Forum: Edelmetalen » Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

[verwijderd] 17 december 2005 09:04

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GATA Chairman Murphy gets two nationwide audiences in Canada

(CP - The Kid survived my lunch with "Two Ton" Tony Wilson,
as you may surmise, as this is going out before 12 PM Toronto
time)

8:18p ET Friday, December 16, 2005

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Well, it finally happened. GATA Chairman Bill Murphy
made it onto television in Canada today, and it wasn't
just local cable access in Old Crow, Yukon Territory
-- it was eight minutes on "Business Morning with Jim
O'Connell" on Report on Business Television, the cable
channel based in Toronto that is seen across Canada
and, thanks to its wonderful Internet site, around the
world as well.

Murphy got to explain the basics of the gold price
suppression scheme of the central banks and their
client bullion banks, got invited back for a longer
interview on ROB-TV, and was even cited on ROB-TV's
afternoon program, "The Trading Desk with Pat
Bolland," on which Dennis Gartman of The Gartman
Letter and Frank McGhee of Integrated Brokerage
Services were interviewed.

This seems to have been Gold Day on ROB-TV, since
"The Trading Desk" went on to interview David
Chapman, investment adviser and technical
strategist for Union Securities and a director of
the Milennium Bullion Fund.

Murphy predicted that gold isn't just going to the
moon but to solar systems yet to be discovered.
McGhee and Chapman seemed to consider gold's old
high price of $850 to be a reasonable target. Even
Gartman, whose newsletter notes almost every day
that he can't stand being in the company of anyone
who sees the least virtue in gold, confessed that
he today purchased shares of Newmont Mining and
the gold exchange-traded fund, GLD, and figures
that $490 is likely to be the bottom of gold's
recent pullback.

At the end of the segment with Gartman and McGhee,
Bolland promised an interview with Sean Boyd, CEO
of Agnico-Eagle Mines, a longtime GATA supporter,
but if that interview was actually broadcast, it
unfortunately hasn't made it onto the ROB-TV
Internet archive at this hour.

Murphy mentioned on ROB-TV that GATA is producing
a DVD of our Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson
City, Yukon, last August. We expect that the DVD
will be ready for presentation at the Vancouver
Resource Investment Conference on January 22 and
23, where Murphy will be among the speakers:

www.cambridgeconferences.com/ch_van20...

We'll let everyone know when we've determined how
the DVD will be distributed.

You can find the ROB-TV Internet archive here:

www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv

Murphy's segment is at 11:40 a.m. The Gartman and
McGhee segment is at 3:15 p.m. And the Chapman
segment is at 3:33 p.m.

Now, Americans, don't you wish CNBC was like this?
Don't you wish you lived in Canada? (OK, at least
in July and August?)

Between Murphy's appearance on ROB-TV today, his
interview in today's Toronto Globe and Mail,
one of Canada's nationwide newspapers (dispatched
to you this morning), and gold's recovery above
$500, this seems to have been a pretty good day
for GATA and gold.

Murphy has not been in contact with GATA
headquarters since this afternoon, when he was
being collected by some of his friends from Bay
Street. In light of GATA's success today, he was
talking about going to Old Crow, but they told
him that Red Wine was a lot closer.

No matter, for as today's Globe and Mail story
reported, he always comes back -- the gold
cartel's worst nightmare.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[verwijderd] 19 december 2005 11:14

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Some Wonderful Common Sense Thinking About Gold

I first began reading Richard Russell back in December 1974. A friend showed me a copy of Russell's newsletter, Dow Theory Letters, which was calling for a bottom in the stock market. Given the depth and the severity of the bear market then prevailing, it was a bold statement, but the analysis was very compelling. And as we all know now, it was indeed great call, which probably explains why I remember it so vividly. But having read Dow Theory Letters now for over thirty years, I can attest that it was just one of many great calls made by Richard Russell over the years.

In a recent commentary sent to subscribers, Russell provides some wonderful insight about gold. His article reflects the keen perception and clear logic for which Russell has become so well known. It is his uncanny insight about markets and money that has made him the dean of newsletter writers.

I am therefore pleased to present the following article that was written by Richard Russell for his excellent newsletter, Dow Theory Letters.

----------------------------------------------------

My View on Gold
By Richard Russell
December 16, 2005

Back in the late-1940s I worked for a small textile firm. The company consisted of three partners, a bookkeeper, and yours truly. I was the designer. The three partners were each millionaires. They had made their fortunes during the Great Depression.

How'd they do it? Here's how. In those days families saved money by cutting and sewing their own clothes. Every family that could afford it had a Singer electric sewing machine.

What these three partners did was buy large quantities of cotton goods -- printed or woven. Then they would cut the materials into three and four yard pieces and package them attractively for retailers to sell to the ladies who sewed. Their cut-and-package concept turned out to be a very profitable business.

One day I asked the boss a question: "Mr. Weiss, how did you and your partners keep up your morale during the Depression?"

My boss smiled and replied: "One thing we didn't have to worry about was the price of our stock, which we held privately. One of the most demoralizing situations during the great bear markets of the '30s occurred as people watched the price of their stocks going down the drain. Believe me, in those days it was a great advantage not to have your stock listed. We knew we were doing well, and we never had to go through the frightening process where our stock might drop 80 or 90 percent, regardless of how well we were doing."

I never forgot that lesson, and I think it applies to those of us who are holding gold coins or gold shares today. I view gold items as long-term holdings. In fact, where the coins are concerned, I'll probably never sell them -- I'll probably leave them to my wife and kids. Therefore, I don't give a damn where the price of gold goes this month or this year or next year. I believe that ultimately gold is going considerably higher -- probably higher than even the gold bulls are thinking about today. Real bull markets often go higher than anyone thinks possible. But few people are able or willing to hang on to their items all the way through a bull market -- to somewhere near the final top. Why? Too many scares along the way.

So ironically, I almost think it would be better for the average holder of gold to be unaware of the daily price of his coins or gold shares. After all, do you call your real estate broker and ask him to give you an estimate of the price of your home every day? If you love your home, and you own it free and clear, chances are you don't give a damn what it's appraised for today or tomorrow or even next year. You're going to live in your home until your old age or until you're simply tired of it, and ready to move somewhere else -- probably to San Diego (everybody seems to be moving here).

So that's the lesson I learned from my old boss back in the late-1940s. If you have gold or a home, and it's a long-term holding and you own it free and clear, then stop driving yourself crazy about the price. Remember, in this business your emotions can be, and usually are, your single worst enemy.

The story above has quite a bit to do with my attitude towards gold. I don't buy gold futures. I don't buy gold on margin. I don't buy gold puts or calls. I don't trade gold. Therefore, when gold ran up to $540 on December 12th, I didn't get excited. And then when gold dropped to just above $500 yesterday I didn't get depressed. You see, on a daily or even weekly or monthly basis, I don't give a damn where gold goes. I don't care because I'm holding gold in terms of years, not months or weeks or days. And I own it outright. I don't own it the way half of America own their homes -- namely, on (mortgage) margin.

___________________________________________

You can subscribe to Richard Russell's newsletter at:
www.dowtheoryletters.com

___________________________________________

Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2005. All rights reserved.
Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com

[verwijderd] 22 december 2005 08:03

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Silver Stock Report www.silverstockreport.com
December 21, 2005 by Jason Hommel

It's always easy to make investment decisions in hindsight. It's much harder to have a vision for the future. I believe that paper money will be destroyed, and that gold and silver money will once again be restored as money worldwide. And I will share my vision with you, based on fundamentals, and presented, in the form of graphs of gold and silver prices in the future, as denominated in increasingly worthless dollars.

On Dec. 13, I sent out an email titled, "Should I wait for a correction to buy silver?"
www.silverstockreport.com/email/corre...

In sum, no, I wouldn't advise anyone to wait to buy. The reason is my very high expectation for silver and gold prices in the future. If silver is headed above $200/oz., it does not really matter too much if you buy silver at $8 or $9--it is far more important to actually have silver, and sell paper money, before the price of precious metals begins to really skyrocket.

Furthermore, silver can move up dramatically AT ANY TIME! Why? Because the remaining silver supplies, (less than 130 million oz. of refined silver) are valued at about $1 billion. And yet, there are relatively massive amounts of money ($22 trillion bond market, $10 trillion money in the banks [M3], $10 trillion worth of yen, $2.6 trillion dollars in Asia) that need the protection of a good investment, like silver.

See: Silver Users Fear Silver Shortage
biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051027/clth528.h...

AT ANY TIME, a billionaire, and there are over 600 of them, could buy some silver, and push the price up beyond $25/oz., and silver would still be cheap.

