
   The gold breakout in currencies is causing a paradigm shift in investor thinking regarding currencies. They are shifting to gold and in time, as gold appreciates, that shift will overwhelm the rkets.
   
   The Washington Agreement to limit gold sales to 500 tons is a farce. This past fiscal year ended 9/3/05, they sold at least 552 tons and the figure may actually be 574.6 tons. So much for transparency and veracity.
   
   Comex warehouse gold holding are six million ounces of gold yet, commercials have sold 20 million ounces. If buyers were to take delivery the commercials would have to short cover and that would drive gold prices much higher. All of you so-called market timers, who are expecting a correction in gold, had best be long. It is only a matter of time before commercials have to cover.
   
   Morgan Stanley says Asian central banks should hold more gold, especially Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan.
   Many professionals and a handful of others now believe us that the gold market is rigged by the central banks. They wait for a rally and after the suppression cartel pounds gold back down they are sitting waiting to buy at lower prices. Gold has taken on a life of its own and there is no way to stop its climb. On Monday, the euro gold fix was 393.81, which is another technical and fundamental breakout. Investors are buying gold as the debt free alternative currency. The key to the gold market is cash buying and Europeans, Americans and Canadians are not in the market as yet.
   
   The Silver Users Association says it opposes the creation of an exchange-traded fund (ETF), due to concerns such as investment product could make silver too expensive or illiquid in the world market. Of course, the real reason is because they and their elitist friends would lose control in the suppression of silver prices. The silver is not available. Almost all the inventory is gone.
   
   It looks like at the end of the third quarter Barrick’s hedge book was a negative $2.32 billion. That is up from a minus $190 billion at the end of the second quarter. By the end of the year the hedge book could be offside $3 billion.
   
8. [verwijderd] 12 november 2005 14:50

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   Howdy,
   
   Stilwater heb diepe gronden:
   
   Ik trade al lang in PAL (North American Palladium) en SWC (Stillwater Mining Co.)
   
   Palladium werd weer HOT de laatste paar dagen.
   
   Houdoe,
   
   >--:-)-->
9. [verwijderd] 13 november 2005 13:20

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   From Hugo to the Café members and GATA supporters around the world:
   
   Hello Bill - Some news for you.
   
   Mexican Congressmen are going to Sao Paolo, Brazil, for a meeting of the "Latin American Parliament" on Nov. 24 and following days.
   
   Among the Congressmen included in the delegation is a group from the three main political parties in Mexico (who are totally at odds on other matters!) who will make a presentation divided into three parts, regarding silver as a currency which can help unite the economies and politics of the region.
   
   One party member will present the history of silver, why it went out of circulation.
   
   A member of another party will present the way that silver can be reintroduced into circulation permanently - a coin with no nominal face value, whose value will be quoted in a similar fashion (similar seigniorage) by participating Central Banks in each country's local currency, and with the provision that no quote can be reduced, once given out.
   
   Yet another member of another party will present the social, economic and political advantages of placing such a coin into circulation.
   
   After the dismal failure by the US at the recent get-together in Buenos Aires, this new and imaginative proposal may well receive close attention and - who knows? - may spark interest in the Mexican plan, for reintroduction of silver into circulation, in other countries of Latin America, all of which desperately need new and inspiring ideas besides the outworn dollar-dependency song.
   
   So, let's hope these courageous Congressmen are successful in transmitting the message of real money as a "liquid financial 'cushion'" for savers (see Howard Kurlitz's article "Greenspan's Legacy of Debt" at www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHil...
   
   A financial cushion that has a built-in capacity to respond to inflation AND the possibility of rising in value as silver goes up.
   
   So, Mexico's message goes international.
   Hugo
   
   For those who would like to know the details of Hugo’s plan, his presentation at Gold Rush 21 may be read in full at The Matisse Table at this link:
   
   8/15 Hugo Salinas Price's presentation at Gold Rush 21: "The silver coin in Mexico"
   
   My favorite picture of Gold Rush 21 was this one of Hugo presenting his case on the Libertad and how close it is to becoming a reality:
   
   Gold Rush 21 Photos
   
   www.lemetropolecafe.com/matisse_table...
   
   Congrats to Hugo for bringing his dream this far and now to South America.
   
   From GATA’s standpoint this is a significant development because once the DVD is completed, people all over the world will be able to watch Hugo’s presentation on the internet. The fact that he has taken his concept to this level with the support of the three major parties in Mexico ought to attract even more attention to our DVD.
   
10. [verwijderd] 15 november 2005 08:30

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    Why silver could be the new gold
    A new scheme will make it easier to buy 'the white metal', which should boost its value — if America gives the green light. By Kathryn Cooper
    business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9556-1869207,00.html
    
    SILVER is often dismissed as a “poor man’s gold”, but it has risen twice as much as the yellow metal this year and a growing groundswell of investors reckon that this is only the start of a long-term upturn.
    
    The price of silver has leapt 14% to $7.74 an ounce this year, while gold, which has been getting all the attention, is up only 7% at $467 an ounce.
    
    Both precious metals have benefited from their reputation as a safe haven when global inflation and interest rates are picking up, but silver is used far more widely than gold, in industries such as electronics, where it is a key component in circuit boards, and cars, where it is used in heated windscreens, and supply is failing to meet demand.
    
