Forum: Edelmetalen » Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

[verwijderd] 7 november 2006 10:49

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Nature’s Antidote to Financial Chicanery
by Bill Bonner

As long-time sufferers know, we are not exactly bullish on gold. We buy gold, but we have no real opinion about what the price will be or when it will be there. We like to own gold, in other words, not speculate on it.

Gold is nature's antidote to human financial chicanery. The more distorted and stretched the world's money system becomes, the more important it is to own gold to protect yourself.

The FunnyMoneyReport.com keeps us abreast of the latest distortions:

"For starters, our country has become a nation of debt where anybody can get a line of credit. Once reserved for the select few, many Americans are now relying on credit to purchase the essentials of everyday life. Americans no longer save what they earn. Second, the U.S. government for all intensive purposes is bankrupt with a debt in the trillions. Third, the Federal Reserve throughout its existence has continuously devalued our currency by expanding the money supply. They continue to do so, but since they stopped reporting the M3 money supply numbers we no longer know exactly how much they are destroying the currency. Fourth, foreigners are looking for ways to withdraw from U.S. currency holdings into something more stable. Fifth, the housing boom Alan Greenspan created is in the midst of crashing. Anyone with adjustable rate mortgages or home equity loans are getting slammed. Sixth, real wages are going down and the price of tangible assets is going up. Seventh, the Government Accountability Office is warning of a future economic disaster. Eighth, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is now organizing more frequent meetings of the President's Working Group in Financial Markets otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team every six weeks. The question is why would Paulson be organizing additional meetings of this group if the economy is in good shape?"

Gold is pulled out of the ground only grudgingly and reluctantly. Each year, the total amount of it above terra firma increases by only about 1.7 percent. But paper or electronic wealth (of nominal dollar-based assets) is lighter than air. It puffs, floats, soars, zooms, orbits...and pretty soon, it has lost all connection to the on-the-ground reality of the real economy.

But gold never gets too far from it.

Recently, we've been watching an HBO series on the history of the Roman Empire. In last night's episode, we saw how close the fight between Caesar and Pompey for control of Rome really was. There was cunning and bravery on both sides. But only one side had the gold. When Pompey fled Rome, he made sure that the treasury went with him. But the treasure was waylaid...lost...and then recovered by Caesar. So, in the end, while Pompey may have had more troops, he had no way to pay them. We'll have to wait until tonight to find out what happens, but we have a feeling that it's the yellow stuff that will decide what happens.

Every government, before and since, has succumbed to the "Golden Rule" – he who has the gold makes the rules. When things are going well, a government can get by on paper money, I.O.U.s and credit. But when the going gets tough, suppliers, soldiers, and creditors lose faith in paper and promises; they want real money. And gold is real money.

Gold is up in price now simply because there are too many paper and electronic promises floating around. The Financial Times, for example, reports "panic selling" in the derivatives market. It seems that what's hopping out of everyone's hands is credit default swaps. Well, credit default swaps are what institutional investors buy when they fear the going might get tough. But now, instead of buying them, they're selling them...and selling them down to record low prices.

Apparently, a lot of people don't think a lot of credit will go bad for a lot of time.

But of course, that is just what most people tend to think...right before the gods let out a belly laugh...and things go bad in a big way.

• Now, here's a real negative for gold. Bloomberg reports that 27 out of 35 analysts are now bullish on the metal. They expect a weaker U.S. economy will drag down the dollar – and boost gold in the process. Rarely do prices rise when experts expect them to. But maybe this time, it will be different...and maybe gold will rise much more than the experts expect.

• Expectations for housing, meanwhile, continue to be rosy...if not downright peachy. Everyone admits housing is coming down...but they insist it will come down in a "soft landing." Soon, we expect to see them begin redefining what soft is.

November 7, 2006

Bill Bonner [send him mail] is the author, with Addison Wiggin, of Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of The 21st Century and Empire of Debt: The Rise Of An Epic Financial Crisis.

[verwijderd] 23 november 2006 10:54

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Peter Brimelow: Friday will be historic day for gold
www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story....

NEW YORK -- Is he or isn't he?

The Gartman Letter's Dennis Gartman is seen so frequently in the media as to resemble a hot newsletter at its sizzlingest.

His media distribution circuit (not including me) is similar. But the price is not: More than $6,000 a year, I am told.

For gold bugs, the question is the same, but different: How come this vociferous negativist on the role of gold seems in fact to have been about the best trader of the recent gold rally? Including going long virtually at the bottom in early October below $580. And in fact has probably been the most prone to use gold over the past couple of (dramatically positive) years.

The question is particularly critical because Gartman bought more gold (a fourth "position") on the opening Wednesday morning. For a while, as gold surged by more than $6, this looked like a genius call. Eventually, gold corrected and finished up only 30 cents.

But of course the party is not over.

Friday, in fact, will be a historic day: It will be the first occasion on which the Chicago Board of Trade gold contract is open when the Comex division of Nymex is closed. The CBOT contract became a serious competitor to New York's within the last year.

The Chicago contract outflanked New York by going electronic. In commodities courses at Stanford Business School a million years ago I was taught that an entrenched futures markets could not be displaced. They reckoned without the computer.

This means that Friday could actually be an interesting day for gold in America. If speculators wish, they can make a statement.

A key Gartman motivation was that the dollar looked likely to break. This in fact happened. As Richard Russell wrote Wednesday evening, "the dollar index plunging below its lower trendline was the most significant move of today. I'll be watching this whole picture carefully on Friday." (Russell, who is 82, does not believe in long weekends. He is thought to be saving these for retirement.)

Russell has a qualification: "However, if it's really breaking down, I was surprised that gold didn't move higher today."

A question that loyalists to Bill Murphy's LeMetropole CafÃ© service would be eager to answer: surreptitious selling from the official sector -- central banks.

Someone has clearly been selling. The streetTRACKS Gold ETF (GLD) reached a new record gold holding on Wednesday evening (418.84 tons,) and Tuesday's firm but not exceptional $6.60 gain turned out to have involved the addition of the equivalent of more than 6,900 Comex lots to the open interest of the New York and Chicago futures markets taken together. That is a big quantity, indicating that fresh buying is being fairly freely supplied.

In the end, the best current perspective on the gold market may turn out to be supplied by one of the older newsletter services: MarketVane's Bullish Consensus. On Wednesday evening, its reading for gold stood at 65 percent. In early May, at the gold peak, it was 92 percent.

By ominous comparison, the Nasdaq reading, 74 percent, is the highest since this service began breaking Nasdaq out separately at the beginning of 2003.

[verwijderd] 24 november 2006 00:27

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Who Expects Four-Digit Gold... and Why!
By David Bradshaw, Idea Factory Press
Nov 20, 2006

The commodity supercycle has swept gold prices to double since 2001.

Gold hit $725/oz. in 2006, then corrected under $600/oz. before beginning to rise again! How high will this bull market in "real money" and commodities send gold prices over the next 5 to 15 years?

Between 2001-2006 many analysts have jumped onto the $1,000/oz. plus gold bandwagon -- most of whom were not considered "gold bugs" in the past.

Here's a list of over two dozen prominent economic and gold experts already on the record forcasting four-digit gold prices to arrive in the years ahead. Their combined gold price expectation averages $2,195/oz.!

JULIAN PHILLIPS, Analyst -- GoldForecaster.com
"We would not be surprised to see $1,000-plus gold from sometime in 2007 at the earliest to 2009 at the latest. Physical demand is now being added to by the turnaround in hedge funds' change of heart to the upside. The potential oil shortage and more-than-likely ruptures in the stability of the global-money system when the dollar starts to suppurate." -Marketwatch, 11-3-06

DR. CLIVE ROFFEY, Elliot Wave Theory Analyst/Publisher -- Gold Action
"I believe that the current correction is a more likely to be a minor before a move to well above the previous $720 peak, probably above $800. When the minor correction should occur leading to a wave 5 that will eventually peak well above $1,000 before we hit the next major correction." -321gold, 10-6-06.

HOWARD RUFF, Editor -- The Ruff Times
"Gold and silver are now early in a historic bull market that will dwarf the 500-1700% profits we made in the '70s. Gold will hit at least $2,172 and $100 silver is inevitable. Investment vehicles to avoid: Stocks, bonds, fixed-return investments like utilities, REITs, residential real estate, ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages). Investment winners in bull markets: Gold, silver, copper and other base metals, uranium. The most powerful, completely essential factor affecting gold is monetary inflation. The most compelling force affecting silver today is the supply/demand equation." -Marketwatch, 8-24-06

DR. DAVID DAVIS, Senior Gold Analyst -- Credit Suisse Standard Securities
"Between 2007 and 2010, supply-and-demand dynamics will undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and official sector supply and increased demand from China and the investment community. We still see a gold price of $700/oz, $800/oz and $1,200/oz by 2008, 2010, and 2015 respectively." -Resource Investor, 8-4-06

STEPHEN LEEB, Author -- The Coming Economic Collapse
"Gold took a hit last week, falling 5.7%. As with other commodities, gold was perhaps due for a correction and responded to Bernanke’s tougher words. We could see it drift a little lower – between $580 and $600. But this downside is paltry compared to the upside potential for gold. Gold could reach a price many times higher than it’s at today, regardless of whether inflation or deflation becomes the problem. So we remain buyers of gold along with energy and our low-risk hedges." The Complete Investor -6-12-06

HARRY SCHULTZ, Analyst -- International Harry Schultz Letter
"My view has always been: current governments (which are bank-owned) won't voluntarily return to a gold standard, with its discipline on money creation. But, when the price roars to, say $1,600, they'll quite possibly be forced to do so, to appease a clamor for sound money - e.g. Bretton Woods II. The price could go to $2,000 while they debate new rules. Washington insiders would see it as their last chance to save the US dollar as a reserve currency. If they don't, the euro, yen or yuan could make a bid for that status ... If no rules are made at $1,600, gold could keep climbing till they do. Hello $3,000." -MW, 6-5-06

PAUL MYLCHREEST, Analyst -- Cheuvreux Investment
"We also see the possibility of a spike to $2,000 or higher, if the story on diminished central bank gold reserves becomes widely accepted, if central banks in countries with large US dollar holdings compete to buy gold and diversify forex reserves away from dollars, and if the U.S. economy slides into either high rates of inflation or deflation." -Mineweb, 2-6-06.