In my speeches at the mining shows, I have spoken of the fundamentals (like I just did). I usually then say that I don't like or do any technical analysis. Most chartists, in my opinion, over analyze the past dollar/gold price movements on the charts to try and predict a future dollar/gold price by the application of drawing lines or shapes or parabolas on charts to determine "the trend" or "the channel". But the chart contains absolutely zero information on the number one fundamental issue that will control the dollar price of silver and gold, namely, the charts do not tell you how many dollars they have created to excess! More and more dollar owners, one after another, will realize the fundamental truth, that paper is not real money, but only gold and silver are real money. The paper stuff may be money, but it is fraudulent money, and the fundamental, undeniable, and inescapable truth is that all frauds become exposed, and once exposed, they come to an abrupt end!

From 1971 until 1980, gold increased from $35/oz. to $850/oz. That was an increase of about 24 times, or, if you average out the gains from the bottom to the peak, an annual increase of 34%, for ten years straight. Thus, it took nearly 10 years to work off only some of the excess creation of paper money (inflation) that existed in the system since 1933, from the previous gold default, when gold was initially re-priced and fixed at $35/oz. from $20/oz. But the 1980 peak did not work out all the paper excesses--if it did, gold would have reached about $7000/oz., as you can see on the chart below. If all the paper excesses are worked off next time, we may expect the U.S. gold hoard to be equal to the money in U.S. banks, which would imply a price of about $38,314/oz. To get that number, simply divide the current $10 trillion in the banks (M3--soon to be discontinued) by the 261 million oz. of "official" gold, which may not even exist. Ahem!

I first discussed this concept in two articles here:
Why no talk of $32,567/oz ? - 02 January 2003
www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Why_...
People Talking About $32,567/oz - 10 January 2003
www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Peop...

So, instead of doing technical analysis to determine future gold prices, let's graph those fundamentals I just discussed. Here's the M3 / U.S. gold chart, showing what the gold price would have been if the money creation showed up instantly in the gold price, every time a dollar is created. Clearly, there is delay between the time of money creation, and when this fraud is revealed.

Official government sources:
Source of M3 www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Cu...
Source of U.S. Gold www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html

To get to about $40,000/oz. for gold, to catch up to all that past inflation, we would need a growth rate of about 30% per year, starting about now in 2006, for about 15 years. Of course, it could happen sooner. But let's look at that on a graph, shall we? The graph will illustrate how utterly useless it is to dwell excessively on the relatively minor price movements in gold and silver that we see today. Note the flat line at the bottom, showing a tiny blip around 1980. The historical ups and downs that we are seeing on today's price charts, under the scenario I expect in the future, will be reduced to nearly nothing.

Yes, that looks very dramatic. Is it possible? Of course, and the next chart shows that this expectation is actually far too conservative. Here's the same information, on a log chart, instead of a linear chart. On a log chart, each "line up" increase is a multiple. Note, a compound growth rate on a log chart appears as a straight line, and not a curve. Note, in the 1970's, the moves up were even steeper than this particular "prediction".

I realize that this "line" is not how markets behave. There will be ups and downs, violent ones, along the way. But I just don't have any ability to predict such short-term price trends. I only see the long trend. Nothing moves up in a straight line!

And yet, this prediction of $40,000/oz. gold is conservative for the following reasons.

1. As noted, my expected "line" is less steep than the rise of gold in the early 70's and late 70's. And the fundamentals actually point to a much steeper rise in the future than we experienced in the 70's.

2. It does not take into account any additional inflation (paper money creation) that will likely take place between 2005 and 2020. Yes, that's right, $40,000/oz. could happen if they stopped all money creation today, and for the next 15 years. But with Bernanke at the helm of the Fed, we will see massive continued inflation.

3. It does not take into account the vast amounts of money in the bond markets, (which is also money) and a competing investment with gold.

4. It does not take into account that many other nations have paper money, both U.S. dollars and their own currencies, that they will want to sell to buy gold, thus creating a worldwide bull market in gold prices.

5. It does not take into account human behavior, which is that people will move into gold more and more as the fraud of paper dollars and the entire dollar system continues to be exposed. Also, as gold moves up, more and more people will recognize the trend of gold is up, since 30% annual returns (the conservative figure) are hard to ignore.

6. It does not take into account that the dollar could actually go to its intrinsic value (of slightly over zero), which is that pre-printed paper (money) is worth about the same as scrap paper, such as used newspapers.

So, taking those factors into account, gold could rise to $10

[verwijderd] 22 december 2005 08:07

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So, taking those factors into account, gold could rise to $100,000/oz. if we account for most bond money moving into gold. Further, gold could rise to $1,000,000/oz. if we assume that the money supply will rise another ten fold in the next 15 years. Further, gold could rise to well beyond a million dollars an oz. if we assume people will be driven by mass psychology. And finally, gold could rise to infinity dollars if dollars will not purchase any gold at all.

Surprisingly, the next chart, taking nearly everything into account, does not look too much different than the previous one. The major difference appears to be only the final price, but it's that low only because you can't really design a graph that takes the dollar gold price to infinity dollars per oz., implying that dollars become utterly worthless. So, even the next chart is conservative, because gold could rise higher, and sooner than the following if the dollar dies sooner than 15 years from now.
I think it is rather important to note that these are not really true growth rates. They are actually decay rates. They show the dollar decaying. Gold's value cannot grow to infinity, but a dollar's value can decay away to nothing. So, I'm not saying that gold will have infinite value. I'm saying dollars will become worthless.

An oz. of gold, when it becomes widely used as money again, will probably have a value similar to what it had in historic times. An oz. of gold may be worth about a year's salary for a clerk, or may buy a modest home, and will be far, far too expensive for the average man to even have one ounce of gold. And therefore, for most monetary transactions (less than the modern equivalent of $40,000/oz.) we will need silver.

Silver

Due to the apparently impending silver shortage, Ted Butler at www.butlerresearch.com believes that silver will never be able to be used as money again, because silver will be too rare and too valuable. (I know, because I've asked him.) I think this is unrealistic, because you can always divide silver (or gold) into smaller and smaller pieces. It may be that a gram (1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams) of silver will be worth the modern equivalent of about $100-$200, and that could be achieved through electronic banking such as e-gold, or goldmoney, or E-silver! And for physical transactions smaller than that, copper could be a suitable substitute. This would imply a price of $3110/oz. -$6220/oz. for silver.

I respect Ted Butler a great deal, but there is one other key point about silver that I think he sometimes misses. Since he analyses silver mostly as a commodity and not money, I think he forgets that monetary demand for silver can increase as silver and gold prices rise. Rising prices will not reduce demand for silver, rising prices can create increased investment and monetary demand (because investors seek out returns, and because investors like to escape losses in devaluing dollars.)

I can understand why Ted Butler may not see things this way, since it is a difficult concept to understand, and not really even taught in economics. In economic theory, there are two terms, "Veblen good" and "Giffen good", both of which describe an item that "may theoretically exist" that people may want more of as the price rises. I believe gold and silver will be listed in the descriptions of "Veblen good" and "Giffen good", years from now, perhaps during the major bull move up in precious metals.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good

So, I actually expect that silver could reach a ratio of 5:1 to gold, due to the shortage of silver, and increasingly high investment demand for both metals in general. In that case, 5 ounces of silver would be worth a year's salary, or a modest home, or about 1/5th of today's $40,000, or about $8000 of today's money (not counting future inflation.) In such a scenario, I would expect that the silver miners would have the most profitable businesses in the world, as was the case:

As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said---
"It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw have been based on silver mines in Mexico."
--quote found by Charles Savoie

There are simply too many doomers and gloomers who think that if gold and silver go up, it will be bad for the economy--because that's what we've been taught by the central bankers who run everything. But that's nonsense! A high silver price creates wealth, but not for bankers, but for mine owners! Gold is a pure luxury item. How could it possibly hurt the average man if it's price goes up? Ask yourself, who would be hurt by higher gold prices? Only bankers, paper money counterfeiters, and gold debtors!

Today, many are concerned by higher commodity prices, as if China somehow will continue to devour all the copper on earth. Today, silver is produced as a byproduct of copper mining. Historically however, copper was produced as a byproduct of silver mining! If silver goes to the modern price equivalent of $8000/oz., it will not necessarily "collapse society" or "kill trade", or cause "mass violence". On the contrary, super high silver prices will spur a mining boom, which will create plenty of high paying mining jobs, and will produce an abundance of excess copper (and lead and zinc) in the process!

See: Rising Gold Prices Will Help The Economy - 02 December 2003
www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Risi...

And after a generation, perhaps, of a silver mining boom, silver prices may drop back down to the historical ratio of about 15:1 or 10:1 to gold. But now it's time to see silver rise to about $8000/oz. on a chart! This is a linear chart, showing silver compounding at 50% annually, starting in about 2006. Interestingly, you can't even see silver prices begin to rise on the chart until about 2010!

Do not wait until after silver starts compounding at 50% per year for 5 years in a row to start investing in silver! No, rather, you should start investing as early as possible, and you should not really care whether silver is $7/oz., or $9/oz. or even $25/oz. Anything under $100/oz. is probably a bargain for silver.

