Forum: » Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

[verwijderd] 18 september 2006 11:03

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Wait for gold to decouple from base metals
From: Paul van Eeden
As expected, more talk of a slowing US economy caused base metals prices to continue their decline this week and, as expected, falling base metals prices dragged the gold price down as well. Very few institutional investors differentiate between gold and other metals; they bought them all as a hedge against a weaker US dollar, so when they finally wrapped their heads around the fact that the US economy can slow down and that a slowing economy will cause a decline in base metals demand, they started selling their metals -- including gold.

On Monday, Cathy Minehan, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, commented on the risks that the slowing housing market could pose to the US economy. She was speaking at a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics and a survey of the Association’s economists revealed that they, too, expected the US economy to post below-trend growth for the rest of this year and into 2007.

The Bank of Japan also kept its interest rates unchanged without giving away any clues as to when, or if, it might raise interest rates again. There is some speculation that weakness in the Japanese economy could deter the BOJ from raising interest rates in the near future and this dampened enthusiasm for base metals further.

Most investors (both individual and institutional) are reactionary, and when they read about negative sentiments such as these they react by giving sell orders to their brokers, which is precisely what happened this week.

US money supply (as measured by my own estimate of M3) increased by 8.4% over the past twelve months. Current gold inflation, which is mine supply as a percentage of all above-ground gold (all the gold that has been mined to date), is around 1.6% per annum. That is why the gold price continues to rise against the US dollar over time – it is as simple as that. In the short term, however, exchange rates and investor sentiment also have to be brought into account and it is mostly they that cause short-term volatility. But in the long-term, the gold price in any currency will rise by an amount equal to the difference between its inflation rate and the inflation rate of the currency you price it with.

My model of the gold price (based on the inflation rates of gold and the US dollar) puts the gold price at around $900 an ounce with the difference between the current gold price and $900 being accounted for by an over-priced US dollar. For gold to rise from $600 an ounce to $900 an ounce requires the dollar to fall, on average, by 50%. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said earlier this year that the dollar had to fall by 35% to 50% in order to balance the US current account gap. I don't know how they came up with those figures, but they correspond very well to my own expectation of how much the dollar should decline.

If the gold price is going to rise to $900 an ounce then gold at under $600 an ounce is starting to look attractive again, but there is still downside risk in base metals and until the gold price uncouples from base metals prices I would not get too aggressive on the buy side. But gold will decouple, because unlike base metals, its value (and long-term price) is not dependent on economic growth.

Paul van Eeden

[verwijderd] 21 september 2006 09:16

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Goud als vluchthaven voor Arabieren. Guy Boscart US Markets

De CRASH in Saudi Arabie zet zich onverminderd voort ... De Index bereikt al niveaus rond de 10.000 pnt en dat is reeds een daling van 11.000 pnt binnen amper 3 maand ... Dat dit gevolgen kan hebben op de andere wereldmarkten lijkt me door de kooplust in het Goud als vluchthaven door de Arabieren lijkt me dan ook meer dan duidelijk ... Vreemd dat we daar vrij weinig over lezen ... De CRASH in de woestijn kan nog een staartje krijgen ....

De analyse :

Ik heb er al 2 keer een artikel over geschreven en daar heb ik aangegeven dat deze index richting de 7500 of zelfs tot de 6000 of 5000 pnt terug zou kunnen. Toen stond de index eerst nog op 15.500 pnt, de 2e keer dat ik het erover had op 13.500 pnt, vandaag staat er 10.600 pnt op het bord en de 10.400 pnt werd al aangeraakt. ( zie: CRASH in de WOESTIJN !!! en CRASH in de WOESTIJN zet door ). Ook nu zien we nog in geen enkele krant wat daar aan de hand is, beetje vreemd want zo`n Crash moet toch opvallen? Een index die binnen iets meer dan 2 maand meer dan halveert !!

Toch is de daling een typisch voorbeeld van wat er in 1929 gebeurde op Wall Street, en wat er met de Nikkei gebeurde begin jaren 90.

Dichter bij huis zien we sterke overeenkomsten met de Nasdaq na de jaarwisseling van 2000 en uiteraard ook met onze eigen AEX gedurende diezelfde periode. Een top, een correctie met poging de boel weer op gang te krijgen. Daarna hervat de daling nog feller en met nog meer volumes.

Kan zoiets ook bij ons gebeuren ?

Bij de stijging op beurzen in Brazilië, India, Japan en uiteraard nog meer zien we dat de stijgingen precies zo zijn als bij bovenstaande index voor de knak. Als de knak er komt bovenaan bij veel andere indices dan denk ik dat er nog meer artikelen van deze orde komen de komende tijd. Ook Europa met vooral Duitsland, België en Frankrijk en in iets mindere mate onze eigen AEX stevenen af op een top, en ook daar kan een brute correctie voor zeer veel schade gaan zorgen.

Ook Wall Street loopt op richting zeer gevaarlijke niveaus maar in de VS is de situatie ook door de dreigende inflatie en de daarom wegzakkende dollar een extra gevaar. Let er ook op dat het Goud enorm aan het stijgen is, ik denk dat de Arabieren door de enorme daling hun centen in het Goud en andere metalen aan het stoppen zijn, zeker omdat dollarbeleggingen geen alternatief opleveren en omdat de angst voor een CRASH op Wall Street ook met de dag groter wordt.

Kortom samengevat, dat het niet in de krant staat tot daar aan toe maar ik verzeker u ervan dat die CRASH in Saudi Arabië meer gevolgen zal brengen dan men tot nog toe denkt. Het is een rijk land met zeer veel overschot op de balans, ook verdienen ze als nooit tevoren aan de olie nu deze al een zeer lange tijd boven de 60 dollar staat en nu zelfs boven de 70 dollar per vat. Er wordt nu veel verloren op de beurs maar blijkbaar stapt men niet in de dollarbeleggingen. Wel stapt men blijkbaar massaal in het Goud...

Kijk ook op de onderstaande chart maar eens goed naar de volumes, die nemen de afgelopen weken fors toe zodat er paniek verkopen aan de gang zijn.

Een verwittigt man is er 2 waard zegt een spreuk, doe er uw voordeel mee......

83.96.133.160/modules.php?name=News&f...

[verwijderd] 21 september 2006 21:58

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Relax! We're Still in a Gold Bull Market

By Greg Silberman

September 21, 2006
blog.goldandoilstocks.com

This may very well be the last shake out before the next multi-year Bull run begins…

Are the stars aligning for Deflation?
Monday September 11th 2006 was not a good day for Gold, Gold Stocks, Oil or Industrial Commodities.

Chart 1 – Gold Stocks (top) ; Gold; Industrial Metals ($gyx); Oil ($wtic)
Last week the stock market moved up with much fanfare and noise, but just like housing stocks, the stock market has taken weeks and only managed to challenge its Summer highs.

Chart 2 - Housing Stock Centex has taken weeks to challenge its Summer high; so has the S&P (black)
Bonds have continued strong and the Dollar has surprised everyone by rallying.

Chart 3 - US Dollar broken above right-angle triangle; Bonds (below) continue trending higher

What gives?

The market is pricing a global slowdown and people are running to the Dollar to pay down debts.

Oil and Industrial Metals fall on lower expected demand especially from manufacturing Giants such as China and India. Gold falls because of lower price inflation expectations.

Commodities led the market higher. I’m wondering if they’ll ultimately lead the market lower?

To service debt the economy needs to generate income and profits. In a slowdown, profits are hit hard and so is the ability to service debts.

With a housing debt burden in excess of $2 Trillion, the economy will not survive a slowdown for long before debt IMPLODES.
The Fed obviously knows this and will attempt to stimulate the economy by repeating what they did to halt the 2000 – 2002 Bear Market. Slash interest rates.

Will cutting interest rates arrest a Bear market this time?

In my opinion – No.

Here’s why:

By 2000 the public had been whipped into an Internet speculative frenzy. They then got caught in the headlights of a Nasdaq crash. Individual balance sheets were hit but the speculative mood wasn’t dampened, it was transferred to Real Estate through the Fed slashing interest rates.

In other words, from 2003 to 2006 the public was still in a playful mood.

“Yeah sure, my portfolio is down, but housing prices are strong and getting stronger. I’ll hop on board that train and make up for my Stock Market loses.”

The Real Estate market became the only game in town.

Fast forward to 2006:

The public is even more weighed down in debt now than they were in 2000. The speculative frenzy may also be softening as Real Estate cools (and Nasdaq stock market losses were never recovered).

Rydex cash flow ratios suggest the public continues to remain Bearish even whilst the stock market moves higher [Rydex Ratio Implies Prices Will Go Higher].

People are now worried about the price of Gas and the War on Terror (which was non-existent in 2000). The psychological pendulum has swung from over-exuberance to cautiousness and is on its way to despair.

What would the object of speculation be if the Fed slashed interest rates? What asset class could even remotely be big enough to substitute for Housing?

The answer, for a battle-wearied public, is possibly none.

No asset class is big enough to absorb the necessary funds to make up for the Real Estate bubble.

Hold on! There is one exception.

Defence.

But defence is the domain of governments. In order for defence spending to provide income to the public (to pay their debts) a HUGE mobilisation effort would have to take place. We would have to face a really SERIOUS enemy for that to happen – War on Terror???

Chart 4 – Weekly Defense Index continues to look very strong

Psychology

Assuming Housing is now Kaput, does the public have the stomach to continue speculating?