JIM CRAMER, Founder -- Thestreet.com, Host -- Mad Money, Real Money
"Gold could reach $1,000 if the Chinese stop buying our paper. Once the levee to the Treasuries breaks, the easy high ground worth gaining will be gold. Any portfolio designed to counter government-mandated inflation has to be bedrocked in gold" -New York magazine, Oct. 10, 2005

JAMES TURK, Founder -- Goldmoney.com
"Gold is going much higher, and the $8,000 [per ounce] I mentioned a couple of years ago is probably as good a target as any. There are two aspects to what's driving the gold price: First, there is strong physical demand around the world. When gold crossed the $500-an-ounce level, people started buying gold in anticipation of monetary problems. Second, the physical demand for gold is causing a huge problem for the gold shorts. There has been a large gold carry trade in place. It is very possible gold could have a massive spike in the next six to 12 months to as high as $2,000, driven by these factors." "GOLD MINE" -Barrons, 5/29/06

JIM ROGERS, Author/Adventurer -- Hot Commodities (former George Soros partner)
"Mr. Rogers, who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, told Bloomberg the boom in energy and raw material prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce. The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years, so if history is any guide, they've got a long way to go. This is not a bubble." -Bloomberg, 4-19-06

RICHARD RUSSELL, Editor -- Dow Theory Letters
"Gold is now being accepted as the fourth currency along with the dollar, the euro and the yen. But there is a difference. Gold is also being recognized as the tangible currency and the ONLY SAFE currency. That gold pays no interest -- but is still at an 25-year high in terms of dollars -- is a testament to its value and safety in the eyes of sophisticated investors." Dowtheoryletters.com

J. TAYLOR, Editor -- J. Taylor's Gold and Technology Stocks
"This is a different gold bull market and most bullish of all is that fact that this is still a stealth bull market. The voice of the global market is just starting to express a declining confidence in the dollar but with a coverage of only 1.7% [in U.S. gold reserves] at close to $700/oz., I believe we are still in the very early stages of a major gold bull market. We have a long, long ways to go toward $3,000 and beyond." -Howestreet.com

JOHN HATHAWAY, Portfolio Manager -- Tocqueville Gold Fund
"Gold is in a bull-market trend, and there are a lot of reasons for that, and we will see higher prices. People shouldn't be surprised to see gold trade in the four digits." -Barrons ... "In truth, the price of gold at $600 is no big deal. In 1980 dollars, it is only $300. If prior highs mean anything, a target of $1700 in today’s dollars is what investors should be thinking about. Investors should worry less about whether this particular moment is a good or bad entry point and ponder the implications of sailing through uncharted waters without a lifeboat." -Tocqueville.com

MARC FABER, Author -- Tommorrow's Gold
"A vicious drop in the Dow coupled with a vicious rise in gold, possibly pushing gold to an astounding $

[verwijderd] 24 november 2006 00:29

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

BILL BONNER, Author/Editor -- Daily Reckoning
"When the price of gold goes over $1,000, the bull market will be in its bubble phase. The price may go far higher - depending on what else is going on in the economy and the markets. But this will be a time to be careful...when we stop adding to our positions and begin to reduce them. Gold is now cheap and almost hidden. People are buying it for the right reason: because it is cheap. We see signs, though, that gold is coming out of the closet and the financial press is beginning to notice." Dailyreckoning.com

CRAIG R. SMITH, Author/CEO -- Swiss America
"Gold is clearly headed toward $1,000/oz. and is still a great bargain near $700/oz! Gold recently jumped over $700, and is overdue for a price correction -- which is the sure sign of a healthy bull market -- offering yet another opportunity to buy the dips in this ongoing secular bull market." -CNBC Squawk Box

Lord WILLIAM REES-MOGG, Author & Economist
"I expect gold to reach $1,000 an ounce in the foreseeable future. The price of gold is linked to the price of oil and to the movements of the dollar... oil is probably headed towards $100 a barrel. If there is any shooting in Iran, prices will go through the roof. That, however, is one reason for thinking that there may not be any attack on Iran. The world’s oil supply cannot afford it." -Money Week

ROBERT MCEWEN, CEO -- U.S. Gold Corp.
"Gold prices may reach $2,000 an ounce by 2010 on demand for an alternative to currencies. You have much more money than there is gold, and as people see their currencies falling relative to gold, they're going to be saying `Maybe I should have some of this'." -Bloomberg

PHILLIP GOTTHEFF, President/Commodities Analyst -- Equidex Inc.
"The gold market knows inflation is already here ... which helps explain the hysterical surge in prices in 2006... ETFs have expanded the metals market to now include institutional investors... With Goldman Saks forecasting $100+ oil I think we could see $1,000-1,500 gold easily... Why hoard? Because investors are afraid of paper. If we were to try to monetize our paper with gold the price would be in the $10,000/oz. - $20,000/oz. range." -CNBC "$1,000 gold debate" 5-9-06

JOHN PERSON, President -- National Futures Advisory Services
"As more and more investors start allocating more resources in gold, we could see $800 and as high as $1,000 by year's end. All the elements are in place for such a move, and it would not be unrealistic to achieve in a relatively short period of time." -Marketwatch.com

KEVIN KERR, Commentator/Author -- Marketwatch.com
"Golden Opportunity: The case for $1,000 an ounce... If your thing is to hold the actual gold in your hand then numismatics (coins) or bullion are the way to go." -Marketwatch.com

JOHN EMBRY, Chief Investment Strategist -- Sprott Asset Management
"Gold will hit at least $800 per ounce as paper money is going to hell in a handcart. Even a $1,000/oz gold price may be conservative." -MineWeb.com

PIERRE LASSONDE, President -- Newmont Mining Corp.
"The price of bullion may exceed $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce within five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply." Globeandmail

BILL MURPHY, Founder -- GATA.org, Lemetropolecafe.com
"What we are seeing is the result of years and years of a gold price suppression scheme BLOWING UP! Gold is moving up because the crooks have lost control! GOLD is going to go to $3,000/oz as more geopolitical problems arise." -GoldRush21

ROSS NORMAN, TheBullionDesk.com
"Yes, I do think we will be in the $700s perhaps late in the second quarter, or perhaps the third quarter of 2006 - the market seems incredibly robust both in terms of external factors like the correlation with the oil market that we’re still underperforming against - if the ratio held with that we’d be at about $1,000 an ounce now. I think it’s gaining strength from the ETFs and more corporate and pension money coming into the market on a regular day by day basis - all this conspires to make one believe that the market has got plenty of strength, that it’s “stronger for longer” as they say." -Thebulliondesk.com

ADAM HAMILTON, CPA -- Zeal Intelligence
"If our current gold rally truly unfolds into a Great Gold Rally, $1000 gold is merely the first stage. A gold bubble, which will probably ultimately happen as a way to climax the coming gold mania maybe five to seven years out, could easily launch gold above $5000 per ounce. The actual top of a new gold bubble at the final pinnacle of another Great Gold Rally could touch $6000+ per ounce!" -Zeallc.com

EMANUEL BALARIE, Senior Market Strategist -- Wisdom Financial
"I think gold prices will eventually shatter even my own bullish expectations of $1,000/oz. If you have not entered the gold market, waiting for an opportune time might be too late. Keep in mind that regardless of what the media is telling you, gold is still cheap at these levels." -CNBC Squawk on the Street

NICK MOORE, Chief Metal Analyst -- ABN Amro
"$1 000 gold is by no means an outrageous forecast. It's a cocktail of positive stimuli for gold, you get the spillover of people buying into commodities, whether its copper, aluminum, soft commodities or precious metals. People are moving there." - Fin24.com

PAUL VAN EEDEN, Managing Partner -- Cranberry Capital LLC
"While my model indicates gold should be fairly valued at $900, there's no reason to believe that gold wouldn't dramatically overshoot that mark. And if 1979 to 1980 is anything to go by, it could exceed several thousand dollars per ounce." -Bloomberg

JON NADLER, Investment Products Analyst -- Kitco
"Gold prices actually started their life at $35 per ounce in the early 1970s. From there, it went to $850-$875 -- a twenty-five-times-over move. Gold began its latest move up at $252, so prices at $6,250 can't be ruled out either, in terms of magnitude of the move." -Marketwatch.com

[verwijderd] 29 november 2006 08:22

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Tarapore for Increasing
Gold Component
in Forex Reserves

From The Indian Express / Financial Express, Mumbai
Wednesday, November 29, 2006

www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_stor...

MUMBAI, Nov. 28Â -- Underscoring the benefits of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and the uniqueness of a gold component as part of the forex basket, S.S. Tarapore, former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India and an economist, has strongly advocated for increasing the proportion of gold in the countryâ€™s forex reserve. He was speaking at a conference, "Foreign Exchange Management: The Way Forward," on Tuesday.

In the past, country's forex reserves have jumped significantly but the gold holding in it has now dwindled to as low as 3.6 percent. "If the gold proportion of the RBI's forex reserves were cautiously raised, to, say, 10 percent of total reserves, it would require an additional purchase of gold by the RBI of $10-$11 billion," he said.

But while speaking to reporters he declined to specify a certain percentage. Maintaining that the time was ripe for shedding the "phantom fears" of the gold transactions of the RBI, he said that buying gold "should not be a taboo" and selling RBI gold should not be a "talk of shame."

"Gold is unique, in the sense it is both a commodity and a store of value. More importantly, gold invariably moves inversely with the US dollar and rises in value when international inflation gathers momentum. Thus there are strong reasons for holding a reasonable proportion of Indian foreign reserve exchange reserves in gold," Tarapore added.

He further explained that the RBI's inability to cash in on favourable trends in gold emanated from unfounded fears of the Indian polity. "Before the RBI moves over to an active gold policy, the fears of gold in the polity have to be removed," he said.