    The white metal may also get a boost from a new silver fund. Barclays Global Investors, part of the high-street bank, has applied to American regulators for permission to launch an exchange-traded fund investing in silver. ETFs are like trackers, in that they follow a market index or the price of an underlying asset. The proposed ETF would initially issue shares backed by 1.5m ounces of silver held in bank vaults, although it would buy more if demand were strong. It cannot be listed in Britain for regulatory reasons, but you could buy it in the US through a broker.
    
    However, the application has run into opposition from powerful quarters. The Silver Users Association, whose members include Tiffany, the jeweller, and Kodak, the photographic giant, fears the ETF will aggravate the shortage of silver and push up prices — bad for industry, but good for silver investors.
    
    When the World Gold Council launched an ETF, the Street Tracks Gold Trust, in New York this time last year, it helped to push prices to their highest for more than 16 years and generated sales equivalent to almost 90 tonnes of gold in its first four trading sessions.
    
    Investors hope the same thing will happen with silver, and they have been buying the metal in anticipation. Analysts say this may have added an extra 50 cents per ounce to the price this year, potentially making it vulnerable to a pull-back if the industry association succeeds in blocking the ETF.
    
    However, silver bulls are convinced there are powerful reasons to buy the metal, even if the new fund does not get the go-ahead. Theodore Butler, an independent precious-metals analyst, said in a recent report: “This is a win-win situation for silver investors. If the ETF goes ahead, the impact on the price will be great. But if it never sees the light of day, it will still prove just how critical the balance between supply and demand has become. If the US government says no to the ETF, it will be for one reason only — there is not enough real silver in the world to fund it.”
    
    The demand for silver from industry and for jewellery and coins has exceeded the supply from mining and recycled scrap since 1990, according to CPM Group, a metals consultancy. Last year, the deficit was an estimated 44.5m ounces.
    
    This gap has to be met from inventories — the stocks of silver held by central banks and investors. However, these stocks have declined from an estimated 2.2 billion ounces in 1990 to about 300m today, according to CPM.
    
    In its 2005 silver report, CPM said: “The amount of silver that remains in inventories is far less than at any time in the past half-century, and in fact since the early 20th century. For the market to rebalance, prices will have to rise enough to stimulate increased supplies from mines or discourage demand.”
    
    The price of silver has already moved. It was stuck in a range of $4 to $5.50 between 1993 and 2003, but has moved up to between $6 and $8.25 since then. Nevertheless, the price is still below its peak of $50 in 1980 — the year when gold touched $800.
    
    CPM said: “The move we have seen is not a sharp spike compared with the increases witnessed in the 1980s, which indicates that the silver price may have further potential.”
    
    And bulls argue that silver still looks cheap compared with gold. You need about 60 ounces to buy an ounce of gold. This is in line with the average of the past 15 years, but in the 500 years until the mid-19th century you needed only 15 to 20 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold because the price was relatively much higher.
    
    Optimists say all the ingredients are in place for a long-term bull market. Butler said: “We are only in the very early stages of a long-term bull cycle for silver. The pace of silver consumption is accelerating, given the growth in the world population and economy. Every new washing machine in India and TV in China guarantees increased silver consumption. But we don’t have enough in inventory to subsidise the shortfall in production. We would be lucky if we have 1 billion ounces left above ground, compared with 5 billion of gold. That is why silver is more rare than gold.”
    
    However, other analysts are not convinced. They say silver has risen purely because gold is back in favour. Yingxi Yu, a silver analyst at Barclays Capital, the investment bank, said: “Silver has been largely tracking the movements in gold, with a lack of impetus of its own.
    
    “The fundamental outlook for silver remains challenging because of declining demand from the photographic industry and an increase in output as a by-product from other mines.”
    
    The photographic industry accounts for 18% of global demand for silver, according to GFMS, a consultancy, but it is declining by about 10% to 15% a year. The metal is used to produce the film for traditional cameras, which are being replaced by digital models. While silver is still used in digital cameras’ circuit boards, the volumes involved are much lower.
    
    Demand from other industries has so far offset the decline in photographic uses, but analysts fear silver could suffer in the longer term as economic growth slows and mines increase production.
    
    The outlook for silver is therefore closely allied to the gold price. If the yellow metal goes above $500, as many analysts expect, silver’s upturn could have legs. But if the gold price slips back, silver could suffer.
    
    And the downturn could be even sharper than that of gold because silver is more volatile than its more valuable cousin. Investors taking a punt on silver should therefore take care.
    
    
    
11. [verwijderd] 16 november 2005 09:53

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    Some supply-and-demand dispatches today....
    
    Resource Investor's Tim Wood reports from
    the LBMA conference in Johannesburg that
    Russia's central bank is considering
    doubling the proportion of gold in its
    foreign exchange reserves:
    
    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
    
    MineWeb's Gareth Tredway reports from the
    LBMA conference that a former economist for
    the International Monetary Fund forecasts
    "tremendous" prospects for precious metals:
    
    www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/...
    
    DRD Gold CEO Mark Wellesley-Wood says in
    the company's latest investor newsletter
    that gold production is sure to decline
    sharply over the last four years and prompt
    a scramble for discovery:
    
    www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/disp...
    Nav=ns&lvl2=econ&ArticleID=1518-25_1834813
    
    And Gold Fields Mineral Service predicts
    once again that central banks are about to
    discover a method of turning not just lead
    but also sea water into gold:
    
    business.iafrica.com/news/561125.htm
    
12. [verwijderd] 16 november 2005 23:52

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    LATEST FUTURES NEWS
    NY precious metals end sharply higher as funds buy
    Wednesday, November 16, 2005 8:12:21 PM
    www.reuters.com
    
    NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Precious metals futures all closed
    sharply higher in New York on Wednesday, with silver scaling an 11-month
    peak and platinum spiking to another in a series of near-26-year highs, on a
    flurry of fund buying.
    
