Edelmetalen Terug naar discussie overzicht

Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 18 april 2007 13:34

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   Howdy,
   
   The "Treasury" in dit artikel is die van the U.K., en niet die van de U.S.A.
   
   Het is belangrijk dit te benadrukken, aangezien normaal gesproken, beleggers aannemen, dat men the USA treasury bedoelt, als men het heeft over
   
   "THE Treasury".
   
   Houdoe,
   
   >--:-)-->
2. [verwijderd] 19 april 2007 19:50

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   Central Banks Scraping the Bottom of the Gold Barrel Posted on Apr 19th, 2007
   
   Tim Iacono submits: After months of steady decline for the U.S. Dollar when measured against other floating currencies, the battle against the world's oldest currency is now escalating.
   
   It is a battle for the hearts and minds of much of the world's population as an alternative to the dollar is sought - choose another country's paper money or go with the world's oldest money.
   
   In years past, central bank selling of gold could always be relied upon to stop the flight away from paper money - when investors swapped their fiat money for gold bars, then saw the price of the metal drop as central bank bullion was dumped onto commodity exchanges, the metal's price would plummet and a lesson was learned.
   
   This has gone on for decades, but with more central banks in developing economies now buying bullion and with organizations such Germany's Bundesbank balking at any future sales (apparently not having forgotten the lessons of their Weimar days 84 years ago), this may be coming to an end.
   
   For years, commodity bull Jim Rogers has stated that the reason he views the yellow metal as just another commodity is because the world's central banks have too much of the stuff - they can continue to sell into the market to depress the price for many years.
   
   Well, that may no longer be the case.
   
   The current year of the European Central Bank Gold Sale Agreement allowing the sale of 500 tonnes looks like it will come up short again, this year by about 150 tonnes. Recent-seller France is rumored to be about done with what they had planned to unload and no other big sellers are on the horizon.
   
   France is still number four on the list of official gold reserves, behind the U.S., Germany, and the IMF and with no real possibility of sales from the U.S., attention has been increasingly turned to the IMF stash, purportedly a convenient way for them to balance their books.
   
   The proposed sale of 400 tonnes has been supported by the U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer and future prime minister Gordon Brown after being proposed earlier in the year.
   
   UK's Brown Sees More Support For IMF Gold Sales
   Speaking at a press conference after a meeting of the Fund's International Monetary and Financial Committee, Brown said more countries were coming into line with plans to sell off some of the IMF's gold.
   
   "What I found encouraging today was that there are countries which previously had not been prepared to consider gold sales but were prepared to do so now," Brown said, adding there was "no doubt" that gold sales were potentially part of the IMF's likely future financing.
   ...
   Despite the more positive sentiment towards IMF gold sales, the plan is likely to meet some opposition from countries such as the U.S. and Germany, as well major gold-producing nations fearful of a fall in the commodity's price.
   
   Finance minister Koji Omi of Japan now supports the plan also, once again demonstrating the profound lack of both independence and appreciation for history on the part of the Bank of Japan.
   
   Japan's Omi Recommends IMF Sell Gold Reserves
   "Japan has told (the committee): 'Why not sell gold?'" Finance Minister Koji Omi told reporters after attending the International Monetary and Finance Committee's spring meeting in Washington.
   
   Omi's proposal is in line with Japan's long-held stance as well as recommendations made earlier this year by a high-level panel at the IMF. In late January, the panel, chaired by Andrew Crockett, president of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), urged the fund to sell some of its vast gold reserves and invest the proceeds to raise income.
   
   Meanwhile, the issue of Gordon Brown's 1999 sale of half the Bank of England's gold reserves has led some to believe that the other half may not still be in the bank's vaults.
   
   Fears over Treasury losing control of gold left in its vaults
   As Gordon Brown prepares for a grilling in the Commons over his fire-sale auction of Britain's gold at the bottom of the market, concern is mounting that the Treasury may have lost control over the small amount still left in its vaults.
   
   Peter Hambro, head of Britain's largest pure gold mining company, said he believed the Bank of England may have leased out its bullion to earn extra yield.
   
   "The real risk is that the Treasury has lent out the remainder of the gold. It is very important to know whether the bank's gold lending is on a secured basis," he said. The concern is that counter-parties could default in a crisis such as the LTCM-Ashanti affair in 1998.
   
   "The whole point of gold is that it's not somebody else's paper currency. It's the stuff that keeps you alive when everything else goes wrong," he said.
   
   Well, if there's nothing left in the vaults at the Bank of England, let's just hope that everything else doesn't go wrong.
   
   Eight years after-the-fact, everything seems to have been wrong with Gordon Brown's gold sales as recounted in this comprehensive story that appeared prominently in The Times (a commenter suggested "Goldflinger" would be more appropriate for the title).
   
   Goldfinger Brown’s £2 billion blunder in the bullion market
   GATHERED around a table in one of the Bank of England’s grand meeting rooms, the select group of Britain’s top gold traders could not believe what they were being told.
   
   Gordon Brown had decided to sell off more than half of the country’s centuries-old gold reserves and the chancellor was intending to announce his plan later that day.
   
   It was May 1999 and the gold price had stagnated for much of the decade. The traders present — including senior executives from at least two big investment banks — warned that Brown, who was not at the meeting, could barely have chosen a worse moment.
   
   In the room, just behind the governor’s main office, they cautioned that gold traditionally moved in decades-long cycles and that the price was likely to increase. They added that even if the sale were to go ahead, the timings and amounts should not be announced, as the gold price would plunge.
   
   Well, a plunging gold price was perhaps just what was intended. Gold dealers now call this period the "Brown Bottom", and at $256 per ounce it marked the beginning of the eight-year ascent in price to near $700 today.
   
   Whatever the motivation for the sale, having cost the UK Treasury over $4 billion, this is not something that is easily forgotten, especially in light of the Chancellor's enthusiasm for IMF gold sales.
   