Tarapore also said there should be a discussion paper prepared on gold that should put out in fairly simple terms the costs of the present passive policy and what a proactive gold policy would deliver if the RBI were to undertake two-way transactions in gold. He also cautioned against any transfer of ownership related to cash transactions from the Reserve Bank of India to the government. "Transfer of ownership from the RBI to government in all-cash transactions is a dangerous precedent," he said.

On the question of the FCAC's recommendation of formation of new banks by large corporate houses he said, "we need well-capitalised banks which large corporates can do."

[verwijderd] 1 december 2006 11:34

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold ETFs nearly ready to go in India

From the Indian Express, Mumbai Friday, December 1, 2006 www.indianexpress.com/story/17646.html

MUMBAI -- After a long wait, investors can now hope to buy and sell gold like shares on the stock exchanges. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is in the final stages of clearing gold exchange-traded funds in India, the largest market for the yellow metal in the world.

Though two mutual funds -- Benchmark Mutual Fund and UTI Mutual Fund -- have already submitted proposals for gold funds in the market, the market regulator took its own time to fine-tune the concept. Many other fund houses, including DSP Merrill Lynch, are also interested in coming out with these funds.

"We are expecting the Sebi to clear these two schemes soon," says the chairman of the Association of Mutual Funds of India, A.P. Kurien. "This instrument would give small investors a chance to accumulate gold in small amounts over years and help them to diversify their portfolio," he said, adding, "and when he wants to sell, he can either get gold or simply sell the units."

The regulator has amended the Custodian of Securities Act, enabling the custodians of the proposed gold funds to outsource the safekeeping of bullion to outside agencies. But the Sebi has made it clear that the custodians would be responsible to clients (mutual funds) for safekeeping of the gold kept with other persons, including any associated risks.

ETF is a new term for Indian investors. Globally ETFs handle assets worth billions of dollars. There are over 300 ETFs in the U.S. alone. "For Indian investors, it will be a new investment avenue ... our investors are familiar with the gold market and its price movements," a mutual fund source said.

The new fund will track the price of gold. Its appointed custodians will buy and sell gold bullion as investors look at positions in the ETF.

The gold ETF idea was proposed by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, who wrote in the Union Budget 2005 that Sebi should permit, in consultation with the RBI, mutual funds to introduce exchange-traded funds with gold as the underlying asset. Such a move would enable any household "to buy and sell gold in units for as little as Rs 100," and these units could be traded in the same manner as mutual fund units, he said.

As the first step, Sebi had recently allowed domestic mutual funds to invest in ETFs abroad. ETF tracks a particular index or sector and seeks to replicate its performance by owning the securities that make up the index or sector, no matter how broad or narrow a segment of the market it may be. Thus an ETF may include several dozen or sometimes several hundred or even several thousand securities. As the number of indexes continues to grow, there is an increasing variety of ETFs in which to invest.

The gold ETF was first officially conceptualised by Benchmark Asset Management Co. in India when it filed a proposal with the Sebi in May 2002. It was not launched since it did not receive regulatory approval. The first gold exchange-traded fund actually launched was in March 2003 on the Australian Stock Exchange under Gold Bullion Securities. India, which has gold worth Rs 24 lakh crore, is also one of the largest consumers of gold in the world and absorbs around 700 tonnes of the worldâ€™s annual consumption of about 3,200 tonnes.

An exchange-traded fund is a security that tracks an index and represents a basket of stocks like an index fund but trades like a stock on an exchange, thus experiencing price changes throughout the day as it is bought and sold.

In the case of UTI's proposed gold fund, the units issued under this scheme will be referred to as UTI Goldshare and will have a face value of Rs 100 each. Investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in gold can get an instantaneous exposure to the physical asset. Its units can be traded like a share and one can buy and sell them quickly at the ruling market price, unlike physical gold, which can be sold only for a discount and by a cumbersome process.

[verwijderd] 19 december 2006 23:23

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

A Big Buyer Scooped Up Gold Stocks Friday, Should You?
By Mike
Swanson December 18, 2006

You need to buy gold stocks if you don't already have a position. I bought near the October lows and added on to my position last week. I think now is the optimal time to buy or add on.

Why?

Because it appears that we saw signs of a gold stock bottom Friday and if Friday wasn't the bottom then the downside is very limited. You participate in bull markets by buying the dips and that's what we've gotten in gold stocks over the past week and a half. You might not get the exact bottom of this dip, but you can get within a few percentage points of it by buying now and that's all you need to do.

First of all, the big picture is very bullish for gold stocks:

The XAU and HUI appear to be in similar position as they were in 2003 and 2005 after they put in major bottoms. During these times the XAU hit its lower 200-day bollinger band then rallied back up to its upper 200-day bollinger band, after which it paused for a few weeks and then rallied sharply for the next six months. I believe that we are going to see something very similar unfold over the next eight months. Right now the XAU appears poised to go to its upper 200-day bollinger band by the middle of January. It should then consolidate and break out again to launch the next leg up in this bull market.

Another way to think of it is that, since May, the XAU has been trading in a very wide range and digesting the gains of the 2005. It should break out of this range next year and make another step up.

After bottoming in October, the XAU has rallied up to the 150 area, which was the resistance zone of the summer and is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the May high and October bottom. The XAU has pulled back from this level and appears ready to break it by the end of this month or early January. Next resistance is the 200-day bollinger band at 159.44, but a breakout from 150 would be a confirmation of the overall bullish trend of the gold market.

I believe it is best to just position yourself now in gold stocks. There are some signs that they bottomed last week:

During the past two weeks the XAU and HUI appear to have repeated the same type of short-term pullback in a larger uptrend that they completed in November before going higher. After the FOMC announcement last week the price of gold slid over 15 points by the end of the week, but gold stocks held their December lows to create a positive divergence. The HUI and gold stock ETF GDX both hit their support trendline lines on Friday and then bounced to create a potential candlestick reversal.

In the last half hour of trading on Friday while gold floundered into the close a big buyer stepped in and bought at least $750 million dollars worth of gold stocks. I know this, because I was watching the gold stocks on the close. Huge block trades went off in MNG, GOLD, EGO, SLW, SA, NEM, ABX, AU, GG, and GFI in the last few minutes of trading on Friday. A block of over one million shares went off in GFI alone.

What is more gold commercial traders actually bought 5,819 contracts while shorting 1,933 contracts to increase their long exposure to the metal as it fell in week ending December 12 while speculators sold 2,017 contracts. This is important because normally the commercial traders are on the right side of the market while the speculators are on the wrong side.

These are signs that the gold stocks put in a bottom on Friday. However, nothing is certain and if they haven't bottomed then we have to consider they could fall more to test their next support level. That is the XAU's 50-day moving average, which is currently sitting at 136.95 and slowly moving up everyday. So if you were to buy here then you would have to make room for a 5% drop in your position. I think that is a risk worth taking when you have potential gains of twenty times that over the next eight months. It's tough to get in on the exact final downtick of a correction so you should just pinch your nose and jump in.

[verwijderd] 20 december 2006 08:25

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

The Dollar Has Fallen;When Is Gold Dinar Coming?
By Dzikrullah W. Pramudya The Brunei Times (Brunei Darussalam)Tuesday, December 19, 2006

www.bruneitimes.com.bn/section/opinio...

The veteran samurai of capitalism has acknowledged that his sword is no longer sharp enough to rule the world. Last week former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he expected the dollar to stay weak for the next few years and will continue to drift down, weighed by the US balance of payments deficit.

"I expect that the dollar will continue to drift downwards until there will be a change in the US balance of payments," Greenspan told a business conference via video-link from the United States to Israel. He said markets were so sophisticated it was very difficult to forecast the short term direction of the dollar.

Greenspan also noticed that OPEC nations were switching their reserves out of dollars and into euro and yen. "It is imprudent to hold everything in one currency," he said, adding that at some point the dollar will be moving lower.

What Greenspan failed to acknowledge was, in fact, that for such a long time it had been an imprudent act to hold ANYTHING in any conventional currency, any fiat money -- which is the paper money that is made legal and valued by the law. Dollar, euro, franc, mark, pound sterling, rupee, ringgit, peso, rupiah, bath -- none are backed by a real value. Fiat money has no intrinsic value, as opposed to commodity money such as gold dinar.

If tomorrow, for any reason, the US government declares its intention to devalue US$100 notes into US$10, then billions of people would not be able to do anything but submit and accept the reality that in the next 24 hours they would be much poorer.

No such threat with regard to gold dinar. Even if all governments under the sun declare that gold is valueless, not many people would even blink. Gold is gold, and people will always appreciate it as something highly precious.

The value of a 22-carrat gold dinar coin during the time of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) more than 1,400 years ago was exactly the same with its value today. Burn a piece of gold or melt it, its value would remain. Try to burn a bagful of US dollar notes and use the charred remnants to buy a plate of rice. A burnt piece of fiat money is useless. Worse, you do not even need to burn fiat money to render it useless. All you need to do is save it in a bank and never touch it; after several years the value of your money would certainly drop. In fact, the dollar value has kept sliding downwards against gold since 1970s until today.

Many people think that it is the nature of money and that inflation is to blame. But pressure groups in the US such as FAME (Foundation for the Advancement of Monetary Education) and GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) have different thoughts. They are speaking out against the fiat money-based monetary system. "Because of material misrepresentations and nondisclosure regarding our fiat dollar, it is prima facie fraudulent," says Lawrence Parks, executive director of FAME.

Both organisations have long pursued a congressional reform in the monetary system. According to the FAME fact sheet, Congress has improperly delegated to the US banking system a power Congress does not have under the US Constitution: the power to create legal-tender-irredeemable-paper-ticket/electronic-fiat-token money out of nothing.

Since 1946, on a base of about US$150 billion, the U.S. banking system has created US$9.4 trillion up to 2005. About US$ 700 billion was created by the Federal Reserve, and the balance, about US$8.7 trillion, was created by private companies, banks. "Why should private companies be empowered to create money?" asks Parks.

We will let the Americans respond to the confusion that has influenced the world economy through their fiat money system. This article will focus on a solution -- namely the commodity money. In this case, the gold dinar currency is a solution.

