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Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 20 februari 2007 21:18

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   Gung Ho,
   Dank je!
   De dip - uitverkopen - van vandaag zie je geen afbreuk doen hieraan?
2. [verwijderd] 22 februari 2007 09:04

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   Peter Millar: Seven-fold increase in gold needed to avert debt depression
   
   Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
   
   While it is almost a year old, a study of the enduring importance of gold in the world economic system by R. Peter W. Millar, founder of Valu-Trac Investment Research Ltd. in Scotland (www.valu-trac.com), seems ever more compelling, and Millar graciously has agreed to let it be shared with you.
   
   Millar stresses the periodic upward revaluation of gold as the mechanism for defeating a deflationary debt depression at the end of an economic cycle. Millar writes:
   
   "The first cycle unfolded as follows:
   
   "-- Phase 1: Stability under a gold standard until 1914.
   
   "-- Phase 2: Inflation until 1921, which resulted in a buildup of debt.
   
   "-- Phase 3: Disinflation, which brought stability and allowed asset inflation until 1929, but encouraged a further buildup of debt.
   
   "-- Phase 4: Instability after 1929 caused by deflation of assets from overpriced levels and exacerbated by excessive debt levels, leading to depression of economic activity.
   
   "-- Phase 5: Monetary reform enabled by a revaluation of gold to overcome deflationary debt depression.
   
   "In the second half of the 20th century we saw a repeat of the first three phases of the same cycle:
   
   "-- Phase 1: Stability from 1944 to 1968 under a gold standard.
   
   "-- Phase 2: Inflation from 1968 to 1981, which caused and justified another buildup of debt.
   
   "-- Phase 3: Disinflation from 1981 until the end of the 20th century, and maybe to the present.
   
   "However, it appears that Phase 4 (instability and ultimately deflation due to excessive debt) may have started. If so, Phase 5 (revaluation of the gold price to raise the monetary value of the world monetary base and hence reduce the burden of debt) becomes likely or inevitable. The extent of that revaluation would need to be major according to our calculations, probably by a factor of at least seven times, possibly up to 20 times the current price of gold."
   
   The price of gold when Millar wrote his study, in May 2006, was about where it is tonight.
   
   Millar's study is titled "The Relevance and Importance of Gold in the World Monetary System" and you can find it at GATA's Internet site here:
   
   www.gata.org/node/4843
   
   CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
   Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
   
3. [verwijderd] 26 februari 2007 08:17

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   Ctrl Bks Raise Euro, Cut Dollar Share Of Reserves -CBP Survey Mon, Feb 26 2007, 00:01 GMT
   www.djnewswires.com/eu
   
   Ctrl Bks Raise Euro, Cut Dollar Share Of Reserves -CBP Survey
   
   LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro made small gains as a reserve currency at the expense of the U.S. dollar in the final months of 2006, while gold is set to make a comeback as a reserve asset, a survey by Central Banking Publications showed Monday.
   
   Although respondents to the confidential survey don't appear to have included the People's Bank of China or the Bank of Japan - which hold the world's largest foreign exchange reserves - they do account for 30% of total reserves held worldwide, or $1.5 trillion, CBP said. Of the 47 central banks that responded by December to the survey, 21 of them, managing reservesof $630 billion, said they had increased the share of their reserves held as euros, and 15 of thosesaid they had done so at the expense of the dollar.
   
   The survey by CBP, a publishing company specializing in reporting on central banks and other aspects of international finance, showed that seven central banks said they had cut the share of reserves held in euros.
   
   Nineteen central banks said they had cut the share of reserves held as dollars, while only 10 had increased the share of reserves held in the U.S. currency. Only five of the latter group, with reserves totaling $70 billion, said they had done so at the expense of the euro.
   
   "Many respondents raised the proportion of their portfolios held in euros, in most cases at the expense of the dollar," Central Banking Publications said.
   
   Nine central banks raised the pound's allocation, while four cut its share of reserves. Four central banks reported cutting their allocations of the Swiss franc, and none reported increasing its share.
   
   Six central banks said they had raised their yen allocations, while four cut their allocations to the Japanese currency.
   
   The shift into euros on the scale suggested by the survey would still leave the dollar as the dominant reserve currency by a large margin.
   
   The International Monetary Fund has said that in the third quarter of 2006 the dollar accounted for 66% of foreign currency reserves, while the euro accounted for 25%. In the second quarter, the dollar accounted for 65% of reserves, and the euro 25.5%.
   
   The survey also indicates that the pound continues to be the third most important reserve currency, with the Japanese yen remaining in fourth place.
   
   After a long decline as a reserve asset, the survey indicates that gold may be about to make a comeback. Some 63% of central banks said gold had become more attractive following recent price rises and an increase in market liquidity.
   
   But gold's role as a safe haven in the wake of natural or man-made disasters is also part of its attraction for central bankers.
   
   "Ongoing geopolitical risks involving the U.S. and its war on terrorism make U.S. Treasurys less attractive and gold more attractive," the survey quoted a reserve manager at a developing country's central bank as saying.
   
   Central banks have been diversifying their investment portfolios away from holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and other low-yielding assets in recent years.
   
   The survey found many would like to be able to invest in equities, something only three of the central banks in the survey are allowed to do at present.
   
   Some 56% of respondents said there is a case for allowing central banks to invest in equities, although few of those came from developing economies.
   
   However, a move into equities is unlikely to happen soon, since central banks continue to be conservative in their investment decisions.
   
