ArcelorMittal LU1598757687

MEI ARCELOR MITTAL VOOR BELIEVERS

1. Toekomstbeeld 20 mei 2017 23:23

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   2 Top Steel Stocks to Consider Buying in 2017
   As the steel industry outlook improves, Nucor and Steel Dynamics should be on your radar.
   
   Reuben Gregg Brewer (TMFReubenGBrewer) May 20, 2017 at 11:20AM
   When United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) reported earnings, management's lousy outlook took the entire steel industry down with it. But don't get too caught up in the negative news -- there are some really great steel stocks that deserve a second look. Two of the top steel stocks for 2017 are Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) and Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD).
   
   The industry giant
   Nucor is one of the biggest steel industry players in the United States (ter vergelijk Q1 2017: de omzet van Arcelor Mittal voor de regio NAFTA was 4,5 miljard USD en die van Nucor was 4,8 miljard USD wereldwijd).
   
   The company has a relatively low debt level (roughly 30% of the capital structure), modern electric arc steel mills, and a pay structure that includes a variable profit-sharing component. Taken together, these features afford the company a huge amount of flexibility -- which helps explain why Nucor managed to remain profitable through most of the recent steel industry downturn (it lost money in 2009, but has been profitable since). No other major steel company can make that claim. It also managed to keep increasing its dividend annually through the deep downturn, with a streak that's now up to 44 years.
   
   An important differentiating factor is Nucor's use of downturns to expand its business into new areas of the steel industry (for example, it recently inked its third acquisition in the steel tubing space, quickly building scale in a new business segment) and even enter new countries (Canada and Mexico). At this point, Nucor is easily one of the most diversified and well-positioned U.S. steelmakers. That gives it plenty of avenues for profitable growth as the U.S. steel market starts to strengthen.
   
   To put some numbers on that, Nucor's first-quarter earnings came in at $1.11 a share (ter vergelijk: Q1 2017 Arcelor Mittal USD 98 cent per share), up from $0.27 in the year-ago period. The first quarter's tally was also more than double the $0.50 a share the company earned in the fourth quarter of 2016 (ter vergelijk: Q4 2016 Arcelor Mittal USD 40 cent per aandeel). In other words, the results prove that Nucor's focus on financial strength and business diversity is working. If you are looking to own an industry leader, Nucor is the name for you.
   
   A similar playbook
   Steel Dynamics doesn't have as diverse a business as Nucor. However, it has learned a thing or two from its larger peer (the company's CEO and co-founder spent 12 years at Nucor). For example, Steel Dynamics makes use of electric arc furnaces and has been investing during the downturn to expand its capabilities. Electric arc furnaces are, to vastly simplify things, easier to turn on and off than the blast furnaces that underpin U.S. Steel's business. That helped Steel Dynamics turn a profit in six of the last eight years. (U.S. Steel, for reference, has bled red ink in seven of the last eight years).
   
   Nucor is the most diversified U.S. steel mill, with Steel Dynamics a little more focused.
   
   Expanding during the lean years, meanwhile, is a statement to the company's strength (long-term debt is roughly 45% of the capital structure) and long-term focus. And, like Nucor, using the downturn to improve the business has prepared Steel Dynamics well for the upturn. First-quarter earnings rang in at $0.82 a share, up from $0.26 a year ago and an adjusted $0.43 a share in the fourth quarter of 2016. Like Nucor, Steel Dynamics appears ready for an upturn.
   
   That said, it's a smaller and less diverse company than Nucor. However, it's easier to grow off of a small base than it is to grow from a large one. So Steel Dynamics might be a good option for investors with more of a growth focus.
   
   The outlook is improving
   The problem with U.S. Steel is that it appears to have underinvested during the downturn, leaving it playing catch-up now that the steel industry is starting to pick up again. Nucor and Steel Dynamics had a different approach and are now starting to reap the rewards of the investments they made during the downturn. Meanwhile, both use modern and flexible electric arc furnaces, which helped them muddle through the downturn more profitably than peers -- and should soften the blow if the industry starts to struggle anew. If you are looking for a steel company to buy in 2017, Nucor and Steel Dynamics should be on the top of your wish list.
   
   www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/20/2-t...
   
   Tip om eventjes de tabel in het artikel te bekijken. Mooie vergelijking met Arcelor Mittal.
   