Many people in Southeast Asia would usually see the gold dinar issue as political, launched in 2003 by then-Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad. In fact, Mahathir had been responding to the issue a long time after it was first raised by many Muslims. Mahathir said Malaysia would take the initiative to overhaul the international financial system by establishing the gold dinar as an alternative currency.

He criticised the current financial system as one that that was "skewed toward rich countries and speculators." He also stated that Malaysia would exert efforts to use the gold dinar for its trade with Iran for starters. If the initiative proved to be successful, Malaysia would extend it to cover 32 countries having bilateral payment arrangements with Malaysia.

Now the dollar has fallen. Why hasn't the gold dinar emerged yet, the way Mahathir and many other people have wished?

An answer came from the Jakarta-based Dinar Club president, Muhaimin Iqbal, who is also CEO of the oldest insurance company in Indonesia. Iqbal said it would be very difficult for the gold dinar to establish itself as an alternative currency without the support from sharia or Islamic banking. He said, "The only institution that can facilitate modern payment, transfer of the dinar, etc., is the sharia bank."

He pointed out how opening a gold dinar account would benefit the sharia bank as it protects people who save their gold dinar from interest (usury, riba). The important element that is still missing, said Iqbal, is the "niyat" or the political will of sharia banking and governments.

Iqbal specifically suggested that the wisest investment step for Bruneians, following the fall of the dollar (which will continue to fall, according to Greenspan's prediction), would be to keep their wealth in gold dinar. An alternative for the dinar currency, Iqbal said, would be to have pure gold bullion.

Iqbal said, however, that the gold dinar is not even the ultimate aim of an economic system. Wealthy people, especially if they are Muslim, should not let their wealth sit idle in the banks for a long time. It would still be better to invest in the real sector, or distribute it as "infaq" or "sadaqa" in the path of Allah, as this would be the best investment indeed. In the name of justice, Islam has forbidden the circulation of wealth only among the wealthy. This would be the best solution, indeed, for a world beset by chaotic financial systems.

[verwijderd] 24 december 2006 10:51

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Phase Two of the Great Gold and Silver Bull Cycle Begins

By Roger Wiegand Printer Friendly Version
December 20, 2006

www.tradertracks.com

“Everything in the world may be endured except continual prosperity.” - Johan von Goeth 1749-1832.

“Cycles and rhythms of life are normal and somewhat predictable. Prosperity, recession and periodic depressions are standard and necessary corrections adjusting for irrational exuberance occurring in each of these cycles. Those cycles are especially mandatory and visible in a capitalistic society. Free market conditions will spill over and affect socialism and communism as well. Our latest cycle which marked the beginning of another 60-70 year K-Wave was temporarily blocked by Alan Greenspan using too easy credit for housing. When the Nasdaq crashed in 2000, all markets should have followed suit. They were not permitted to do so as the Federal Reserve washed a sea of cash over sinking markets in an astounding trillion dollar give-away to American consumers. This bubble has burst, sales have stopped and the housing ATM is sinking with consumer borrowers who were used by it. There are no more new bubbles for Benny Brenanke and Hank Paulson to create. Now its correction time coming with a vengeance.” –Traderrog

If we had infinite prosperity like Alan Greenspan, Ben Brenanke and our Federal Reserve would prefer to instigate, prices would rise forever and consumers would stop saving money. Standard procedure would be to spend it all now and working capital would soon be erased. The nasty conclusion is unpaid debts and no business growth for the future. Diluted fiat currencies feed this situation until finally consumer and business confidence wanes and then finally, all is lost. The German example of this hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic during 1922-1923 was a famous economic historical event. Other more recent examples are Brazil, Argentina and other Latin American nations.

Bank reserves would have to be constantly replenished which is what we see today in the current borrow-and-spend environment. Americans are given easy or ridiculous credit terms and they immediately spend all the money. Asia provides the stuff and we continue to buy it with both hands. On-going credit inflation now demands $2 Billion per day of new borrowed cash to keep this bankrupt SS United States afloat. Consumer and business borrowing are added to these government debts. This does not even count the trillions of unfunded debt attributed to Social Security, Medicare, the Pension Reserve Trust and the future Act Two version of the Resolution Trust needed to save the 15,000 crashing banks taken down by lousy real estate loans. Last year we crossed a threshold of no return as our trade balance has exceeded the point where all traveling this road meet the identical ultimate fate-currency destruction by hyper-inflation.

As measured in current numbers no country or society has been able to regain its economic footing once the hole was dug this deep. The cave-in is coming but no one knows the trigger or the when. This week Thailand’s green-horn, 60 days on the job lady Treasury Secretary tried capital controls to block currency speculators. She did many billions of damage in 24 hours and immediately had to rescind parts of the proposed new capital controls. Just last week our wise colleague Jim Turk warned of this event coming in 2007. Seems like we got the early 2006 test example this year instead. Like Napoleon said in our letter last week, “In politics stupidity is not a handicap.”

The United States has experienced several major depressions since its founding in 1776. The Revolutionary War was basically fought on a shoe string and the first Treasury Secretary of our nation used his own fortune and credit to help pay for that war and get our country on its first feeble monetary legs. Most of these following recession-depression events appeared after wars which created destruction of all kinds. The early depressive events in the 1800’s through and including the Great Depression of the 1930’s lasted from 7 to 11 years in length with the average being roughly 9.5 years.

The first one in the 1800’s was just after the war of 1812 and lasted about two years. This time span doesn’t fit the 7 to 11 year cycle but shortly after 1814 things appeared better only to be crunched again with a severe depression in 1819-1821. The next one was officially 1837-1838 but the USA economy was in very poor shape from 1835 to nearly 1845. There was a mini dip of scary intensity in 1857 and then a prolonged down period after the Civil War for most of the 1870’s. In the 1890’s, the recession-depression lasted from 1892 through 1898. Smaller recessions were reported in 1914-1915 and 1920-1922.

Those 1800’s events except the later Panic of 1906 appeared during periods following wars, minor conflicts and major turning points in commerce and business. These turning points coincided with new inventions, newer ways of doing business and the dawn of the industrial revolution in America. The common thread was severe change somewhat like the advent of the internet in recent times. The panic of 1906 was in many respects an early example of what was to come in 1929-1940. This panic was a genuine Wall Street crash as liquidity had vanished in a cascade of stock selling after market confidence slid over the cliff. This event was quickly repaired by J.P. Morgan and his banker friends as he forced them to re-liquefy the stock brokers thus saving the day. This Panic was blamed by many for the birth of the notorious United States Federal Reserve which is not an official government entity as supposed by many, but a private cabal of USA bankers now holding the money power of God in our land pushing the cost and manufacture of dollars, bonds and notes wherever they choose. So, in 1913 began the grand experiment in fiat money and the American inflation monster was born.

1920-1940 is Replicated by 1990-2010

After 1922 commerce had recovered from WW I and its aftermath. Germany was not so lucky but the USA was insulated from them in the 1920’s for the most part. When America got moving in the early 1920’s the growth came with a rush. A goodly part of this new boom was being financed by a massive inflow of gold from abroad as our nation embarked upon the boom of the century.

A common theme in all of these negative economic events has been:

1. An excessive amount of loose capital being invested in fixed hard assets and illiquid paper assets. Cash was not king but owning lots of illiquid stuff was.

2. Speculation in stocks, commodities, and real estate has been also a consistent market driver for excess gambling in all sorts of businesses as well as the Las Vegas traditional type.

Overall effect of these massive investments has been to tie-up real cash and liquidity causing participants to become asset-heavy and cash poor. Immense pressures of too much cash chasing too few good investments created historic inflation. The bell rings when the buying stops and all values begin to decline. There is no escape as there are no buyers for all this over-valued stuff.

4. Not so much in the 1920’s but more common from 1812 through 1906 there were several dislocations in currencies somewhat comparative to Germany in the early 1920’s. These create instability and are not cured over night.

[verwijderd] 24 december 2006 10:53

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Before 1930 several untapped and very market rich opportunities opened with the railroads, modern machinery, development of natural resources, and sudden increases in new gold reserves which greatly expanded available credit. Time payments were not much of a business before the 1920’s. A nice home in 1900 cost about $2,500 to $5,000 and home owners usually saved 100% of the money to buy before doing so. Twenty-five years later in the 1920’s boom, buying on time was “the thing” and it spread like wildfire. This expansion of consumer credit was a contributor to the 1929 event but not a primary one.

When big trouble arrived in 1929-1932, real estate speculation in Florida’s land boom had been part of it as was the final Wall Street event which opened the crashing flood gates.

Where are we in 2006?

1. We took the time to revisit this history to explain there is nothing really new today compared with those events preceding 1929.

2. Credit is way too free and easy.

3. Money seems to have less value each day.

4. Inflation while not of the hyper-variety is trending in that direction.

5. There is too much big cash liquidity sloshing around on the cheap for hedge funds and New York take-over artists to promulgate their trade.

6. There is a very wide disparity between a handful of very rich people and the poor with a vanishing middle class. This is common before major market corrections.

7. Trade wars and tariffs are on the table. These threats are uttered almost daily.

This is the usual “Me first” nationalistic mentality. Putin scared Europe with his gas shut-off and Ms. Pelosi our new Demo leader is threatening China with 27% tarrifs. The Middle Eastern gang threatens oil shut-offs and currency transfers out of the U.S. Dollar.

8. Business ethics have collapsed in the past few crazy years destroying entire companies and wrecking others with misplaced trading ideas. Enron and a few early hedge fund failures are evidence. Those boys managing that $6 Billion natural gas fund debacle were just all re-hired by Goldman Sachs to have another go. Others are Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the still hidden Farm Home Loan operations. The list goes on and on.

9. Then, we have the forever war in Iraq which appears to have degenerated into a worsened civil war threatening to destabilize the entire Middle East with Iranian and terrorist aggression. Crude oil will be used as a major weapon. Do not believe otherwise.

The stock market low from 1921 to the 1929 high was more than 500%. Interestingly, the percentage of increase is comparable to our modern day pre-crash rally of the Nasdaq.