   The survey showed that in 2006, 70% didn't raise the proportion of their portfolio that is invested in "new asset classes" - essentially, anything that isn't a triple-A rated government bond - while 5% had cut their allocation to new assets.
   
   Central banks were in agreement that the sharp rise in official foreign exchange reserves that has taken place in the last three years is likely to continue.
   
   One central bank expects reserves to double over the next three to four years, but most respondents expected reserves to increase by between 20% and 59%, on top of the 70% increase since 2004.
   
   Central banks said the greatest threat to the value of their reserves over the coming 12 months is the risk of a slowdown in a major economy - particularly the U.S. - and global imbalances. That contrasts with 2006 and 2005, when their greatest concern was rising interest rates.
   
   Reserve managers are also increasingly worried by the threat posed by heightened geopolitical risks, while some also expressed concern about the growing role played by hedge funds in global financial markets.
   
   "Hedge funds have been growing rapidly and taking huge positions in different markets, and it seems that lessons from the past are not being taken into account," said one reserve manager. "When they come to unwind their positions, the impact on the markets may be severely destabilizing."
   
   -By Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9491; paul.hannon@dowjones.com
   
   (END) Dow Jones Newswires
   
   February 25, 2007 19:01 ET (00:01 GMT)
   
   
4. [verwijderd] 26 februari 2007 21:42

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   Weekend top story: Newmont’s Lassonde: Now might be the time to get into gold stocks
   By: Dorothy Kosich
   Posted: '23-FEB-07 11:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006
   
   RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) -- Newmont Mining Vice Chairman Pierre Lassonde Thursday advised that there may be a great opportunity for investors to get back into gold stocks, which he suggested will have a “much greater appreciation and value” than even the highly successful gold ETF.
   
   During a conference call with analysts to discuss Newmont’s year-end results, Lassonde said more stable and lower oil prices could help mining costs, which, in turn, could see an appreciation in mining share value.
   
   “We are in a hard asset, gold cycle,” he declared. Lassonde maintains that the bull market for hard assets will continue, noting that the last bull market for gold lasted 14 years from 1966-1980. He estimated that the current 6 ½ year bull market has an excellent chance of continuing given China and India’s 10% growth rate and the fact that 40% of the world’s population lives in a region with a rising standard of living.
   
   Newmont Chairman and CEO Wayne Murdy told analysts that the first half of 2007 will remain challenging due to a 46% decrease in ore grade and a 33% in tons mined at the Yanacocha gold mine in Peru and at Australian mines, combined with the continued ramp-up of new mines.
   
   Lassonde said Newmont’s efforts to arrest the decline in gold grades is the foremost of the challenges, adding that exploration successes are slowing the decline. Newmont added 52.5 million ounces of gold reserves—including 7.9 million ounces through exploration and 3.7 million ounces through acquisition, offsetting 7.4 million ounces of depletion, 1.5 million ounces expropriated in Uzbekistan and 2 million ounces of revisions.
   
   The company’s $175 million 2007 exploration program is expected to focus on near-mine programs on the Carlin Trend, Yanacocha, the Sefwi Belt in Ghana, as well as Australia. The company also noted encouraging greenfields projects in regions such as the Guyana Shield in South America, the Andes in Peru, and the Greenstone Belts in West Africa. For the first time, Newmont will spend 9% of its exploration budget for diamond exploration. Newmont invested $152 million in Shore Gold’s diamond exploration program in Saskatchewan, and will spend $18 million on underground exploration.
   
   2007 GUIDANCE
   However, the company said it expected equity gold sales to decline to between 5.2 million and 5.6 million ounces as a result of lower production from Yanacocha and Australia, as well as the closure of two mines in Nevada and Canada. Lost production from the expropriation of the company’s 50% interest in the Zarafshan-Newmont Joint Venture in Uzbekistan will also lower gold production this year.
   
   Costs applicable to sales this year are expected to be 25% higher. Future possible power interruptions in Ghana may also impact Newmont’s mining costs. After this year, the company hopes to realize cost efficiencies and benefits from several investments, completion of the new Boddington mine, construction of a power plant in Nevada (which will lower operating costs $25/oz), and completion of the Yanacocha gold mill.
   
   The company has budgeted $1.8 billion to $2 billion in capital expenditures this year with one-third invested in Nevada, one third in Australia/New Zealand and the remaining one third allocated to other locations.
   
   FINANCIAL RESULTS
   Newmont announced that net income for 2006 increase 146% to $791 million ($1.76 per share) compared to $322 million (72-cents per share) for 2005. Net income for the fourth quarter increased by 260% to $223 million (50-cents per share), compared with $62 million (14-cents per share) for the fourth quarter of 2005.
   
   Mineweb always carries details of at least 20 independently written top mining, mining finance, metals and mining sector analysis articles on its homepage as well as a fast news feed to keep you right up to date with what is going on in the mining and metals sectors worldwide. These are continuously updated through the day. Click here to go to Mineweb's home page and access the latest news and comments on developments in mining and metals worldwide.
   