2. Toekomstbeeld 20 mei 2017 23:48

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   In India word deze maand door diverse staalproducten geboden op grote Iron Ore velden/gronden. De regering veilt het ene blok na de andere. Er worden forse prijzen betaald tov een jaar geleden. Mede vanwege de verwachting vd kopende staalbedrijven dat de IO prijzen op een goed peil blijven.
   
   www.business-standard.com/article/com...
3. jessebrown 21 mei 2017 07:41

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   Blackstone Unveils $100 Billion Ambition for Infrastructure
   by Melissa Mittelman
   2017 M05 20 18:42 GMT+2 2017 M05 20 20:24 GMT+2
   Saudi Arabian wealth fund commits $20 billion to the strategy
   Buyout firm answers Trump call to rebuild U.S. infrastructure
   Blackstone Group LP, the world’s biggest private equity manager, is eyeing more than $100 billion in infrastructure investments with a new strategy anchored by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
   
   PIF agreed to commit $20 billion to the pool, and Blackstone plans to raise the same amount from other investors, the New York-based asset manager said in a statement Saturday. With leverage, Blackstone expects to have more than $100 billion in purchasing power for infrastructure projects, primarily in the U.S.
   
   The agreement between Blackstone and PIF is a non-binding memorandum of understanding, and the organizations are continuing to negotiate terms, they said.
   
   The partnership comes as top executives, including Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman and KKR & Co. co-CEO Henry Kravis, descend on Riyadh for the inaugural Saudi-U.S. CEO Forum, a weekend of dealmaking. The meetings, which have already yielded billions of dollars in deals between companies including oil giant Saudi Aramco and General Electric Co., are taking place as U.S. President Donald Trump visits the kingdom.
   
   Infrastructure investing has gained renewed attention as Trump’s administration vows to direct more private money toward improving roads, bridges and airports. The asset class also fits the bill for liability-driven investors in the U.S. and abroad seeking current income amid near-zero interest rates and negative yields elsewhere in fixed income.
   
   Urgent Needs
   
   “There is broad agreement that the United States urgently needs to invest in its rapidly aging infrastructure,” Blackstone President Tony James said in the statement. “This will create well-paying American jobs and will lay the foundation for stronger long-term economic growth.”
   
   Schwarzman is a top confidant to Trump from outside the White House. After he was elected, Trump asked the Blackstone billionaire to form a group of business executives that would meet frequently with the president to discuss job creation and economic growth. Schwarzman, 70, chairs the gatherings of the Strategic and Policy Forum.
   
   Investor interest is fueling ever-larger pools of capital devoted to infrastructure. Brookfield Asset Management Inc. scored $14 billion last year for a pool dedicated to the strategy, which was topped in January by Global Infrastructure Partners, which closed on $15.8 billion.
   
   Blackstone signaled its ambitions for a large fund in January, when its global head of private equity described what it would take to be a meaningful investor in infrastructure.
   
   “To be relevant in that end of the market I think you need to be deploying billions of dollars at a time, not hundreds of millions, and so you’re probably talking about a vehicle that’s $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion dollars of equity,” Joe Baratta said then in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
   
   Public Partnerships
   
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   Despite the buzz surrounding infrastructure, it’s not always an easy place for private investors to deploy their money. Lengthy planning and permitting processes can limit projects that are ready for investment, and not all projects generate attractive returns. Apollo Global Management LLC co-Founder Josh Harris said earlier this month that public-private partnerships, governments’ typical ploy for attracting private investment, often produce low returns that are hard to justify.
   
   “In infrastructure we need revenues,” Harris said during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “There’s a lot of financing, but no revenues.”
   
   Private investors therefore have to pick their spots carefully, finding projects that have different levers to pull. Airports are a key area of focus for providers of private capital, according to Glenn Youngkin, the president of Carlyle Group LP, which is raising money for a global infrastructure fund.
   
   “Airports, right out of the box, is the No. 1 target area right now,” Youngkin said Friday on CNBC. “They are an understood commercial entity, and there are airports starting to move this way” already.
   
   Oaktree, Stonepeak
   
   Oaktree Capital Group LLC is marketing two infrastructure funds, one focused on U.S. transportation and another for North American energy, the firm said last month. KKR is planning to raise money for a third infrastructure fund, the private equity firm said last month, after raising $3.1 billion for its current pool in 2015.
   