   As for the gold laying around in Fort Knox, you never hear a peep about that. Last audited in the 1970s, it is as if no one knows and no one cares whether the stuff is still there.
   
   That will likely change someday.
   
   For now, it's more than a little amusing to see the powerful bankers of the world scrambling to find someone willing to part with some of their reserves so as not to embarrass the whole lot of them as the gold price soars during an era of "low inflation".
   
3. [verwijderd] 23 april 2007 17:45

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   Gold is Ready to Break Important Records
   
   Gold's record high was reached when it popped above $850 in January 1980. That fact is well known. What is less well known is that gold traded at that price for only a few seconds and that a sharp price drop occurred after this peak, which clearly marks the January 1980 high to be a classic 'blow-off' top.
   
   The day it reached that record price, gold actually closed far below at $825.50, which is its all-time closing high. The next day gold literally collapsed, closing at $682.
   
   In fact, gold has closed above $800 on only 3 days - the day of the blow-off peak and the 2 days before. In its entire history, gold has closed in the $700s on only 12 days, of which 3 were in May 2006.
   
   It is even more startling to look at gold's weekly closes. In its entire history, only once has gold closed the end of a week above $800. What's even more surprising is that only once has gold had a weekly close in the $700s, and that one occurred in May 2006.
   
   I consider the weekly closing price of any asset to be most important. Within any week prices can be easily buffeted up and down by day traders and scalpers, unwilling to make a long-term commitment with their money. While these traders make a useful contribution to a market by providing liquidity, the distortion in prices caused by their buying and selling when they put their money into action may mask the true underlying value of an asset as well as add volatility that may shake-out weak hands. It is important to note that these short-term traders will rarely carry a position over a weekend when the markets are closed and they are unable to change their position until Monday's open. So because this 'hot' money is out of the market by the end of the week, the weekly closing price becomes an important measure of overall supply and demand.
   
   Gold closed this past week at $692, its fourth highest ever weekly close. Can an all-time weekly closing high be far behind? I don't think so. I think one is right around the corner.
   
   Gold is in a major bull market. The fundamental factors that are driving it higher remain very bullish. Gold's technical factors also continue to be very bullish. But why do I think the $715 area at which gold topped last May will not stop gold this time around?
   
   No one of course knows the future, so I might be proven wrong. But I am sticking my neck out by saying that I expect gold to blow through $715 this time. I include the words "this time" on purpose.
   
   I first identified the $715 level to be an important resistance point even before gold reached that price in May 2006. In my April 16, 2006 alert I said: "Gold hurdled over barriers 1-3, and barrier #4 waits above at $715." A month later gold was then subsequently turned back from that $715 level. I reproduce below the same chart from that April 2006 alert, updated to the present.
   
   What's clear from the above chart is that gold is again rapidly approaching the $715 level and its May 2006 weekly high close. Importantly, gold is in a very strong technical position.
   
   These points are of course also well known to the gold cartel, which for several years has been preventing gold from trading in a free and unfettered market, as has been so capably and repeatedly demonstrated by the Gold-Anti Trust Action Committee. Given the importance of the $715 level, it is therefore no wonder that the gold cartel's efforts to cap the gold price in recent weeks have become more frantic and therefore so obvious, for example, the surges in Comex open interest on only a relatively small price rise, the late-in-the-day sell-offs after the physical gold market in London closes, and the blatant attempts to 'paint-the-tape' in the thin trading conditions after New York closes and before London opens. But don't worry here too much about the gold cartel.
   
   The gold cartel is no doubt a nemesis, but it is not all powerful. It cannot forever hold back the flood of people rushing out of the dollar and other fiat currency into the safety and security of real, physical gold.
   
   Consequently, I expect the gold cartel to retreat here, only to continue its capping efforts at a higher gold price. What price will that be? I expect that the gold cartel will probably retreat to around $750 per ounce, i.e., above $24 per goldgram. But it could end up being a lot higher.
   
   In any case, get ready. It looks to me that over the coming weeks, gold is about to set some important new records.
   
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   
   Published by GoldMoney
   Copyright © 2007. All rights reserved.
   Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com
   
4. [verwijderd] 26 april 2007 15:41

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   GOLD & SILVER ANALYSIS MIX OF HISTORIC DRIVERS, GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS NBF revises 2007 gold price forecast to $675/oz, silver to $13.50/oz Toronto’s National Bank Financial Wednesday revised its gold and silver price forecasts upward, citing a “positive mix of historic price drivers and supportive gold market fundamentals.”
   
   Author: Dorothy Kosich Posted:Thursday,26 Apr 2007
   RENO, NV -
   
   Toronto's National Bank Financial (NBF) metals analysts Wednesday revised their average gold price forecasts upward from $650/oz to $675/oz in 2007 and from $625/oz to $675/oz in 2008, while adjusting the silver price to reflect a 50:1 ratio with the gold price.
   
   New commodity silver price forecasts also were adjusted higher from $13/oz to $13.50/oz this year and from $12.50/oz to $13.50/oz in 2008. The NBF long-term commodity forecasts were revised from $500/oz to $525/oz for gold, while silver was adjusted from $10/oz to $10.50/oz.
   
   In a revised gold price forecast published Wednesday, NBF metals analyst Tanya Jakusconek and associates Joanne van Balegooie and Farooq Hamed said their outlook "is predicated on a positive mix of historic price drivers and supportive gold market fundamentals."
   
   Their outlook for the commodity is based on a weighting of four key elements listed in order of the impact on the gold price:
   
   •1) A continued decline in the U.S. will provide the main direction for bullion in 2007. This is based on a belief that the dollar will continue to be under pressure on soft economic data, its continuing struggle with twin deficits and continued rate hikes at the European Central Bank versus U.S. Federal Reserves rates easing in the third quarter.
   