And if they do, where would they speculate?

Is there a chance they may get serious and begin SAVING (gulp)?

These are the million $ questions and ofcourse nobody knows for certain. I am however a believer in cycles. I believe in the Kondratieff Cycle and I believe we are now approaching the Coldest Part of the K-Winter.

The FED must start reducing interest rates (soon) in an effort to stimulate the economy. There is a delay between the time the Fed begins reducing interest rates and lower interest rates impact the economy. When confidence gets hit, I doubt whether deflation will be offset quick enough by falling rates.

The asset class that would benefit most from slashing interest rates would be Gold. Gold will turn around swiftly as it senses a large monetary reflation is underway. We are not there yet, but this important fact ensures that the current drop in Gold and Gold Stocks will not take out the June lows and will probably be the last major correction before a multi-year Gold Bull market gets underway.

Hold tight until psychology swings back in favor of Gold.

More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribers…

---

Greg Silberman CA(SA), CFA
greg@goldandoilstocks.com

[verwijderd] 22 september 2006 11:06

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Buy gold to hold, not to trade!
Dr. Marc Faber this week told Bloomberg he is a buyer of gold at and below $580 an ounce. But traders in gold have recently suffered a mauling because central banks are manipulating the market. The Federal Reserve wants to contain inflation to engineer an interest rate cut before the November US elections.
United Arab Emirates: Thursday, September 21 - 2006

It is as plain as the nose on your face that gold market interventions of the past couple of weeks have been organized to bleed gold traders dry.

One thing that gold traders could do to help themselves is to stop publishing their latest market 'insight' on websites. The demons of the gold cartel are clearly reading everything that they write and making absolutely sure that it goes wrong!

Indeed, a section of the gold bug community has identified the existence of a cartel or cartel-like organization within the central banking system that conspires to keep gold prices down, when economic forces would suggest they should go up. This is one way of trying to control inflation, albeit it not a very good one as curing the symptoms never cures a sickness.

The gold cartel
However, there is no point in trying to fight such a powerful cartel. It is a futile exercise, and traders will be quickly wiped out if they insist on trying. Those who do this on margin are doubly foolish, as the irrepressible volatility of precious metals is going to catch them out sooner or later.

For in order to succeed in this kind of market you need to recognize the reality of a fixed gold market and buy and hold until this whole artificial construction comes tumbling down. Then gold and silver prices will soar and the holders will make a huge profit.

So buy a little gold for your portfolio, or quite a lot if you have the cash available. For gold will protect your finances against inflation, deflation, devaluation, stock market crashes and almost any other negative economic scenario.

When it rains, it pours
It always pays to be ready for a rainy day. Are we not now hearing many siren voices warning of a US housing downturn and a coming US recession, which will surely be accompanied by further devaluation of an already weak US dollar and a downturn in US financial markets?

What is the safe haven asset that will perform in such a noxious investment environment? Precious metals are pretty much immune from everything, except the central banks in the short term. So take Dr. Marc Faber's advice and do what he is doing himself and buy gold at these price levels while you can!

Lest we forget AME Info columnist and celebrated contrarian Dr. Marc Faber wrote the book, 'Tomorrow's Gold' predicting this scenario four years ago and has been consistently right on gold since then.
© 1996-2006 by AME Info FZ LLC / Emap Communications. All rights reserved.
This story was posted by Peter J. Cooper, Editor-in-Chief
Thursday, September 21 - 2006 at 09:33 UAE local time (GMT+4)

Print Date: Friday, September 22 - 2006 - 12:54:49 GMT+4

Find this article at:
www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/96992.html

[verwijderd] 25 september 2006 21:29

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Jewelry, the economy and gold

An article in Mineweb earlier this month said that the International Diamond Exchange (IDEX) reported diamond prices are softening. I have not seen any hard data for a long time, but I do recall seeing a study about ten years ago that indicated a very high correlation between higher-end diamond prices and stock market indices. Diamonds are the ultimate luxury item and during times of prosperity (usually when stock prices are rising), demand for diamonds is strong. Conversely, when times are tough, less people buy expensive diamonds.

According to IDEX, the prices of 1.5 and 2 carat diamonds fell below their prices of a year ago for the first time in recent history. In my way of thinking that is probably because the bull market in stocks, bonds and real estate that started in 1982 might finally be coming to an end. IDEX apparently found that US jewelers are concerned that softening jewelry demand is a leading indicator for US economic growth.

I would not hang my hat on diamond prices as a leading economic indicator but in conjunction with everything else that's going on I would look at it as confirmation that US economic woes are deepening.

Last week I reported on the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's comments that weakness in the housing market poses a risk to the US economy. This week the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its business conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region, fell into negative territory for the first time since 2003. A negative reading implies economic contraction and thus the index is not merely indicating a slowdown in economic growth, but an actual contraction of economic activity.

The Conference Board, a nonprofit business research group, issued a separate report of composite leading economic indicators that also signaled weakness ahead. Their index of leading indicators has declined for five out of the eight most recent months. The biggest contributors to the decline were waning consumer expectations and declining building permits.

During the past month, short selling on the New York Stock Exchange hit a new record -- a clear indication that there is a strong belief out there that the current rally in stocks is not going to last.

Not surprisingly the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave US interest rates unchanged this week for the second month in a row. In the accompanying statement the Fed said: " The moderation in economic growth appears to be continuing, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market." The Fed continues to talk about the threat of inflation but weakness in the economy is, thus far, prohibiting them from raising interest rates.

The dollar softened up this week due to all this talk about negative economic conditions and that gave a boost to both gold and base metals prices. As the US economy weakens the demand for base metals will eventually drop off. China, India, Russia, Brazil, and the rest of the developing and developed world will not be able to replace falling US demand for goods and services. A lot of hope is pinned on China, but to believe that Chinese demand for base metals and other raw materials is going to offset falling US demand is ludicrous (see "Will China really save the world?" www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.p...

Unlike base metals, Gold is purely a monetary asset. So while falling economic activity will have a negative impact on base metals demand and, consequently, base metals prices, the same is not true for gold. Falling economic activity has no impact on the gold price. Because gold is a monetary asset the gold price is determined predominantly by the inflation rates of fiat paper money and currency exchange rates. Therefore, a slowdown in US economic growth coupled with a declining US dollar exchange will have a positive impact on the gold price even if base metals prices fall.

A large amount of capital was invested in metals during the past year as investors looking for a hedge against the US dollar bought all sorts of "hard assets", including base metals, precious metals and gold. Those investors did not differentiate between base metals, which are commodities, and gold, which is money. So while declining economic activity should not have a negative impact on the gold price, falling base metals prices might cause those same investors, who indiscriminately bought gold and base metals, to sell those assets, including gold. This could cause the gold price to fall in sympathy with base metals in the short term; however, any such decline in the gold price should be viewed as an opportunity. At some point the gold price will decouple from base metals and rise due to rising fiat currency inflation and a falling US dollar exchange rate.

My own target for the gold price remains somewhere between $900 and $1,300 an ounce so with gold now under $600 an ounce I am once again a buyer. I don't buy physical gold; instead I invest in mineral exploration companies. I sold aggressively during May and have been waiting for good buying opportunities to arise. Now I am starting to see some attractive stock prices once again. If you are interested in what I buy and sell with my own money you could subscribe to my paid weekly newsletter, in which I discuss the stocks I buy and sell. For more information please visit www.paulvaneeden.com/publications.php.

ROB TV
John Embry, who is the chief investment strategist for Sprott Asset Management, and I, were on a Report on Business Television show last week where we discussed the gold market and took questions. It was a fun show and you can watch it at
www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv?d..., scroll down to 12:30PM.

Paul van Eeden

Conferences:
My next speaking engagement is in New York on October 19th, at a dinner organized by the Committee for Monetary Research and Education. If you are interested in attending, please contact Elizabeth Currier at cmre@bellsouth.net.

[verwijderd] 26 september 2006 10:18

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold Gains on Speculation Central Banks Will Slow Metal Sales

By Feiwen Rong and Jae Hur

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in Asia on speculation European central banks will slow sales from their vaults after selling less of the precious metal than allowed under an accord.

The banks can sell a maximum of 500 tons in the year ended today under the accord. As of Sept. 19 they had sold only 380 tons, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council in London. A total of 2,500 tons of gold can be sold from 2004 to 2009 under the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

``The fact that they haven't used up all that 500 tons of sales quota sent a signal to the market that these central banks might have changed attitudes toward gold,'' Bruce Ikemizu, head of precious metals trading at Mitsui & Co., said from Tokyo. ``It's a bullish signal.''

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $2.90, or 0.5 percent, to $593.70 an ounce and traded at $593.48 at 11:42 a.m. Singapore time.

[verwijderd] 5 oktober 2006 09:12

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/oct032006.html

Gold Stocks Enter the Buy Zone

By Mike Swanson
October 3, 2006 wallstreetwindow.com

Yesterday the XAU and HUI both closed up fractionally while gold fell 3 1/2 dollars and is now trading down 4 points in pre-market action. The action strongly suggests that gold stocks bottomed Monday of last week, because the action in the gold stocks tends to lead the action in the metal. It is bullish when the stocks outperform the metal as they did yesterday and bearish when they lag while the metal rises. The XAU/gld and HUI/gld relative strength ratios have been firming up all week.