   EQT Partners in February finished raising 4 billion euros ($4.2 billion), almost 40 percent more than targeted, after less than six months for its third infrastructure fund. Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners, run by former Blackstone dealmakers, is targeting $5 billion for its third pool, people with knowledge of the matter said last month.
   
   Peter Grauer, chairman of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, is a non-executive director at Blackstone.
4. jessebrown 21 mei 2017 07:54

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   Begint het nu te komen,de brood nodige investeringen in de infra van de US,het eerste stapje is gezet.
5. jessebrown 21 mei 2017 08:01

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   Er lijkt een begin gemaakt te zijn,met de investeringen in de infra van de US
   het eerste stapje in de goede richting.
6. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 08:24

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   Mooi zo. China is goed begonnen.
   Als de USA volgt, verwacht ik een sterke heropleving van de staalsector.
   Nu wachten op de feiten, want tot nu toe zijn het grotendeels aannames.
7. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:10

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   AM is bezig met een corrigerende beweging omlaag, hierdoor staat er een HL indicatie:
   
   invst.ly/3zqpq
   
   Als deze beweging is afgerond volgt er nog weer een sterke of zwakke beweging omhoog.
   
   Het meest waarschijnlijk is dat de corrigerende beweging een ABC gaat worden, iets zoals dit:
   
   invst.ly/3zqq1
   
   Na de abc volgt dan een sterke of zwakke beweging omhoog, een hogere top richting 31 of 40 of een lagere top.
   
   Een alternatieve mogelijkheid is dat dit de ABC is:
   
   invst.ly/3zqrb
   
   In dit geval zal na afronding van deze beweging de beweging omhoog direct een vervolg krijgen.
8. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:17

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   quote:

   Reversal schreef op 21 mei 2017 11:10:

   AM is bezig met een corrigerende beweging omlaag, hierdoor staat er een HL indicatie:
   
   invst.ly/3zqpq
   
   Als deze beweging is afgerond volgt er nog weer een sterke of zwakke beweging omhoog.
   
   Het meest waarschijnlijk is dat de corrigerende beweging een ABC gaat worden, iets zoals dit:
   
   invst.ly/3zqq1
   
   Na de abc volgt dan een sterke of zwakke beweging omhoog, een hogere top richting 31 of 40 of een lagere top.
   
   Een alternatieve mogelijkheid is dat dit de ABC is:
   
   invst.ly/3zqrb
   
   In dit geval zal na afronding van deze beweging de beweging omhoog direct een vervolg krijgen.
   
   In hoeverre is de RS hierin verwerkt?
   

9. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:19

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   quote:

   Kerncentrale schreef op 21 mei 2017 11:17:

   [...]
   

   De RS?
10. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:24

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    Ik zeg het waarschijnlijk verkeerd. Als je de drie grafieken ziet, hoe moet ik dat zien ten opzichte van de verdeling 1:3, dus eerst b.v. 8 en nu 20 Euro per aandeel. Zie eerste grafiek. Ik begrijp de intentie wel, alleen niet de grafiek.
11. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:26

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    quote:

    Kerncentrale schreef op 21 mei 2017 11:24:

    Ik zeg het waarschijnlijk verkeerd. Als je de drie grafieken ziet, hoe moet ik dat zien ten opzichte van de verdeling 1:3, dus eerst b.v. 8 en nu 20 Euro per aandeel. Zie eerste grafiek. Ik begrijp de intentie wel, alleen niet de grafiek.
    

    Die is ook verwerkt in de historische koersen.
12. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:36

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    Ik zit sinds november 2016 in AM, stond de koers begin 2016 echt op 8:3 = bijna 3 Euro?? Ik wist uit de reacties van dit forum dat AM laag heeft gestaan maar ik had steeds in mijn achterhoofd dat dat in 2014/2015 was geweest en heb mij concentreerd op de huidige ontwikkelingen.
13. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 11:47

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    quote:

    Kerncentrale schreef op 21 mei 2017 11:36:

    Ik zit sinds november 2016 in AM, stond de koers begin 2016 echt op 8:3 = bijna 3 Euro?? Ik wist uit de reacties van dit forum dat AM laag heeft gestaan maar ik had steeds in mijn achterhoofd dat dat in 2014/2015 was geweest en heb mij concentreerd op de huidige ontwikkelingen.
    