5. [verwijderd] 2 maart 2007 14:34

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   Global gold hedge book now at lowest since 1994
   Rhona O'Connell
   
   The latest Global Hedge Book Analysis from GFMS Ltd., in conjunction with Brady plc and Société Générale, has been released and reports that dehedging in the world's gold mining industry in the fourth quarter slowed to 41 tonnes and that the provisional figure for the full year is for 397 tonnes of net de-hedging. This compares with estimated mine production in 2006 of 2,467 tonnes, suggesting that net supply from the mining sector in 2006 amounted to 2,030 tonnes, compared with a net 2,436 tonnes in 2005.
   The longer term time series suggests that since the end of 1999, the global hedge book has contracted by 1,803 tonnes, equivalent to approximately six months' fabrication and bar hoarding demand.
   At the end of the year, total outstanding producer positions amounted to 1,341 tonnes on a delta-adjusted basis. This is the lowest level since 1994. The activity in 2006, driven largely by the hefty unwinding activity on Barrick's part, meant that de-hedging in 2006 was broadly in line with “the elevated levels of de-hedging in the three years prior to the slump reported in 2005”.
   The report notes that one of the common factors behind these substantial levels of dehedging was heightened corporate activity. While Barrick, with 277 tonnes of de-hedging following the Placer acquisition was the cornerstone of the 2006 activity, it will be recalled that AngloGold and Ashanti fuelled the activity in 2004, and Newmont, that of 2003.
   The GFMS analysis uses the Brady Trinity ™ Risk management system, under which each mining company's individual trades are input into the system. Each option trade is entered by mid-year of expiry, while non vanilla products (e.g. convertible forwards) have been broken down into the constituent options, allowing for accurate assessments and valuations of each company's hedging programme as well as the modelling of the delivery profile of the hedge book.
   The detailed breakdown shows that the decline in the hedge book stemmed from cuts in forward sales and gold loans, while the net vanilla options delta hedge registered a modest increase, as a result of the 6% increase in the price used to value the contracts at end-December. The price increase also means that the cumulative mark to market calculation for comparable hedge books deteriorated between September and December, reaching $10.4 billion. This compares with $3.9 billion at end-December 2003. Allied to this is the fact that hedged producers received a weighted average price of $525/ounce, as against unhedged producers' realised prices of $616/ounce over the quarter. The average spot price for the quarter, meanwhile, was $613/ounce.
   The nominal volume of the global hedge book, i.e. without adjusting for the delta, fell by 89 tonnes, equivalent to a cut of 5% against the outstanding position at the end of the third quarter. The position of the nominal book remained broadly stable, with forwards and loans accounting for 64% of the total at the end of the quarter. Vanilla options contributed a further 36% and the balance is attributable to on-vanilla contracts.
   An interesting development is that the proportion accounted for by the forwards and loans was 68% of total at the end of 2005 and 75% at the end of 2004. This suggests that the exotic instruments are starting to make a little bit of a comeback after the flight away from them in the wake of the massive borrowing in September 1999 that resulted in sizeable problems at Ashanti and Cambior and generated something of a shareholder revolt in the sector as a whole with respect to complicated hedge positions.
   In delta-adjusted terms, which is more significant in terms of the impact on the physical market itself, the drop in the position was more constrained, at 41 tonnes, largely as a result of the changes in the vanilla options book, which increased by 6% in net delta options quarter-on-quarter, itself largely a result of an increase in the net put position due to the rise in the gold price.
   Model valuation by the group shows that the global hedge book is in fact relatively insensitive to gold price changes, while the risk matrix in the report also models the exposure of the global options-only book under different scenarios.
   At a corporate level, the largest de-hedger over the quarter was clearly Barrick at 1.2 million ounces, followed by Gold Fields with 0.31 million ounces and Newcrest with 0.15 million ounces. The individual volumes unwound by remaining companies then fall away reasonably sharply. AngloGold Ashanti, meanwhile, reported a modest net increase of 21 tonnes to its net delta hedge positions, to leave the total net gold book at 316 tonnes. Here too, this is a result of higher gold prices and their impact on the option book. The report goes into some detail about individual companies' positions with, in a number of cases, the projects against which the books are structured.
   Easing slightly into the first quarter of this year, the study notes (another result of corporate activity) Gold Fields' buy back of the Western Areas hedge at the South Deep mine, the elimination of which continued into January of this year.
   The delivery profile suggests that de-hedging will drop to between seven and eight million ounces per annum in each of 2007, 2008 and 2009, with a slight increase in 2009 before a sharp drop in 2010.
6. [verwijderd] 5 maart 2007 09:03

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   Could a future investor liquidation substantially harm the silver ETF? Dorothy Kosich '05-MAR-07
   
   TORONTO--(Mineweb.com) While the silver ETF has been a resounding success, HSBC metals analyst Jim Steel warned Sunday that a liquidation by institutional investors would hit a silver ETF far stronger than a liquidation involving gold ETFs.
   
   In a presentation to the Prospectors and Developers’ Association Conference in Toronto, Steel noted that silver had become a popular instrument for hedge funds and institutional investors.
   
   Nevertheless, if these investors chose to liquidate their holdings in a silver ETF, it would have a substantial impact on silver markets because silver ETFs hold nearly double the amount of official sector silver sales, one-fifth of total mined silver output, two-thirds of the silver scrap market, one-third of industrial demand, more than half of the combined jewelry and silverware output, and one-eight of the world’s total silver supply and demand.
   
   Despite these potential consequences, Steel suggested that the silver ETF has held firmly “in the face of significant price corrections.” While speculative interest in silver on the COMEX dropped due to the introduction of the silver ETF, nonetheless, overall COMEX silver investment “is holding firm,” he added.
   
   Steel said the typical retail investor in silver is more than 50 years old, possesses a high net worth, and is not scared by a $2 or $3 price drop in the metal. The typical institutional silver investor is a fund in his opinion.
   