    Dealers said the metals climbed on expectations that market
    leader gold was primed to soon test the round number of $500 an ounce, and
    that platinum could spike to $1,000, due to growing investor interest in the
    sector.
    
    "We're seeing a real solid move into the commodity markets,"
    said Scott Meyers, an analyst at Pioneer Futures in New York. "I think that
    gold has completely diverged from the euro relationship and what you're
    seeing right now is a market that just has tremendous strength."
    
    At the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, December
    gold <GCZ5> rose to a five-week high at $479 an ounce, its highest level
    since Oct. 12, when prices rallied to an 18-year high of $483.10.
    
    The contract settled $10.10 higher, or up 2.15 percent, at
    $479.10, after rising off a morning low of $468.30.
    
    Dealers said gold has diverged from its recent tight inverse
    relationship to the dollar as funds have steadily pushed precious metals and
    copper higher this year, and a currently weaker euro should not hold it back
    from new highs.
    
    "You did cut through some pretty key chart points in gold and
    silver, and that was able to power the market up," said a dealer at a
    commodity trading house in Chicago.
    
    "You are also starting to see some reallocation of resources by
    funds on a value-based pattern," he said. "For example, copper was very
    strong relative to the gold market recently and today you are starting to
    see some profit taking there and shifting into gold now."
    
    Technically, gold is poised to hit $500 by year-end, buoyed also
    by fears about inflation and heightened concerns about geopolitical
    uncertainty, analysts and traders have said.
    
    "Recently, funds who were selling oil also were selling the
    metals, but then everything seemed to change. Investors see that there are
    whiffs of inflation out there," said George Gero, a senior vice president at
    Legg Mason Wood Walker.
    
    Market players in gold were awaiting a World Gold Council report
    on third-quarter demand, due on Thursday at 7 a.m. EST.
    
    Bullion's high at $478.60 was its highest level since it struck
    a near-18-year high of $480.25 last month.
    
    Spot gold <XAU=> at last check was at $478.25/9.00 an ounce,
    against Tuesday's New York close at $467.90/8.60. Bullion dealers in London
    set the afternoon spot reference price at $475.75.
    
    Silver ran higher after fund and speculator buying overnight in
    Japan and Europe in gold, platinum and palladium spilled over to trading at
    the New York open, dealers said.
    
    December delivery silver <SIZ5> finished at $8.002 an ounce, up
    21.5 cents. That was just shy of the earlier $8.025 level -- the highest
    mark for a benchmark futures contract since December 2004. The session low
    was $7.765.
    
    Spot silver <XAG=> broke to an 11-month high at $8.01 an ounce
    and last fetched $8.01/03. That compared with $7.74/76 late Tuesday. It
    fixed at $7.785.
    
    On the board at NYMEX, January platinum <PLF6> stormed as high
    as $994 an ounce, a life-of-contract high and the strongest level since
    March 1980, before settling at $989.70, up $14.80 on the day.
    
    Traders saw as bullish for the white metal a report from refiner
    Johnson Matthey <JMAT.L> on Tuesday saying the global market should remain
    in deficit in 2005, with prices trading from $890 to $1,030 over the next
    six months.
    
    Demand for platinum, which is used mainly in jewelry and to
    clean car exhaust emissions, was forecast to rise by 2 percent to 6.71
    million ounces in 2005, while supplies were also seen rising by 2 percent to
    6.59 million ounces.
    
    Spot platinum <XPT=> traded at $985/989 an ounce, against
    $967/972 late in New York on Tuesday.
    
    December palladium futures <PAZ5> climbed $9.80 to end at
    $261.50 an ounce, just off from an earlier 18-month high at $261.80. The low
    was $251.70.
    
    Spot palladium <XPD=> hit $255/258 an ounce, against its prior
    close at $244/248.
    
13. [verwijderd] 17 november 2005 17:26

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    Smart ones make a killing in gold (NewIndiaPress 11/17)
    Gold is no longer a woman's preserve, and it has become an avenue for the smart investor seeking sizeable return. Now people have accepted gold as a good form of investment. A new class has emerged from within the middle class, who buy gold as small coins and bars purely as an investment proposition.
14. [verwijderd] 18 november 2005 09:17

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    London Outshines New York in Gold Rally
    
    By Arindam Saha Economic Times / The Times of India
    Gurgaon, India Friday, November 18, 2005
    
    economictimes.indiatimes.com/articles...
    
    MUMBAI -- A buying spree in the London gold spot market has stunned the New York futures market. It has unfolded a rare event in the history of gold trading: backwardation -- where the spot price (in
    London) has exceeded the futures price (in New York). The trading in these global bourses has also impacted the local futures price.
    
    The trend, which could well be a temporary phenomenon, reflects a mounting uncertainty in bullion supply and a bullish market. The gold price -- internationally as well as locally -- is again inching toward a new peak.
    