    De (voorlopige) bodem is inderdaad feb 2016 geweest.
14. Toekomstbeeld 21 mei 2017 13:02

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    www.theage.com.au/business/markets/as...
    
    The spot price of iron ore rallied 1.8 per cent to $US62.69 a tonne on Friday as Chinese steel futures rallied. Credit Suisse analysts see the potential for further gains in the second half of 2017, arguing that steel mills in China have managed their inventories better than thought and concern about iron ore stockpiles at ports in China have been overstated.
15. Toekomstbeeld 21 mei 2017 13:26

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    Iron ore is rallying again, and Credit Suisse thinks there's further gains to come
    
    Business Insider Australia
    May 17, 2017, 7:40 AM 299
    
    Looking further ahead, analysts at Credit Suisse think the recent rebound in iron ore markets may be sustained in the months ahead.
    
    "Given solid demand on the ground, record iron ore consumption, and our view that the macro environment will be positive into the year end, we believe risks are now weighted to the upside for the iron ore price in Q3," the bank said in a note released earlier this week. "We do not expect a rapid rebound in pricing, but we believe the price can rise from the current iron ore price of $61 a tonne. We retain our forecast of $70 a tonne for Q3."
    
    That forecast, the bank says, is partially underpinned by an expectation that the government will seek a "strong and stable economy" before the 19th Party Congress later in the year.
    
    
16. Toekomstbeeld 21 mei 2017 13:35

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    Helaas een artikel waar voor betaald moet worden. 9 uur geleden geplaatst door AFR.com
    
    De titel doet vermoeden dat het wel ongeveer van dezelfde strekking zal zijn als wat Credit Suisse in de posting hierboven uitspreekt. Een IO prijs die weer wat gaat stijgen in Q3 naar USD 70.
    
    Indien dat uitkomt zullen Q3 en Q4 nog betere kwartalen worden dan wat ik al had ingeschat (EBITDA 7,9 miljard USD voor het jaar). Dan zal men over de 8 miljard USD gaan.
    
    Credit Suisse says iron ore spot prices may extend rebound into ...
    
    www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-ore/...
    Vertaal deze pagina
    9 uur geleden - Iron ore spot prices may extend a recent rebound, perhaps into the second half, if China's steel market steadies, according to analysts at Credit ...
17. Toekomstbeeld 21 mei 2017 13:46

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    BUSINESS NEWS | Sun May 21, 2017 | 6:21am EDT
    
    Saudi says extending oil cuts, adding small producers enough to drain stocks
    
    Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Sunday that extending the current agreement on global oil supply cuts until March next year, and adding one or two small producers to the pact, should be enough to reduce oil inventories.
    
    "We believe that continuation with the same level of cuts, plus eventually adding one or two small producers ... will be more than adequate to bring the five-year balance to where they need to be by the end of the first quarter 2018," Khalid al-Falih told a news conference in Riyadh.
    
    www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil-s...
18. [verwijderd] 21 mei 2017 13:50

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    quote:

    Toekomstbeeld schreef op 21 mei 2017 13:35:

    Helaas een artikel waar voor betaald moet worden. 9 uur geleden geplaatst door AFR.com
    
    De titel doet vermoeden dat het wel ongeveer van dezelfde strekking zal zijn als wat Credit Suisse in de posting hierboven uitspreekt. Een IO prijs die weer wat gaat stijgen in Q3 naar USD 70.
    
    Indien dat uitkomt zullen Q3 en Q4 nog betere kwartalen worden dan wat ik al had ingeschat (EBITDA 7,9 miljard USD voor het jaar). Dan zal men over de 8 miljard USD gaan.
    
    Credit Suisse says iron ore spot prices may extend rebound into ...
    
    www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-ore/...
    Vertaal deze pagina
    9 uur geleden - Iron ore spot prices may extend a recent rebound, perhaps into the second half, if China's steel market steadies, according to analysts at Credit ...
    

    Als hij de pagina laadt kun je snel op cancel klikken en krijg je de paywall niet te zien.
    
    The spot price of iron ore may extend its recent rebound into the second half of 2017 if China's steel market steadies, according to analysts at Credit Suisse.
    
    On Friday, spot ore with 62 per cent content rose 1.8 per cent to $US62.69 a tonne, according to Metal Bulletin. The price recouped 2.1 per cent on the week, helping to pare ever so slightly the one-third drop it has incurred since hitting $US94.86 — its highest level since 2014 — in February.
    