   Among the factors Steel attributed to the gains in silver were the overall strength of commodity markets, the demand from eastern Asia, and the industrialization of 40% of the world’s population. Steel noted that silver has capitalized on the strong global industrial demand for the precious metal including new scientific and industrial processes which utilize silver.
   
   Steel’s research determined that silver has been in production deficit for the past two decades.
   
   Unlike gold, “hundreds of millions of people” have chosen to hold on to some form of silver whether it is coins, silverware, or silver bars, despite high silver prices, he found. If a severe shortage of silver occurred, additional silver supply could materialize from off-exchange or off-reported sources.
   
   Steel’s forecast outlook for silver includes increased mine output growth, and reduced official silver sector selling. Little likehood exists that additional silver hedging will occur, but a possible increase in lease rates could occur, he suggested. HSBC predicts silver supplies will total 905 million ounces in 2007 and 890 million in 2008.
   
   The possibility of increased geopolitical tensions could raise silver prices to $12.25/ounce, Steel said. However, the slight cooling of the commodity bull market could restrain investor demand.
   
   The HSBC analyst believes a modest recovery in jewelry demand will occur, while industrial demand will remain stable below 2005 levels.
7. [verwijderd] 8 maart 2007 08:04

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   Bank of China Starts Gold Option Trading in Jiangsu
   
   By David Harman
   07 Mar 2007 at 08:00 AM
   
   SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- The Bank of China will launch gold trading options this month for individual investors in Jiangsu, to aid in the control of losses due to fluctuations in the spot gold market, state-media Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday.
   
   The BOC Jiangsu Branch is the first commercial bank in China to start gold option trading for individual investors. It is currently being trialed in Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi and Nantong in Jiangsu province, but investors are limited to trading in U.S. dollars.
   
   Since the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) only provides spot gold trading, investors risk severe losses from price fluctuations. The BOC's gold options trading is regarded as an investment tool that reduces risk. Individual investors can buy call-options or put-options and also choose whether or not to execute the option, this reduces the risk of pass-book gold trading, a BOC official surnamed Zhang, said.
   
   A gold option provides an investor the right to buy or sell gold at a fixed price at some specified future date.
   
   "Since Shanghai Gold Exchange only provides spot gold trades, investors risk losses from severe price fluctuations. The BOC's gold options trade is regarded as an investment tool to reduce risk," Wang Ruilei, a senior analyst with Chengdu Gaosaier Gold & Silver Co. Ltd, previously said.
   
   He pointed out the gold price in options trading could be based on international price not the price in Shanghai Gold Exchange. Spot gold closed yesterday at $644.60 on the London Metals Exchange.
   
   In 2005, BOC was the first to launch pass-book gold trading in China, after starting gold deferred trading in 2006.
   
   At present, the SGE has no gold futures trading, but it is accelerating the approval process. China's futures trading is under the supervision of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), while the gold market is monitored by the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank.
   
   The CSRC previously said the development of gold futures trading, as well as other commodities, will be as a major task for the China this year.
   
   Futures contracts of only four products are listed for trading in China: copper, aluminum, natural rubber and fuel oil.
   
   Commentary
   
   Gold and metals futures trading in one of the largest consumer and producing countries is an absolute must. China’s gold futures trading aspirations are backed at ministry level; however, getting regulations in place will take some time.
   
   By year end, there may be official launch, but it's still very much an ideal at the moment.
   
   © Interfax-China 2007
   
   This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail david.harman@interfax-news.com.
   
8. [verwijderd] 14 maart 2007 09:04

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   Posted On: Tuesday, March 13, 2007, 2:04:00 PM EST
   
   A Day Of Unfounded Fear
   
   Author: Jim Sinclair
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   Dear Friends,
   
   Flight to quality certainly does not mean a flight to paper currency. Such a concept is total madness made up of the non-experienced, the perma-bull dreamers and dollar worshipers as an act of patriotism.
   
   Other than some activity in the USDX in the last few minutes of US Trading, the Exchange Stabilization Fund who understand very well what is occurring are holding their powder to defend the dollar at .8050 soon.
   
   So after all my lessons, history, teaching and construction of Formulas, Thesis, Doctrines and illustrations it is now time for me to fish or cut bait.
   
   My choice is to regain the courage of my youth, and do that which demands to be done. This may well not be for you nonprofessionals, but is for me.
   
   The extremely positive fundamental character of gold in the first flame of a meltdown is too hard for me to ignore.
   
   The Fed will do whatever is necessary to save the system from the first flame of meltdown, but what they MUST do is super bullish for gold and dollar bearish.
   
   I have been buying real and paper gold on the down and selling on strength with reasonably good fortune. Now for me it comes the time to take that good fortune and increase it by buying physical and paper gold on a scale down as long as the noobies wish to pound on it.
   
   I did not say gold shares simply and only, because I DO NOT wish to create regulatory conflict between my corporate position and my now 49 years of trading success.
   
   A flight to safety is not to the unsafe paper asset class, is not to plummeting dollars, is not to dollar denominated treasury instruments which are the same as dollar risk, but to GOLD, the only honest money.
   
   I believe in me -- you have no such obligation. Wish me luck!
   
   Sincerely yours,
   Jim
   
   
   
   
   
9. [verwijderd] 19 maart 2007 11:53

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   China to Relax Gold Shipment Rules, Central Bank Says
   2007-03-16 04:16 (New York)
   
   March 16 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's fastest growing major economy, will gradually relax restrictions on the import and export of gold as the country deregulates the precious metals market, the nation's central bank said.
   