Now, before you email me to tell me that I'm crazy, please consider four things:

First, Asian central banks have $2.6 trillion U.S. dollar reserves, just in central banks, not including private dollar ownership, and not including their own paper wealth. At $500/oz., all the gold in all the world is valued at $2.5 trillion dollars, and the annual trading volume of gold is about $80 billion. If anything like 1/26th of Asian central bank dollar reserves tries to buy into the gold market, physical trading volumes will double. About 5000 tonnes of new buying will completely overwhelm a 5000 tonne annual market that is manipulated to the downside by the selling and leasing of about 1500 tonnes of central bank gold per year.

See: Central Banks now buying Gold
www.silverstockreport.com/email/dec8t...

Second, every paper currency that was ever printed in the history of the world eventually was devalued all the way to zero. Ask yourself: Are you are 100% sure that it cannot, ever, happen to the dollar? And ask yourself if the cost of making war on all of Asia, to defend the dollar and prevent all people everywhere in the world from buying gold, is really feasible? And if the U.S. printed up money to pay for su

[verwijderd] 23 december 2005 12:04

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Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The video of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's
Gold Rush 21 conference last August in Dawson
City, Yukon Territory, Canada, was completed
today by its producer, Trevor Johnston, and sent
to the DVD factory for mass manufacture. The
video's premiere will be at the Vancouver Resource
Investment Conference January 22 and 23:

www.cambridgeconferences.com/ch_van20...

In the meantime, you can view the DVD cover here:

www.gata.org/GR21DVDCover.html

And you can view brief excerpts from the DVD, a
real Hollywood-style movie trailer, here:

www.goldrush21.com/

The DVD contains a 25-minute summary of the
conference proceedings, outlining the gold
price suppression scheme of the central banks
and their accomplices, the bullion banks. The
DVD also contains a complete archive of all
the major presentations at Gold Rush 21. The
only thing missing from the DVD is Charlize
Theron, but it's so good that we don't really
need her.

The DVD will go on sale via the Internet
immediately after the premiere in Vancouver.
Details about that will be announced shortly.

GATA is confident that the DVD will have a
powerful impact on the gold market and other
markets. We're also hopeful that it will either
break the gold price suppression scheme or
drive the central banks and their accomplices
into the open, where their tactics will become
prohibitively destructive.

Please try to join us in Vancouver. Gold's day
is here.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[verwijderd] 30 december 2005 17:03

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Gold Heading for Highest Annual Close in Quarter of a Century
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold headed for its highest annual closing price in a quarter of a century in London, buoyed by investors seeking to diversify their portfolios.

Gold last ended a year above $500 an ounce in 1980. The metal has averaged $445.35 this year, its highest since 1987. Gold reached a 24-year high of $541 an ounce on Dec. 12 as investors diversified from stocks, bonds and currencies because of concern about inflation.

``With gold set to close above $500, the prospects of further gains in 2006 are looking very strong indeed,'' James Moore, a Kettering, England-based precious metals analyst at the TheBullionDesk.com, said in a report today. Gold will likely exceed $541 in 2006, he said in a telephone interview later.

Gold for immediate delivery was $3.63, or 0.7 percent, lower at $513.28 an ounce as of 11:10 a.m. in London. Investors sold bullion to take advantage of the 17 percent rally in prices this year, said analysts such as Ron Cameron from Ord Minnett Ltd. in Sydney. Gold closed at $589.75 in 1980 after reaching a record $850 in January of that year.

The gains in gold have reflected a broader interest in commodities. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which tracks a range of commodities including gold, has risen 38 percent this year. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index of U.S. stocks is 3.5 percent higher.

Investment funds tracking commodity indexes will double in value to $140 billion by 2010 as pension funds and other money mangers diversify away from stocks and bonds, said Benno Meier, vice president of investor product sales at Morgan Stanley, in an interview Nov. 29 in London.

Big Positions

``It's not just big positions by a few people. It's also small positions by many people,'' Frederic Panizzutti, a senior vice president at Geneva, Switzerland-based MKS Finance, a precious-metals trading and refining company, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

``The outlook for the new year would remain bullish, gaining support from positive technical and fundamental factors, such as strong global jewelry demand, increased investor interest of diversifying into commodities as an alternative asset class investment amid economic and geopolitical concerns,'' Standard Bank said in a market report on its Web site today.

Among other precious metals for immediate delivery, silver fell 6 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $8.78 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $964.50 an ounce, and palladium declined $1.50, or 0.6 percent, to $253.50 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Stuart Wallace in London at swallace6@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: December 30, 2005 07:06 EST

[verwijderd] 31 december 2005 17:05

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Why Salvation to Economic Disaster Lies With Gold

www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r... By Jon A. Nones 30 Dec 2005 at 04:02 PM

St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- It has been a good year for gold bugs. Today, gold futures closed at closed at $518.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.40 for the session. A year ago, the contract closed at $453.10, a gain of $65.80 or 14.5% in 2005. In an interview with Resource Investor, Jay Taylor, editor of the Gold & Technology Stock Report, said gold will continue to rise - but at the expense of the U.S. economy.

According to Taylor, the U.S. is heading towards a period of outright deflation. Soon, the Fed will no longer be able to keep the economy from imploding into a cascading debt default like we had in the 1930s, he said.

“There is no way of telling when we will reach the tipping point. But we will not likely see a new high for the equity market as a whole in the U.S. in our lifetime,” said Taylor.

With each monetary infusion aimed at overcoming deflationary pressures, deflationary pressures are growing all the more, Taylor said. Why so?

Because debt is the raw material from which money is manufactured in a fiat currency system, he answered. Debt is growing exponentially while income is growing in a linear fashion (see chart).

“It is rather shocking I think, and more than any other one picture, this tells why I think ultimately we end of with a deflationary collapse. The only question is whether we get hyper-inflation before the dreadful bust.”

Taylor created an “Inflation/Deflation Watch” as an indicator not only for predicting rising levels of inflation, but also in identifying areas that are rising more rapidly than the dollar is losing value.

In Taylor’s December newsletter, the Inflation/Deflation Watch indicates that 2006 will give us an even more rapid decline in the purchasing power of the dollar.

Three components of the Inflation/Deflation Watch, measured during the first 10 months of 2005, pushed the reading toward deflation, Taylor said.

Rogers (commodities)/Gold – Down 10.69%
U.S. Dollar/Gold – Down 14.78%
U.S. Global Liquidity Growth – Down 34.35%
First and most important was a 34.35% decline in the rate of U.S. dollar global liquidity from 14.47% to 9.67%, he said.

“At one point, this measure of global liquidity was growing at an annual rate of over 20% as Greenspan put the pedal to the metal to avoid deflation in 2003,” said Taylor.

The other two measures have to do with gold relative to commodities and the U.S. dollar. Gold rose faster than both of those items, which can be viewed as deflationary, he said.

Many investors see “helicopter” Ben Bernanke as further reason for concern, especially after suggesting that money should be created from whatever source is required to keep the economy rolling.

“In my view, Bernanke will be even more inflationary than Greenspan,” Taylor said.

According to Taylor, the most alarming proposal Bernanke has come up is the notion that the government could tax savings by perhaps 1% per month – thus imposing a negative interest rate. This would in turn force people to keep spending in order to ward off the depression/deflation.

“This of course is a socialist policy on top of all the others,” said Taylor. “It is exactly the opposite of what we should be doing, but given where we are now, more and more ‘heroin’ must ingested to delay the painful withdrawal. Eventually of course the heroin patient dies,” said Taylor.

Taylor concluded in his newsletter by saying “we need to buy assets that will rise in value at least as rapidly as the dollar purchasing power declines.”

Taylor told RI that gold is a good bet.

“Gold for either inflation or deflation. Gold stocks for the same reason, and perhaps some silver in there too,” Taylor said.

© Copyright 2005, Resource Investor.

[verwijderd] 2 januari 2006 18:19

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Another Banner Year for Gold

Gold did it again. For the fifth year in a row, gold ended the year higher, making it one of the best appreciating assets during this period.

The following table presents gold's performance over the past five years.

Year-end price % appreciation p.a.
Dec-00 $ 272.00
Dec-01 $ 278.70 2.5%
Dec-02 $ 347.60 24.7%
Dec-03 $ 415.70 19.6%
Dec-04 $ 437.50 5.2%
Dec-05 $ 517.10 18.2%
Average annual appreciation 14.0%

Will gold make it six years in a row? Only time will tell of course, but it looks to me as if 2006 will be another good one for gold. I expect gold to climb in 2006 for the same reasons it has been appreciating these past five years. And No.1 on the list is that the outlook for the dollar is getting worse.