    Backwardation is even more pronounced in the local market. In the overseas markets, the spot price crossed futures for a brief spell and then maintained a wafer-thin difference for the rest of the day. (The New York exchange is open for 23 hours).
    
    The local market witnessed a higher degree of backwardation, since the spot price immediately factors in the current rupee-dollar exchange rate. The spot price further hardened with the dollar
    gaining against the rupee.
    
    As always the Indian futures market shadowed the international prices. The gold futures contract traded at the local bourse MCX and several spot markets across the country demonstrated a similar
    trend. The MCX near month gold contract was trading at Rs 7086 per 10 gm, while spot gold at Mumbai's Zaveri Bazaar was offered at Rs 7175 per 10 gm on Thursday.
    
    Continuing its uptrend that started a fortnight ago, global traders took the yellow metal to a new peak in the London market. Gold was seen trading at $482.5 a troy ounce in London spot, while the New
    York Comex near-month futures was trading at $481.7 around the same time.
    
    Such a situation is always short-lived as it triggers arbitrage activities that generates quick profits for traders.
    
    Thursday's backwardation situation opened an ideal arbitrage opportunity for the spot market trader who is also active in the futures market. Many such traders with physical possession are selling the gold in the spot market and are putting the sales
    proceeds in the bank or other quick investment form to earn interest.
    
    At the same time they are locking in a trade in the futures exchange as a buyer at a lower price than the spot to take delivery of physical gold at a later date. At the maturity of the futures contract they will take back the gold with the money kept in the bank.
    
    Though traders in the spot market continue to be bullish, traders on the futures exchanges are betting on a price drop within a few months. All distant futures contract (until October 2006) at Nymex are showing a price tag of less than $500 until midday.
    
    "In the spot market gold can soon touch the $500 mark thanks to major fund interests in the US market and political disturbance in France," said B.N. Vaidya, a local bullion analyst.
    
    "Forget supply constraint and inflation fears. Bullion traders today are psychologically tuned to a price level of not less than $500," said a spot trader from the Ahmedabad bullion market.
15. [verwijderd] 18 november 2005 10:26

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    A lovely quote taken from the bottom of this article by Bill Murphy.
    HTG
    
    "The price of gold is headed to well beyond $2,000 per ounce. GATA knows why.
    Now you do too."
    
    
    
    November 17, 2005
    
    The key to understanding the manipulation of the gold market, this enormous scandal and fraud, is that it can be compared to a murder trial. In the United States a murderer can be put to death if he is found guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Many times murder defendants are convicted based solely on "circumstantial" evidence because a reasonable person could reach no conclusion other than guilty.
    
    For seven years GATA has discovered one piece of evidence after another supporting our long-held contention that the gold market is managed by certain central banks and their agents, the bullion banks. It is a price-fixing case involving some very powerful people and institutions … in fact it is a Gold Cartel. The U.S. attorney handling the Samsung conspiracy conviction said in an interview this fall that the United States had experienced an "epidemic" of price-fixing cases in the late 1990s. All GATA has done is uncovered one of them, the grandest of all.
    
    For one to appreciate how this can go on and on and not be brought to the attention of the public, one need only to reflect on Enron and Refco. Before its initial public offering of stock, Refco was audited by the most highly regarded firms on Wall Street and nothing wrong was discovered. Yet look at what was really transpiring behind the scenes. Now the company is bankrupt and under criminal investigation.
    
    That said, GATA does have its "smoking gun." It has to do with derivatives and central bank gold. The mainstream gold world says the central banks have nearly 32,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults (minus a small amount that has been sold in recent years or is on loan to gold producers for their hedging operations). GATA says the central banks have less than half of that -- the difference being what was clandestinely fed into the market to suppress the gold price over the last 10 years. The work of three respected GATA consultants -- Reg Howe, Frank Veneroso, and James Turk -- each using different methodologies, supports GATA's contention of vastly diminished central bank gold supply.
    
    Veneroso made a presentation at GATA's African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa, on May 10, 2001, laying out why the central bank gold loans are far higher than generally believed. This presentation, "Facts, Evidence and Logical Inference ... A Presentation On Gold Supply/Demand, Gold Derivatives and Gold Loans," may be reviewed at:
    
    www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID...
    
    Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund has instructed central banks to lie about their gold reserves -- to count gold loans and swaps as gold in their vaults. So as not to be so audacious without backup to validate our more than dramatic claim, let me explain. Canadian GATA supporter Andrew Hepburn posed the following question to the IMF in October 2001:
    
    Why does the IMF insist that members record swapped gold as an asset when a legal change in ownership has occurred?
    
    The IMF responded:
    
    "This is not correct: the IMF in fact recommends that swapped gold be excluded from reserve assets. (See Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, Operational Guidelines, para. 72"
    
    (For more on this, see groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/904. The IMF link mentioned above is no longer operating. It was in 2001 as noted in the GATA dispatch.)
    
    Yet a footnote on the Internet site of the central bank of the Philippines contradicts the IMF's claim and reveals it to be bogus:
    
    "Beginning January 2000, in compliance with the requirements of the IMF's reserves and foreign currency liquidity template under the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), gold swaps undertaken by the BSP with non-central banks shall be treated as collateralized loans. Thus, gold under the swap arrangement remains to be part of reserves and a liability is deemed incurred corresponding to the proceeds of the swap."
    
    (See www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sefi/fx-int...
    