   •2) Gold and oil prices show a strong correlation and continue to move in tandem this year. "Investors continue to be concerned about high energy prices and inflationary pressures and part of the diversification into gold is seen as hedging against this perceived threat," according to the analysts, who assigned a 20% weighting to oil as the secondary driver to the gold price.
   
   •3) Low Real Interest Rates: "...We expect real rates, which have historically been a tertiary drive of gold prices to decline further into 2007 and 2008." NBF assigned a 20% rating to real rates as the tertiary driver of the gold price.
   
   •4) Commodity Rally: "Gold is flourishing as part of a broad-based commodity rally in other metals to meet growing Chinese and other industrial demand and we have assigned a 10% weighting to our expectation for continued strong copper and zinc prices (though has come off of recent highs)."
   
   In their analysis, NBF said the current gold price is being supported by a "relatively flattish mine output profile over the next several years;" continued dehedging among the global gold producers albeit at a slower rate than last year; potential demand from governments looking to bring their central bank gold reserves more in line with the world average; and continued record high investment demand "as gold is being viewed by hedge funds as an asset to currency."
   
5. [verwijderd] 24 mei 2007 09:19

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   Financial Times FT.comWEALTH
   Exchange Traded FundsCloseSingle ETF captures 13% of world silver output
   By Saskia Scholtes in New York
   
   Published: May 23 2007 21:04 | Last updated: May 23 2007 21:04
   
   A single exchange-traded fund captured more than 13 per cent of the world’s silver output last year, according to data from GFMS, a precious metals consultancy.
   
   It achieved this feat even though it was launched only in April last year.
   
   The launch of the iShares Silver Trust ETF, which gives retail investors easy access to the silver market through shares that trade on an exchange, helped stoke demand for the metal last year, sending average prices rocketing 58 per cent to a 26-year high.
   
   Launched with just 1.5m ounces of silver in trust, the fund held 120m ounces at the end of last year and now holds more than 135m ounces. Global silver supply amounted to 912m ounces last year, according to the 2007 world silver survey released by GFMS on Wednesday.
   
   The data show the increasingly important role that ETFs are playing in the precious metals world.
   
   The world’s gold ETFs, which number about 10, have more than 20m ounces under management, accounting for a little less than a fifth of global gold supply last year.
   
   Philip Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS, said the launch of the silver ETF raised concerns about its potential impact on the relatively small silver market. “There were fears voiced that it could lead to market disruptions,” he said.
   
   As a result, investors bought silver before the product’s launch in anticipation of higher prices, and market participants borrowed silver to avoid the higher lease rates the ETF was expected to produce.
   
   There was an initial spike in volatility as speculators unwound their positions and investors moved into the new fund. But Mr Klapwijk said that prices were now more stable.
   
   In the past two months, a number of silver ETFs have launched. ETF Securities launched funds listed on the London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse and Euronext while Zürcher Kantonalbank started a silver ETF on the SWX Swiss Exchange.
   
   Mr Klapwijk said the new ETFs were likely to help sustain high prices, particularly in the light of a slight contraction in overall silver supply in 2006.
   
   Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
   
   "FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of the Financial Times. Privacy policy | Terms
   © Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2007.
   
6. [verwijderd] 27 mei 2007 12:26

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   Experiment
   Mihaly Schroth zal voor edelmetaal-info een aantal keer een "presentatie" maken die door middel van een filmpje op de homepage van edelmetaal-info zal worden vertoond. Hij bespreekt dan vooral de technische kant van goud en wellicht ook de Hui of aandelen in de Hui.
   Mocht dit experiment goed verlopen dan volgt er wellicht een langdurige samenwerking. We wachten de komende tijd af en laat eens weten wat je van die presentaties vindt! De eerste presentatie wordt dit weekend op de site gezet.
   
   www.edelmetaal-info.nl
7. [verwijderd] 1 juni 2007 10:16

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   GOLD & SILVER NEWS
   TRI-METAL CATALYSTS PRODUCE RESULTS
   New demand for gold from diesel engine pollution control catalysts
   Gold-containing exhaust emission control catalysts could provide an excellent opportunity for the gold industry. Tri-metal catalyst can outperform platinum-palladium combinations and save costs.
   
   Author: Tessa Kruger
   Posted: Thursday , 31 May 2007
   
   JOHANNESBURG -
   
   A new demand stream for gold could be created if recently unveiled gold-containing catalysts are applied to control diesel vehicle pollution.
   
   Dr Richard Holliday of the World Gold Council told Mineweb that if gold became a player in the autocatalyst market for precious metals, it could be a very useful new source of demand for the metal.
   
   The likely loadings of gold on the catalyst or the range of applications it will be used in is not know yet. But annual demand for platinum group metals in car catalysts exceeding 250 tonnes a year is some indication.
   
   Holland said the gold industry should see this first introduction of a gold-containing catalyst for use in diesel vehicle oxidation as an excellent opportunity to create a new demand stream for gold.
   
   Nanostellar, described as a leader in nano-engineered catalyst materials, introduced gold as an oxidation catalyst in diesel emissions technology for the first time in April this year.
   
   It announced a gold or tri-metal catalyst (platinum, palladium, gold) that enables manufacturers of light- and heavy-duty diesel engines to reduce harmful emissions up to 40% more than existing platinum-palladium catalysts at equal cost
   
   Its first generation product, based on a platinum and palladium alloy, introduced in 2006, achieved a 25-30% higher performance than commercial pure platinum catalysts. And the second generation product, the gold containing catalyst, delivers a further 15-20% increase in performance.
   
   Platinum is the most expensive component of the diesel oxidation catalysts required to meet the new, stringent emissions regulations for light-duty and heavy-duty diesel vehicles produced worldwide.
   