   The country wants to involve overseas investors, including banks, in gold trading, the People's Bank of China said in its annual report on the nation's financial market, which was posted on its Web site today. The central bank gave no timetable.
   
   China is the world's fourth-largest gold miner. The nation raised production by 6.3 percent to 238 metric tons last year,bucking a global drop of 2.2 percent, London- based research company GFMS Ltd. said in January.
   
   The country ``aims to create a more relaxed environment for the development of the gold market,'' the report from People's Bank of China said.
10. [verwijderd] 20 maart 2007 16:03

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    GFMS forecasts gold de-hedging pick-up this year
    Pace of de-hedging picks up again in 2007 after a slow-down in the December quarter last year.
    
    Author: Tessa Kruger
    Posted: Monday , 19 Mar 2007
    
    JOHANNESBURG -
    
    Gold de-hedging is expected to total 7.5 million ounces (233 tonnes) this year if gold producers maintain current rundown rates of the global hedge book.
    
    International precious metals consultancy GFMS said in a quarterly report that the pace of de-hedging picked up again in the first quarter of this year (2007), after a slow-down in de-hedging in the three months ending December 2006.
    
    Major producers, Gold Fields and Barrick, have confirmed that they had bought back hedging positions in transactions completed in January and February and Peruvian miner Buenaventura bought back 0.5 million ounces (15 tonnes) of contracts in March this year.
    
    The fourth quarter of last year saw de-hedging decelerating to 1.12 million ounces or 35 tonnes.
    
    This contrasted with the "frenetic" pace of de-hedging that took place in the first half of last year. However, total de-hedging for 2006 reached 12.6 million ounces or 390 tonnes - a figure close to the record levels of 2004.
    
    GFMS said last year's aggressive run down in the global hedge book and rapid de-hedging between 2002 and 2004 had reduced the run rate of ongoing de-hedging.
    
    But additional large-scale hedge book restructures or buy backs could not be ruled out, as the outlook for the gold price remained positive.
    
11. [verwijderd] 22 maart 2007 11:40

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    Hi Gung Ho
    
    Las zojuist onderstaand bericht op Beurskings. Dit is toch koren op de molen van GATA (en nog wel voorgesteld door het IMF zelf.)
    Ben benieuwd welke vaart er achter zal worden gezet om e.e.a. ook daadwerkelijk uitgevoerd te krijgen.....
    
    Good Luck,
    HTG
    
    IMF Posts First Draft of Changes to Gold Loan Accounting
    
    St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) posted its first draft of the sixth edition to the “Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual.” Among the revisions were accounting changes for gold loans, which are not publicly disclosed at present, stating that all gold loans should be broken out into their own category to avoid double-counting of reserves.
    
    Voor het volledige artikel:
    www.beurskings.nl/viewtopic.php?p=284...
12. [verwijderd] 22 maart 2007 12:03

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    Gold and Silver Sitting on the Fence and Raring to Go
    
    
    By Roger Wiegand Printer Friendly Version
    March 16, 2007
    
    
    www.tradertracks.com
    
    “Precious metals traders had fingers burned on the profit-taking stove by selling stock index markets. Recent selling in stock indexes caused traders to sell good metals trades with profits because they needed the money to cover mediocre and poor trades in mainstream stocks. Further, there was disruption in the Yen carry trade. A rising Yen weakened stocks so gold stocks and other precious metal trades were sold to cover. Silver followed gold but refused to sell very much.” –Traderrog
    
    One drawback-advantage in gold is the availability to exit and settle a trade in 48 hours making it so handy and liquid enabling a quick clean-up after other market messes that didn’t work out so hot. This is why we saw the tumble in gold price recently. When the Shanghai Composite Index fell -9% in one trading day, spill-over into other global markets gave everybody a haircut with few exceptions. Those that were hurt and had to cover, did so by selling fast, liquid positions in gold. Silver followed as it trends with gold. We found it quite interesting silver didn’t sell much holding fast in these strong headwinds. This to me is a primary indicator that silver, in the silver and gold rally race this spring, will be the percentage winner by a substantial margin. Gold is no slouch either as we just saw a private report using proprietary information that a certain gold index should rally 40% for 2007. I have never seen that ratio before and its proven success rate is so powerful I cannot conclude anything else but that a +40% 2007 rally must be a reality. The proven value of this formula was 96% correct. I am convinced.
    
    We know there is large amount of stock trading using margin. Typically, traders are leveraging at a margin of 50% and the hedgies are pushing it 10-1 and in some cases, we have heard of 100-1. You cannot play in that ballpark unless you have massive cash reserves and exceptionally strong credit. Hedge Funds and the largest broker-dealers do this every day but those trading departments are so well funded and back-stopped, that on a bad day they could lose $50,000,000 and not even blink. They know they can make it back in a few days and then some, so why worry.
    
    Our gold and silver markets are tiny by comparison and when the big hitter’s short them for profits it’s immediately reflected in our metals prices. Some metals traders have complained ETF’s have stolen trades from the junior and senior metals stocks. This is partially true, but on the other hand, they have provided a newer, firm stability to these sectors as their fund ownership of physical metals erased much volatility. Our favorite senior silver stock is steadier than most as they have $millions in silver bars in their possession fully paid. Further, they have a huge cash pile and are busy using it for new reserves and to open a very promising silver mine in Mexico.
    