    The European Central Bank and other central banks corroborated exactly what the central bank of the Philippines declares about counting gold loans the same as gold in the vault.
    
    The "smoking gun" part of this has to do with the gold derivatives on the books of the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland. The gold establishment says the gold derivatives on those books have been associated with gold producer hedges. Yet in the last four years gold producers have reduced their hedges by more than 2,000 tonnes of gold, or more than 50 percent of their hedging at its peak. Consider this excerpt from a Reuters report from November 8, 2005:
    
    "LONDON -- .... The Hedge Book report produced by Haliburton Mineral Services and industry consultants Virtual Metals said the so-called hedge impact of the global book fell by 1.0 million ounces to 52.8 million ounces. ... The global hedge impact in the July-September quarter was just more than half its level in the same quarter of 2001 when it peaked at 102.8 million ounces."
    
    Meanwhile, gold derivatives have gone up during that period of time, not down. While these are complicated and technical, Howe updated GATA's evaluation of the BIS gold derivatives in a report he posted at GoldenSextant.com in June, "Gold Derivatives: Skewing the World":
    
    "On May 20, 2005, the Bank for International Settlements released its regular semi-annual report on the over-the-counter derivatives of major banks and dealers in the G-10 countries for the period ending December 31, 2004. The total notional value of all gold derivatives rose from $318 billion at mid-year 2004 to $369 billion at year-end. As subsequently detailed in table 22A of the June issue of the BIS Quarterly Review, released June 13, 2005, forwards and swaps increased slightly from $129 to $132 billion while options rose dramatically from $189 to $237 billion."
    
    The only explanation for the dichotomy between the reduced hedges and the increased gold derivatives on the books of the BIS is undisclosed lending of gold and writing of central bank call options associated with the price suppression scheme.
    
    There is one other anecdotal point to make proving how right GATA has been all along and what it means for gold investors in the years to come. For years GATA has claimed that the key to the eventual surge in the price of gold was the rising physical demand for gold amid the diminishing supply of central bank gold used to suppress the price. The gold establishment has associated the rise in the price of gold over the years with the weakening of the U.S. dollar. GATA has claimed otherwise.
    
    We said the Gold Cartel was using the action of the dollar for price-rigging purposes. GATA has said over and over that the price of gold could rise hundreds of dollars per ounce and the dollar do nothing relative to other currencies. We said it would happen when the gold cartel began to lose control of its price manipulation scheme.
    
    Well. ...
    
    The euro came into existence on January 1, 1999, at $1.17. The price of gold that day was $284. As this is written in mid November 2005, the euro approached $1.17 again while gold has rocketed $194 per ounce since the beginning of 1999.
    
    Here's more that helps to prove GATA's case about the gold market. A
16. [verwijderd] 18 november 2005 10:28

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    The euro came into existence on January 1, 1999, at $1.17. The price
    At the beginning of 2005 gold was $420 and the euro was $1.30. In mid November the euro was trading at $1.17. But the price of gold was $478. The argument that gold is tied to the dollar has gone the way of the Dodo bird. Of course, should the dollar crash, which it should, this can only help the gold price.
    
    The price of gold is headed to well beyond $2,000 per ounce. GATA knows why.
    Now you do too.
    
    
    
17. [verwijderd] 20 november 2005 16:57

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    Four-Digit Gold? Interview with John Hathaway Portfolio Manager, Tocqueville Gold Fund
    By Sandra Ward Barron's November 19, 2005
    
    If it's gold you're after, John Hathaway, who runs about $550 million in the Tocqueville Gold Fund and another $400 million in separate client accounts, is the man for you. Year in and year out, Hathaway has delivered glittering returns, outperforming the benchmark Philadelphia Exchange Gold and Silver Index at every step. This year his fund (TGLDX) is up 15.3 percent, compared with a gain of 14.84 percent in the index, even though the performance of gold stocks has lagged behind the appreciation of the metal.
    
    Focusing on what he considers to be undervalued gems with good growth potential has paid handsome dividends for Hathaway and his investors. If, as he believes, the price of the precious metal is heading toward four-digit territory, expect that streak to continue.
    
    Barron's: Gold seems to be trying to make another run here. What's your outlook for the price?
    
    Hathaway: In the very near term, I have no idea. But it is still a bull-market trend, and there are a lot of reasons for that, and we will see higher prices. People shouldn't be surprised to see gold trade in the four digits.
    
    Barron's: What's behind the move higher?
    
    Hathaway: There is so much paper around, there are so many financial assets, and it only takes a small diversion from financial assets into gold to push the price higher.
    
    Barron's: But what would lead to that diversion?
    
    Hathaway: People are buying tangible assets, and gold is tangible and probably one of the most liquid and, in some ways, the least risky of all the tangible assets.
    
    Barron's: There doesn't seem to be a lot of it around.
    
    Hathaway: There is not a lot of it around. If you took one-tenth of 1 percent of global financial assets and stuck them in gold, you would wind up with a couple of years of mine supply. It is a trade you can't do. But it still gets back to the question as to why people would get more interested in gold, and it's not all based on bearishness. India is getting more prosperous, and Indians like gold. China is getting more prosperous, and the Chinese like gold. More disposable income in Asia definitely helps gold.
    
    Yet there are bearish factors behind the bull case for gold.
    