   Therefore, producers of catalyst materials have introduced the use of palladium to partially replace the more expensive platinum. Now gold - about half the price of platinum - is being pioneered to further reduce the amount of platinum needed as well as the overall cost of catalysts.
   
   The tri-metal formulation of gold, platinum and palladium in diesel catalysts allows the proportions of each metal to be adjusted to meet engine-specific performance targets and to stabilise the overall cost - despite fluctuations in the price of precious metals.
   
   The catalyst does not only improve on the performance of mixed platinum and palladium catalysts, but can also be more easily tuned to the characteristics of a variety of diesel engines, according to Nanostellar.
   
   Holland added that although car manufacturers are often conservative in changing from one technology to another, the potential of cost saving would certainly act as a major enticement.
   
8. [verwijderd] 3 juni 2007 15:31

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   Videopresentatie
   
   Vorige week aangekondigd en geplaatst: een presentatie van Mihaly Schroth over de voorbije week met betrekking tot de goudprijs op week en dagbasis en bespreking van het nieuws onder andere het dumpen van goud door het IMF. De presentatie is goed ontvangen. Natuurlijk waren er de kritische noten: te lang en het praten kon wat vlotter. Voor de tweede presentatie hebben we dat in ons achterhoofd gehouden en de presentatie is nu zeker korter (10 min) en ook nog wat vuurwerk aan het einde. Mihaly Schroth vertelt daar waarom de goudprijs zo steeg de laatste 2 dagen. Dat is niet omdat de ECB beloofde dit jaar (lees tot en met september) geen goud meer te dumpen.. want dat is natuurlijk een wassen neus… over een kleine 4 zomer(!)maanden is het al zover….
   
   www.edelmetaal-info.nl
   
   

   quote:

   Gung Ho schreef:

   Experiment
   Mihaly Schroth zal voor edelmetaal-info een aantal keer een "presentatie" maken die door middel van een filmpje op de homepage van edelmetaal-info zal worden vertoond. Hij bespreekt dan vooral de technische kant van goud en wellicht ook de Hui of aandelen in de Hui.
   Mocht dit experiment goed verlopen dan volgt er wellicht een langdurige samenwerking. We wachten de komende tijd af en laat eens weten wat je van die presentaties vindt! De eerste presentatie wordt dit weekend op de site gezet.
   
   www.edelmetaal-info.nl
   

9. [verwijderd] 4 juni 2007 08:15

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   Klonk een stuk beter.
   Je kon merken dat de aangegeven verbeterpunten waren meegenomen.
   
   Nu op naar de 700.
   
   Gr Bert
   
10. [verwijderd] 5 juni 2007 10:47

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    James Grant: Gold joins the mainstream
    
    By James Grant
    Forbes magazine
    June 18, 2007
    www.forbes.com
    
    Once upon a time gold was the sanctuary of nonconformists, visionaries, contrarians, idolators and cranks. And the gold price moved accordingly. If stocks went up, bullion went down, and vice versa. Which is to say, as the financial theoreticians say, that gold was an uncorrelated asset.
    
    But the barbarous relic has moved ever closer to the investment mainstream. "Strength in commodity markets will be something we should see generally over the next 10 to 20 years," Russell Read, chief investment officer of the California Public Employees Retirement System, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg a few weeks ago. Read has lots of bullish company. In 21TK2 years the market cap of the gold bullion exchange-traded fund StreetTracks Gold Shares, trading at $66 a share, has ballooned to $10 billion from nothing at all. Goldbugs rub their eyes. They feel like the starving artist who awakes one morning to discover that his neighborhood has gone upscale.
    
    Actually, the goldbugs stopped starving some time ago. Since February 2000 the gold price has risen by 130% compared with the S&P 500's 11% and the Nasdaq's minus 45%. Adversity, of course, is the bullion market's old, dear friend. Whether it was the 1987 crash or the Sept. 11 attacks, gold and stocks have tended to go their separate, uncorrelated ways.
    
    If you sat close enough to the blackboard in business school, you may believe that uncorrelated returns are almost as good as just plain high returns. By diversifying into assets disconnected to stocks and bonds, theory has it, an investor can earn greater returns without assuming additional risk. Few assets have answered the call of disconnectedness better than gold. Between 1975 and April 2007 the correlation between weekly movements in gold and of the broad U.S. stock market was around zero.
    
    But a funny thing happened last winter. One day the Shanghai stock market fell out of bed, and, in sympathy, so did other world stock markets--and so did the price of gold. It fell by $23 an ounce. In the 50 days leading up to the Feb. 27 break gold and stocks might as well have been ships in the night. But as the Dow Jones industrial average dropped by 416 points, equities and bullion set sail together. Their correlation rose to 0.6 and stayed there for the next 50 trading days. (At a reading of 1.0, gold and stocks would be in lockstep.)
    
    It could be that this uncharacteristic joining of equities and bullion was a fluke that the safety-seeking gold buyer can safely ignore. But I doubt it. The stellar returns of the postmillennial metals markets have been lost on no one. Investors have chased them, and academics have rationalized them.
    
    The trouble I see is that the opportunists increasingly outnumber the goldbugs. Goldbugs are quick to buy their precious metal and slow to sell it. Opportunists are quick to buy it and quick to sell it. Their principal monetary conviction is that all money is good--not a bad outlook in the abstract, but nothing to hold on to in a bear gold market. So when gold goes down, or when its correlation characteristics change, the opportunist can be expected to dump it as unceremoniously as he would a sack of flour.
    
    It follows that gold could be in for a rough patch. Insofar as it trades like the stock market (at least, on the days when stocks fall), it will tend to lose its newfound adherents. Even its old, grizzled, eccentric fans may despair of it. Why own a defective insurance policy?
    