The huge trade deficits are not sustainable. There is a limit as to how many IOUs the rest of the world will accept from the US. What's worse, this accumulation of debt is being funded with newly created dollars. The same is true for the growing federal budget deficit. New dollars are being created for each dollar of debt. All of this newly created money cheapens the dollar, and the erosion of its purchasing power – what we call "inflation" – is the result. So the outlook for the dollar remains bleak, but in 2005 something different happened. Gold started rising against all the world's currencies.

In my June 12th alert I noted how the impact of the French and Dutch rejection of the European constitution caused a rethinking about the euro, and more to the point, that it was no longer being viewed as the safe haven people thought it to be. Answering the question as to what these investors would do with their money, I said:

"Some national currencies may benefit from a flight from the dollar and the euro. The commodity-based countries like Canada and Australia may see their currencies strengthen against both the US dollar and the euro. And the Chinese yuan is surely going to rise against the dollar and the euro eventually. But these currencies cannot possibly handle all the hot-money looking for a safe home. So where will this money go?

The answer is clear to me – first and most importantly, it will go to gold. Then it will flow to a lesser extent to silver, other commodities and other forms of tangible assets."

The Canadian and Australian dollars remained strong for a while, but they too were eventually overwhelmed by the tide of money moving toward gold. In my alert on October 30th I noted how gold was breaking out against the Australian dollar, even though it had not yet broken out against the Canadian dollar. I then noted:

"So the Canadian dollar represents gold's last hurdle. Once C$572 has fallen, gold will have made significant breakouts against all the world's major currencies."

The Canadian dollar soon thereafter broke above that $572 hurdle. With this last hurdle behind it, gold began rising against all of the world's major currencies. This observation is important. We are in the early stages of wealth's flight from all national currencies into the safety and security of gold.

As for the future, one other comment from my October 30th alert seems timely. Commenting on gold's breakout against the world's major currencies, I said:

"What's even more important, these breakouts have been launched from huge bases of accumulation within long-term consolidation patterns. This fact means that there is enough support under gold for it to climb higher for many more years."

I expect that 2006 will be just the first of those "many more years".

___________________________________________

Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2006. All rights reserved.
Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com

[verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 09:20

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Gold Gains Most Since 2002 on Concern for Pace of Inflation
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York climbed 2.6 percent, the most since February 2002, on speculation that investors will buy bullion as an alternative to currencies because of concern about accelerating inflation.

Gold's rally was sparked by the dollar's biggest decline in three months against the euro, after a report showed the pace of U.S. manufacturing slowed. Gold jumped 18 percent in 2005 for the fifth straight annual gain, even as the dollar climbed 15 percent. The precious metal rose in all currencies last year, paced by a 36 percent value increase in yen and euros.

``We're trying to get exposure to gold as a hedge for a weakening dollar and the twin deficits,'' said Matthew Rudolf, a fund manager at Summit Capital Management LLC in Seattle with $400 million under management. Rudolf said he wants to increase the fund's gold-related holdings to 5 percent from 1 percent.

Gold futures for February delivery rose $13.60 to $532.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest daily percentage gain since Feb. 5, 2002. The metal reached a 24-year high of $544.50 on Dec. 12.

A futures contract is an obligation to sell or buy a commodity at a set price by a specific date.

Some analysts say record budget and trade deficits will weaken the dollar.

U.S. Deficits

The U.S. posted a record budget deficit of $412.5 billion in 2004. The shortfall narrowed to $318.6 billion in fiscal 2005. The deficit in the current account, the broadest measure of trade because it includes income from investments and transfer payments, last year widened to a record $665.9 billion from $530.7 billion.

``Gold is this storehouse of value that people want to maintain their purchasing power,'' said Ronald Goodis, retail trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``When people start losing confidence in the dollar and the euro, they turn to gold.''

A rise in all commodity prices signals inflation, analysts said. Gains in gold over the past year have reflected a broader interest in commodities.

Commodity prices, led by energy and metals, reached a 25- year high in early September as pension funds, hedge funds and investors poured more money into raw materials. The Reuters- Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities climbed 18 percent last year, and the energy-weighted Goldman Sachs Commodity Index gained 39 percent.

Alternative Currency

Gold has become an alternative reserve currency to both the U.S. dollar and the euro for second and third-tier central banks, said Dennis Gartman, economist and editor of Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter.

Russia, South Africa and Argentina said last year they would hold more gold. Central banks, mainly in the U.S. and Europe, hold almost a fifth of the world's gold.

``This is a bull market predicated upon disdain for all currencies,'' Gartman said.

A majority of traders, investor and analysts said gold may rise this week on concern inflation will accelerate and the dollar will weaken as the Federal Reserve halts a series of interest-rate increases.

Weekly Outlook

Ten of 18 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to Chicago on Dec. 29 and Dec. 30 advised buying gold. Four urged selling and four were neutral. Bloomberg's weekly gold survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 51 of 88 weeks, or 58 percent of the time.

The Fed, after raising its key interest rate 13 times since June 2004, on Dec. 13 stopped saying its monetary policy includes ``accommodation,'' suggesting the central bank is at or near a so-called neutral rate that neither spurs nor restrains growth.

``We still remain bullish in gold as interest rates will top out and the dollar will correct down,'' said Ravi Jalan of New Delhi-based Jalan Commodities.

The Fed lifted rates to 4.25 percent last month, and the European Central Bank in December raised its benchmark rate for the first time in five years to 2.25 percent, partly to head off inflation.

Gold climbed last year as investors bought bullion seeking a better return than U.S. stocks and bonds.

Sales of gold coins, bars and funds surged 56 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the World Gold Council has said.

The StreetTracks Gold Trust, created in November 2004 to invest in gold bullion, has attracted $3.91 billion from investors. Each share of the exchange-traded fund represents a 10th of an ounce of gold and allows mutual funds to invest without actually owning the metal.

Summit Management sold some of its holdings in StreetTracks Gold Trust when gold prices reached $510 in December, Rudolf said.

``Now the train is leaving again a like a lot of the world, we're hoping for a pullback,'' Rudolf said.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 3, 2006 14:36 EST

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[verwijderd] 5 januari 2006 12:02

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Stock Picks for 2006 Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel January 5th, 2006.

Two years ago, Jan. 2, 2004, I said to not invest in HL and CDE, as I calculated that they were overvalued relative to silver. See www.silverstockreport.com/reports/sil...

Here are the excerpts of what I said:

On HL, at $8.48/share, I concluded:

"And in 3 months, nobody has been able to rationally justify this high valuation to me, nobody from the company, and not a single email from any investor. I believe that this stock trades on market perception, reputation, and momentum. As for me, I'm not buying such intangibles. I'm buying silver in the ground, real assets, or exploration potential."

Today, HL is $4.28/share, for a loss of 50%.

On CDE, at $5.90/share:

"CDE and HL moved up in price significantly for the 3rd week in a row. Most likely due to new investors who know very little about how overpriced these two NYSE listed stocks really are, but all they may feel is that "silver stocks will outperform silver". But I don't think there is any reason for CDE and HL to continue to outperform silver from this point at today's stock prices."
...
"Now, if we can only get CDE and HL investors to get those two companies to buy physical silver, we will really see the beginning of a bull run in silver."

Today, HL is $4.32/share, for a loss of 27%.

At the time, silver was $5.95/oz., and headed to $8.40 in April 2004, before it crashed.

Today, silver is $9.10/oz. for a gain of 53%.

Those people who paid attention to the big picture fundamentals that I pointed out, and acted accordingly, were well rewarded.

The last two years have been a hard time for silver stock investors, as we've waited for silver to hit new highs again. And during this time, I helped people buy Capstone Gold at $.50/share, which rose to $1.10. I then called the top there, due to an $8 million private placement coming free trading, and I bought Capstone back again at another bottom at $.70, and still own it today at $1.19.

Those are two gains of 120% and 70%. Compounded, those are gains of 267%!

Also, recently, I called the bottom of CZN, buying this summer over 4 months at $.45, and CZN is now at $.90, for 100% gains!

I could mention that I'm sitting on gains of over 500% in Mines Management, but I bought that back in 2003, and it's just not a fair comparison--because that was before the difficult 2004 time period just referenced.

Yes, I lost money on a few stocks, too, but I didn't put much money into those--and subscribers to the look at my portfolio would have seen that, too. My biggest loss right now is Sterling Mining, as I bought too soon at an average of $3.95, which is down 16% to $3.30, but the fundamentals for Sterling are strong, and it has a very loyal following, which recently approved management by 92% of the voting shares.

So, what am I doing now, in 2006? I'd love to tell you!

Let me tell you about a company that has the following:
$33 million Market Cap.
$30 Billion worth of proven and probable reserves (yes, reserves, not resources, and yes, that's $30 Billion, with a B, $30,000,000,000.00, no typo there.)
For leverage of nearly 1000 to one!
They also have a preliminary feasibility study (the plans to mine) indicating cash costs of about 15% of metal value. Interested?

But look, they don't have $30 billion paper dollars in the ground, it's a mineral.