    We think the two lessons learned here are: (1) Gold and silver bullion is real money; not fiat money. When traders get cornered with bad paper, precious metals show their true worth by providing something even better than cash for bail-out tools. (2) Our second point is precious metals are regarded as THE top ranking asset that is not somebody’s else’s counter-party liability who’s owner may or not be able to pay.
13. [verwijderd] 29 maart 2007 22:19

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    Silver jewelry demand exceeds photography usage--GFMS - Reuters, Mar 29 2007 9:21AM
    
    www.silverinstitute.org/publications/...
    
14. [verwijderd] 2 april 2007 08:58

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    What's so great about gold?
    K. Gopalan
    
    The evolution of money and the need for a common medium of exchange are lucidly brought out in the article "Why money must be gold-plated'' (Business Line, February 28). But the author's wish to go back to the days of `Gold Standard' is a little surprising. `Gold Standard' was tottering even in the 1940s and had almost been abandoned when the Bretton Woods `Twins' were born.
    
    Well-known writers on `money' such as Geoffrey Crowther had absolutely no difficulty in explaining why the `Gold Standard' collapsed. Indeed, no leading economic theorist has suggested the revival or restoration of `Gold Standard'. This is because the cent per cent gold backing of a currency is no guarantee against fluctuations in its exchange value.
    
    The reality
    
    Coming to specific problems such as combating inflation, the `Gold Standard' may be a stronger base from which to tackle the issue, provided the volume and velocity of money alone is the desideratum of the inflationary trend. But in the modern milieu, it is not so.
    
    There are a few other factors much more potent than the quantity of money in circulation — the steep increase in the cost of essential imports, or the side-effects of increasing economic activity. In this situation, the earnings of the people will increase while, correspondingly, a rise in the supply of goods and services cannot be taken for granted. Indeed, this is the reality.
    
    Thus, as we analyse the phenomenon of inflation, the question of whether gold is at the foundation of the monetary structure and status of a currency does not crop up at all. This is because there are other forces at play which are of greater relevance.
    
    In these days of complex world trade, governments and central banks are often forced to regulate the exchange rates of their currencies and this warrants `intervention'. The related `open market operations' cannot but have an impact on the value of the currency.
    
    Fascination about gold
    
    In this e-commerce and Internet era, what is essential for a strong and stable currency is a strong and healthy economy. The status of the US dollar and China's yuan proves this . It is almost puzzling that in spite of persisting current account deficit for years on, nothing serious has overtaken the US economy or its dollar! As long as it is a supreme economic power, none would be interested in what gives abnormal strength to the dollar. We can safely conclude that gold, at any rate, is not one. Similarly, the world is both persuading and sometimes pressurising China to revalue the yuan, but China is in no mood to yield! This is just on account of the strength of its economy — both in growth and external trade. People hardly think of any other factor.
    
    It may, thus, not be drastic to conclude that the proverbial dependence on gold in monetary matters has declined steeply, and a revival of its indispensability is not felt to be necessary. It can at best be one among other securities to back a currency. India is home for several tonnes of gold, privately held by the people. But the percentage of gold supporting the rupee is quite low.
    
    Bertrand Russell would question the `rationale' of laboriously shifting gold from deep mines in South Africa just to put them in underground vaults of central bank buildings in far-off places. He would also wonder what all this fascination for gold is about!
    
    (The author is a Bangalore-based freelance writer.)
    
15. [verwijderd] 5 april 2007 08:28

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    Global gold output fell to 10-yr low in 2006
    
    By: Mariaan Olivier
    
    Published: 4 Apr 07 - 14:05
    
    Global gold production had fallen to a ten-year low last year, when output registered a "substantial" 3% decline of 79 t, a survey released on Wednesday showed.
    
    www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_...
    
16. [verwijderd] 9 april 2007 11:28

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    Don't worry, be happy
    
    The US Labor Department announced a 180,000 increase in non-farm payroll jobs during March and economists had expected a 142,000 increase. It is not exactly as if economists have any credibility in predicting payroll data, never mind that the data is incredibly volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to material revisions -- so why all the fuss? The fact that payroll data can affect the current price for bonds and the dollar is in itself testament that traders have very little sense of what is really important. Payroll data is actually a lagging indicator of economic activity, not a leading indicator, but that is a story for another day.
    
    Because of the strong payroll data the dollar rallied and bonds fell. The market was hoping the Fed would lower interest rates in response to economic woes stemming from the real estate fiasco. If the economy is growing strongly the Fed may not lower rates and could even raise rates. Higher interest rates are, of course, good for the dollar; or so they believe.
    
    As you probably know, I don't believe the dollar is going to hold onto these exchange levels. Neither does the IMF. According to Reuters, in its latest draft World Economic Outlook the IMF argued "extraordinarily aggressively” for a correction in exchange rates (i.e. for the dollar to fall) to reduce the massive US current account deficit.
    
    Meanwhile China's state run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp., which happens to be the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil (just over 10%), began paying for its oil in euros instead of dollars. And Japanese refiners, who cumulatively buy nearly a quarter of Iran's oil production, apparently said that while they are still paying in dollars they would be willing to switch to yen if asked. Iran is the world's 4th largest oil producer, and exporter, and has the 3rd largest oil reserves. If this trend takes hold it does not bode well for the dollar. No wonder the US wants to wage war with Iran: when Saddam Hussein threatened to start trading oil in euros instead of dollars he was quickly deposed.
    
    Many traders and investors don't care about stuff like this; it takes too long to have an impact. For most of these guys a long-term investment means holding a position over the long weekend. Instead they focus on payroll data, consumer sentiment, and Ben Bernanke's mood to give them guidance. So let's look at some more US data, just for the fun of it.
    