    That is the near-term risk. But I continue to believe in a sizable long-term reward. Yes, gold has had a nice seven-year run. But the monetary phase of the bull market has hardly begun. How could it have? People, for the most part, still trust the currencies in their wallets and the central bankers who print them. The day gold stops trading as a decorative asset, and begins trading as an alternative to Bernanke & Co., is the day that the gold bull run, part II, begins.
    
    The U.S. this year will emit some $850 billion into the world's payment stream. Most of this money will be absorbed not by profit-seeking individuals but rather by foreign central banks. The central banks of Russia, China and Brazil, for example, will acquire the dollars with currencies they print for the very purpose. This system of creating rubles, renminbi and reals with which to soak up redundant greenbacks might be characterized in many ways. But "bearish for gold over the intermediate to long run" is hardly one of them.
    
    ---------
    
    James Grant is the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.
    
11. [verwijderd] 9 juni 2007 18:55

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    www.edelmetaal-info.nl/edelmetaal_vid...
    
    Nr 3 dd 9 juni 2007
    
    Bespreking van de goudmarkt van de afgelopen week door Mihaly Schroth met o.a.:
    - Bespreking TA van goud
    - Snoeiharde daling van bijna 30 dollar in 48 uur.
    - Obligaties onder druk
    - Belangrijke ontwikkelingen voor goud
    
12. [verwijderd] 13 juni 2007 08:43

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    PETER BRIMELOW
    Conspiracy or coincidence?
    Commentary: Gold moves raise new claims of cartel manipulation
    By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
    Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jun 13, 2007
    
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A bad day for stocks - and for gold, which closed Tuesday in New York at $647.10, down over $7 on the day and sharply down from its April lunge at the $700 level.
    First a proprietary word: The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, which represents the average gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold-timing newsletters, stood at a reading of 21.4% on Tuesday night. That's not dramatically low - gold exposure can go well into negative territory. But it's a change from the over-enthusiasm (50%) that Mark Hulbert thought gold-timers were displaying earlier this month, when gold reached $671 See June 5 column
    Bottom line: gold is no longer under serious contrary opinion pressure
    For a really radical view on gold, I like to turn to Bill Murphy's subscription website www.lemetropolecafe.com . See Oct. 12 column
    Murphy believes gold has long been manipulated downward by what he calls ""the Gold Cartel," a private-public sector alliance with a joint interest in engineering a stock market bubble and suppressing evidence of inflation. He wrote Tuesday night: "The Gold Cartel is nothing less than white collar criminals ... an organized, highly sophisticated bunch of politicians, bureaucrats and bullion bankers who are manipulating the price of gold to suit their own agendas."
    "Yesterday, I queried what the lousy gold share action might mean. Now you know. There are some in our camp who believe these shares are manipulated along with bullion itself, while others are not so sure. The last two days left NO DOUBT in my mind it is the former. On Friday gold was slaughtered and the shares did not budge. Then gold rallies sharply on Monday. The shares rally at first, but then fail miserably to respond to the bullion strength. Today gold is mauled. The bullion banking gangsters are playing the shares like a fiddle and taking your investment money from you in the process.
    "Gold was taken down $2 immediately after the Comex close yesterday and stayed that way through the London Fix, which came in at $652.80. Then, with the yield on the 10-year T note rising to 5.22%, the cabal's hit men went after gold to calm down the increasing inflation fears, as they did on Friday. They did so despite the dollar hardly moving ... pound higher, yen unchanged, and euro off only about .15."
    "The floor reported there was one huge, mysterious seller emanating from the electronic market again. Their "200 lot orders were hitting every bid." When they let up, gold rallied $3. Then they started all over again.
    "When the U.S. stock market, Dow down 90, began to react badly to the rising rates, gold was mauled further. The "gangsters" were not about to let the gold price hang in there with their beloved market under such pressure, better to kill the messenger of higher inflation, that being gold."
    Where should gold be? Tuesday night, Murphy posted a fierce argument by Eric Hommelberg of The Gold Discovery Letter that, for a variety of fundamental and technical reasons, the yellow metal should reach $,2000.
    Murphy might sound wild but, at the risk of revealing my age, the wild men got the best of the argument when gold broke free of government controls and blew off into last great bull market in 1980.
    Lemetropolecafe does provide one valuable service that no one else seems to have picked up on: data on whether India, the world's largest gold consumer, is importing gold at current price levels. As of Tuesday night, it was.
    That means the Gold Cartel, if it exists, will have to cough up serious physical gold to hold the price down.
13. [verwijderd] 14 juni 2007 08:40

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    GATA will demand truth about U.S. gold reserves
    
    Submitted by cpowell on 09:28PM ET Wednesday, June 13, 2007. Section: Daily Dispatches
    12:25a ET Thursday, June 14, 2007
    
    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
    
    At 8 a.m. ET today GATA will distribute internationally as a press release the statement appended here. We'll be grateful for any financial support for the undertaking it announces.
    
    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
    
    * * *
    
    GATA WILL DEMAND TRUTH
    ABOUT U.S. GOLD RESERVES
    
    Thursday, June 14, 2007
    
    Constitutional scholar, writer, and lawyer Edwin Vieira has been retained by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. to lead an inquiry into the disposition and possible impairment of United States gold reserves.
    
    Vieira, author of the monetary history of the United States, "Pieces of Eight," is a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School and a renowned spokesman for sound money.
    
    Consulting for GATA, using the federal Freedom of Information Act, and retaining a Washington-area law firm, Vieira will seek to compel the U.S. government to disclose records showing how much gold is in the government's custody; who owns it; whether it has been leased or otherwise made available to foreign governments or gold market participants; and whether the policies and practices behind the use of U.S. gold reserves have been meant to influence the price of gold.
    