But if this were a gold mine in development, the gold equivalent, at $534/oz. would be:
56 million ounces of gold in proven and probable reserves...
With a prelim feasibility study indicating cash costs of $80/oz.

This would be, by far, the largest gold mine in the world, with the lowest cash costs in the world. What an unbeatable, one-two combination punch!

If this were a silver mine in development, the silver equivalent, at $9.11/oz. would be:
3.3 billion ounces of silver in proven and probable reserves...
With a prelim feasibility study indicating cash costs of $1.36/oz.

That's over 3 times as many silver ounces as owned by either SSRI or PAAS, whose ounces are scattered among over 10-20 projects!

Now, would it really matter if it was gold or silver? No. Of course not, investors would bid up a company like that to well over $1-3 billion in market cap within months, and you'd make from 30 to nearly 100 times your investment, (up to about 10,000% gains) from today's stock price.

But, actually, the mineral is not gold, neither is it silver, it's molybdenum! The beauty of Moly is that we don't have to wait for prices to skyrocket, because they already have, which has created this beautiful investment opportunity. Moly prices have risen over ten fold up to a high of $40/lb., and are now down to $23/lb.

The company has 1.3 billion pounds of moly in reserves, recently valued as high as $45 billion in the ground. Cash costs are $3.50/lb. (15% of today's moly price of $23/lb.)

The free market is based on allowing prices to freely move, as prices are the best indicator of telling us investors what the world wants and needs (and thus what to invest in).

If you believe in the efficiency of the free market at all, you should listen to what moly prices are saying, especially about the profitability implications of moly projects. Moly prices cannot be manipulated to the downside, as they are not traded on any futures exchange.

Moly prices have been above $15/pound for over a year and a half now, and are telling us to invest in a good moly project. It was just over a year ago, that this pre-drilled moly project, (drilled out years ago by Exxon) was acquired by this company, at a fire-sale low price from a private family who had been sitting on it for years.

This moly project will be wildly profitable at moly prices of $7/pound, and higher oil prices will not significantly impact the bottom line of production costs.

This moly project has the highest grades, and lowest costs, of any major moly project (or maybe even any mining project) in the world! The location is Nevada, and it's a stock I've featured before--and I've visited the site, and seen the drill cores in the wearhouses in the fall of 2005, so it's no scam. It's a new opportunity created by new, higher moly prices.

Yesterday and today, I've been buying even more of this junior stock, as its price is now on a dip. For the name of this company, you can either search my old emails, or sign up to the look at my portfolio ($39.95/month): www.silverstockreport.com/

There are two other companies I'd like to tell you about, this time by name. These two reports came out just yesterday, and are very timely. One stock is my largest holding, and the other stock I've been buying in the market just yesterday. To see which is which, again, just "Look at my portfolio".

But here are the reports (written by others, not me):

O.T Mining: It’s ‘Our Turn’
By David Zurbuchen
silverinscripture.com/OT_Mining_Repor...

Excerpts: How World-Class Turned into Wasteland (And back to world-class again!)
... Montana once held the much-lauded position of #1 mineral wealth producer in the United States. ...

During the late 1980's and early 1990's a strong nationwide environmental movement
drove mining, oil, and gas operations and exploration offshore. Montana was the base of
operations for the environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and many

[verwijderd] 5 januari 2006 22:50

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Expert: Gold Likely to Surge 24% in 2006?

Gold is already on a rampage as 2006 begins and rose 3.6% in the first couple of trading sessions on New York's COMEX exchange.

According to Frank Holmes, CIO at U.S. Global Investors, speaking on a special webcast to analysts and investors earlier this week, gold continues to be an inflation fighter's best friend - and a great hedge against any potential souring economy.

"We have a unique situation where all critical drivers for gold are pointing in the same direction," Holmes told listeners. During the webcast, Holmes touted six critical themes for investing in gold this year and emphasized why all of them point to higher gold prices.

"Right now, we are in a secular bull market in commodities because gold is the ultimate money, says Holmes, and because demand is now exceeding supply. "When paper money is being printed at an extreme rate, gold becomes more significant as a reserve currency," says Holmes. "It starts to show up in people's portfolios, and in governments."

Holmes identified key trends that should continue to drive gold prices upward:

- Fear of a slowing GDP, which leads to negative real interest rates. Gold is attractive when real interest rates are negative. Currently, there is a global wide fear of a slowing GDP. Historically, when Americans have been concerned about inflation, the price of gold has surged.

- Oil exporting countries are increasing their percentage of gold reserves. There has always been a strong interrelationship between gold and oil, and historically, gold and oil have always moved in the same direction. "With 3 billion people consuming 20 million barrels of oil per day... it is more likely that gold will rise before oil falls, because oil won't fall much," says Holmes. Russia announced in November plans to double gold reserves as a portion of all of its reserves, from 5% to 10%.

- China, which now has a trade surplus, is increasing its foreign reserve gold exposure. Incomes are increasing dramatically in China, and citizens are becoming big consumers of American and Chinese goods. The new Shanghai Gold Exchange, combined with the liberalization of citizens to freely buy gold and the culture's affinity toward gold, make gold an attractive asset.

- Low gold prices in the 1990s led to cuts in exploration and falling production -- which has ultimately led to a decrease in supply.

- Lower interest rates have curtailed hedging -- which also has led to diminished supply.

- The War on Terrorism has resulted in deficit spending and a weaker U.S. economy. The cost of war is hard on a country's currency, and a weaker U.S. currency always results in higher gold prices.

One area for gold bugs to look for is in mining inventories. Holmes says that the gold supply in key markets like South Africa, Australia and the US (the three countries account for 36% of the world's gold supply) are all experiencing drops in production. That scarcity of gold could also help bring gold prices higher over the next few months.

Holmes concluded his webcast by predicting that gold prices should reach $600 to $650 by January 2007.

[verwijderd] 7 januari 2006 10:08

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Through a Gold Bug's Eyes
Author James Turk thinks the metal can shine
brighter still, maybe even hitting $850 in 2006
BusinessWeek January 3, 2006

www.businessweek.com/investor/content...

Don't pity gold hoarders. Sure, when it's slumping, as is often the
case in boom years and when the U.S. dollar is strong, they're
ridiculed as eccentric and archaic. But this year they've enjoyed
plenty of vindication. Earlier in December the yellow metal topped
$540 per ounce, a 24-year high. Closing the year around $519, it has
plenty of analysts jumping on the bandwagon.

A sign of growing interest was the launch within the last year of
two exchange traded funds (ETF) that track gold: iShares Comex Gold
Trust (IAU) and streetTracks Gold Shares (GLD). Still, there are
skeptics who think gold won't continue its bull run (See BW,
12/26/05, "Hedging Against Inflation").

James Turk, author of the newsletter The Freemarket Gold & Money
Report, is a gold bug of long standing. A specialist in
international economics, he penned the 2004 book "The Coming
Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It: Make a Fortune by
Investing in Gold and Other Hard Assets" with John Rubino. Turk also
founded GoldMoney.com, a Web site that gives analysis and investment
advice on precious metals.

Turk recently spoke with BusinessWeek Online reporter Alex Halperin
about how high gold will go, who's buying it, and why. The following
are edited excerpts from their conversation.

Q: Why has gold climbed in the past few years?

A: Gold responds to monetary problems. For the first few years gold
was rising only against the dollar. The dollar had obvious problems
in terms of the trade deficit and the federal budget deficit. But
what has happened over the past years is that gold has been rising
against all national currencies, and that's significant.

What happens when there are problems with a national currency is
that people begin to worry about the value of their money, whether
they're going to lose purchasing power because of inflation or other
problems. As a consequence, they look for safe havens.

Initially, when there were problems with the dollar, people saw the
euro as safe. But in May, after the French and Dutch votes that
rejected the European constitution, people began looking at the euro
and realized it wasn't the haven they thought it was. Since then the
riots in France and all the other bad news coming out of Europe have
reinforced that view. Consequently, money has been moving to gold.

Q: But haven't European countries been selling their gold?

A: They have, but they haven't been selling enough to keep prices
from rising. The demand for gold has been very strong worldwide, and
it's going to get stronger. Gold has reached the $500 level, which
has eluded it for the past 24 years. Everyone who has bought gold
over the past 24 years is making money.

It's still below its high in January, 1980, of approximately $850.
In today's dollars [taking inflation into account], to match the
purchasing power, you need $2,200 and gold's only at $519, so we're
well below the 1980 high.

Q: How high do you think it's going to go?

A: My expectation is that we're going to see $600 in the first
quarter of 2006, and some time over the course of 2006 we're going
to touch that $850 level.

Q: Why is it such an unusual view that gold is going to keep rising?