For the past several days I've had a hunch that gold stocks bottomed last Monday, but have not acted on it, because I needed confirmation like we are seeing now. Short-term though it does appear that further weakness in the stocks and metal are likely. Gold is breaking a short-term support level today and the XAU and HUI are about to break short-term support uptrend lines on their 60 minute charts. This suggests a short-term pullback for 1-3 days should occur. This shouldn't shock you, because gold needs to digest its recent move before it can decisively rally above $600 an ounce.

I believe the action we are seeing now is very similar to the action we saw on the June bottom in gold stocks. After making a bottom back then the stocks perked up and then pulled back for a few days before going higher. During this pullback gold acted weaker than the stocks. The same thing should happen now. I bought in June and then sold almost my entire position when gold stocks broke down at the beginning of September, therefore escaping most of this correction.

Once the XAU bottoms here we should see it rally back up to the 150 area by the end of the year - and if 150 breaks it will be off to the races. That's why I'm excited about this entry point and am watching the action very carefully. I expect to be buying within the next 72 hours, and maybe even today.

[verwijderd] 5 oktober 2006 13:15

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold Council to Offer Bullion-Backed Shares in Asia (Update5)

By Chia-Peck Wong

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The World Gold Council, a producer group supported by the biggest miners of the precious metal, will sell securities backed by the bullion in Singapore from Oct. 11, the first such offering in Asia.

The securities, known as an exchange-traded fund, are similar to those traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and will also be called StreetTracks Gold shares, the London-based council said today. Each share on the Singapore Exchange will represent one-tenth of an ounce of gold, and enables a holder to trade the commodity without taking physical delivery of it.

The number of exchange-traded funds has grown dramatically since they were created in 1993, gaining in popularity as they broadened investors' access to different types of asset, including commodities. Commodity prices have surged this year on rising demand from developing countries, including China, and increased interest from institutional and individual investors.

The launch ``will increase demand for gold, and it will bolster gold prices,'' said Ellison Chu, manager for the bullion desk at Standard Bank Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``It's more convenient and easier for individual investors'' to trade shares in such a fund than to own the metal.

The World Gold Council's members include Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., Johannesburg-based Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. and Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., the world's three leading gold miners.

`Gold Affinity'

``There is a long history in terms of gold affinity in the Far East,'' said James Burton, the council's chief executive officer. The shares would appeal to investors who wanted to have gold in their portfolio, but didn't own it, he said.

The Singapore fund will be marketed by State Street Global Advisors, a unit of State Street Corp., the world's biggest provider of investment services to institutions. It'll have about $30 million already invested when launched, James Ross, senior managing director of State Street Global Advisors, said.

The size of the assets linked to the nine other gold exchange-traded funds in the world, six of which are owned by the council, is about $11 billion, Burton said in an interview.

``We didn't think that we'd have $9.5 billion in three years,'' he said, referring to the council's funds, while declining to forecast future growth rates. The council launched its first gold exchange-traded fund in Sydney in April 2003.

After next week's launch, these securities may also be launched in other Asian countries, including China, he said.

``There will be a time when we go to China,'' he said. ``We need to keep contact with the market there, and then decide when the time is right.''

New Listings

Gold-backed funds ``are very important developments in the gold mining industry and for gold prices,'' Greg Wilkins, Barrick's chief executive officer, said after a speech in Melbourne today. ``It has restored gold's legitimacy as a financial investment.''

Still, the Singapore launch comes as gold prices have been falling in tandem with a slump in the cost of crude oil. The precious metal is favored by some investors as a hedge against inflation, and its price can track movements in energy costs.

Spot gold reached a 26-year high of $730.40 an ounce on May 12 amid a surge in commodity prices, including crude oil, and a rise in geopolitical tensions over Iran and North Korea. Since then it's dropped 23 percent, and traded at $567.10 at 3:42 p.m. Singapore time today.

Crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $59.94 a barrel at 3:44 p.m. Singapore time today. That's close to the lowest in seven months, and 24 percent below the record $78.40 a barrel touched on July 14.

Gold Rebound

The approach of the wedding season in India and Christmas will spur consumers to buy gold jewelry as gifts, Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS Ltd, told reporters in Singapore today.

``By December, gold's probably going to be back above $600,'' he said. London-based GFMS is a precious metals research firm that compiles supply-and-demand data for council.

The U.S. StreetTracks Gold Trust, which made its debut in November 2004, had a market capitalization of $7.05 billion yesterday compared with the global gold market of about $44 billion, based on last year's production and average price. Its shares have tracked the gold price, closing at $56.37 yesterday, 22 percent lower that their peak of $72.26 touched on May 12.

Singapore Exchange listed its first exchange-traded fund in June, the iShares MSCI India fund, which tracks Indian equities. The product was set up by Barclays Global Investors, the world's leading manager of exchange-traded funds, and a unit of Barclays Plc, the third-largest U.K. bank by market value.

[verwijderd] 5 oktober 2006 23:56

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

The Upcoming Mega - Storm

By Jim Willie CB Printer Friendly Version

October 5, 2006

www.GoldenJackass.com

For specific detailed analysis of the Gold, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and Fed monetary policy, see instructions for subscription to my newsletter research reports, which include stock recommendations positioned to rise in the commodity bull market. Articles in this series are promotional.

This article is taken from a September Special Report for subscribers to the Hat Trick Letter, a piece of the same name. Several paragraphs are deleted which appear for paid subscribers, while others are shortened to manage the length. The outlined content is the same though, so as to capture the meaning in a longer treatment than a mere synopsis or abstract. It might be important to step back from the silly news on DJIA hitting 11,800 mark, or European race cars which attain 60 mph in 3 seconds, or hurricanes missing in action, or what opulence $5 million buys in a luxury home, or the failed deal with continental weakling GM & Nissan & Renault, or the back-dated executive stock option scandals (even to a dead person), or the US Congressional cover-up sex scandal, or the sentencing of Fastow in the Enron scandal, or the engineered energy market decline for election purposes without publicity or scandal. We have systemic breakdown under our noses, but the arrogant proboscis tilt renders recognition impossible. Housing is the lynchpin to the USEconomic risk of breakdown, and in my viewpoint, a bear market of historic proportions has begun in housing, noted by staggering momentum from numerous factors. Even USFed Chairman Bernanke admits a 1% drag on US GDP from a housing slowdown. Try triple that, at least!

The debate over whether inflation or deflation will prevail exposes the prevalent ignorance for the true problem, even among enlightened analysts, even within the gold community. We have had both inflation and deflation for several years. We will continue to have both inflation and deflation, as neither will overcome the other. In fact, both inflation and deflation will intensify, with each gathering more strength, but with some interchanged parts. The natural response within a system is for liquidation to be forced upon abusers and their flawed devices. The human response within that same system is to attempt monetary inflation. The central problem for the United States is that we generate lower finished product prices, lower wages, and higher costs, along with asset bubbles certain to eventually burst. Amazingly, the US generates more price deflation from monetary inflation, except with cost structures. Such is the nature of a financial hurricane, picking up assets and tossing them around. Financial assets and commodity prices inside the United States have increased, while at the same time wages and imported product prices have decreased as a direct effect of Chinese and Indian participation. Next, housing prices will decline, another certain deflationary impact. If a house can be picked up and tossed like a child’s toy in a hurricane, then why not see it thrown onto the deflationary ledger column in a financial hurricane? A first year 5% housing decline would equate to at least $1 trillion in lost home equity, with a definite and guaranteed impact on a deflationary force. Some call it debt and asset deflation. The problem is that, using distorted economic statistics, the US Federal Reserve has chosen not to amplify its monetary rescue inflation, a gigantic money pump prime operation. It is not yet engaged, but it will be soon, but probably too late. My diatribe has consistently called them hacks, a much deserved label.

FLAT TREASURY YIELD CURVE

The Treasury Yield Curve reflects this trend of cost inflation, smothered wages, and a weak USDollar which can only worsen the rising cost situation. The falling long-term 10-year TNote yield (TNX) reflects failure in the USFed Reflation initiative. The presence of China has rendered pricing power as non-existent for both finished products and wages. Thus no “cost push” is possible, as in previous business cycles, or rather credit cycles. The Treasury Yield Curve reflects both the failed attempt to generate systemic inflation (shared by wages) and the capital liquidation in progress on a widespread basis. The most unreported aspect of the price inflation effect inflicted upon the USEconomy is that it appears on the COST SIDE almost exclusively. This suppresses activity, thus a continuing downtrend in long-term interest rates, which befuddles the gold community. Economic growth is weakening, and if you remove the distortion, is clearly in recession in my view. Many questions are answered if the phony 5% lift to GDP growth is removed, just like a 5% lift to the CPI is imposed. That is, if one chooses to live in the world of reality! The falling TNX, now under 4.6% amazingly, also reflects the monster cost inflation climate, absent wage gains.

A tough argument to make is any claimed success to the USFed Reflation initiative. We are not on a smooth course of USEconomic recovery, not if asset dependent (housing). We are not in a situation where the higher cost structure can be afforded, either by corporations from pricing power, nor by households from higher wages. If the USFed Reflation were successful, as in past cycles, the USTreasury Bond market would have recognized the rising price structure. It has not yet. The original objective was to “inflate debts away” but the opposite has occurred. Debts have gone ballistic. Now even more inflation is required in order to wash debts away? Such policy works into the hands of Weimar Policy, marred and marked by uncontrollable inflation. If that occurs, a more likely outcome is a step toward more USEconomic liquidation and threat of collapse.