    There is an ongoing currency debasing. Look at all the people who were bearish on the dollar a couple of years ago -- they've been been slammed because they put their money into the euro. They should have put it in gold. Warren Buffett just took a loss on part of his position in the euro. He was famous for being bearish on the dollar. How did he activate that? He took a €22 billion position because the euro was liquid and gold isn't.
    
    Barron's: Are you surprised at the behavior of the euro?
    
    Hathaway: Not really. It is a piece of garbage, really. There is no national treasury that stands behind it, but a committee of bureaucrats. Then there's the politics and social issues in Europe. There's a big difference in the growth rate between the U.S. and Europe, and there's a big differential in interest rates between the U.S. and Europe. Gold is going to rise against the dollar and the euro and the yen, which it has been doing for quite a while, but it has been doing it quietly, so most people aren't even aware of it.
    
    There are still a lot of skeptics on gold. It's been five years since it's been in a bull market. Before that it had been in a bear market for about 20.
    
    These days, the generations are much shorter. Residual skepticism is all over the place, and it is terrific because it gives the bull case longevity. If everybody were on board the way they are with energy, I would have to think of a new investment theme to work on.
    
    Barron's: You have written about gold benefiting from a bubble in the U.S. Treasuries market.
    
    Hathaway: The bubble is a reflection of the lack of investment alternatives. It is also a reflection of the perceptions of risk and the notion that Treasuries are a safe haven so they should be priced in a different way. There is so much money sloshing around the system, to the extent it is risk-averse it goes into Treasuries. On the other hand, you have negative real rates throughout the yield curve. Latest 12-month inflation is running about 4.7 percent. An investor has to go out almost 30 years on the yield curve just to get even. There is so much paper around and returns on assets are so hard to come by that it is driving money in this direction, and that's created the bubble. But these conditions are very favorable for gold.
    
    Barron's: So what will focus people's attention on gold?
    
    Hathaway: Hitting $500. That will fix attention. This has been a stealth bull market. Only years after a bottom has been made do people realize it.
    
    Barron's: Hasn't there been a disconnect between the price of gold and gold shares?
    
    Hathaway: Day by day, tick by tick, they don't do the same thing. But if you go back to 1999, which was the bottom of the bear market in gold, gold has gone from $250 an ounce to nearly double that. And the XAU, a benchmark for gold shares that most people use, has gone from the low 40s to around 115. For the last year or so, the shares have underperformed the metal to some extent, but over a period of time and on a historical basis, the shares give you more octane then the metal itself.
    
    Barron's: Why are the shares underperforming?
    
    Hathaway: Costs are up so much, particularly for open-pit mines, which use a lot of energy pushing dirt around and hauling it. The cost of building a new mine is up a good 30% over what it was five years ago. So the economics of the industry, even though the price of the commodity is up quite a bit, are essentially just as crappy as they were when gold was at its lows.
    
    Barron's: Will consolidation in the industry help that?
    
    Hathaway: Not really. They might help a particular company's business, but it is not going to change the economics. What would change the economics would be a $200-$300 price increase so that gold would then outperform commodities. Gold has underperformed other commodities by about 50 percent for quite a few years. That tells you oil, copper, and a lot of these inputs that gold producers need to get gold out of the ground have outpaced the price of gold. That is a fairly straightforward explanation of why margins have been poor. But there is another factor, and that is it is so easy for a gold company to get money. They have abused their ability to access what has been very low-cost capital by over-issuing shares. The stocks might be 20 percent higher if so many didn't declare open season on investors by issuing so much new stock.
    
    Barron's: Do you take an activist role in that sense?
    
    Hathaway: I'm very vocal about how investor-unfriendly the success of share issuance is. I'm particularly upset with the Canadian investment banks that do these deals.
    
    Barron's: What's their defense?
    
    Hathaway: The other side of it is that small companies, particularly the ones that are true exploration companies, are analogous to biotech stocks. They have properties that have potential value, but it takes a lot of money for drilling and exploration and metallurgical testing and feasibility before you actually generate revenues. Basically, they have to pass the hat all the time. Issuing shares is a quick and dirty way to get money, and for smaller companies, it's OK. But I obj
18. [verwijderd] 20 november 2005 16:59

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    But I object to any company that has a listing here in the U.S. on the New York Exchange or American Stock Exchange doing "bought" deals. [In such a deal, a new-share issue is bought entirely by one underwriter to resell to investors.]
    
    Barron's: Is there any evidence that raising money has boosted production?
    
    Hathaway: No. We just had a company in yesterday that is a particularly good example of this practice, and if you look at benchmarks like resources per share or ounces of production per share, they have been flat at this company for the last four years. So getting back to your question on why the shares have been sluggish in an environment in which the gold price is going up, it's because costs are way up and these companies issue stock without discipline.
    
    Barron's: Haven't some gold stocks been hurt by strength in local currencies?
    
    Hathaway: Certainly the South Africans were hurt because the rand went from something like 13 to the dollar to six to the dollar over a period of a year and a half or two years. That's like cutting the gold price in half. Even though the dollar price of gold has gone up, the rand price of gold is just now getting back to where it was a few years ago. To a lesser extent, strength in the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar until recently squeezed margins for operations in those countries. But you get around that problem if gold is rising in all those currencies, which it is doing. But we have reached a point where gold isn't really linked to foreign-exchange rates because a lot of people are concerned about paper currencies in general.
    
    Barron's: Yet central banks have been selling gold.
    