A: Gold has been off everyone's radar screens for the past 20 years
because it has basically been in a sideways trading range. As a
consequence, a lot of things changed. People have been focusing more
on financial assets than on tangible ones. Just like we had a
movement at the end of the 1960s bull market from financial assets
into tangibles, over the past few years we've had a movement from
financial into tangible assets as well after the stock market peaked
in 2000. ... We're up now five years in a row. I think 2006 is going
to be the sixth.

Q: People aren't oblivious to it. For example, The Economist called
gold a "barbarous relic." Why is there such hostility?

A: There's a lot of anti-gold propaganda, partly because economic
theories don't explain what gold is and how it works. It became
politically incorrect to think of gold as money once it had
supposedly been demonetized in 1971, when President Nixon closed the
gold window. But the reality is, monetary theory is one thing and
the way gold works in the real world is entirely different.

Q: You mentioned that gold isn't politically correct. What do you
mean?

A: In 1971 Nixon closed the gold window -- he said that gold was
being demonetized. The reality is that gold still is money, but
what's being demonetized is the dollar. Every year the purchasing
power of the dollar is being eroded by inflation.

Q: Why is gold still a safe haven?

A: The way it works is gold is money. Gold is the only asset we
produce for accumulation. Every other good and service we produce is
consumed. Gold is hoarded. Essentially all the gold ever mined
throughout history currently exists in above-ground stocks. That's
not true for anything else. Even copper is consumed in the sense
that it is dispersed in millions of applications around the globe.
The fact that gold is hoarded is what makes it money. And it's very
useful for economic calculations for prices of goods and services
over long periods of time.

Q: Wouldn't it be better to invest in something like copper, which
is so useful? You know that eventually someone's going to want to
buy it.

A: Copper has use in terms of industrial applications. Gold has use
in monetary applications. So you'd buy copper if you want to build
engines. You buy gold if you want to have a safe haven for your
money.

Q: Who is interested in buying gold these days?

A: The most significant buyers over the past few years have been
individuals. Gold goes to where the wealth is being created. So for
example, the European central banks have been disgorging gold from
their vaults, and that gold is going to China and India because
that's where new wealth is being created. Gold is also going to the
Middle East with the rise in energy prices.

Q: So the central banks of China and India are accumulating gold?

A: The Central Bank of China apparently is buying. There has been no
evidence that the Central Bank of India is buying. But individuals
in those countries are accumulating the gold, and that's what
Americans have to be looking at.

Q: How can an individual invest in gold?

A: We use the term "investment," but that's a little bit misleading.
The amount of crude oil that you can buy with an ounce of gold is
the same as it was 50 years ago. So in that sense, gold hasn't
really provided any rate of return. What we call the rate of return
in gold is actually the loss of purchasing power of the dollar.

You can only have a rate of return when you take that gold and take
risks with it, as you would a normal investment. You either take
that gold and buy stocks with it, or you lend it to generate some
kind of rate of return. So when you look at an investment portfolio
and you have stocks, bonds, and cash, gold should be counted as part
of your cash. It should be that part of the portfolio that provides

[verwijderd] 7 januari 2006 10:11

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You can only have a rate of return when you take that gold and take
risks with it, as you would a normal investment. You either take
that gold and buy stocks with it, or you lend it to generate some
kind of rate of return. So when you look at an investment portfolio
and you have stocks, bonds, and cash, gold should be counted as part
of your cash. It should be that part of the portfolio that provides
liquidity.

Q: What do you think of the gold exchange traded funds?

iShares Comex Gold Trust and streetTracks Gold Shares are not an
alternative to owning physical metal. They're a convenient way to
speculate on the price of gold. They don't prove that the gold
actually exists in the vaults of the custodians and the sub-
custodians with an audit.

Q: If the dollar becomes stronger again or another currency emerges
as the sort of investment that people want to put money into, will
it affect the price of gold?

A: A few years ago when the dollar was beginning to fall of the edge
of a cliff, people started putting their money into the euro. But in
the past few years we've seen the price of gold rising not only
against the dollar but also against the euro, the Swiss franc, and
the Japanese yen. Gold is rising in terms of every major national
currency. You haven't had this since the 1970s. What happened then
was there was a flight out of national currency because people
became concerned about inflation and other monetary problems. This
is going to continue, in my view, in the years ahead.

[verwijderd] 8 januari 2006 10:47

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Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Justice Litle has written a wonderful little essay
about silver for Daily Reckoning's "Rude Awakening"
department. In principle it won't tell you more than
you've heard from Ted Butler but it includes some
great anecdotes and is awfully entertaining. It's
called "Hi-Ho, Silver!" and you can find it here:

www.the-rude-awakening.com/RAissues/2...

Note that GATA's friends at Anglo Far-East Bullion
Co. in Hong Kong have been aware of silver's
potential and have been offering a silver bullion
savings account service:

www.anglofareast.com/silversavingsacc...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[verwijderd] 8 januari 2006 19:30

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Beste Gung,ik heb een aantal turbo's met onderliggende goud en zilver waarde. Nu heb ik laatst bij die correctie natuurlijk een enorme draai om mijn oren gehad....
Hoe kan ik nu de goud en zilverprijs op een dagelijkse basis volgen; met andere woorden heb je zoiets als futures en misschien een of andere website of nieuwsbron waar je goud en zilver nieuwtjes kan volgen zodat je als simpele belegger enigszins in staat bent de richting van de volatiliteit te voorzien. Mij lijkt ook dat de prijzen omhoog gaan maar ik zou de correcties graag willen zien aankomen. ik ken natuurlijk kitco en die russische site met de realtime koersen etc,... maar misschie kun je me een betere bron adviseren. dank voor je moeite. grt. roos

[verwijderd] 9 januari 2006 23:37

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Beste Roos,

Als.......... ik het allemaal exact zou weten. Helaas, wel zou ik nooit long gaan voor een rente beslissing van de FED. Traditioneel gaat goud dan omlaag, rah rah waarom, short gaan een paar dagen ervoor loont kan ik je verzekeren verder helpt een real time systeem om snel vast te stellen wanneer er interventies plaatsvinden die dan figuurlijk meestal gekoppeld met diamonds om tegelijkertijd deDow op te krikken. Al met al antwoorden waar je feitelijk niet zoveel aan hebt. Hou dus altijd rekening met forse uitslagen naar beneden, hoge volatiliteit dus. Een wat rustiger belegging in zowel goud en zilver is bv Central Fund of Canada (CEF)DYODD
Succes GH

Gold's get-up-and-go Peter Brimelow
CBSMarketWatch Monday, January 9, 2006
www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?
column=Peter+Brimelow&siteid=mktw&dist=

NEW YORK -- Forget the stock market. Gold's performance during the
four-day first trading week of 2006 was nothing short of stunning.
The precious metal's supporters among investment letters say there's
more to come.
Up $22.30, or 4.3%, gold surpassed the multiyear high it established
in mid-December, and two days last week saw double-digit gains.
Moves of that magnitude have been very rare in the past decade.
The Privateer, Australia's leading gold-watching Web site, noted
over the weekend that now that gold's consolidated above the $500-an-
ounce level, it has "firmly established itself in the second leg of
what is going to prove a very big bull market."
Of course, the U.S. dollar faltered badly last week, but gold rose
steeply in other currencies too. Indeed, the major currency basket
represented by the Dollar Index lost slightly less than 2%, meaning
less than half the gain that gold made can be attributed to the
behavior of the dollar.
Gold's dynamism has impressed friend and enemy alike. In his latest
Freemarket Gold & Money Report, veteran James Turk, a gold friend,
takes a bold stand, saying readers should "get ready for some huge
and exciting fireworks."
"I do not anticipate gold will again trade below $500 -- ever. ...
Readers know that my target for this year is a new record high for
gold above $850," he wrote. "I am now thinking that we might see
that new record high before the end of March."
Supporting the gold bulls, market sentiment hasn't moved much,
comparatively speaking.
Consider Mark Hulbert's gold newsletter sentiment index, which
reflects the average exposure to the gold market among a group of
short-term gold timing newsletters. It stood at 28.57% at the end of
2005 and closed the first week of 2006 at 42.91%. By comparison, the
index's upper bound of its range is 89.6%.
MarketVane's bullish consensus for gold stood at 85%, exactly where
it started the year. It saw 90% in mid-December.
What of the shares? Both the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU)
and the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) were up 9.1% last week, still
rather sluggish considering the move in bullion.
But crucially, they both managed to exceed the top of trading ranges
that have contained them since late 2003. James Turk speaks of "the
XAU just starting to break out from the huge 'head-and-shoulders'
bottom pattern. This pattern presents a multiyear base of
accumulation, which is very bullish. and can support much higher
prices for years to come."
Speaking of sentiment, the gold mutual funds as a group may still
reportedly have experienced net redemptions last week!
So why's gold moving? Some speak of tensions in the Middle East,
others mention apprehension about Ben Bernanke, incoming chairman of
the Federal Reserve. There also are rumors of central-bank buying
and of hedge-fund activity.
Since the gold ETF (GLD) has suddenly started adding large volumes
of gold to its holdings, there may indeed be fresh institutional
appetite.
Freemarket Gold & Money Report's Turk and Le Metropole Café's Bill
Murphy, who both believe gold has been suppressed by a selling
cartel for years, suggest this syndicate is breaking down,
endangering large shorts. (Full disclosure: Work by my brother John,
an occasional columnist for MarketWatch, also appears on Le
Metropole Café).
Murphy has just reproduced an article he carried in mid-November
pointing out that huge January call positions had been purchased in
gold equities.
Eerily prescient! Could someone have known something?

[verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 17:15

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With Gold Over $500 by Gary North

In the October, 2001, issue of my subscription-based newsletter, Remnant Review, I began promoting gold. I was persuaded that the long decline, 1980–2001, was over. I was also convinced that the best way to make money was in North American gold shares. Those who took my advice have made well over 100% on their money.

In the opening paragraph of the November 21, 2003, issue of Remnant Review, I wrote this:

Those of you who have followed my advice on gold since 2001 are way ahead financially. But gold's price seems to have gotten stalled in the 390's. This may be because of increased central bank leasing. It may be because people who hold gold really don't think it will stay above $400, so they sell. My view is that the dollar has not yet begun to fall to the extent that the balance of payments deficit indicates that it should. So, I still recommend that people be heavy investors in gold.
One of the factors that persuaded me in 1991 that gold had hit bottom was a report issued by some woebegone gold broker. He wailed that he had had enough. For over two decades, gold's price had fallen, and he was not going to promote it as an investment any longer. Gold was finished! On the contrary, he was finished. That's the kind of announcement that marks the absolute bottom of a market.

Then there was the ad campaign, disguised as an investment strategy, issued by long-term gold coin company, Blanchard & Co. By then, Jim Blanchard was dead and gone. I wrote the following in the February 15, 2002, issue of Remnant Review.

With gold moving up the way it has, you now know why I asked Sam Parks four months ago to start writing a column on North American gold shares. I wanted to get you back in early. I hope you did. If not, it's time. The boom has begun.
The classic sign of an imminent bull market for anything is when old-time sellers and advocates of the item bail out. They tell their clients or disciples, "It's all over. Change direction. Sell." The following news has come as a surprise to us old-time gold bugs. Blanchard Co. coins, one of the two most widely known retail sellers of gold coins in the United States (along with Jim Cook's Investment Rarities), has made an about-face. It has done what no company is ever supposed to do: it has publicly abandoned its USP – its unique selling proposition. This is the marketing equivalent of Jimmy Dean going kosher.

I first spoke at a Blanchard conference in 1974. Always, the Blanchard organization has been pro-gold. But then Jim Blanchard sold Blanchard coins. With one utterly bizarre ad campaign, this company has tossed out the original Blanchard position on gold. You will probably see this ad. In case you should be tempted to believe the ad, let me go over its main arguments. Blanchard has a lot of money – this week, anyway – to promote its new message. So, these ideas may spread into the hard-money camp. Here is the new message:

Gold bullion is no longer a hedge against inflation, devaluation of the dollar or falling stock prices. It is no longer a store of value. The very idea of gold's intrinsic value – value that is not dependent upon the actions or promises of any government – is publicly questioned by senior central bankers and by the heads of major financial institutions. Perhaps most importantly, gold is no longer insurance against economic, monetary and political crises, including war, that diminish the value of financial assets.

www.newsmax.com/adv/blanchard.htm

Note: this page is now gone. It was still on-line in December, 2003. Fortunately, you can still find it on Archive.org.
I cannot recall any comparable instance where an old-line company in any industry made this radical a switch of its public positioning without warning. It is one thing to emphasize a new product line – risky, but not suicidal. But to revamp a company's entire philosophy overnight is a textbook case of what not to do. Whoever is running Blanchard today has bet the farm on a falling price for gold. A stable price won't do it. The ad copy writer calls today's gold price a bear trap.

Gold bullion is caught in a bear trap. If the price of gold goes up, the institutions and corporations that have the most money, the most gold, the most information about gold and the most ability to influence gold's price, lose money. Recent events have proved that those institutions and corporations have the power to slam the brakes on any increase in the price of gold, no matter how compelling the macroeconomic story behind the increase might be.
The final sentence is of course true. "Recent events have proved that those institutions and corporations have the power to slam the brakes on any increase in the price of gold, no matter how compelling the macroeconomic story behind the increase might be." So have events over the last 22 years. Central bankers always possess this power, and they have exercised it on occasion in the past. So, what has changed recently? This: Blanchard's marketing strategy.

I went on to offer evidence that the ad was categorically wrong. I concluded:

If price deflation really is coming, despite monetary inflation, gold could fall. But I think today's monetary inflation will secure the U.S. economy against a price-deflationary scenario. The other major negative factor, another series of unexpected gold sales by central banks, is increasingly unlikely. They are running out of gold, despite the statistics on unchanging official reserves. They can sell gold reserves again, but at some point, the game must end. We are closer to the end than five years ago, when the gold-leasing strategy was adopted.
HAS THE GAME ENDED?

With gold above $500, should we conclude that the central banks' gold leasing strategy has ended? I don't think so. The interest rate at which gold bullion "banks" can borrow gold, sell it to the public, and invest the money at higher rates than they are paying to borrow the gold, indicates that the game is still going on. If you were one of the favored few, you could borrow gold at 0.14 of a percent per annum.

www.thebulliondesk.com
To see today's rate, click the button, "Leases."

This low rate indicates that there is some worry about borrowing gold, for the debtors must repay in gold, or so the contracts say. This assumes that central banks won't keep rolling over the contracts, year after year. They will, of course. They have no choice. In a true gold rush, the borrowing bullion banks will not be able to afford to deliver physical gold to central banks. It has been sold, and any attempt to buy back large quantities would blow the price of gold through the roof. So, if central banks press the bullion banks, the bullion banks will declare bankruptcy. That would force the central banks to take the leased gold off of their official books. Leased gold is counted as gold in the vault. The central bankers are not about to admit officially to their respective governments that they have sold the reserves to the favored bullion banks at a piddly 0.14% per annum.

Why is the rate low? Because central banks are competing for the right to lease their gold, and the number of takers has fallen. The bullion banks know that being short gold – legally having to return physical gold in the future – is getting more risky. Interest rates have fallen worldwide, so the profits from the carry trade – borrowing from a government-subsidized central b

[verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 17:17

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The bullion banks know that being short gold – legally having to return physical gold in the future – is getting more risky. Interest rates have fallen worldwide, so the profits from the carry trade – borrowing from a government-subsidized central bank and lending money to the public – have declined. The risk-reward ratio is getting heavier on the risk side. Demand for borrowed gold has fallen, so the price of borrowed gold has fallen.

The game has slowed, but it has not ended. The gold lease market is still a price-reducing factor in the gold market. There are still well-heeled speculators who are willing to borrow gold, sell it, and invest the proceeds. But enthusiasm has waned, as reflected in the fall of the interest rate demanded.

Central banks continue to get rid of their enormous hoards of gold. The leasing program is a disguised gold sale program. The central banks are returning gold bullion to the great-grandchildren of the victims whose gold was confiscated by the banks in 1914, when World War I broke out, and in 1933, when Franklin Roosevelt unilaterally made it illegal for Americans to own gold bullion. Gold is being de-monetized even further.

IS THIS A TURNING POINT?

With gold breaking the $500 barrier, some gold bugs and other odd-ball forecasters will tell their clients that gold is in a new bull market. Well, gold has been in a bull market for over three years. The $500 barrier has little to do with this.

The buyers of investment gold are still few and far between. The memory of the two decades of falling prices, coupled with bear trap rallies that were heralded as new bull markets, has driven most investors out of the gold market. Gold coin investors still have only a handful of brokers to call. But you can still get through after three rings.

The people who are driving up gold's price are not little people who buy a few gold coins. The big players are jewelry fabricators, industrial users, and (maybe) a few central banks that are quietly adding to their holdings. China is the #1 suspect. But, at this stage of the gold boom, large investors are either absent or else buying for their accounts quietly. We have not begun to see a gold boom.

When you start receiving direct-mail flyers on the gold boom, then the boom will be well established. Today, these flyers are inserts in existing newsletters, which are dying off as their subscribers die off. These inserts reach few potential buyers.

The mainstream investment houses are not actively promoting gold. When three or four large brokerage houses start offering gold bullion mutual funds that are comparable economically, though perhaps not legally, to the tiny Central Fund of Canada, we will know that the boom has reached midpoint.

HOW HIGH?

You do not hear people asking how high Microsoft's shares will go. They assume that the price will rise forever, or at least until two weeks after they retire and sell their shares. You may hear predictions about the top of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but not too many. This is because the hypesters who proclaimed Dow 36,000 have tarnished the Dow forecasting business, an outcome which was one of the positive aspects of the Dow's fall from its peak of just under 12,000 in 2000.