A very important truism was learned by me from the venerable Kurt Richebächer during a 2003 visit in France. He said several times that the bond market eventually takes its cue and follows the dynamics within the real economy, not the asset markets puffed by bubbles. The most important industrial segment is car manufacturing and the transportation sector generally. Ours is dying except for trucks on interstate highways, hardly a testimony of efficiency or planning. The asset bubbles are fleeting, temporary, and aberrant. When they retreat, chaos results.

[verwijderd] 5 oktober 2006 23:57

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

DISRUPTED BUSINESS CYCLE

The typical Business Cycle is more appropriately named the Credit cycle. Past patterns are not occurring like in past pretexts. Credit would be yanked hard to cause a recession by means of hiked interest rates, a time when the Ruling Elite would shift capital from stocks to bonds, then later to utilities, likely with tipoffs in policy shift. Later, after debt was reduced (e.g. via bankruptcies, writedowns, layoffs, plant closures) and cleansed to a sufficient degree, pent-up demand gathered as in a wondrous wellspring. A “call to arms” by the USFed official cut in interest rates, and the next game was on! Demand rose, the economic stirred, the system awakened once again, fresh demand was tapped. This time, however, the system is grinding its credit gears with exhausted demand. This time, monetary inflation has been exported to Asia, only to return dressed up pretty as cheaper products. We have been importing deflation for years, especially since China was invited to join the global trading village in 1999. We have been indirectly monetizing the bond market after our debts pass through the Asian trade surplus tunnel and through the Persian Gulf petro revenue tunnel. Wage increases are welcome news, too little too late though. They might be joined by installed price hikes in Chinese imports to the United States soon. China remains in control of price levers.

My biggest outward concern is that the USTreasury Bond rally will grow out of control. The nitwits in the USGovt actually enjoy lower long-term rates, for refunding recycling purposes of colossal debt. It reduces borrowing costs. The USTBond reinforces the USDollar support. At some point soon, the bond rally might come to an end. Its brick wall might be determined more than we know by the “BRIC” nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The great expressed concern among macro-economists is the likely pullback in foreign investment in the United States if the housing market drags down the economy like a two-ton millstone.

CHINA INTERRUPTS REFLATION

China (mostly manufacturing) and India (most services) have emerged as economic embryonic powerhouses, the main effect of which is an “iron ceiling” on prices, both of products and wages. The Iraqi and Afghan Wars succeeded in jump starting the recovery in the USEconomy, but it has backfired both militarily and economically. Violence in Moslem lands is horribly under-reported in the United States, where the press & media are mere public relations appendages to the USGovt in power. See the covers of Newsweek on the four continents, as the US offers “puff pieces” while the rest of the world is warned of “Jihadistan” in lawless Afghan lands where warlords are trying to take back the heroin trade.

China was invited to the global table in 1999, a maneuver which has rendered USFed policy as more manager of the liquor supply, carnival barker to the stock & bond markets, maestro to the musical distraction, tinkerer to the press, and controller of water flow to the leaking swimming pool. China has quietly become a major credit master which has lately warned of no more additions to their FOREX horde. Expect infrastructure investments to buttress energy deals and foreign aid to rise. Can anyone dispute how debt makes a person (or nation) slave to its master? Case in point is how the US Congress backed off on trade tariffs against China. What happened? Did Beijing threaten to sell a few $10 billion tranches of USTBonds each week until the US imperialist dogs stood down with a whimper??? What private deal did Treasury Secy Paulson win? Will we ever know? Is the payoff to Goldman Sachs?

The first phase of the mega-storm saw prices rise for everything needed in our domestic supply chain. The bull market in commodities is broad, all these items being in hot demand in Asia. That bull will surely return and be resuscitated once the November elections conclude in the United States, like clockwork. In contrast, the Asian trade routes have brought to US shores cheaper finished products over a broad range, involving home electronics, housewares, appliances, and furniture, even as US-based factories were shuttered. Is that progress? The depreciated USDollar value spawned a supply cost increase with a correspond finished product price ceiling. Businesses have been squeezed unmercifully in the cost explosion. They have reacted by replacing workers with equipment, a surefire productivity enhancement, but also by outsourcing to Asia, a trusty low-cost solution. The tragedy lies in how the solutions impoverish the nation. Hence, US domestic wages did not increase, as they have in all past cycles. The next phase of the mega-storm will be more dangerous and treacherous.

SILENT MONETARY EXPLOSION

Central banks worldwide have grown the money supply in reckless fashion in the last year. The pace ranges from a seemingly modest 8.5% in European Union, a modest 7.5% in Australia, and roughly 9% in the United States. Check this! Money supply growth is up to 18.4% in China, 19.1% in India, and a whopping 23.2% in South Africa. While not “Weimar-like” numbers, for the modern era, these are staggering numbers. The next phase will be marred by the futility of more rapid money supply growth to kickstart economies, in conjunction with flat economic growth outside Asia. The more rapid money growth will render US energy costs as painfully high again, since the USDollar’s crippled status will be recognized, acknowledged, debated, and confirmed. Without fanfare, Russia has increased its money supply by almost 45%, not so much inflationary as capitalization of energy deposits.

INFLATE AMIDST LIQUIDATION

The mega-storm will develop and grow more destructive in the next phase. The contrast of greater high pressure against greater low pressure will add to the storm differential. Its power will increase, just like a hurricane. Higher pressure will come from human monetary inflation, otherwise known as liquidity infusions, credit growth, and further leveraged speculation, ongoing carry trade activity, as officials will fight the good fight, urged on by bankers, politicians, corporate chieftains, and influential individuals. Lower pressure will come from the shrinking value of the housing sector, from the diminished credit lines off flat home equity, and from eventual cutbacks in household spending. The reckless drain of home equity is soon to end. The mega-storm will worsen as the USFed next executes its response to the worsening real estate crisis. They will be slow on the uptake, however. New stimulation will eventually accomplish the same effect as the last few years, more cost stress. The stock market loves the new liquidity guarantees and steady influx of easy money, at least initially. The true havoc will come when the mortgage backed securities (MBS) writedowns occur. Their trading is not in the forefront of financial media screens, but rather in the banking world background, in the banking balance sheets and portfolio management.

Europeans describe the American practice of spending home equity as “burning their furniture to heat their homes” whereas mine is more “actively dissolving their home foundations while continuing to live in them.” A new class of poverty is soon to arrive on the scene: the bankrupt homeowner. Reports of negative home equity are rampant and growing, without the mindful alarm.

[verwijderd] 5 oktober 2006 23:58

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

The Upcoming Mega - Storm (Part II)
Part I: zie vorige pagina

A more pertinent, fitting, and applicable description is one offered by Antal Fekete. Without reference, only to cite his thoughtful assessment, his depiction is more frightening at the same time. He claims the United States lies in the midst of a grand liquidation of capital. My assessed explanation claims it is in direct response to the brutal effects of globalization. This liquidation is being utilized to pay for the rising costs, to finance our pathetic profligate lifestyle, to fund our reckless rampant consumption. Legitimate income has vanished from a gigantic central backbone in the US manufacturing sector long ago dispatched to Asia, where labor has an absolute advantage and will continue to have that upper hand forever. Foreign nations somehow feel motivated or obliged or compelled or coerced to support the USEconomy and its capital needs.

What will stop this trend? TRADE WAR, then wider MILITARY WAR, and growing geopolitical conflict, not just baseline strain. Trade quotas, motivated by protection from the damaging onslaught, will soon be sold to the US public, if not this November 2006 election season, then undoubtedly in Nov 2008 during presidential elections. The destructive message sells well to the public full of angst, as it repeats the songs sung before the Great Depression over 70 years ago. Politicians will choose to paint China as evil, rather than to make difficult choices.

CONSUMER BURNOUT AND/OR FOREIGN ABANDONMENT

The natural course is for huge imbalances to be resolved, for big gaps to narrow, for overdue dependence to be relieved, for deficits to be reduced. The primary reason why we move to the next phase in the mega-storm crisis is that all imbalances are worsening over time. We are moving in the wrong direction, and have been doing so ever since Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” but then fed the debt and speculative addiction.

We will not have the good fortune of a rosy scenario, wherein the housing market has a Soft Landing, the USDollar finds an equilibrium peacefully, and the stock markets avoid the next bear market. These are fairy tales, chapters in silly economic mythology which sells well despite its constantly disproven validity. Not only are the financial imbalances and capital dependence at historically unprecedented levels, AND WORSENING, but the geopolitical climate grows more agitated and hostile with each passing month.

The risk of the US consumer suffering a bigtime noteworthy exhaustion is acute, greater than (for a while) the risk of foreign USTBond flight from the US and abandoning us. The ultimate risk is for the consumer to burn out AND THEN to see foreigners pull the plug and deliver a punishing blow to the USEconomy. Again, housing is the lynchpin to the pulled plug. In recent past history, the victim of foreign flight has been debt-ridden nations like Argentina and Thailand. Well, guess what? The United States looks every bit as crippled and hardly creditworthy. The USDollar might be supported by our military more than we realize. The United States has a gigantic unresolvable debt abroad and an unmanageable compromised budget process domestically. If not for a strong overwhelming military, and formidable financial weapons, an oversized consumer market, and multi-national corporate outreach, would our increasingly alienated partners continue to hand off over $2 billion in savings each and every day? Methinks NOT. They will respond to our housing bear market by gradual abandonment.