We do technical analysis and are always looking for historical comparisons. In checking the 1928-1929 top, we discovered the preceding eight year rally run was so powerful it took nearly 18 months to form the technical top before it all dumped over. Usually these tops can form and sell in much less time. Today in 2006, our fellow colleagues and analysts have kept predicting the tip-over top and it keeps extending! This was the big story before the 1930’s major league event.

Another interesting situation was the large amount of foreign loans made by the USA (both public and private) for war restoration in Europe but also throughout several other nations as well. This was the first time big money in large amounts was loaned outside of the USA. From 1919 to 1930 the total exceeded $15 Billion which was massive bucks in those days. Please note that over ½ of this money went into portfolio investments where there was zero American management of those funds. Sound like China?

Domestically, America by 1929 had discovered most of the newer investment frontiers and there were not enough new trading or investment ideas to swallow all the available capital that was being tossed around. Does this sound familiar? Today we have the same problem but it’s probably 1,000% worse since Japan’s carry trade and our dollar printing have escalated credit to legendary new heights.

Exactly 80 years ago in 1927, as in our forth-coming 2007, real estate and construction were and are in the soup followed by major inflation. At this cycle juncture people are getting tense with bad credits, lack of cash, higher prices, and failing installment sales of several kinds with questionable erratic stock markets.

Here comes the big one: In 1927 when it was obvious business and commerce was slowing dramatically, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS BEGAN TO BUY GOVERNMENT SECURITIES. It seems there is nothing new in this world at all.

Also, in 1927, it was reported and generally believed by the American public that the Federal Reserve purchases were taken to PREVENT LARGE EXPORTS OF GOLD FROM THE BANK OF ENGLAND TO THE UNITED STATES. INTEREST RATES IN ENGLAND WERE HIGHER AT THE TIME. THIS RATE DIFFERENCE AND THOSE POTENTIAL GOLD SALES WERE CONSIDERED A THREAT TO UPSET THE TEA CART ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POND. Is this de-ja vu all over again or what?

In 1928 the Federal Reserve was openly trying to discourage speculation. In spite of their efforts stocks went on a wild buying spree in spring of 1927 which spilled over into 1928-1929. The markets kept advancing and as the “easy money” became common street talk, the explosive pinnacle appeared over the horizon. This open craziness by the public at large surfaced in 1928 but in May of that year the market had a severe correction (Like May 2006 or will it be May, 2007?)

A common phrase in later 1928 was that the country was experiencing a “profitless prosperity.” Today Wall Street observers and players deem it a profit recession or a “Goldilocks Economy” somehow masking Goldilocks’ terminal illness. The Federal Reserve tried to reassure the public in later 1928 that despite gold exports following a discount rate reduction in fall 1927, our nation still held gold worth over U.S$1 Billion. Period analysts checked for gold exports and found few if any and decided this announcement was public relations talk to reassure the Sheeple. We certainly know all about this today don’t we?

In November of 1928 the stock exchange reported its first of five, six million share trading days. Watch for this kind of similar volume to precede the next blow-off top. From August of 1929 through the fall, this was the beginning of the end as speculation and gambling fever in the markets was virtually uncontrolled. The initial crash lasted two months and was followed by a rally of six more months into the spring of 1930. After that the markets sank into oblivion.

One largely unnoticed fact was the idea these markets had mostly recovered by 1936. This was not the case however, and those that had re-entered with fresh buying in 1934-1935 were smashed for a second time in 1937. That one had to be the mother of all “Dead cat bounces.” Is 1937 to be replicated in 2007? The timing sure looks identical to us. During the past year or so, we have read several remarks from our colleagues that 1934-1936 closely resembles 2004-2006. Can this be true? We have seen some overlay charts for both cycles and they are very close in appearance.

There is a strong uneasiness and undercurrent in the markets; especially among the older experienced traders and New York market guys. We could name some well known guys but are not allowed to do this.

[verwijderd] 24 december 2006 10:55

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

For the most part they choose not to be negative as they don’t want to scare the Sheeple or their investors. In watching their body language accompanied by extraordinary semantic dancing we can tell these boys smell a rat and they are getting very, very nervous.

Traders should shorten their time horizons in our view as volumes and volatility increase. Use trading stops and do not over trade. Buy physical gold and silver and make yourself, your friends and family as secure and protected as possible by being independent of the system. As we used to say in the Boy Scouts; Be Prepared! –Traderrog

[verwijderd] 2 januari 2007 11:18

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Six Consecutive Years

The numbers for 2006 are in, and gold has climbed again, its sixth annual increase in a row. Gold gained 22.8% for the year. Silver also had a banner year, climbing a stunning 45.3%. The table below shows the annual appreciation for both precious metals since this bull market began.

Year-End Gold Price % Appreciation Year-End Silver Price % Appreciation Year-End Crude Oil Price (USD) Year-End Crude Oil Price (gg)
Dec-00 $272.00 $ 4.585 $28.46 3.251
Dec-01 $278.70 2.5% $4.579 -0.1% $19.33 2.160
Dec-02 $347.60 24.7% $4.801 4.85% $29.42 2.637
Dec-03 $415.70 19.6% $5.953 24.0% $32.15 2.397
Dec-04 $437.50 5.2% $6.807 14.3% $43.33 3.076
Dec-05 $517.10 18.2% $8.820 29.6% $59.43 3.606
Dec-06 $644.70 22.8% $12.818 45.3% $61.05 2.989
Average 15.5% 19.7% 2.874

Gold has appreciated 15.5% per annum on average, while silver's annual appreciation during this period is 19.7%. As good as these results are, I don't claim in the above table that the increase in the gold price over recent years is a "gain". In other words, gold is not rising; instead, the dollar is falling.

This distinction may not be immediately obvious because we measure prices in terms of dollars instead of gold. Consequently, gold 'seems' to be going up, while things of all sorts seem to be getting more expensive, i.e., what we call inflation. But inflation is really the debasement - the loss of purchasing power - of the dollar. To show this debasement, I have included in the above table the price of crude oil in terms of dollars as well as goldgrams, which are grams of gold and the unit of account of GoldMoney.

When viewed in terms of gold, we get a different picture of the price of crude oil. One barrel presently costs 2.989gg, which is an inconsequential 0.5% difference from its2.874gg average price over the past seven years. This consistency in gold's purchasing power applies generally to all goods. It does not necessarily apply however, to services, which primarily are a function of labor costs.

Unfortunately, salaries rarely keep up with the real rate of inflation. So people living in countries with debased currencies become poorer by international standards. Today's most extreme example of this point is the ongoing impoverishment of Zimbabwe, once one of Africa's richest countries. The general welfare of people suffers when the currency of the country in which they are living is debased by government mismanagement. There is a marked deterioration of living standards, and this deterioration worsens as the currency debasement gathers speed.

So to re-emphasize this important point, do not be misled by gold's rising exchange rate against the dollar. The dollar is falling; there is no "gain" from gold. Gold is not an investment; it is money.

Gold is not an investment because it is not a wealth producing franchise like a company. In other words, gold is wealth, but it is not wealth-producing unless you invest it.

You cannot purchase any more crude oil with a gram of gold than you could seven years ago. Gold has not generated any 'return' over this period. So what many people call gold's 'rate of return' is in reality, the rate of depreciation of the US dollar.

___________________________________________

Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2007. All rights reserved.
Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com

This material is prepared for general circulation and may not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who reads it. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representations or warranty, express or implied, is made by GoldMoney, its affiliates, representatives or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect the writer's judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. To the full extent permitted by law neither GoldMoney nor any of its affiliates, representatives, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior consent of GoldMoney.

[verwijderd] 4 januari 2007 14:09

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Precious metals to remain bullish as industrial demand offers price support Dorothy Kosich
'04-JAN-07 08:00'

RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) --Global bullion marketer ScotiaMocatta anticipates that investment interest will keep the precious metals outlook bullish this year, while industrial demand and new high-tech applications should provide solid support for prices.

In their January “Metals Matters” report, Canada’s ScotiaMocatta calculates that gold prices could trade up above $700 an ounce this year and even spike over $800/oz. “Overall we expect trading to spend most of 2007 in the $590/oz to $750/oz range, although spikes above $750/oz would not be out of the question.”

“With the rapid expansion in hedge funds, combined with the asset price acceleration over the past few years, the financial markets could be in for a volatile time,” the report acknowledged. “As such we feel the gold will play an increasingly important part in the financial markets in the year ahead.”

Observing that silver experienced a volatile, but generally bullish 2006, ScotiaMocatta forecast more of the same in the year ahead. Although more silver supply is expected, the report asserts “this will likely be offset by a lower level of official sales and scrap, and ongoing high levels of investment demand. In turn, this may well send prices considerably higher.”

Rising demand generated by new industrial applications may also cushion silver against an economic slowdown. Despite a growing surplus of silver these past three years, ScotiaMocatta determined that the “market has been in an exceptionally bullish mood.”

“In a nutshell this is due to the healthy pick-up in investor interest, and we see this continuing in 2007 as the global financial markets are likely to go through some turbulent times. Indeed, while the surplus remains relatively small, investor buying is likely to soak up the surplus. In addition, the level of official sales is expected to decline as governments have, in most cases, depleted their stocks. Also with the central banks looking to diversify out of their dollar holdings, it would not be out of the question to see some official buying of silver, especially as the gold market on its own is too small in this respect.”

ScotiaMocatta assumes that lower metals prices “are expected to spur further investor demand” in silver, which could boost prices to “rechallenge the $14/oz level and move on to test the summer highs at $15.25/oz. In a bullish environment, it would not be hard to see prices spike higher above $16/oz.”

Meanwhile, ScotiaMocatta forecast a less volatile trading pattern for platinum this year will keep prices holding within the $950/oz to $1,400/oz range. They noted that platinum demand is expected to remain robust in 2007 despite a slowdown in economic activity that could hurt car sales in some regions. As the use of catalytic converters is spreading geographically, overall platinum demand is expected to increase 9% this year, according to ScotiaMocatta’s forecasts.

The demand for auto catalysts, which makes up 50% of palladium demand, also foretells a robust outlook for palladium this year. ScotiaMocatta determined that palladium also has “a number of strong industrial applications, many of which are growth markets, which should provide some cushioning against an economic slowdown.” In the meantime, “there is a healthy demand from long-term investors who seem to be quietly soaking up the market’s surplus by buying any weakness.”