Then why does anyone announce gold's top at a particular price? I think it's mainly to confirm his readers that he thinks the price per ounce will rise. One large number is as good as any other.

Anything over $3,000 is basically a forecast of the collapse of the dollar.

My hesitation to predict the collapse of the dollar is my doubt regarding the currency that would replace it if it really did collapse. The euro is the main candidate, but it is a fiat currency, too. It can be reduced in value by the same tried and true central bank policies that have reduced the dollar's purchasing power by over 95% since 1913.

The international currency system is like a group of drunks staggering home after a night at the pub. They hold each other up. If one of them really got sober and stood tall, the others would pull him down by sheer inertia.

In marketing terms, if holders of dollars all decided to exchange dollars for one currency, that currency would rise in its dollar-denominated value to such an extent that the nation's exporters would be ruined. America is the world's mouth. There are too many exporters trying to feed it. Of course, the day will come when the world's mouth will become the world's alimentary canal. American companies and governments will start paying off their creditors in dollars of rapidly declining purchasing power. But when it comes to declining purchasing power, the world's other central banks can play the game, too.

Gold bullion as an inflation hedge will continue to do well, but it is unlikely to become the world's currency that replaces the dollar. If it did, then gold's price really would go ballistic. A $10,000 or $20,000 gold price would be reasonable. But there will always be other central banks working to replace the dollar with their currencies, thereby keeping gold out of the currency markets.

The price of gold at $10,000+ would indicate a severe international monetary crisis: a run on all currencies, not just the dollar. That would indicate a complete shift in public opinion back to a commodity monetary standard. It would be accompanied by a breakdown of the division of labor. Gold at $10,000 would produce an economy in which gold holders would face falling income from their businesses and other income-generating sources. Anyone who predicts $10,000 gold is predicting a breakdown so severe that his life is at risk.

DON'T GET STAMPEDED

Gold is a solid investment in more ways than one. But it should be regarded by investors as supplemental. It is like a government's Treasury Department asset. It is better to have that asset in a time of inflation than it is to have other nation's bonds, but citizens of a nation whose treasury that has only gold in reserve would be at risk in a worldwide breakdown. It is much better for a nation to have an empty treasury and no debt outstanding than it is for it to have a treasury with a pile of gold. A war will deplete a gold hoard very fast. So will a depression, when tax receipts fall. What a nation needs is productivity and a highly developed division of labor. That's what people need, too.

Most investors have so little gold in their portfolios that they probably could use a little hype from gold brokers. But when the hype is everywhere, it will be time to switch to other assets. That is years away, I think.

Because most investors buy only when stampeded, most investors lose. They buy high and sell low. I am writing for people who have heard about gold, who may even have bought a few coins (but probably not), and who are telling themselves, "If gold ever drops to $495, I'll buy more." They won't. If the opportunity ever presents itself, they will wait until it falls to $475.

It's better to buy when you feel that it's the last train out, but only if you are in a small group. When millions of people have heard the story of gold and who think it's the last train out, it will be time to invest in something more conventional.

I realize that by refusing to hype gold, I am encouraging you to play Scarlett O'Hara: "Fiddle-dee-dee. I'll think about it tomorrow." I am asking you to think like a thoughtful Southern plantation owner in 1859, who sold his family's

[verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 17:18

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I realize that by refusing to hype gold, I am encouraging you to play Scarlett O'Hara: "Fiddle-dee-dee. I'll think about it tomorrow." I am asking you to think like a thoughtful Southern plantation owner in 1859, who sold his family's land and his slaves for gold the day after the court hanged John Brown for treason, and then put his money on deposit in several English banks. It's not that you would have trusted in gold in 1859. It's that you would have trusted the American political system even less. You would have been looking to buy half a dozen plantations in, say, 1867. But you also would have been willing to forego a big profit in gold if you had been able to avoid the war.

Of course, no self-respecting plantation owner would have done that in 1859. This indicates that too much self-respect can ruin the plans of the best of us. If you live in a country in which theft has become a way of life – "Thou shalt not steal, except by majority vote" – don't tie your self-respect to the wisdom of the government's policy-makers, including its central bankers.

CONCLUSION

Gold above $500 is more of an alarm bell than a turning point. The turning point for gold happened over two years ago, before 9-11. Gold over $500 is a small headline on the business page. But it's more significant than a headline in a small-circulation newsletter.

[Note: I published this report, except for changes in the price of gold and the gold leasing rate – today, half of what it was when I wrote this – in Gary North's Reality Check for December 2, 2003. That issue was titled, "With Gold Over $400." I republish it here for a reason: to remind procrastinators in 2003 not to procrastinate in 2006.]

January 11, 2006

Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit www.garynorth.com.He is also the author of a free 17-volume series, An Economic Commentary on the Bible.

[verwijderd] 14 januari 2006 10:32

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The Illusion of a Rising Dow Peter Schiff
January 14, 2006

This week, Wall Street strategists cheered as the Dow Jones closed above 11,000 for the first time in four and a half years. As a result, many are now predicting a new all-time high, which would see the index finally exceeding its 11,750 peak first reached back in January of 2000. Do not succumb to the hype.

11,750 hardly has the same purchasing power today as it did in January of 2000. The significant inflation of the last six years (bogus CPI numbers not withstanding) has rendered any direct dollar comparisons meaningless. To get a more accurate assessment, try measuring the index in terms of something other than depreciating dollars. Historically, the best comparison is relative to gold. Back in January of 2000, with the Dow Jones at 11,750 and gold at $280 per ounce, the Dow was worth about 42 ounces of gold. Today, with the Dow at 11,000 and gold over $550 per ounce, the Dow is only worth less then 20 ounces of gold. In other words, measured in terms of gold, the Dow has actually declined in value by over 50%. To make a real new high, given the current price of gold, the Dow would have to rise above 23,000.

Some people might think that this comparison is unfair, as the price of gold has risen. However, the reality is that it is not the price of gold that has risen, but the value of the dollar that has fallen. As a result, more dollars are now required to buy an ounce of gold, the true value of which has remained constant. The same thing has happened with stocks. As the dollar loses value, more of them are required to buy the Dow Jones as well. Since 2000, both the dollar and the Dow have lost value, but the dollar's decline has been faster. That is why the dollar price of the Dow has been rising, even as the value of both the dollar and the Dow continue to decline relative to gold.

The is very similar to the situation during the 1960's and 1970's, when the Dow repeatedly flirted with the 1,000 level. However, though each failed attempt was greeted with much fanfare, they were rendered meaningless by inflation. By the time the Dow finally broke through 1000 in 1982, it has lost almost 90% of its value relative to gold. It wasn't until 1997, when the Dow broke 7,000 that the Index finally regained the equivalent value relative to gold that it had in 1966, over thirty years earlier.

Gold actually acts as an objective measure of value against which other assets may accurately be priced. Pricing assets in terms of a fiat currency can be misleading, especially during periods of rapid inflation (an excessive expansion of the supply of money and credit.) One of the many reasons politicians favor inflation is that it creates the illusion of increased wealth among the electorate. Measuring wealth in terms of gold allows voters to see through the deception and gain more realistic perspectives on their true financial situations.

I have chosen gold as the best measure of the Dow's value for the simple reason that gold is money. Behind all the hype and rationalization, gold is bought, traded and horded for its monetary attributes. Pricing the Dow in terms of any other commodity would not yield as true a measure, as other supply and demand factors might be at work. However, pick any other commodity or asset class you wish (oil, copper, sugar, Swiss francs, condos, etc,) and the Dow has lost a considerable amount of value against it. Any way you price it, the Dow has a long way to go to make a legitimate new high.

January 13, 2006

Do not wait for the winds to build. Take decisive action before it is too late. Download my free research report on protecting your wealth in advance of the coming dollar collapse at www.researchreportone.com and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter...

Peter Schiff
C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
1 800-727-7922
email: pschiff@europac.net
website: www.europac.net

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Ablynx	43	13.356
ABN AMRO	1.582	51.200
ABO-Group	1	22
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Accell Group	151	4.132
Accentis	2	264
Accsys Technologies	23	10.525
ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES PLC	218	11.686
Ackermans & van Haaren	1	188
ADMA Biologics	1	34
Adomos	1	126
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Aegon	3.258	322.654
AFC Ajax	538	7.086
Affimed NV	2	6.287
ageas	5.844	109.885
Agfa-Gevaert	14	2.048
Ahold	3.538	74.292
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Altice	106	51.198
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Amarin Corporation	1	133
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AMG	971	133.057
AMS	3	73
Amsterdam Commodities	305	6.686
AMT Holding	199	7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp	2	485
Antonov	22.632	153.605
Aperam	92	14.920
Apollo Alternative Assets	1	17
Apple	5	380
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Avantium	32	13.610
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