We are such silly creatures to expect foreigners will to turn slapped cheeks, to take insults on the geopolitical stage, to succumb to our heavy handed directives, to accept incredibly deadly banking coercion, to blink when viewing naval destroyers and warplanes. We expect them to continue to trade their finished products for our corrosive IOU’s, and to endorse our asset-based economy. Our power plant is inflation. Theirs is work.

[verwijderd] 17 oktober 2006 10:31

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold and silver to outperform US bonds and equities!
Despite its correction from $730 to the current level, gold is still up 12% year-to-date compared with a gain of 7% for the S&P 500. I continue to believe that over the next few years gold and silver will significantly outperform US financial assets.
Monday, October 16 - 2006

Over the last three months, both the US bond and stock markets have rallied strongly. The bond market rally is driven by investors' expectations of a weaker economy and interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve Board later in the year or in early 2007.

As a result, investors have pushed the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds down from 5.20% in June to currently a tad over 4.70%. At the same time, investors have driven up the US stock market to a more than five year-high. Investors clearly expect continuous corporate profit growth and declining inflation rates.

I have to say that an investor buying 30-Year US Treasury bonds as a long term investment (say, for holding his position to maturity) must have a lot of faith that, for the next thirty years, the US rate of inflation will never exceed more than 3%. This is an assumption which, given the history of the Fed and its money printing bias, is most unlikely to materialize.

Sell US equities and bonds
In fact, I am leaning increasingly towards the view that both buyers of bonds and equities could get it badly wrong. The bond buyers because inflation will continue to increase despite a weaker economy and the stock buyers because corporate profits will begin to disappoint!

Therefore, given the over-bought condition of both the US stock and bond markets and a rather poor technical picture (the new high list is not expanding sufficiently), I would certainly not rule out a more meaningful downside correction starting soon, or even a nice little crash. In addition, the US dollar has begun to weaken significantly against the Chinese RMB, which could add to inflationary pressures.

So I am far less optimistic after the recent strong US stock and bond market performance than the complacent buyers of bonds and stocks. There are many factors affecting US financial assets that could in future have a negative impact on their pricing.

Crash coming?
And, while I am not ruling out some further strength over the next few months, we also need to recognize that both equities and bonds are very overbought right now. Therefore, I would either postpone any new buying or implement some selling. A better buying opportunity is likely to present itself at the end of October or in November.

Since emerging markets have a close correlation with commodity prices, and since the correction of industrial commodity prices, which began in May, is likely to last longer, we would also postpone any buying in emerging markets.

In fact, for the intermediate term US equities could out-perform emerging markets. Also, Asian stock markets are likely to out-perform the markets of Russia and Latin America.
© 1996-2006 by AME Info FZ LLC / Emap Communications. All rights reserved.
This story was posted by Dr Marc Faber
Monday, October 16 - 2006 at 07:53 UAE local time (GMT+4)

[verwijderd] 19 oktober 2006 13:28

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Paul Walker: CEO, GFMS By: Geoff Candy
Posted: '19-OCT-06 07:59' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006

MINEWEB: And it’s a great pleasure to have Paul Walker from GFMS with us on the line. Paul, your organisation has been quoted as saying that we could see $700/oz gold before the end of the year. Do you think this is still likely, given how much time it has spent under 600 in recent weeks?

PAUL WALKER: Thanks for having me on the show. Regarding our forecast, I think we still stand by that. I mean if it’s not at the end of December 2006, maybe it will be in the first month of 2007. But it’s certainly, in our view, something that’s on the cards. And if you have a look at what’s happened to the market over the last month or so, where there’s been this consolidation below $600, the floor for the price is very, very clearly there. You have seen the Indian market coming back in, Turkey has been very strong – we’ll be putting out some data on this later in the month – and across the board in these price-sensitive markets you are seeing good buying at these price levels. And that’s why we haven’t seen it go any further below that and we still believe that the basic principles why we believe the gold price is going to go up in the first place are still in play – the issue of the US economy, the housing bubble is quite clearly deflating there, some worry about inflationary pressures, and there’s the very realistic chance that geopolitical issues will play into this mix over the next couple of months. So $700 is certainly on the cards. Don’t hold me to it if we’re only reach $680 or $690, but the direction in our view is a very clear one.

MINEWEB: Where would you see it going over the next two years, then, or is that too far to …?

PAUL WALKER: No, I think over the next two years we, both Philip Klapwijk, our chairman, and myself, we’ve been on the record saying that the nominal highs that we saw back 20-odd years ago, almost 30 years ago are, in our view, potentially on the cards. And as is always the case of calling the gold price, or any price for that matter, you are working on the balance of probabilities. And I would be the first one to say that a year and a half ago, two years ago, if you had asked me the question, “Is the price going up from where we are at the moment and what are the drivers going to be?”, I would have said, “90% on the upside” and outlined similar reasons to ones they have on this show over the last year or so. If you ask me the same question today, undoubtedly the balance of probabilities, you know – is there going to be a benign potential unravelling of the problems in the US economy? – and one has to countenance that that’s a possibility, and that obviously influences the distribution of likely outcomes. But on the balance of probabilities we still believe that gold has still got some significant upside potential.

MINEWEB: David?

DAVID CARTE: Paul, would you say that even if the oil price softens further?

PAUL WALKER: I think on a short-term trading base. I mean, it’s an interesting question about oil, that everybody is now looking at oil as a kind of key indicator in the direction of gold, much in the same way that people were looking at the dollar/euro exchange rate a year and a half ago. And these correlations are moving targets. They wax and wane, and to me that suggests it’s not that they don’t have an influence, but that they’re not the only game in town. I think on a short-term trading basis, if you were to tell me that oil was going to drop $10 tomorrow, I’d be short in gold. But I don’t think this is going to be the factor that drives the medium-term gold price. I think what’s going to underpin that is going to be the broader macroeconomic backdrop in the US, the inflationary environment, the fact that the dollar is almost certainly going to have to weaken significantly to bring about some adjustment in the US economy. Oil, though, is definitely going to be something that’s going to drive the price in the short term, simply because everybody is looking at it.

DAVID CARTE: Paul, I was wondering about global production and global demand, are they plus/minus in balance?

PAUL WALKER: Now that is probably the most important thing in terms of whether, if you like, the longer-term gold price is going to go. On a net basis, in other words if you look at new mine production, and you compare that to fabrication net of scrap, you really have an interesting situation that’s evolved over the last six months. New mine production has been higher. In other words, you’ve had to have ready hands and investors to take this into vaults and hold it at the current prices. We still believe those investors are willing to do it, and we believe they are going to be willing to do that for some time in the future, but that is not going to be a universal constant for the next 20 years. It will change. Investment sentiment does change and I think that’s where one can start to see where the, if you like, the balance of probabilities on the price evolution over the next three or four years is more on the downside, or certainly more likely we’re going to see some downside risk once we reach the highs that we’ve been forecasting.

MINEWEB: Paul, one of the often-quoted drivers of demand has been jewellery demand in Asia particularly, but how much of gold production is taken up by jewellery?

PAUL WALKER: Well it depends on what time period you measure this, but say between 70 and 80% – and that’s simply a flow of metal, the measurable flow of metal in this market. So it’s still the overwhelming proportion of it. But this comes down to the heart of the matter, what really drives the gold price? The floor, the basis on which gold can move is, in my mind, unambiguously determined by the willingness of somebody in India to buy it at current prices. The real jam, the potential for the price to spike, is investment driven, and there’s no doubt that investment has been the real factor that has given us the recent highs that we have seen in gold. But jewellery is the bedrock of this market and there is no evidence to suggest that that’s not going to be the case for the foreseeable future.

MINEWEB: Wayne?

WAYNE McCURRIE: Look, I mean, who knows about predicting the future and what’s going to happen to the future, but I have a slightly different view. At the moment gold, as with most commodities, in fact probably all commodities, is driven by investment, It’s not driven because there is a shortfall between supply and the actual users of a commodity. So in other words it is investors [indistinct], so there is more new mine production than what’s being used in jewellery, etc, etc. I don’t think the US dollar is in major trouble, and there are very good reasons why the dollar should be weak, but I think what a lot of people are forgetting it has already halved in value. I mean, over the last three, four years it’s fallen from .80 – if I remember correctly – to 1.30, 1.25-odd against US, so there really has been significant dollar weakness. The US fiscal deficit, in other words the budget deficit, is not actually all that big if you look at the total debt situation in the US. In other words, the current year’s deficit is enormous, but if you’re starting from a fairly low deficit, a fairly low overall debt level, you can actually run high deficits for a long time before it catches up with you. Remember, throughout the whole of the 90s the US

[verwijderd] 19 oktober 2006 13:29

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Remember, throughout the whole of the 90s the US government ran at a surplus – they actually got in more money than they spent. So the overall debt situation is not that radical so I don’t think the dollar has got to collapse because of a fiscal deficit issue or a government borrowing issue. And then the other deficit of course is the trade deficit. The trade deficit is settled in its own currency – in other words the trade deficit is not a dollar value issue. The dollars go to China and then the dollars come straight back because the Chinese currency is linked to the US dollar. So the trade account deficit is not a factor to do with the value of the dollar, because it’s a deficit in its own currency. In other words, you owe people a lot of money in theory, but you owe it in your own currency. So you don’t have to sell your currency to buy another currency to settle your deficit. So in other words it’s not a dollar-value issue. So I think if we are in a commodity down-cycle, and of course the question is “if” – we don’t know – and of course it’s trying to predict the future, I think we’re going to see a weaker dollar price of gold over the two years call it, I don’t know. Got no idea about that.