    GATA, a non-profit civil rights and educational organization founded in 1999, has published evidence that central banks and government financial agencies, including the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, work together, usually surreptitiously but sometimes openly, to rig nominally free gold markets as part of their general program of controlling international currency exchange rates. That evidence includes the transcript of the meeting of the Federal Reserve Board's Federal Open Market Committee on January 31, 1995, which confirmed the U.S. government's participation in gold swaps, exchanges of gold with other governments so that gold might be introduced into markets without being easily traced to the originating government.
    
    "Because gold is a measure of all currencies, government bonds, and the value of labor, a free gold market is crucial to the freedom of all markets and, indeed, to honest dealing and personal liberty throughout the world," GATA Chairman William J. Murphy said. "As the nominal holder of the largest official gold reserves in the world and the issuer of the primary world reserve currency, the U.S. government has much to answer for here. No one is more expert in these issues than Ed Vieira, and all GATA wants is the truth. In a democracy that should not be too much to ask."
    
    In addition to hiring a Washington-area law firm, Murphy said, GATA's demand for the U.S. government to produce information about its gold reserves probably will lead to litigation under the Freedom of Information Act. So, he added, "We now will be especially grateful for financial contributions to underwrite our legal campaign for the truth."
    
    GATA is recognized as tax-exempt by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service and contributions to it are federally tax-deductible in the United States. Contributions may be sent to:
    
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
    c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
    7 Villa Louisa Road
    Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541
    USA
    
    GATA's Internet site is found at www.gata.org/.
    
    Contact:
    
    Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
    Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541
    USA
    860-646-0500x307
    CPowell@GATA.org
14. [verwijderd] 16 juni 2007 13:22

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    What the Dollar Was and is at the Present, Plus an Interview With Cambridge House International
    
    By John Lee Printer Friendly Version
    Jun 15 2007 10:36AM
    
    www.goldmau.com
    
    The dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for the past two decades. In fact, since the late 80s, the dollar has pretty much been THE ONLY currency.
    
    Throughout the time the dollar has reigned supreme there has been no reason for Asian manufacturers and merchandisers to focus on their domestic markets. Doing so would result in the exchange of their goods for unstable currencies. Instead, they have shipped their goods to the Americans, who are happily racking up debt and issuing dollars for the overpriced Asian goods.
    
    This trend has changed since 2005. With strengthening currencies in Asia, companies are reassessing their strategy from exporting goods for dollars to focusing on domestic consumption. With a combined two trillion plus dollars in foreign reserves, there is a collective epiphany amongst the private and public sectors that perhaps enough dollars is enough. For low margin businesses such as food and agriculture, a 10% decline in the dollar is an absolute killer.
    
    Asians never had confidence in their own currencies. They think of their own currencies as being inferior and poorly managed. One can attribute this to “the grass is greener on the other side” psychology as well as the powerful American marketing machine and the elusive strong dollar policy from the Clinton administration.
    
    This is really the first time in ten years that regional Asian currencies from China’s RMB to the Thai Bhat and from the Indian Rupee to the Philippine Pesos are gaining recognition and popularity. This view is supported by both appreciating exchange rates and brisk sale of Asian sovereign and corporate debts. Across the Pacific Ocean, interestingly, the dollar is enduring the exact opposite fate. The currency is now suffering both a fundamental issue of deficit as well as of image, which cannot be repaired easily.
    
    What is more, the dollar now carries an interest rate that is higher than most Western currencies and even higher than most Asian currencies. I cannot recall the last time this happened and as I wrote in the January market update “The least likely scenario is for rate to go up.”
    
    Consequently, I do not see anything ahead that will reverse the dollar’s fate, which is further down against the Asian currencies. I do not see the collapse of the dollar index, but rather a steady corrosion of confidence in all paper currencies. To a regular person, the pain will be reflected through higher living expenses, to shrewd investors, the gain will be reflected in higher gold prices. I don’t see gold below $650/oz, supported by India’s and China’s strengthening currencies and the Indian and Chinese appetite for the yellow metal.
    
    Unfortunately, having access to top industry analysts and experts is not always an easy matter. This is why an insightful interview with Howard Fitch, President of Cambridge House International is an opportunity that should not be missed.
    
    John Lee from GoldMau TV talked to Mr. Howard Fitch regarding the World Gold, PGM and Diamond Investment Conference that will take place in Vancouver on June 17-18, 2007.
    
    Since 1993, Cambridge House International (www.goldshow.ca) has been hosting resource conferences that bring together acclaimed speakers, established and emerging public companies, individual and professional investors. Speakers for the upcoming June conference include Doug Casey, David Morgan, Jon Nadler, Rick Rule, Frank Holmes, Bob Bishop, John Kaiser and more. Don't miss this rare chance to listen to what Mr. Fitch has to say about this Vancouver conference on June 17 and 18!
    
    Go to www.goldmau.com to watch the full interview and learn more about the event.
    
    
    
    John Lee,
    CFA john@maucapital.com
    
    
    
    
    
    ****
    
    Visit www.goldmau.com to sign up for instant market and stock alerts.
    
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 16 juni 2007 22:42

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    Nr 4 dd 16 juni 2007
    
    Bespreking van de goudmarkt van de afgelopen week door Mihaly Schroth met o.a.:
    
    - Bespreking TA van goud op de daggrafiek
    
    - Swiss Goudverkopen en stijgende inflatie
    
    - Zwitsers lopen 13 mrd Chf mis door te vroeg goud te verkopen..net als de Engelsen.
    www.edelmetaal-info.nl/edelmetaal_vid...
    
    
16. [verwijderd] 22 juni 2007 08:15

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    How gold can predict inflation
    Report says it can do so up to two years in advance
    
    David Berman
    Financial Post
    
    Thursday, June 21, 2007
    
    People like gold because of its relative scarcity and its allure as a commodity. People love it because of its traditional hedge against inflation: When prices are rising and consumers lose confidence in paper money, they turn to a hard asset that has a long history as a value vault.
    
