mjmj schreef op 4 januari 2015 14:40:
Op zerohedge/commentaar speculeren ze over de Neuro.
bv
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I would like to point out a few things with the "myth" that a new NEURO would be the end of the German export machine.
1) Annual German GDP growth from 1948 to 1999 (last year of a free floating DM) was 2.3% per annum. Since the introduction of the EUR its been 0.8% per annum. Now while exports and growth don'T directly go hand in hand -- in Germany -- there is a direct coorelation. Thus, Germany has actually exported less, when compared to exports as a % of GDP now than in 1999 with the DM.
2) Germany (as well as Austria and the Nethlerlands) have next to no natural resources. They must import all raw materials, add their German "value added" engineering and re-export said stuff -- many times to the original countries of origin. If a NEURO comes into existance (which is a German play on words, NEU = new while Nord Euro is what it would stand for -- its quite catchy) the cost of raw materials, and energy would fall through the floor here. It would lead to additional consumer spending as the average person needs to spend less on their energy and gas bills and more on stupid shit that they don't need.
3) Exports to the PIIGS+France have been cratering since 2010. This is something that EVERY FINANCIAL NEWS SOURCE (except ZH) has ignored, especially in Germany. The German media has to keep the myth going that if Germany leaves the EUR no one can buy a new Mercedes in Italy anymore. I would venture to say this is not only wrong, but horribly misleading. Right now in Spain for example, with unemployment at 30% people cannot afford a new Siemens washing machine, Bosch power drill -- muss less a pretty new 3 Series. If the PIIGS+France can decouple and devalue these people who have been pushed out of the labor market (or are still "employed" but under-employed) will be able to afford these new fancy tid-bids.
I say all this to say that a NEURO wouldn't be the end of German exports, but would be the reignition thereof. The elities can never let this happen, as people would see quite quickly that they do not need them anymore and they lose their power. (See Germany 1948-1999 the US from 1945-1973) I think Germany intetionally inflicts this economic schorched earth policy on the South of Europe for one reason and one reason only -- skilled labor.
Right now things are so shitty in the PIIGS+France many skilled laborers are packin up and heading to Germany where they can get jobs. While the unskilled labor makes a B-line to France and the UK. Its a socially, great gig the Germans have going for them at this point & time. The German demographic hole is a massive culture-ending nation-bankrupting problem coming down the pipe for Germany like Japan is experiencing now. (Germany isn't nearly that bad -- but they need 5-10 million more people) I think they are stretching this out to get as many skilled laborers from the PIIGS+France to move here. This is just my tin foil hat having.