MINEWEB: Paul Walker is with GFMS.

[verwijderd] 25 oktober 2006 11:34

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold - Close to Break Out!

By Eric Hommelberg
October 23, 2006

Ever since September 14 I’m pointing out a major ‘BUY’ opportunity for gold and its shares would be upon us but still no ‘BUY ‘signal has been triggered. Some readers wonder if I had been too optimistic and are getting impatient since the gold shares are getting nowhere these days. I started notifying our members on this up-coming major ‘buy’ based on the relative gold charts since the relative gold charts nailed every single major bottom since the bull market in gold began in April 2001.

Now the power of the r-gold charts seem to have proven itself again since I projected based on previous r-gold bottoms a maximum down-turn of gold towards the $560 area while gold was still trading at $575 at that time. Now after touching this $560 level twice gold went up by $40 and is challenging the $600 level again.

Although the recent $40 up-move is a welcome one still no ‘BUY’ signal has been triggered since gold still finds itself in a down-trend which started early May this year. The good news however is that we are getting close to a major break-out soon since all it takes is a close above $602.

Now let’s recap what has been said since September 14 and why and see why we’re close to a major break-out soon.

In my piece ‘Gold – It’s a Bull market Stupid’ I explained how the relative charts were indicating an upcoming BUY opportunity but pointed out some patience was still required.

I wrote:

Excerpt Sept 12: Gold – It’s a Bull Market Stupid

Investors should be on high alert from here on since these opportunities are a gift and don’t occur that often (6 times so far in 4 years)

Ok you’ll say, so should I buy shares like crazy now?

No, it ain’t that easy since gold itself still finds itself in a downtrend which started in May this year. So a confirmation of gold breaking out of its down-trend would be a something to watch for.

END.

In my Sept 17 piece ‘Selling Juniors – You must be kidding’ I repeated that still more patience was required since gold still found itself in a down-trend and calculated a worst case scenario of $560 gold based on previous relative gold values at major bottoms.

I wrote:

Excerpt Sept 17: ‘Selling Juniors? – You must be kidding’

Now should we buy gold now?

The answer is no since gold still finds itself in a downtrend and we simply have to wait patiently till it breaks the recent downtrend to the upside..

Q: What is the maximum downside potential from here on?
A: Well, if history could be of any guide then we see that previous correction ended in the 0.95 – 1.00 rGold area. A rGold value of 0.95 translates itself into a gold price of $560 these days..Sure enough this is not a prediction that gold will drop to $560, it’s just a worst case scenario according to the rChart..

END…

Well, although the maximum downside projection was not a prediction but a worst case scenario gold did manage to plunge all the way down to the $560 level indeed..

So did we reach the bottom here at $560 and should we buy like crazy now?

Although the chances are we did have reached the bottom here indeed, I still maintain the view that a major BUY signal will be triggered upon breaching gold’s down-trend which started early May to the upside..

When that will happen?
Now let’s take a peek at the updated gold chart first:

As this chart clearly demonstrates gold is challenging its downtrend (D-line) which started early May this year. This past week the $600 level was being defended heavily and a close above the $602 level will be of extreme importance since it will not only take out its down-trend (D-line) which started early May but also its 50 and 200 dma. Besides that the $600 mark is one of an important psychological level as well since once gold could manage to stay above that level for some time, the end users realize that we have reached a new plateau and adjust their buying points accordingly.

As stated above the max downside projection according the relative gold chart was $560 and this level has been tested twice indeed. Now let’s take a peek at the r-gold chart and see what it says right now:

The r-gold chart is gold divided by its own 200 dma.It has proven to be a reliable indicator in spotting major bottoms in gold for the past 5 years.

The r-gold value has bottomed at 0.95 (it’s lowest value during the entire gold bull since 2001) and clocks right now a value of 1.00 thereby suggesting the bottom is in.

I’m quite excited about the upcoming ‘BUY’ opportunity since it really marks a ‘MAJOR’ buy like we had in April 2003, May 2004 and May 2005. All ingredients are there for a major up-leg in gold and its shares going into 2007.

All critical drivers for gold are still pointing towards much higher gold prices the years ahead and once gold manages to break its current down-trend an objective of $800+ before end of next year is in the cards. Please note that this isn’t just a technical objective, even Citigroup (normally to be found in the bearish gold camp) is targeting new all time highs for gold within the next two years and $700 by year end.
Mineweb reported earlier this month:

Citigroup looks to historic gold price highs

Citigroup Metals Analyst John Hill has predicted gold to test the $700 per ounce mark by year end and achieve historic highs of $850/z in 2007-2008.

END.

Although it goes far beyond the scope of this update to discuss all critical drivers for gold, one important one remains the US$. The good old dollar is loosing credibility fast when statements like these are hitting the news wires more frequently then ever before;

Costello seeks orderly $US withdrawal

John Garnaut Economics Correspondent
October 18, 2006

TREASURER Peter Costello has called on East Asia's central bankers to "telegraph" their intentions to diversify out of American investments and ensure an orderly adjustment.

Central banks in China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have channelled immense foreign reserves into American government bonds, helping to prop up the US dollar and hold down American interest rates.

Mr Costello said "the strategy had changed" and Chinese central bankers were now looking for alternative investments.

-END-

Statements like these are certainly not dollar bullish, so when the dollar goes so does gold but in opposite direction.

On top of that the physical demand for gold is sky-rocketing these days.

This year, gold becomes as good as gold again

Gouri Shah
Thursday, October 19, 2006 01:06 IST

MUMBAI: Gold seems to be back in favour this Dhanteras. Dealers across the city have registered up to a 50 per cent increase in demand for the metal, as compared to the same period last year. A large segment of buyers is choosing gold coins over jewellery, thanks to the ‘buy-back’ guarantee.

“The buying trend is very healthy this year,” said Ashok Jain of the Gold Dealers Association. “There is very good demand for coins and gold bars as investment purchases.”

Some dealers attribute the trend to a rising awareness about the metal as a desirable investment option. Banks such as HDFC and ICICI are offering their customers coins or bars of gold with 99.9 per cent purity in small denominations such as 5gm, 10gm and 50gm. These inducements are complemented by special discounts and schemes to encourage purchases.

Corporations, which had abandoned gold f

[verwijderd] 25 oktober 2006 11:37

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

for electronic items when prices touched a 17-year-high last year, are going back to basics. Dealers have registered huge corporate orders for gold coins ranging from 1gm to 10gm.

“They make a good corporate gift,” said Mukesh Shah, a gold dealer. “We are having a serious problem keeping up with the demand.”

END.

We are having a serious problem keeping up with the demand.

Well, don’t think the demand for physical gold will disappear anytime soon since according to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India Indian gold demand may rise to 981 tons by 2010 and 1,153 tons by 2015 from about 800 now.

Increase in world wide gold demand being offset by a higher gold production?

Forget it! Gold supply is on the wane and flat at best for the next coming years.

Estimated gold reserves have been on a downtrend since 2001 (according to USGS data) and it seems that the days of ever increasing gold reserves may well be over.

Headlines like these do support that view:

Output of gold at 10-year low
STRONG gold prices have not been enough to stop Australia's annual gold production from sliding to a 10-year low.

Output of the precious yellow metal fell by 15 tonnes to 251 tonnes in the year to June 30, according to a production survey published yesterday by Melbourne-based consultancy Surbiton Associates.

END.

SA gold production declining 5% annually
Mineweb Oct 09, 2006

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --South African gold production fell from 430 tonnes in 2000 to 295 tonnes in 2005 as lower grades of ore are mined and reserves are seen to be being depleted, and the country is soon likely to be overtaken as the world’s largest producer of the yellow metal.

Production will see an annual decrease of 5% over the next few years as new projects will not succeed in replacing continued falling production at existing mines, says Alex Conradie, chief economist of gold and platinum group metals at the Department of Minerals and Energy…

END.

Furthermore what people tend to forget is that rising gold prices automatically leads to a lower gold production in the short term since mining companies will be switching from mining high grade ore to low grade ore. This phenomena is described in detail in chapter IV ‘Gold & Supply’ of the Gold Drivers Report.
So what do we have here?
A world reserve currency (dollar) which is backed by a technically bankrupt nation forcing foreign countries to look for ‘alternatives’… as stated by Australian treasurer Costello (see above).. But what are the alternatives?
Well, what about gold?
George Kapasakis, a senior foreign exchange trader at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Sydney recently said:

“Central banks will use gold as a fourth currency instead of the dollar, euro and yen” to hedge exchange-rate risk, Gold will be underpinned.”

END.

Well, hard to argue with that statement when you see headlines like these over and over again lately:

China Should Buy Gold, Central Bank Adviser Says

China should use its foreign-currency reserves, the world’s largest, to buy gold and oil as a hedge to guard against the risk of a sudden drop in the U.S. dollar, said an adviser on the central bank’s 13-member policy board.

END

So gold will shine as an alternative for the dollar, gold demand is picking up while gold supply is on the wane.. you really think this is gold bearish? No, of course not, the long-term prospects are excellent, the down-side risk is almost none.