    Housing inventory in 18 major metropolitan areas increased by 6.5% in March, well above the 22-year average of 1.7%. It seems that some sellers are not going to wait for spring and are putting their homes on the market earlier this year. The inventory of unsold homes in these 18 metropolitan areas is up 35% from last year.
    
    Month to month economic data is so volatile that one really should not rely on it for anything other than entertainment. Watching the market react to every bit of new data can, however, be quite entertaining.
    
    This week we learned that the service sector in the US cooled down in March, as it did in February, but that factory orders rebounded in February (latest figures released). If we dig a bit deeper into the February factory orders we see that the rebound was mostly due to orders for airplanes, hardly a harbinger of widespread economic growth. Excluding transportation orders, US factory orders actually fell 0.4% in February after falling 5.7% in January. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, an indication of business investment, fell 2.4% in February after falling 6.2% in January.
    
    In the US the question is whether the fallout from the real estate sector is going to materially hurt economic growth or not. Meanwhile, in China, the government is seriously trying to curb speculation and liquidity.
    
    China will raise its banks' reserve requirements for the third time this year on April 16th. The latest 0.5% increase brings the reserve requirement to 10.5% and comes on top of repeated increases in interest rates as well as curbs on investments in real estate, auto manufacturing and other industries during the past year. Apparently the Chinese government's efforts to curtail investment growth and speculation have had very little impact.
    
    No wonder. Monetary growth in China, as measured by M2, is running at 17.8% and I bet that M3 growth is even higher. Essentially that means the yuan is losing about 20% of its buying power every year so the only rational thing to do is to spend the money as fast as possible. If you hold onto the currency you lose 20%. If you buy something useful you'll at least have something useful and if you gamble with the money you still come out ahead as long as you don't lose more than 20% a year. That is why monetary inflation leads to an increase in the velocity of money and a tendency towards ever more speculation.
    
    Regardless of the rhetoric about prudent monetary policy, management of liquidity and monitoring of debt levels, the bottom line is that the Chinese banking industry is skating on thin ice. Excessive loans for ill-conceived capital projects and an astounding large percentage of non-performing loans simply means extra-ordinary systemic risk for China's financial system. With its centrally planned government and huge foreign exchange reserves the government could always intervene, and I fully expect it to, but that does not mean the country can withstand an economic downturn and financial meltdown unscathed.
    
    We are living in interesting times, and we should make the most of it. Got gold?
    
    Paul van Eeden
    
17. [verwijderd] 11 april 2007 10:02

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    De hier aangedragen argumenten doen ook mij een positie in edelmetalen overwegen.
    Gesteld voor de keuze tussen goud en zilver zie ik als volstrekte leek tot mijn verbazing dat sprake is van een verhouding van ongeveer 1:50.
    Rijst de vraag: is dit historisch gezien normaal?
    Is die verhouding min of meer constant of fluctueert hij fors bijvoorbeeld tussen 1:20 en 1:60?
    
    Zeer erkentelijk voor een reactie,
    
    w
18. [verwijderd] 13 april 2007 10:27

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    Zelf inmiddels achterhaald dat de verhouding kan fluctueren tussen 1:20 en 1:90. Daar zitten we zo een beetje tussenin.
    Welke factoren daarop van invloed zijn is mij nog niet duidelijk.
    En dus evenmin welk van de twee de beste keus is.
    
19. [verwijderd] 15 april 2007 08:55

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    Goldfinger Brown's £2 Billion Bullion Blunder
    
    By Holly Watt and Robert Winnett
    The Times, London
    Sunday, April 15, 2007
    
    www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politi...
    
    Gathered around a table in one of the Bank of England's grand meeting rooms, the select group of Britain's top gold traders could not believe what they were being told.
    
    Gordon Brown had decided to sell off more than half of the country's centuries-old gold reserves and the chancellor was intending to announce his plan later that day.
    
    It was May 1999 and the gold price had stagnated for much of the decade. The traders present -- including senior executives from at least two big investment banks -- warned that Brown, who was not at the meeting, could barely have chosen a worse moment.
    
    In the room, just behind the governor's main office, they cautioned that gold traditionally moved in decades-long cycles and that the price was likely to increase. They added that even if the sale were to go ahead, the timings and amounts should not be announced, as the gold price would plunge.
    
    "The timing of the decision was ludicrous. We told them you are going to push the gold price down before you sell," said Peter Fava, then head of precious metal dealing at HSBC who was present at the meeting. "We thought it was a disastrous decision; we couldn't understand it. We brought up a lot of potential problems at the meeting."
    
    Martin Stokes, former vice-president at JP Morgan, who was also present, said: "I was surprised they had chosen the auction method. It indicated they did not have a real understanding of the gold market."
    
    According to other sources, however, Bank of England officials told those present they had "little say" about what was going to happen and that they were "doing what they were told." This was a decision made by Brown and his inner circle, who appeared uninterested in their expert advice.
    
    Ian Plenderleith, the senior Bank executive hosting the meeting, is nevertheless understood to have compiled a note on the meeting for the Treasury. It is one of several key documents that are thought to disclose the warnings ignored by ministers.
    
    Eight years on, the advice appears even more pertinent.
    
    The price of gold has almost trebled and the loss to the taxpayer has been calculated by one leading firm of accountants at more than £2 billion.
    
    The decision to sell 400 tons of gold is seen in City circles as a financial bungle on the scale of the Tories' "Black Wednesday" that cost the taxpayer £3.3 billion, according to Treasury estimates.
    