Nevertheless, ScotiaMocatta predicted a less bullish year for palladium in 2007 with prices generally trading between $270/oz and $360/oz.

Finally, ScotiaMocatta concluded that “the fundamentals for rhodium remain second to none and even though demand only grew 2% in 2006, the limited supply is keeping the market extremely tight. Indeed, demand from the autocatalyst industry is greater than production, with the balance made up from scrap supplies and stocks.” Meanwhile, the chemical, electrical and glass-making industries also consume 15% of total rhodium demand.

Mineweb always carries details of at least 20 independently written top mining, mining finance, metals and mining sector analysis articles on its homepage as well as a fast news feed to keep you right up to date with what is going on in the mining and metals sectors worldwide. These are continuously updated through the day. Click here to go to Mineweb's home page and access the latest news and comments on developments in mining and metals worldwide.

[verwijderd] 5 januari 2007 09:23

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold — A Central Bank Stampede Ahead
I told you about an interesting article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph on Jan. 1. Yesterday, Evans-Pritchard reported that one of the European central banks had broken ranks and had started to buy modest amounts of gold.This could prove to be one of the most dramatic items of financial news in decades.

Historically, gold has proved the most reliable long-term store of monetary value. As such it accounted, until recently, for a major part of the reserves of most central banks.

However, the discipline imposed by gold was too tough for the major democracies that had engaged in profligate financial policies at home to appeal for votes. This led to a depreciation of their currencies against gold, which was politically embarrassing.

Led by America, the governments of the major democracies agreed some years ago that something had to be done to stifle the effect of the light shone by the monetary torch of gold that made clear to the public the irresponsible finances of their governments.

The result was an agreement by governments to sell-off the gold element of their central bank reserves in order to drive down the price of gold and burn all private holders of "real" money.

This was stated publicly as an international policy to de-monetize gold. In reality, it was to de-politicize gold.

The central bank sales were co-coordinated through the IMF and carried out on a massive scale over a period of time. The aim was to wreck the credibility of gold as a store of monetary value.

Apparently, the American government was very coy about selling off the gold wealth of American citizens that had been accumulated over decades. It is said that the American government sales of gold were placed into the market via the Germans. If true, this act alone speaks volumes as to the morality of such action.

There is still gold in Fort Knox, but it no longer belongs to Americans. Such is the world we live in.

For some years this strategy of selling gold worked, and the currencies of most major democracies continued to drop in value, quietly robbing the holders of their currency. As the currencies were quoted largely against each other and the price of gold fell, the currency depreciation went largely unnoticed.

The central bankers strategy was not merely to bring down the price of gold, but to destroy gold credibility as a monetary asset.

IMF sales of gold were designed to cause the maximum fluctuation in the price of gold. Indeed, the price of gold fluctuated, quite wildly at times, and its credibility was reduced as a store of wealth, at least amongst those who were prepared to believe their governments and mass media.

The whole neat, multi-government con worked well until some non-democratic nations started to pile up large dollar reserves, which they watched depreciate before their eyes. This troubled some of them.

Take for instance China, with some $700 billion of dollar assets. China lost 8.3 percent or some $58 billion dollars in 2006 alone, relative to other currencies (based on the dollar trade weighted index). In the past 5 years China lost about one quarter of the value of its dollar holdings.

However, against gold, China lost a whopping 18 percent, or some $126 billion dollars worth of reserves in 2006. This is more than the total reserves of many of the world’s richest nations. Over the past five years, China has lost more than half its dollar assets, measured against gold.

No wonder Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had to visit China many times in 2006 and had to take Fed Chairman Bernanke with him in December 2006.

The Chinese are sick of the depreciation of their dollar assets and may start to diversify. The major factor holding them back is access to the vast American consumer market for their exports.

This problem has been faced by every central bank and indeed individual domestic holder of dollars and international holder of Eurodollars.

People, including central banks and corporations, have lost a great deal and have sought to diversify out of dollars into the euro. This has placed further massive downward pressure on the dollar.

The problem is that the holders of dollars who sold dollars, to avoid depreciation, and invested in euros have seen strong profits. But these have been on paper only.

As the euro has risen greatly in price, the essential export products of Euroland (the EU, less the UK, Denmark and Sweden) have been priced out of many of their lucrative worldwide markets. The countries and exporting companies of Euroland are suffering badly.

In addition, the relatively strong euro has resulted in great price increases in Euroland, making the euro very unpopular at grass roots, which are now beginning to trade "illegally" in their old (pre-Euro) currencies like the French franc and Italian lira.

The governments of France, Italy, Greece and Spain have openly criticized the euro. Things have become so bad that some of their politicians have called for their governments to withdraw from the euro.

In short, the euro, which was founded solely on politics, is being threatened from within. We have long forecast this situation, but are somewhat surprised that it has happened so quickly.

[Editor’s Note: Sir John Templeton: Avoid U.S. dollars!]

Just think to yourself. If people sell dollars out of fear of depreciation and buy euros, which they now see as threatened by total collapse, where else can they go, in size, but into gold?

Evans-Pritchard reports on rumors that the central bank of Italy has decided to break the ranks not only of the (anti-gold) IMF, but also of their part owned, far stricter European Central Bank (ECB) and buy "modest" amounts of gold!

If true, this should strike our readers as a shattering event for the financial world that we have known for the past decade or so.

For, if a major central bank (doubtless authorized by its government) has decided to cut and run from both the U.S. dollar and from the euro and go for gold, how long before others follow?

We believe that the stage is now set for a stampede not just out of dollars into euros, which is bad enough, but into gold.

Such a stampede would threaten many world markets and cause grave financial, economic, and political concern worldwide.

With this set against, let’s say, an American / Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran in 2007/8, we see gold now set for an explosion in price.

It will be an explosion that will benefit our readers who will have accumulated gold over for some time.

However, unlike central banks, our private readers’ main concern will be how to hold onto their gold in the face of government confiscation!

[verwijderd] 8 januari 2007 21:00

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

The Great Silver Mystery (…and the greatest secret of all time!)Dear Silver Enthusiast…

Let me start off by saying that what I am going to postulate should not in any way be considered fact…because I am not in possession of proof. I am merely postulating on where all the mystery silver comes from to be sold on the physical silver market. Since the early 2000’s almost every serious silver analyst has been pounding the table that there is no above ground silver available and it is the "buy of a lifetime". But at the same time, silver prices never seem to live up to their expectation. Of course, anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that the COMEX and LME silver markets are rigged by a powerful cabal of bankers (and others) that seem to be above the law (or more likely, in collusion with the law), but at the end of the day physical silver must be delivered for industrial applications and investors taking possession. So where does it all come from? ….I think I may have stumbled upon the answer!

After a grueling day of watching another COMEX silver rigging operation in late December, I turned on the History Channel for some mindless entertainment. The program that was running was called "Lost Worlds – Secret Cities of the A-Bomb" (you can buy it here (http://store.aetv.com/html/product/index.jhtml?id=76496). It was an investigative piece on the Manhattan Project focusing on the Top Secret city that was built in Oakridge, TN and a facility called Y-12. The program was interesting to me, but one part specifically made me jump up out of my seat and run to my computer to find out what it was all about.

During WWII, in order for the scientists to enrich enough Uranium for the A-bomb they had to make the largest electro magnet ever built. It would be called a Calutron and according to the narrator, they needed 14,700 tons of copper wiring which they claim was not available at the time due to war shortages. Instead of copper they went to the US Treasury and "borrowed" 14,700 TONS OF SILVER! That’s about 470,000,000 ounces that were taken from the US vaults, made into silver wire, and installed into the greatest secret project in the history of the world! Let’s call that "deep storage silver" because, theoretically, the calutrons could be removed and the silver melted back into bars. As a matter of fact, according to the program and government statements, that is what was done in 1954.

Now we get into the conspiracy side. The government claimed back then that there was a new gaseous way to enrich plutonium, which there was, and the Calutrons were not needed. But wait! There are many articles on the internet showing that the Calutrons were in full operation until the 1990’s and in a March 1999 news release Oakridge Laboratories said they got an order from the DOE to finally "retire" the calutrons (http://www.ornl.gov/info/reporter/no1/calutron.htm)

Here’s where my mind runs with this:

1) There was no reason to "give back" the silver in 1954 because it would just sit in a vault and the enriched uranium was the most important item in the world to the new nuclear super power. According to the program, enriched uranium was very difficult to mass produce and the calutrons were the best at it.

2) The US could retrieve the silver when it was needed it by dismantling the calutrons.

3) The calutrons ran for 50 years without any technological obsolescence (see ORNL article).

4) In the mid 1990’s something changed such that the US had to a) shutdown the calutrons for three years b) bring them back on line for a few years c) then completely dismantle them by order of the DOE.

5) The mid 1990’s corresponds directly with the "strong dollar policy" (fixing of the commodity markets by Greenspan, Clinton, Rubin etc.) and the late 1990’s huge silver shipments to the UK to suppress the physical silver market on the LME.

6) The powers in charge of the Manhattan Project are so intertwined with the banking cabal, the American "shadow government" and the current administration it is not hard to make the necessary connections.

My Conclusions:

I believe that 470 million oz of "un-disclosed" silver was brought into the physical market in the mid 1990’s to suppress the silver market. This silver was once was an essential secret component of the Manhattan Project magnets used to enrich uranium for the US nuclear program. I also believe that the significance of this occurrence can not be underestimated because it means the powers that control the rigging of the silver market were so desperate for physical metal in the 1990’s that a strategic military installation had to be dismantled to retrieve this "deep storage" silver. I contend that over the past 8-10 years that this silver was taken off the market by industrial and investment users such that the silver ETF had to be established (using the silver shanghaied from Buffett to save General Re) in order to lease additional paper and divert huge flows of institutional money into a black hole of non-backed paper silver (SLV). I also believe the 100 million oz of physical silver in the ETF was turned into paper silver by last December and "they" had to add another 20 million of physical to continue the scam for a few more months until that runs out.