The setup for a powerful run-up is phenomenal, as stated above once gold breaks its downtrend to the upside a run-up towards the $800 mark is in the cards before end of next year. What do you think your gold shares will be worth by then?

Its my strong believe that within a year from now many people will scratch their head how they could have been so stupid to have missed the major ‘BUY’ in Q4 of 2006.

We will alert our members once the upcoming ‘BUY’ opportunity presents itself and inform them upon good entry points for our Discovery TOP 10 stocks.

Stay tuned,

Eric Hommelberg

The Gold Discovery Letter/
The Gold Drivers Report

www.golddrivers.com

Readers interested in receiving our break-out alerts can join us today as of little as $30 a month. Technical break-out alerts are one of the main features of the Gold Discovery Letter which has furthermore a strong focus on tracking down major discovery cases. The TGDL Discovery portfolio has gained already +400% this year. Subscription info can be found HERE

[verwijderd] 27 oktober 2006 14:36

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

World gold output on the decline
Tessa Kruger
'26-OCT-06 18:00'

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --Ian Cockerill, chief executive officer of Gold Fields, said that he saw global gold production as falling between 1 and 1.5% annually as new gold mining projects fail to replace declining production at existing mines, at the company’s quarterly results presentation in Johannesburg today. He went on to say that the world consumes 85 milllion ounces of gold from finite ore bodies. Gold production in South Africa and elsewhere will continue to decline in the absence of new discoveries of gold resources.

He confirmed that net production in South Africa was falling despite new projects that are undertaken.

Cockerill believes the gold price is still in a “very positive” cycle and will continue to be strong despite the fact that it has come off its highs. “I believe the driver behind the gold price is still in place. The recent pull back in high prices was a healthy correction.”

He said it was possible that economic growth in China could slow from 10% to 6%, but growth of 6% was still very significant. “Another factor to consider is whether the world can cope with supplying China with commodities at its current growth rate.” A slower Chinese economy would also have positive ramifications for the mining industry as input costs would lower.

Cockerill said a gold price that increased slowly and steadily was better for strong physical demand as volatiliy in the price was damaging to the market’s credibility.

Gold Fields reported a net increase in earnings of what was considered a disappointing 13% for the September quarter of this year – and first fiscal quarter of 2007 – with earnings increasing from R618 million to R698 million (US$93.1 million). Operating profit increased a further 6% to R2 billion (US$267 million) with South African operations accounting for 62% of the profit.

Group margins were at 42%, while the company continues to invest in depth extension projects at Kloof and Driefontein and its bid for the rest of South Deep mine continues.

Its shareholder offer to Western Areas, which owns 50% of South Deep will go out in the next two days, Cockerill said. “The only remaining issue will be approval from the Competition Commission and there is no logical reason why the Commission would not approve.”

Total gold production decreased by 1% to 1,005,000 ounces in the last quarter as South African production decreased by 3% to 649,000 ounces and production from international operations increased 2% to 356,000 ounces.

Revenues increased to R4.7 billion (US$627.5 million) from R4.4 billion on the back of the rand gold price that was boosted 10% to R142,035 per kilogram.

Cockerill said that although a weaker rand added to the company’s bottom line in the short term, it could be a double-edged sword as it could “all of a sudden” result in suppliers demanding higher prices. Operating costs for September 2006 amounted to R2.764 billion – an increase of 10% comprising of a 5% increase in South Africa and 18% at international operations.

Cockerill emphasised that cost control was very critical to Gold Fields as cost pressures were mounting across the board. The company currently has good initiatives in place to deal with cost increases and is coping “reasonably well” with the cost environment.

“Gold Fields is in very strong investment mode locally and internationally and our strong cashflow help us to fund this.”

Overall production from operations is expected to be in line with the September quarter in the next, although gold output at the flagship Driefontein mine is expected to reduce from a little over 8 tons currently to 7.5 tons in the next two quarters due to delayed pillar extraction at No. 4 shaft.

[verwijderd] 29 oktober 2006 21:52

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold May Rise a Fourth Week as Slowing U.S. Growth Hurts Dollar

By Choy Leng Yeong

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for a fourth straight week on speculation a slowing U.S. economy will erode the value of the dollar, increasing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Twenty-three of 39 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sydney to Chicago on Oct. 26 and Oct. 27 advised buying gold, which rose 0.8 percent last week to $601 an ounce in New York. Seven respondents said to sell, and nine were neutral.

Gold has rebounded after a 4.7 percent drop in September that was the second-biggest monthly decline in two years, and the dollar has fallen for two consecutive weeks against the world's major currencies. U.S. economic growth slowed in the third quarter to the slowest pace since 2003 as the housing market slumped and the trade deficit widened.

``It's finally sinking in that this economy is slowing down,'' said Axel Merk, founder of Palo Alto, California-based Merk Investments LLC. ``The housing market is deteriorating sharply. Our clients are concerned that the dollar is no longer a safe asset, and that's why they flee to gold.''

Gold futures for December delivery rose $4.60 an ounce last week on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gain was predicted by a majority of analysts surveyed on Oct. 19 and Oct. 20. The Bloomberg survey has forecast prices accurately in 79 of 131 weeks, or 60 percent of the time.

The appeal of bullion over the dollar has increased as the outlook for growth dimmed. The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.6 percent annual rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said on Oct. 27. The first estimate of the period's gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, compares with a 2.6 percent gain in the second quarter.

Housing Slump

Residential housing construction fell at an annual rate of 17.4 percent, the biggest decline in 15 years, after shrinking at an 11.1 percent pace in the second quarter. The trade deficit widened to $639.9 billion from $624.2 billion as consumers bought more foreign-made goods.

The U.S. currency lost 1 percent last week against the euro and the yen.

``The dollar is starting to crumble, and gold has found its feet again,'' said Merk, whose fund invests in gold futures and currencies in Western Europe. The Merk Hard Currency Fund has climbed to $42 million from $10 million in March and $1 million at its May 2005 inception.

Federal Reserve policy makers kept their benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent for a third straight month at their meeting last week and predicted a ``moderate'' pace of expansion.

``Fed officials' latest comments on the U.S. economy and interest rates will cause some weakness in the dollar'' and support gold, said Rowan Menzies, chief commodity analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney.

Energy Costs

Rising energy costs may boost gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, analysts said. Crude oil may rise for the second straight week as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduces output and cold weather spurs fuel demand in the northern U.S., according to a separate Bloomberg survey of 46 analysts and traders.

Some investors buy gold to preserve purchasing power in times of accelerating inflation. Gold futures surged to $873 in 1980, when a jump in the cost of oil led to a 13 percent annual rise in U.S. consumer prices.

Tracking Oil

Gold has tumbled 18 percent from a 26-year high of $732 on May 12, partly because of a decline in energy costs from a record. Prices still are up 26 percent in the past year.

Oil jumped 6.9 percent last week after touching $56.55 a barrel on Oct. 20, the lowest since November. In mid-July, prices reached $78.40, the highest ever.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators reduced their net-long position in Comex gold futures in the week ended Oct. 24 to the lowest in more than a year, data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Speculative long positions, or bets that prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 56,050 contracts, down 9.3 percent from a week earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Choy Leng Yeong in Seattle at clyeong@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 29, 2006 12:29 EST

[verwijderd] 2 november 2006 19:56

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Silver & Gold Demand to Soar

By Neil Charnock Printer Friendly Version

October 31, 2006
www.goldoz.com.au

More about fundamentals today…

There is an important addition to my base and precious metal commodity thesis which I have covered during the past few weeks. China is planning to build 200 new cities for one million people each. This is a massive undertaking within the next few years, on present form I do not doubt they will do it. 200 new cities, China certainly has some momentum here and obviously intends to maintain it. Curiously momentum is measured scientifically by multiplying mass x velocity, in this case we have $2.2T (considerable mass) x 10%+ (now that’s what I call growth velocity), this simple formula adds up to one thing... DEMAND!

Two hundred million more Chinese residents into cities is a major historical movement, it is two thirds the population of the US and ten times Australia. One can not underestimate this, not that long ago (in historical terms) this would have been 20% of the whole population of earth. Japan, Korea and other developing economies went through “modernization” before China; this is nothing new, what is new however is the scale. 200,000,000 is a lot of people even in whole world “relative” terms.

This point does not need a graph; 200 more cities for 200 million more urbanized consumers. We are talking about a China with an urban population of over half a billion people and they will have a GDP roughly equal to Japan once they achieve this. The other really interesting thing about China at present is that the transition to internal consumption has been increasing and they are still churning out the infrastructure at a fantastic rate.

Developing economies follow a general pattern where infrastructure leads to internal growth and prosperity and China is only somewhere in mid cycle. Their infrastructure roll out is far from over and yet internal consumption is gathering a powerful head of steam in global terms, already with 300,000,000 consumers. As pointed out in a previous article the mathematics of compound growth at 10% per annum showed that this is proportionately more significant that the number indicates. Growing off a small base at a high rate is an easy trick yet growing a $2.2T economy (end 05 figure) at 10% is something the world has not seen in the post war modern era, if ever. Growing consistently at 10% off a high base, year after year will have an even more profound effect.