    Dominic Hall, a former gold dealer who now runs thebulliondesk.com, a website for the gold market, said: "Brown was keen to throw mud at the opposition over Black Wednesday but this was a financial disaster on a similar scale."
    
    As Brown inches closer to the premiership -- he had his first private meeting with President George W. Bush in Washington on Friday -- his record as chancellor is coming under increasing scrutiny. For the past 18 months The Sunday Times has been battling the Treasury to release the advice it received on the gold sales under freedom of information laws. Brown's department has sought -- so far successfully -- to use a range of legal exemptions to block disclosure.
    
    In its last response to requests by The Sunday Times, the Treasury stated: "We have decided that it is not in the public interest to release further information."
    
    Inquiries by this newspaper, however, have uncovered new details that Brown's political opponents say raise fresh questions over his style of leadership and his apparent failure to heed advice from experienced officials. It follows damaging revelations last month when the Treasury was forced to disclose official documents showing how the chancellor ignored similar warnings over his 1997 tax raid on pension funds.
    
    This weekend key insiders involved in the discussions to sell off Britain's gold revealed how Brown railroaded through the decision despite internal concerns and misgivings within the City.
    
    The story starts on May 7, 1999. For all but the most eagle-eyed financial experts, it seemed like another dull Friday in parliament. The Treasury, however, hoped it would be the perfect moment to bury news that it was to launch an unprecedented sale of Britain’s gold reserves.
    
    The news was slipped out by Patricia Hewitt, then a junior Treasury minister, in answer to a written parliamentary question placed by a Labour backbencher. "Today we are announcing a restructuring of the UK's reserve holdings to achieve a better balance in the portfolio by increasing the proportion held in currency. This will involve a programme of auctions of gold," she said.
    
    "The Treasury intends to sell 125 tons of gold, 3 percent of the total reserves, during 1999-2000, with the Bank of England conducting five auctions on the Treasury's behalf. Auctions will be held every other month starting in July."
    
    The answer was later shown to be wholly misleading as the government actually planned to sell 400 tons before 2002, representing more than half the country's gold.
    
    Hewitt's figure of 3 percent referred to "total reserves" which, apart from gold, included tens of billions that the government borrows on the international currency markets, rather than the gold reserves actually owned outright by Britain.
    
    Sir Peter Tapsell, a Conservative backbencher who campaigned vigorously against the decision, said in a parliamentary debate in June 1999: "The written answer given by the economic secretary to the Treasury was extremely cursory and brief, and contained only a very small part of the story. ... The way in which the announcement was handled was disgraceful."
    
    Following the government's announcement of the selloff, other leading economies rushed to the defence of gold as the asset of last resort.
    
    On May 20, Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve and the world's most respected bank governor, said in response to Brown’s decision: "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. ... Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold. Fiat money paper [a technical term for legal tender] in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."
    
    The day before, Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of France who later became head of the European Central Bank, said: "I will simply say that as far as I am aware -- and this is not just the position of the Bank of France and our country but also the position of the Bundesbank, the Bank of Italy, and of the United States, and these are the four main gold stocks in the world -- the position is not to sell gold."
    
    For centuries gold had maintained its status as the only investment to retain its value and keep pace with inflation over the long term.
    
    In Victorian times the Bank of England stored gold equivalent to the value of all banknotes in circulation -- the so-called gold standard. This ensured that money had an intrinsic value and that governments could not simply print banknotes at will, which could quickly devalue sterling. However, the gold standard was suspended during the first world war as the country required huge sums of money to fund the military campaign. It was finally abandoned in the inter-war period.
    
    But gold remains an important asset for most of the world's big central banks. The United States currently holds 8,133
20. [verwijderd] 18 april 2007 13:06

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    Fears over Treasury losing control of gold left in its vaults
    
    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 12:32am BST 17/04/2007
    
    As Gordon Brown prepares for a grilling in the Commons over his fire-sale auction of Britain's gold at the bottom of the market, concern is mounting that the Treasury may have lost control over the small amount still left in its vaults.
    
    Peter Hambro
    Peter Hambro: 'real risk'
    
    Peter Hambro, head of Britain's largest pure gold mining company, said he believed the Bank of England may have leased out its bullion to earn extra yield.
    
    "The real risk is that the Treasury has lent out the remainder of the gold. It is very important to know whether the bank's gold lending is on a secured basis," he said. The concern is that counter-parties could default in a crisis such as the LTCM-Ashanti affair in 1998.
    
    "The whole point of gold is that it's not somebody else's paper currency. It's the stuff that keeps you alive when everything else goes wrong," he said.
    
    Central banks around the world have routinely lent out gold over the years to bullion banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. The IMF last year questioned if they had lent out more gold than publicly revealed, a situation that would leave the market a large overhang of "short" positions. The Treasury said last night that it would look into any possible gold loans.
    
    With gold now trading at $690 an ounce, Mr Brown's decision to break ranks with the US, Japan, France, and Germany by selling off 395 tonnes of gold has cost taxpayers more than £2bn.
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    In a move that astonished dealers, Mr Brown insisted on selling the gold in open auctions. The first sale drove the price down to $254, the low-point of an 18-year slide. There were 17 auctions between July 1999 and March 2002 yielding an average of $274.9 an ounce.
    
    Ross Norman, director of TheBullionDesk.com, said the reason for the sales was to support the fledgling euro. The proceeds were switched into 40pc euros, 40pc dollars, and 20pc yen. "His motives were political, but it was carried out in an incredibly foolish way, just as the market was turning up."
    
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