Those are my speculations and although I have no idea if I am right, it sure can explain where all the "mystery silver" came from over the past 10 years.
Signed,

A anonymous silver lover!

PS – I am posting this as anonymous because if you follow the trail of people connected with the Manhattan Project you may suffer the same fate as Kennedy!

[verwijderd] 10 januari 2007 07:36

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Got Gold Report - Gold, Silver Bears Hopeful, Bargain Hunters Too

By Gene Arensberg
09 Jan 2007 at 08:52 AM

HOUSTON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Short term charts for gold, silver and mining shares have bears salivating over the prospects of prime roasted precious metals bull meat, medium rare with horseradish and a little parsley. Short term technical signals broke down during the first week back to work in three for many trading veterans, helped along by some bullish U.S. dollar news and the urge to book profits accumulated by PM investors last year early this year.

Short term charts are interesting and useful. They can signal important and dramatic changes about to occur, but they are also not exactly fool proof and anyone that relies solely on a short term chart for investing decisions is probably often frustrated, unless they are day traders of course.

A conflict between short term charts and longer term charts is not unusual. It happens frequently in fact. Long term or secular bull markets are comprised of lots of bumps and dips. The bumps and dips just generally end up at higher points on long term graphs in bull markets.

Lees verder met grafieken dit artikel
www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...

[verwijderd] 11 januari 2007 15:23

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Dow vs. Gold by Gary North

Ian McAvity is a GOM. A GOM is a Grand Old Man. When you’re a young hot-shot, you don’t plan on becoming a GOM. You plan on remaining a youthful hot shot. With a few exceptions, such as Warren Buffett, youthful hot shots become whiz kids emeriti. The problem is, the ones who eventually do become GOMs are not recognized as hot shots until they are middle-aged, decades after people should have bought their holding companies’ stocks and held onto them, no matter what.

McAvity is a Canadian investment newsletter publisher. His specialty is charts – not just the usual lines-all-over-the-page charts, but clear, insightful charts. He publishes Deliberations, which doesn’t have a website, doesn’t accept credit cards, and (as far as I can remember) doesn’t send out "subscribe now" mailing packages. How it survives, I don’t know. It’s a mystery.

He is not always bullish on gold, which is good for his subscribers, but he has followed gold for a long time. I have known him for over 25 years.

In the 2007 forecast issue of Deliberations, he presented a chart. If there were a link on-line, I would provide it. The chart traced the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold, beginning in 1900.

McAvity describes the history of the Dow/gold ratio.

In August 1929, your grandfather sold one unit of the Dow and bought 18 ounces of gold. Three years later, when the Dow/gold ratio bottomed at 2:1, he sold 18 ounces and bought 9 units of the Dow.
Those 9 units reached another peak in 1966 when the ratio hit 28:1. Now your father exchanged those 9 Dow units for 252 ounces of gold.

In January 1980, the ratio got to an almost unprecedented 1:1 ratio, so he converted those 252 ounces of gold into 252 units of the Dow.

Come 1999 with the ratio at an unprecedented 43.85 to 1 level, the prudent family converted those 252 units of the Dow into 11,050 ounces of gold!

No trades were based on the price of gold or the level of the Dow . . . it’s just a simple question of how many ounces is the Dow trading for in the market.

This little fictional fable started with 1 unit of the Dow at a peak in 1929. Two tops, two bottoms, and 5 trades later it’s 11,050 ounces of gold, in 70 years.

Consider what took place from 1900 to 1999. There was a world war, a post-war boom, a decade-long depression, price deflation, another world war, the international post-war boom, multiple smaller regional wars, price inflation, the Cold War, and all of the technological wonders that have transformed our lives. Starting with under two ounces of gold in 1900, a family winds up with over 11,000 ounces in 1999 – if the family’s asset manager had perfect timing and there had been no income taxes.

Today, a unit of the Dow costs about 20 ounces. This is down from 44 ounces in early 2000. McAvity offers his analysis as to what we should expect in the future regarding the Dow/gold ratio.

Lower peaks and a lower low in the past six years confirms a major trend reversal and suggests we are headed towards the other extreme in the years to come.

There are some forecasters who think the ratio will return to 1:1, with the number at 3,000. Richard Russell, another GOM, has suggested this possibility. McAvity says he expects a less catastrophic ratio, something in the range of 5:1.

RECESSION

Recessions push down the price of gold and the price of stocks. So, there are times when it is better to be in CD’s or bonds than to be in stocks or gold. There is more to profits than trading gold against the Dow. But McAvity’s point is well taken. Extremes in the Dow/gold ratio offer profit opportunities. It would seem to be wiser to be in gold than in stocks today, especially when dividends are barely sufficient to pay for index mutual fund management fees.

Gold’s price is gyrating wildly. It hit $725 on May 12. It fell back to $640 by May 26. It went below $570 in June. It rebounded to $660 on July 14. It was back to $575 on September 15. It was at $650 on December 1. It is now below $610.

Meanwhile, the stock market has been rising. The bulls are everywhere. While 1999’s talk of "Dow 36,000" is long gone, there is a great deal of optimism.

Yet the yield curve remains inverted.

You can make a better return on your money by investing in low-risk 90-day Treasury bills than in inflation-threatened 30-year T-bonds. Why are bond investors, who usually have far more money than stock investors, convinced that they should compete against each other, bidding the price of T-bonds above T-bills? (Price and interest rate are inverse in the credit markets.)

There is a major conflict of views going on today. On one side are creditors. On the other side are stock investors.

Bond investors are convinced that it makes economic sense to buy T-bonds that pay less interest than 90-day T-bills. They presumably expect the short-term rate to fall below the long-term rate. They are locking in their rate of return by purchasing T-bonds rather than T-bills, which must be rolled over at a new rate every 90 days. This interest-rate differential is a traditional indicator of a looming recession. Creditors have concluded that an economic slowdown or even a recession will reduce the demand for short-term debt. This will lower the interest rate for T-bills.

Stock investors disagree with bond investors. They see no recession on the horizon. Recessions are bad for stocks. Corporate profits fall, red ink flows, and the future value of shares looks grim.

When recession looms, it is safer to sell shares and buy T-bills or T-bonds. Then wait for share prices to fall. In tax-deferred retirement funds, this is clearly the safest plan, since the investor defers all taxes on portfolio profits. The investors are not penalized by the government for selling shares and buying bonds.

Shares remain high today. This tells me that stock market optimism remains high.

In 2000, the typical stock market investor believed that 15% per annum gains are normal. They aren’t normal. They are wildly abnormal. That optimism remains, though at a muted level, given the fact that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is below its peak in 2000. The S&P 500, which was at 1550 in early 2000, would be at 4100 today if the market had sustained a 15% return. Yet the hopelessly naïve investors of 2000 have not yet figured out that their hopes and dreams have been nullified by seven lean years of 0% return. What was naïve faith in getting rich back in 2000 has been replaced by naïve faith in getting even over the next seven years.

It isn’t going to happen.

The bond market is screaming this, but stock market investors refuse to listen. "This time, it’s different," they tell themselves. "We can make up the losses of 2000–2006 by staying in stocks."

No, they can’t. They won’t. The early boomers reach retirement age next year: age 62. While most of the boomers who actually own stocks are unlikely to retire at 62, or even 65 – they can’t afford to – they are not being replaced by a generation of dedicated savers. Eventually, they will be forced by old age to retire. They will have to sell their shares. To whom? At what price?

The boomers with stocks in their retirement portfolio will hang onto their jobs as long as they can. They are in professions that let them stay on the job. They are not like Joe Lunchbucket, who believed from day one that Social Security and his company’s p

[verwijderd] 11 januari 2007 15:31

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

The boomers with stocks in their retirement portfolio will hang onto their jobs as long as they can. They are in professions that let them stay on the job. They are not like Joe Lunchbucket, who believed from day one that Social Security and his company’s pension plan would protect his post-retirement lifestyle. Joe is tired. He has few alternative career opportunities. He will retire whenever he can. But he will not sell his shares. He has none to sell.

JOE CAN STILL VOTE

When Joe retires, he will demand an ever-increasing flow of government subsidies. We now have a Democrat-controlled Congress. The pressure to pass laws that help the poor, especially retirees, will be constant. The President will find it difficult to veto such spending. He has vetoed only one piece of legislation in six years: the stem cell research bill. There will surely be no bills rolling back retirement subsidies.

Year by year, the ranks of retirees will swell. Year by year, there will be new political pressure to increase payments and benefits.

This will have to be paid for. With what? Higher taxes on the rich? That will reduce investment and slow the economy. The deficit will get larger.

Eventually, the Federal Reserve will be forced to buy up the debt that foreign central banks will no longer purchase and that American investors cannot afford. That means long-run price inflation. This will push up the built-in cost of living adjustment in Social Security.

Long-run price inflation means a rising price of gold. This probably will not happen in 2007, unless Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran then retaliates by cutting oil production and by selling its oil for euros rather than only dollars, as is the case today.

CONCLUSION

We are in pre-recession mode today. Bond investors understand this. Stock market investors don’t. Neither do gold and silver investors.

The threat of recession to equities – ownership shares – is universal. There is much less threat to credit instruments: CD’s and bonds.

This time it may be different. But the inverted yield curve reveals that the smartest investors think it won’t be different.

January 10, 2007

Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit www.garynorth.com. He is also the author of a free 19-volume series, An Economic Commentary on the Bible.

[verwijderd] 15 januari 2007 15:16

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

It's Looking More Like a Major Turning Point
Voor de grafieken lees goldmoney.com/en/commentary-print.html

On Friday, January 5th gold dropped nearly $20 while silver slid 60c. Those huge drops had all the earmarks of a selling climax, and I said so at the time. See my January 5th and 11th interviews with Jim Puplava, which were posted by him on January 6th and 13th.

A selling climax is easier to identify after the fact than when you are in it. But, it is important to try identifying them when they occur because they are important market features. A selling climax denotes a major turning point that marks the end of downtrends or corrections.