Gold and Silver Demand

Do not forget China has not standardized gold and silver retail infrastructure as yet, this will take shape over the next few years fueling massive new demand. Do not forget China has an ancient rich culture which embraces gold and silver ownership in a way the West does not understand. As the three forces of increasing average earnings, cultural affinity for precious metals and a standardized retail distribution network join together we will see a triple wave crest which will drive PM demand through the roof.

The Chinese Government and wealthy Chinese are extremely astute and this would not have escaped their attention. It is not their biggest consideration as they manage their economic plans, yet it will be on their agenda make no mistake about that. Wealthy Chinese insiders are probably loading up at current historically cheap levels, gold investment increased by 20% in China last year.

The weekly gold chart as shown above is not adjusted for inflation and without an understanding of the market forces which pushed gold below $400 per oz in the late 90’s one would be forgiven for thinking that gold has just enjoyed a massive rally. Without central bank sales and derivatives being used to sell vast amounts of un-mined gold forward we would not have seen the dip from 1996 to 2001. Call this extra-ordinary market forces if you like but make no mistake they are an anomaly in the history of gold, this is a distortion.

For that matter you may consider the overly dramatic rise from 1977 to 1980 was also distorted because the price of gold had been fixed for 4 decades. This is a highly political metal and is still of great interest to mankind. At the start of the chart on the left you could buy a house for $20,000 in Melbourne Australia. How things have changed.

As this gold bull moved from artificial lows in the late 90’s we saw each new consolidation phase occur at higher and higher prices levels. It is all relative, and back in 2002 we would have thought $600 to be a sky high price for gold… and silver bulls would have been overwhelmed with joy to see $11 as a new base. Yet today these prices are relatively cheap compared to recent highs. Recent highs will look just as insignificant as the early 2003 Gulf War influenced high of $370 does today as we look back in a few more short years. At the time I remember clearly how huge that peak looked… at least on the day chart, not long term. Was gold expensive at $730 earlier this year, yes it was relatively… but no, not when adjusted for inflation. As we look back at the early 2006 peak it will most likely look the same as $370 does now.

No matter what this distorted chart of gold shows, these are currently cheap historic levels for gold… at a current inflation-adjusted rate this “give away” price of gold is only $600 / 2.3 = $260 per ounce in 1980 $ terms. Silver is currently trading at US$12 or US$5.20 in 1980 inflation adjusted terms. I view these inflation adjustment calculations as very conservative @ 2.3x because they are the official figures. Once the “powers that be” in China are ready the Government will increase gold holdings within their projected foreign reserve balancing act, then the retail roll out will get a head of steam and the demand for precious metals will be driven like never before in our lifetimes. This seems to have commenced.

India, Russia and Brazil will be taking up the infrastructure roll out slack behind them going into their major infrastructure tipping point where we all gasp about their growth. India has only just moved up to the half a trillion GDP club and yet to gather highly significant commodity consumption. She is a sleeping beauty just like China was… past tense. India is well and truly on the move and even if it never reaches the development extremes of China it will still have a significant global impact on demand over the next 10 years at least. Gold and silver are even more important in this culture than China. As wealth and consumption grow in India we will see ever growing PM demand to take up the slack whenever process dip as Indians are extremely price sensitive. Therefore the dips will see support from this geological area.

The Gold Dinah has not gone away either. There are still rumblings in the Middle East about trade in gold instead of USD for oil which would be big news for gold. The silver Libertad is not going away either, this is a natural progression for Mexico due to their financial history and large silver production base.

These stunning metals are extremely rare having been formed in the stupendous pressure and heat of a supernova, during the explosion of an ancient massive star. Gold and silver were created in exceptional circumstances and quite ironically they perform best in exceptional circumstances.

Timing is another thing and we have to do our best to read the secular trends and fundamentals to mo

[verwijderd] 2 november 2006 19:57

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Timing is another thing and we have to do our best to read the secular trends and fundamentals to monitor for changes. Technicals assist us to time our entry and exit points however remember this, one of the main considerations to own these metals is for their value in extreme financial circumstances… as insurance. We could be sitting right on a break out in the metals right now and await this outcome. They are the truest store of wealth over time, those of us in the “know” understand this to be an absolute “no-brainer” of an investment, this is our firm opinion of course.

Other fundamentals include feedback I am getting about industry bodies, great projections… Suppliers, powerful demand and great projections… Companies, still struggling to source mill equipment etc…

Last general comment today… gold and silver markets are very small compared to other market sectors. Global gold and silver warehouse stocks, shares in companies that mine these very special metals are very tiny compared to other world markets. Any rush to this unique asset class will cause a significant price spike, there is no where enough gold to cover demand when this gets going. As this stage two bull emerges from this initial correction we will see renewed global interest and investment. Money will flow towards quality stocks in low sovereign risk mining centers; valuations can only go so high in Canada and the USA before the value seeking overflow hits destinations like Australia. The effect would be immense.

ASX Update…

I just analyzed the graphs of our top 35 ASX companies involved in PM mining activities. I have been strong with my analysis stating they were poised and so forth over the last several weeks and it is useful to check the accuracy of my work. Remember we have seen a false breakout in gold and silver and a commodity scare as the heavily altered CRB Index broke uptrend support. Copper has held at a very high historical level and zinc has powered. At first the larger stocks did behave as expected / projected and profits were taken because they had enjoyed a good run. Once this occurred I then noted the correction was “in” …and things have since improved. Strong rally has indeed started in many stocks during this POG correction.

The figures are interesting; Out of 35 stocks we have seen 14 stocks in clear strong uptrend, 7 diverging and have started to turn up, 8 in continuation of base with divergences indicating breakout is imminent, 1 just dipped below it’s base, 4 are in a down trend or broke down for what ever reason and 1 is flat with no divergence.

Many smaller and mid sized stocks have broken to the upside in a repeat of behavior similar to H2 2003. This market is not behaving like the POG is about to drop substantially and it is not behaving like we are going to have a boring time the next several months either. I miss full time trading at times like this and had better hurry up and hire some staff soon so I can get back to it.

I apologize I have released my article a few days late this time, there is a good reason. I try to keep to my word and I had mentioned that I would release my new web site for Australian precious metals stocks by October and I have been pressed. Unfortunately my first web site partner had to pull out of the project due to work and private pressures and he is greatly missed… however we have made it. I am now working with a small specialized team that is investment and trader based which is where we wish to specialize.

This new Australian site is under construction and the educational content is not up yet, this will follow over the next several weeks. The aim is to bring precious metals awareness up in Australia and to assist all global investors to find great Australian investments. The name is GoldOz, Oz stands for ounce and also can also represent Australia (the land of Oz / Aus)… address is www.goldoz.com.au and we can be contacted on info@goldoz.com.au .

Our mining research lists are available in the GoldOz store and more services are on the way. We have a special deal on offer on this research at present where we update and send again in the next two weeks and a full discount will apply on the upgraded product on the top producers in Australia. The site has a PM Stocks page with a large list of companies with web site links for Australian stocks which is a free service if you have the time to do this research yourself.

Good trading / investing.
Regards,
Neil Charnock
Email miningres@eden.net.au

Forum	# Topics	# Posts
Aalberts	466	7.016
AB InBev	2	5.495
Abionyx Pharma	2	29
Ablynx	43	13.356
ABN AMRO	1.582	51.617
ABO-Group	1	22
Acacia Pharma	9	24.692
Accell Group	151	4.132
Accentis	2	264
Accsys Technologies	23	10.618
ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES PLC	218	11.686
Ackermans & van Haaren	1	188
ADMA Biologics	1	34
Adomos	1	126
AdUX	2	457
Adyen	14	17.747
Aedifica	3	912
Aegon	3.258	322.710
AFC Ajax	538	7.088
Affimed NV	2	6.296
ageas	5.844	109.891
Agfa-Gevaert	14	2.049
Ahold	3.538	74.333
Air France - KLM	1.025	35.034
AIRBUS	1	11
Airspray	511	1.258
Akka Technologies	1	18
AkzoNobel	467	13.036
Alfen	16	24.775
Allfunds Group	4	1.470
Almunda Professionals (vh Novisource)	651	4.251
Alpha Pro Tech	1	17
Alphabet Inc.	1	406
Altice	106	51.198
Alumexx ((Voorheen Phelix (voorheen Inverko))	8.486	114.822
AM	228	684
Amarin Corporation	1	133
Amerikaanse aandelen	3.836	243.015
AMG	971	133.257
AMS	3	73
Amsterdam Commodities	305	6.689
AMT Holding	199	7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp	2	491
Antonov	22.632	153.605
Aperam	92	14.994
Apollo Alternative Assets	1	17
Apple	5	381
Arcadis	252	8.772
Arcelor Mittal	2.033	320.693
Archos	1	1
Arcona Property Fund	1	286
arGEN-X	17	10.300
Aroundtown SA	1	219
Arrowhead Research	5	9.731
Ascencio	1	26
ASIT biotech	2	697
ASMI	4.108	39.093
ASML	1.766	106.833
ASR Nederland	21	4.478
ATAI Life Sciences	1	7
Atenor Group	1	486
Athlon Group	121	176
Atrium European Real Estate	2	199
Auplata	1	55
Avantium	32	13.661
Axsome Therapeutics	1	177
Azelis Group	1	64
Azerion	7	3.392

Edelmetalen Terug naar discussie overzicht

Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

Neem deel aan de discussie

Direct naar Forum

Zoek alfabetisch op forum

Gesponsorde links

Macro & Bedrijfsagenda

19 februari