    Hathaway: Central bank selling fills the gap between supply and demand. They have been selling at steady pace. What they have is an arrangement so their selling is orderly and doesn't spook the market. Under that arrangement, there is a quota system of 500 metric tons a year for five years. The selling is transparent, the market knows it is there, and if the program wasn't in place, gold could easily be $200 or $300 higher. We are in the second year of that five-year agreement, and it is hard to imagine where all that gold is going to come from.
    
    Barron's: Who's buying?
    
    Hathaway: They sell it into the market. We keep some of our gold in Switzerland, and I went to the facility where we keep it and basically it was a large refining company. They were melting down bars from the Swiss central bank, and at the other end of the production line there were semi-finished gold watch cases and jewelry for China, the Persian Gulf and India. That's where it is going. Central bankers are selling their best asset into the markets and it is going into non-monetary forms, and they will never get it back. They are just bureaucrats and not even held accountable for what they do on a financial basis. It has been such a bad trade for the last five years, you would think that at some point they would begin to say maybe we should hang on to what we have. But again, their general agenda is not to have gold as a monetary asset or at least not talk about it if they have it, because what is still true is that a rising price of gold is not a favorable reflection on public finan
    
    Barron's: What's the impact of gold exchange-traded funds on the market?
    
    Hathaway: It is potentially huge. Right now there's about $3.5 billion in gold ETFs, which isn't bad considering the first one came out a little over a year ago. As we discussed, gold shares can be risky, yet gold is not necessarily an investment for those who are risk-seeking or risk-tolerant. Gold is essentially financial insurance. It is noncorrelated. It has hundreds of years of history of being noncorrelated with financial assets, which means that when financial assets are doing well gold doesn't do well. From 1980 to 2000, that was the case, but in the 1970s and 1930s, gold did very well. What the ETF does is open the door for people who should have exposure to gold. It makes it easy for a college endowment that would never typically open up a commodities account or open up an arrangement with a bullion dealer to own gold. The ETF paves the way for an entirely different class of investors to come into gold, not gun slingers looking for huge returns but people who just want to pr
    
    Barron's: What risks are working in gold's favor?
    
    Hathaway: There is a lot of financial risk in the system. The level of household debt, the housing bubble, the amount of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign central banks, the valuation of the stock market, the overvaluation of the bond market -- are all legitimate reasons to be concerned, not that I wish for worst-case outcomes. Secular credit expansions, which is what we had from 1982 through 2000, are often accompanied by an ever-decreasing perception of risk. We've been in a bear market since 2000 and people still don't realize it. Yet bear markets have a life of their own, and they really don't end until a certain psychology takes hold and people just hate financial assets.
    
    Barron's: Are gold stocks attractive at this point?
    
    Hathaway: One of the problems I have is that a lot of my positions are merging, so I'm forced to go down the food chain and look elsewhere for other things to own more of. Among the big producers, companies such as Newmont Mining [NEM], Gold Fields [GFI], Barrick [ABX] and, to some extent, Goldcorp [GG], aren't really growth vehicles. They can get a little bit bigger, perhaps, but if this Barrick merger with Placer Dome [PDG] goes through, for instance, the company will produce 10 million ounces of gold, and that's more than 10 percent of the market's annual global production. How much bigger can they really get? This is not a business that lends itself to size in the sense that one company could ultimately become 30 or 40 percent of the market.
    
    When you are mining that much gold, you have to replace it every year, and if these guys can just replace what they produce and replace it with high-quality ounces, and keep their costs in line, they are doing a great job. They become perpetual options on the gold price. Newmont, for instance, should just say it will be a seven-million-ounce producer for the next 15 years, and that would create a certain instrument in the market- place, which is a long-dated option on the gold price with a very low cost of capital.
    
    Barron's: What about the smaller companies?
    
    Hathaway: On the other end of the spectrum are the pure exploration companies that are out there trying to find new reserves, and as the gold price goes higher, the Newmonts and Barricks of the world will be compelled to buy the junior names. We manage our portfolios by owning the best of the large companies that have this long-option characteristic to their shares and the best of the small-cap names where value can be created without the price of gold rising necessarily.
    
    Barron's: What junior producers are attractive?
    
    I want to be careful to list companies that are reasonably liquid. We own something called Yamana Gold [AVY], which has a very nice growth profile. They are in Brazil and have a great land package. It's got 190 million shares trading at 4.
    
    Barron's: Are you expecting more upside?
    
    Hathaway: Yes. They have a fairly well-defined ramp-up of growth in the next five years, and that is something that we look for. We also like Ivanhoe Mines [IVN] a lot. There are 300 million shares outstanding, so it has a
19. [verwijderd] 20 november 2005 17:05

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    Barron's: Are you expecting more upside?
    
    Hathaway: Yes. They have a fairly well-defined ramp-up of growth in the next five years, and that is something that we look for. We also like Ivanhoe Mines [IVN] a lot. There are 300 million shares outstanding, so it has a $2.4 billion market cap. They have a huge discovery in Mongolia. Ivanhoe has a world-class copper discovery that just keeps getting bigger and has the potential to match Freeport McMoran's [FCX] big copper property in Indonesia in terms of its size. It is right near the Chinese markets, and it is economically very significant.
    
    Barron's: Any others?
    