    But more than reflecting inflation, some observers believe gold can predict its arrival well into the future. If they are right, Canada's inflation rate has further to go before it finally tapers off. This means interest rates will also head higher before businesses and consumers finally get some relief.
    
    The Bank of Canada released a report this week saying as much. Greg Tkacz, a researcher at the bank, said gold can predict inflation in various economies and up to two years ahead of time, even as sophisticated investors have other means of offsetting rising inflation using the futures market.
    
    "Gold seems to be most significant for developed countries that have formally adopted inflation targets," he said in his report, which used data from 1994 to 2005.
    
    In other words, it works best as an inflation predictor for countries such as Canada, Australia, the European Union, the U.K. and China, after gold prices are translated into domestic currencies. The explicit inflation target acts as an anchor for inflation expectations. However, Mr. Tkacz said it also works for two developed countries that do not have formal inflation targets: Japan and the United States.
    
    He discovered that if the price of gold rises by 10%, the consumer price index in Canada will rise one quarter of a percentage point over the next 12 months. With the price of gold soaring as much as 25% in Canadian-dollar terms within the past year (it has since retreated), Mr. Tkacz's research points to the possibility of substantially higher inflation ahead.
    
    Given that he works at the Bank of Canada, his conclusions could also have an impact on how the central bank reacts to an inflation rate that remains stubbornly high. The consumer price index for May rose 2.2% over last year, above the bank's 2% target.
    
    Mr. Tkacz also noted, though, that the Canadian dollar has an impact here. If the price of gold rises 10% and the loonie rises 5%, the impact on inflation is a wash. Since the dollar has risen about 10% over the past three months, the spike in inflation could be short-lived.
    
    "If anything, the lagged rises in the Canadian dollar value of gold imply an even larger surge in core inflation than we've seen," said David Wolf, chief strategist and head of Canadian economics at Merrill Lynch, in a note to clients yesterday. "But it also implies that such a surge would be temporary, as those prices have recently reversed lower amid a strong Canadian dollar and flat-to-lower U.S.-dollar prices for gold."
    
    If you are a gold bug and dreaming of the day when high inflation bumps off the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, you may have to wait a little longer.
    
    dberman@nationalpost.com
    
    © National Post 2007
17. [verwijderd] 24 juni 2007 12:33

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    Belangrijk nieuws van deze week:
    
    Opmerkelijke goudverkopen van Centrale Banken buiten de CBGA: Indonesië 23.3 ton, BIS 22.7 ton, UK 6.5 ton, Zweden 3.3 ton en natuurlijk de ECB met 37 ton en Spanje met 108 ton. Verkopen waren de afgelopen maanden hoger dan ooit, en toch wist goud boven de $640 te blijven. mineweb: lees meer
    
    (mijn excuus voor het veranderen van de file..wederom, ik heb weinig ervaring hiermee, en probeer goede combinatie te vinden tussen kwaliteit en snelheid..voor player: Flv flash speler)
    
    contact mihaly vragen/aanmerkingen
    
    Goud Update 23 Juni (pop up player voor flash file)
    
    Bespreking TA van de goud future op dagbasis
    Enorme verkopen van de Centrale Banken en Hui aanpassing.
    Bespreking olie, hui index, euro, hedgefunds, en de bund.
    hedgefund verhaal in de nieuwsflits
    
    www.edelmetaal-info.nl/edelmetaal_vid...
18. [verwijderd] 24 juni 2007 18:11

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    quote:

    Gung Ho schreef:

    Belangrijk nieuws van deze week:
    
    Opmerkelijke goudverkopen van Centrale Banken buiten de CBGA: Indonesië 23.3 ton, BIS 22.7 ton, UK 6.5 ton, Zweden 3.3 ton en natuurlijk de ECB met 37 ton en Spanje met 108 ton. Verkopen waren de afgelopen maanden hoger dan ooit, en toch wist goud boven de $640 te blijven. mineweb: lees meer
    

    Zouden de CBs een monetaire contractie voorbereiden ?
19. [verwijderd] 25 juni 2007 14:07

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    BIS celebrates the obvious while missing the big irony
    
    Here are a couple of reports about the annual meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. If the reports are fair representations, the BIS has done no more than to celebrate the obvious (the U.S. trade and budget deficits make the dollar vulnerable) while missing the most telling irony -- that if, as the BIS said today, appropriating Alan Greenspan's old phrase, the financial markets have become "irrationally exuberant," it is in part because the BIS and its member central banks long have been suppressing the price of gold, disconnecting what ordinarily would be a major alarm for the markets.
    
    In any case the decisions facing the financial markets now will never be made by the markets themselves, since there really are no markets anymore, only ever-increasing central bank interventions. That makes the market decisions into political decisions. The markets will turn when governments and central banks turn, and governments and central banks have no one to criticize but themselves.
    
    But you can bet that the BIS' annual meeting was well-catered and that the next one will be too, so why should they criticize?
    
    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
    
    * * *
    
    Dollar 'Vulnerable' to Drop
    in Investment, BIS Says
    
    By Lukanyo Mnyanda
    Bloomberg News Service
    Sunday, June 24, 2007
    
    www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601...
    
    The dollar is "vulnerable" to a drop in the investment inflows that the U.S. relies on to fund its trade and current-account deficits, according the Bank for International Settlements.
    
    The currency has been supported by purchases of Treasuries by foreign investors attracted to U.S. yields and central banks that buy dollars to curb appreciation in their exchange rates. Such investors now own a record 80 percent of Treasuries due in three to 10 years, according to research from HSBC Holdings Plc.
    
    "The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private-sector confidence," the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said in its 77th annual report today. "The reliability of public-sector inflows has also become more uncertain."
    