It is now one week after the January 5th collapse, and the evidence continues to build that it was indeed a selling climax. Most important is the big jump in gold and silver this past Friday. Also, as Bill Murphy reports in his latest Midas commentary:

"The Commitment of Traders gold report was nothing less than breathtaking and represents one of the largest changes of positions I can recall. Lately, this report has been a non-event. Not this time...

The large specs decreased longs by 15,482 contacts and increased shorts by 9,533.
The commercials increased longs by 13,680 and decreased shorts by 17,093 contracts.
The small specs decreased longs by 3,760 contracts and increased shorts by 1,998."
Bill then goes on to say: "The Gold Cartel has done its thing AGAIN, fleecing numerous longs out of the market." I wholeheartedly agree. I describe how the gold cartel does this in a recent commentary posted on GoldSeek.

Bill concludes: "With the gold open interest where it is, we have a set up to flush out many more spec shorts, while, as the market moves up, spec longs pour in. The fundamental and technical set up for both gold and silver could not be better." Again I wholeheartedly agree.

The evidence is building and taken together suggests that gold and silver's test of major support on January 5th was successful, and as a consequence, the lows reached that day will prove to be a major turning point.

This past Friday's price jump was the result of two things. First, the ever-vigilant shorts, who are prepared to turn on a dime to protect their capital, are already running for cover. Second, the consolidation since the May highs in gold and silver have shaken out a lot of investors, and the panic buying on Friday indicates that they are trying to re-establish their long positions.

All of this market action bodes well for the future. However, we are not out of the woods yet, as we can see on the following charts.

The above charts show that the long-term uptrends in gold and silver are intact. In fact, both of these charts remain very bullish, but there is never any guarantee when it comes to markets. We could see another short-term dip (or worse). So for now, all we can do is let gold and silver each tell its own story. Here's what to watch for. Gold and silver need to climb above their previous highs, which are at circa $435 and $12.82 respectively. When they finally do achieve this goal, it will be another important step signaling that the metals are ready to climb higher.

Silver is clearly the more bullish of the two charts. As a result, look for silver to continue outperforming, which means that I expect the gold/silver ratio will continue falling.

There is one other chart that I would like to share. It's the US Dollar Index, which shows that the dollar has bounced into considerable overhead resistance.

Can central banks sufficiently intervene with enough fire power to push the Dollar Index through overhead resistance? Or is this the dollar's last hurrah? Time will tell, but I think it is the latter. Nothing has changed to make the dollar a better bet than it was two weeks ago.

Now, do not go out and bet the ranch on my comments above. Markets - indeed, the future - are unpredictable. All we can do is evaluate the underlying fundamental factors for a market, and then ride with the trend.

The dollar's fundamentals are bearish, as is its long-term trend. Though it has had a short-term bounce, the Dollar Index is hitting overhead resistance, so the odds favor a resumption of its long-term downtrend.

The underlying factors driving gold and silver remain bullish, and its long-term trend is pointing higher. And now their short-term downtrends are in the process of turning higher too.

When the precious metals confirm the turnaround by clearing previous resistance levels, I expect gold and silver to begin new short-term uptrends that will carry them both to new multi-decade highs, and perhaps even more importantly, confirm that their low price for this year has already been made.

___________________________________________

Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2007. All rights reserved.
Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com

[verwijderd] 17 januari 2007 10:20

[verwijderd]

Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001
Aanbevelingen

Ontvangen: 0

Gegeven: 0
Aantal posts: 0

Gold: a potential mania
Bank Credit Analyst finds that the outlook for gold bullion rests on four pillars; plus info on top stocks.

Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wed, 17 Jan 2007 08:00 | © Moneyweb Holdings Limited, 1997-2006

The Bank Credit Analyst (BCA) has identified four pillars cementing the case for a long-term bull market in gold bullion. Gold bugs will be relieved by the finding that the long-term uptrend in gold prices remains intact; the caveat is that investors should wait before buying.

BCA Research identifies as the first pillar global liquidity settings, which are likely to remain “plentiful because inflation will stay low”. Inflation rate profiles differ across the world, but the latterly feared crude oil price shock appears to have receded. In the world’s biggest economy, the US, the inflation profile could now even be on the path to returning to disinflation.

Core US consumer price inflation was static in November, reinforcing the likelihood that threats and worries over inflation are now on the backburner. The surge in inflation early in 2006 had completely lost momentum, not least on a slowing US economy. Retailing, which comprises around 50% of the US’s CPI basket, is now experiencing severe disinflation, as retailers slash prices to prop up demand.

The second pillar identified by BCA Research is simply that investor demand for gold will rise in response to higher gold prices, after an extended bear market. While this may sound counterintuitive, the profile of the dollar gold price since early in 2002, when the latest bull market set in, closely shadows the progression of the dollar gold price during the 1970s, the previous gold bull market. The latter developed into a very big bull market indeed, one that many investors refuse to forget.

The third pillar is identified as central bank transactions in gold bullion; this “could take time to re-emerge after the wave of liquidation in recent years”. Central banks, mindful of geopolitical risk and the persistent dollar bear market, have taken to increasing and diversifying foreign reserves. For a number of countries, gold is a natural choice as an additional or increased component of national foreign reserves.

The fourth pillar is seen as Chinese and Indian private sector gold demand; this should improve as the wealth and incomes of individuals in those countries continue to rise. Chinese and Indian private sector buyers have long been major private sector buyers of gold bullion.

A number of experts offer further factors in describing the possible forward profile of gold bullion prices. Stephen D. Walker, a director of global mining research at RBC Capital Markets, argues that crude oil prices remain “an important catalyst for gold, likely reflecting geopolitical risk rather than an inflation concern. We believe oil will remain a key driver although any weakness in gold price would be offset by strong physical demand from India, the Middle East and Asia”.

As for gold equities, RBCCM points to current offerings of 30% to 50% upside to its target prices for various stocks. Among Tier I producers, RBCCM attaches “outperform” recommendations to Goldcorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Freeport; “sector perform” rankings to Harmony, Newcrest, Barrick, Kinross (pro forma) and Newmont, while Gold Fields is rated as “underperform”.
Among Tier II producers, Centerra is rated as “top pick”, while IAMGOLD and Lihir are ranked as “outperform”; “sector performance” is seen for Bema, Agnico-Eagle, Yamana, Randgold Resources, Western Areas; Meridian Gold is ranked as “underperform”.

Among Tier III gold diggers, “outperform” rankings go to Hecla, Jaguar, and Perseverance; “sector perform” recommendations attach to Eldorado, Alamos, High River Gold, while “underperform” rankings are accorded Celtic, Oxus and Peter Hambro Mining.

Among emerging gold diggers, Anatolia is seen as top pick; “outperform” recommendations go to Axmin, Banro, European Goldfields, Gabriel, Greystar, Moto Gold; “sector performance” is seen for NovaGold, International Minerals, and Ballarat Goldfields, while Bendigo Mining is ranked “underperform”.

Then of course there is the value of the dollar. Sluggish US economic growth in the next few quarters is likely to give disinflation further traction, and bring the country’s key core inflation rates back into the comfort zone (2% or less) of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. This would leave policymakers leeway to cut interest rates in 2007, and while this would stimulate economic activity in the US, it would also undermine the value of the dollar, traditionally a stimulus for higher dollar commodity prices.

The Federal Reserve raised its core interest rate to 5¼% on December 12, stating that while recent indicators had been mixed, “the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace on balance over coming quarters”.

According to guru investor Bill Gross, MD of Pimco, the world’s biggest bond fund, the Federal Reserve is likely to respond to stimuli “sometime within the next six months with a series of cuts intended to re-stimulate growth . . . “ PIMCO is looking for the core Federal Reserve interest rate to be at 4¼% by December 2007.

In conclusion, BCA Research states that in the near term, “gold prices are vulnerable to cyclical headwinds and could correct further”. As such, significant pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities.

Forum	# Topics	# Posts
Aalberts	466	7.012
AB InBev	2	5.495
Abionyx Pharma	2	29
Ablynx	43	13.356
ABN AMRO	1.582	51.548
ABO-Group	1	22
Acacia Pharma	9	24.692
Accell Group	151	4.132
Accentis	2	264
Accsys Technologies	23	10.589
ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES PLC	218	11.686
Ackermans & van Haaren	1	188
ADMA Biologics	1	34
Adomos	1	126
AdUX	2	457
Adyen	14	17.732
Aedifica	3	903
Aegon	3.258	322.688
AFC Ajax	538	7.087
Affimed NV	2	6.295
ageas	5.844	109.887
Agfa-Gevaert	14	2.049
Ahold	3.538	74.331
Air France - KLM	1.025	35.024
AIRBUS	1	11
Airspray	511	1.258
Akka Technologies	1	18
AkzoNobel	467	13.036
Alfen	16	24.701
Allfunds Group	4	1.469
Almunda Professionals (vh Novisource)	651	4.251
Alpha Pro Tech	1	17
Alphabet Inc.	1	405
Altice	106	51.198
Alumexx ((Voorheen Phelix (voorheen Inverko))	8.486	114.821
AM	228	684
Amarin Corporation	1	133
Amerikaanse aandelen	3.836	242.941
AMG	971	133.211
AMS	3	73
Amsterdam Commodities	305	6.687
AMT Holding	199	7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp	2	491
Antonov	22.632	153.605
Aperam	92	14.975
Apollo Alternative Assets	1	17
Apple	5	381
Arcadis	252	8.767
Arcelor Mittal	2.033	320.667
Archos	1	1
Arcona Property Fund	1	286
arGEN-X	17	10.296
Aroundtown SA	1	219
Arrowhead Research	5	9.731
Ascencio	1	26
ASIT biotech	2	697
ASMI	4.108	39.089
ASML	1.766	106.525
ASR Nederland	21	4.452
ATAI Life Sciences	1	7
Atenor Group	1	485
Athlon Group	121	176
Atrium European Real Estate	2	199
Auplata	1	55
Avantium	32	13.647
Axsome Therapeutics	1	177
Azelis Group	1	64
Azerion	7	3.392

Edelmetalen Terug naar discussie overzicht

Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

Neem deel aan de discussie

Direct naar Forum

Zoek alfabetisch op forum

Gesponsorde links

Macro & Bedrijfsagenda

17 februari

18 februari