    Hathaway: A third one is Eldorado [EGO]. It's an emerging producer with assets primarily in Turkey, which is geologically a very good place to be. It hasn't been picked over the way some areas have. It is not really a Third World country in that it has got First World infrastructure. It's got a billion-dollar market cap. Basically, what we look for is production ramping up so there is some growth component and prospective acreage and land packages allowing for more discoveries.
    
    Barron's: Thanks, John.
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    Silver: A Rare Opportunity by David Zurbuchen
    
    As little as one hundred years ago, a silver dime paid a worker for a full days worth of work. At today's fire-sale prices, you can buy those same 90% silver dimes for about 60 cents each. In fact, for under $6000 dollars one can purchase a 55lb bag filled with 10,000 silver dimes, the equivalent of 37 years of hard labor for over 2,000 years of history. In fact, in 1980 one of these bags was able to buy a comfortable home (Silver Ounces/Cost of Home)
    
    Obviously silver is no longer used monetarily or these dimes wouldn't be for sale at such a ridiculous price, but does this necessarily mean that the price of silver should stagnate, only to revert back to its historic norms in the event of a worldwide return to the use of silver and gold as money? Not at all. Silver, as well as gold, should appreciate in price dramatically, regardless of monetary interest, which is, nevertheless, being seriously considered by Mexico.
    
    Prior to the 20th century, silver's demand was almost entirely monetary. It was only until the industrial revolution and the advent of the modern electronic age that silver became an industrial metal. Though today absolutely no monetary demand exists, there has nevertheless been a documented 15 year supply-side deficit (CPM 2005 Silver Survey 2005). This demand has largely been met by government dis-hoarding, which has served to flood the market, partially explaining the long bear market in silver up until recently--with the exception of the dramatic price action of the late 1970's and early 80's.
    
    Speaking of 1980, (the year silver peaked at $150/oz in inflated terms) in that year all the governments of the world could claim a collective silver stockpile of about 2 billion ounces. Today, the total world government supply has shrunk to an estimated 200 million ounces (Silver Survey 2004 pg. 32), an amazing 98% decrease in a period of just 25 years. It appears that the U.S wins the boobie prize in silver liquidation, as it has managed to sell the largest stockpile in the history of the world (6 billion ounces in 1930) in just 72 years. That's correct, the US stockpile ran dry in 2002, after systematically selling its silver into the market for over seven decades. In fact, the US government now has to purchase about 10 million ounces of silver every year in order mint its popular 1 ounce Silver Eagles.
    
    Now don't imagine that the 6 billion ounces that were sold into into the market somehow found their way into another warehouse, with the potential to be sold back into the market again. Instead, it must be understood that the majority of that silver has long since been used up by industry, having been consumed in minute amounts that are not capable of being recovered. The silver truly is gone forever.
    
    In the 20th century alone, an estimated 36 billion ounces out of the 40 billion ounces of silver ever mined in the history of the world have been consumed . This means that only about 4 billion ounces of silver remain above ground, and most of it in the form of silverware and jewelry, forms of silver that will not come to market until silver reaches a minimum of $40-$50/oz. Since the total amount of silver bullion in in the world amounts to 671 M ounces (Silver Survey 2004 pg. 32), and the average supply/demand deficit runs around 100 million ounces per year, not much of cushion exists any longer and the potential for industrial stockpiling is probable.
    
    This leads to the most shocking conclusion of all, that Silver is indeed as rare or even more rare than gold. About 95% of the 4-5 billion ounces of gold ever mined (World Gold Council) is still in circulation, since about 95% of gold mined every year is used in jewelry, bullion, or bullion equivalent. Thus, the total gold inventory grows every year, where as silver is now consumed faster than it can be mined, because it is such an essential industrial component. Silver is then either as rare (4 billion ounces vs. 4 billion ounces) or more rare than gold. And remember, most silver is not accessible to the market at these prices. Yet somehow, Gold still trades at a premium of 60:1 to silver, even while historically, gold only traded at a premium of 15:1, and that was when silver was 10-15 times less rare that gold!
    
    The Silver Story, of which this article has only related in part, is representative of perhaps the single greatest investment opportunity in history, in terms of risk/reward ratios. Historically, silver was 20-200 times more valuable than today's quoted price of $8/oz., and that despite the fact that today it is 10 times more rare. Silver is used in more applications than any other commodity besides petroleum, and the USGS estimates that there are only about 30 more years of mine life left for the metal (World Reserves), the least of any other. At this point, there is little to suggest that the price of silver will ever trade below $7/oz again, and certainly not below $5/oz, while the potential gains to be made are incredible. Considering that both the DJI and SP 500 have offered little more than a 2% yearly return since 2000, not even able to keep up with the government's own inflation figures (DJI, SP 500), silver and gold are once again becoming worthy editions to investment portfolios.
    
    Armed with this information, you ought to know what to do. Open that phone book of yours and plan a trip to your local coin store. Purchase as much silver as you reasonably can and then sit back, relax, and watch the price rise ever higher. Now, if you happen to be like me, and enjoy the added volatility and leverage that silver mining stocks have to offer, I invite you to subscribe to my Free Silver Stock Newsletter found here: www.silverinscripture.com
    
    Oh, and did I fail to mention that silver in not traceable, therefore, not technically taxable. So don't delay, free yourself by disposing those worthless fiat notes today, exchanging them for intrinsic value, a true store of wealth, the most lustrous of metals, humble silver.
    
    November 25, 2005
    
    Visit www.silverinscripture.com