    Central banks may reduce purchases of dollars and allow their currencies to strengthen in a bid to curb inflation, the BIS said. They may also invest a greater proportion of new foreign-exchange reserves outside of the U.S. to earn higher returns, adding to the "threat" to the dollar, it said.
    
    Inflation in China accelerated to a two-year high of 3.4 percent last month, and a stronger currency would help curb gains in consumer prices by lowering the cost of imported goods.
    
    "The fear of inflation is causing central banks in Asia to change their thinking away from interventionist policies," said David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC in London. "They could slow down accumulation of reserves and let their currencies rise. Then the dollar will fall."
    
    ...Currency Reserves
    
    The deficit in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of trade because it includes some investment flows, reached a record $192.6 billion in the first three months of the year. The U.S. needs to attract about $2.1 billion a day to fund the gap, making the economy vulnerable to higher interest rates and a drop in the dollar should foreigners sour on its assets.
    
    The U.S. currency fell 0.6 percent to $1.3470 per euro in the past week. The dollar dropped to a record low of $1.3681 on April 27. The euro has climbed 2.1 percent against the dollar this year.
    
    Asian central banks from China to India boosted their currency reserves 58 percent to $2.2 trillion last year as they bought dollars, said the BIS, which was formed in 1930 to monitor markets and promote cooperation between central banks.
    
    The Indian rupee has gained 8.6 percent against the dollar in 2007, compared with a 1.7 percent advance for the whole of last year. The Chinese yuan has climbed 2.4 percent so far this year, after rising 3.3 percent in 2006.
    
    The People's Bank of China, which has the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves totaling $1.2 trillion, has said it will boost investments in bonds other than Treasuries. Japan, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, with $612 billion, has cut the investments this year from $623 billion.
    
    Governments "have already publicly expressed strong concern about excessive capital investments, and possible resource misallocations," the BIS said. "In a number of countries, inflationary pressures are rising."
    
    * * *
    
    Central Banks Should Keep Raising Rates, BIS Says
    
    By Krista Hughes and Sven Egenter
    Reuters
    Sunday, June 24, 2007
    
    www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/...
    
    BASEL, Switzerland -- Central banks around the world should raise interest rates further to curb inflation pressures, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday.
    
    The global economy is poised for a fifth straight year of growth above 4 percent, but risks remain and have as their common thread the highly accommodative financial conditions that have buoyed it in recent years, BIS General Manager Malcolm Knight said.
    
    Tighter rates would have the added benefit of reining in financial markets, which Knight said were still loaded with risk, possibly sowing the seeds for a nasty correction in assets and currencies.
    
    "Financial conditions are still accommodative, access to credit remains easy, and credit spreads are at record lows," Knight said after talks with about 250 central bankers at the BIS annual general meeting.
    
    "Containing inflationary pressures seems to require further tightening in most jurisdictions, as is expected by financial markets."
    
    Central banks are concerned about excess liquidity in the face of strengthening growth, pushing up borrowing costs around the world. The Bank of England is seen hiking again in July or August, the Bank of Japan in August, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates in September and markets have now abandoned hopes of a cut in U.S. interest rates.
    
    In its annual report, also released on Sunday, the BIS cited a resurgence in inflation, the chance of a sharper slowdown in the United States, and financial market vulnerabilities as key risks to future global prosperity.
    
    Financial markets may have become "irrationally exuberant," it said, borrowing a phrase used by former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to describe the stock market boom of the 1990s.
    
    Knight said although real risk premiums had gone up in recent weeks as bond prices tumbled, they had come from very low levels and investors were still accepting a fair amount of risk.
    
    "The robust performance of the world economy can in part justify such vibrancy," he said in his speech to the AGM.
    
    "Even so, it is hard not to detect in the current climate that sense of exuberance, even hubris, that in the past has not augured well for subsequent developments."
    
    ...Going fine
    
    Top officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ and People's Bank of China attended the weekend meetings in the Swiss city of Basel, as well as representatives from more than 100 other central banks.
    
    Policymakers attending the meetings also expressed optimism about the world economic outlook.
    
    "Everything is going fine," ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch said when asked about the global economy.
    
    Seve
20. [verwijderd] 2 juli 2007 09:05

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    Nieuw: dagnieuwsflitsen!
    
    Deze dagnieuwsflitsen worden samengesteld door Mihaly Schroth
    
    [Lees hier verder]
    
    Videocolumn van M.Schroth
    Nr 6 dd 30 juni 2007
    Bespreking van de goudmarkt van de afgelopen week door Mihaly Schroth met o.a.:
    - Bespreking TA van goud
    - Daggrafiek
    - Weekgrafiek
    - Nieuws deze week
    - Edelmetaalmijnen en HUI
    - Valuta, indices en olie
    
    [ Kijk en luister hier ]
    
    

    quote:

    Gung Ho schreef:

    Belangrijk nieuws van deze week:
    
    Opmerkelijke goudverkopen van Centrale Banken buiten de CBGA: Indonesië 23.3 ton, BIS 22.7 ton, UK 6.5 ton, Zweden 3.3 ton en natuurlijk de ECB met 37 ton en Spanje met 108 ton. Verkopen waren de afgelopen maanden hoger dan ooit, en toch wist goud boven de $640 te blijven. mineweb: lees meer
    
    (mijn excuus voor het veranderen van de file..wederom, ik heb weinig ervaring hiermee, en probeer goede combinatie te vinden tussen kwaliteit en snelheid..voor player: Flv flash speler)
    
    contact mihaly vragen/aanmerkingen
    
    Goud Update 23 Juni (pop up player voor flash file)
    
    Bespreking TA van de goud future op dagbasis
    Enorme verkopen van de Centrale Banken en Hui aanpassing.
    Bespreking olie, hui index, euro, hedgefunds, en de bund.
    hedgefund verhaal in de nieuwsflits
    
    www.edelmetaal-info.nl/edelmetaal_vid...