    The precipitous fall that started in February has kept investors on the back foot and has seen analysts pulling back their forecasts for the bulk commodity.
    
    Indeed, in a May 18 research note, Credit Suisse analysts lowered their second-quarter iron ore price forecast to $US65 a tonne, from an earlier $US95. However, they still see the price averaging $US70 in the third quarter before sliding to $US55 in the final three months of the year. That brings the firm in line with other forecasts, some of which are far more bearish.
    
    The spot price would need to lift 12 per cent from its Friday close to reach the Credit Suisse $US70 target before retreating 21 per cent to $US55, signalling that more volatility lies ahead.
    
    For 2017 overall, Credit Suisse has cut its forecast for spot iron ore by 10 per cent to $US69 a tonne from $US77. It made no changes to any of its quarterly or annual forecasts for next year; it sees iron ore averaging $US58 in 2018.
    
    "Our team does not believe that the iron ore price is spent for the year," the CS analysts wrote. "We consider that outsized risks were priced into iron ore in early May and the price correction has been overdone."
    
    Analysts at Citi predict iron ore prices will flatline at US$60/t to the end of this year, and continuing to fall moderately to US$54/t by mid-2018. They base their forecasts on the existing and increasing oversupply in the market, as well as the slowdown of overall Chinese steel demand growth.
    
    "Additional supply from Australia, Brazil and India should see continued downward pressure on iron ore prices" in the second half of the year.
    
    But the Credit Suisse analysts pointed to China government efforts to stabilise the local economy ahead of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to be held in Beijing in November, at which Xi Jinping is expected to solidify his power base.
    
    China's central bank also has promised to maintain a prudent and neutral monetary policy and the government has indicated, through state-media, that it will make financial stability, not debt control, its top priority.
    
    Credit Suisse political strategists note that the pace of policy softening suggested "a higher probability that the authorities will inject more liquidity" in the second half of this year ahead of the Congress to ensure there is enough optimism in the economy and financial markets. "That would be a positive for infrastructure and property developments, and consequently the demand for iron ore."
    
    Steel prices rebounding
    
    The other positive for iron ore is that China's steel market appears to be in a better position than previously thought, CS argued. That's one reason why Shanghai rebar steel futures have recovered to their highest in six weeks.
    
    Tangshan city in Hebei province, China's biggest steelmaking region, has an ongoing campaign through the end of May to suspend and fine mills that fail to meet emission standards. Chinese officials also are continuing efforts to permanently shut illegal steel mills.
    
    "It would take a while for any suspended mills to restart their production. So maybe steel prices can keep improving till middle of next month, then we will see a slowdown in the market again," a Shanghai-based trader told Reuters.
    
    The most active rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4 per cent at 3244 yuan ($US471) a tonne on Friday, after rising as far as 3249 yuan, its loftiest since April 5. The construction steel product gained 8.1 per cent last week.
    
    Declining rebar inventories also pointed to firm demand on the ground, traders said.
    
    Stocks of rebar at Chinese traders have fallen 46 per cent from a 10-month high in February to 4.51 million tonnes as of May 12, according to data tracked by SteelHome consultancy.
    
    That data matches what CS heard in meeting in early May with representatives from seven steel groups in Hebei Province, and a steel trader: "The steel mills had very little inventory on hand, order books were full for May and the mills were starting to book sales for June."
    
    Stockpile rethink
    
    Profit margins also are improving for steel mills as prices for steel products recover at the same time as prices for raw materials, both iron ore and coking coal, have reset at lower levels from earlier this year. And so the mills are starting to switch back to higher grade imported ore from lower grade domestic ore and scrap.
    
    As for the debate about high ore stockpiles within China, CS said it's less concerned about stockpiles per se because as newer blast furnaces take a more dominant position in the steel industry, from older induction furnaces, more ore is being consumed on a daily basis.
    
    Inventory of imported iron ore at 46 Chinese ports reached 134.25 million tonnes on May 12, up 2.3 million tonnes from the previous week, according to consultancy SteelHome. It was the biggest such inventory since SteelHome began compiling the data in 2004.
    
    CS however cited an alternate measure of iron ore stock levels provided by Mysteel's survey of 65 steel mills in China. The survey indicated that imported iron ore stocks owned by the steel mills and located in the mill yard, at port, and inbound on ships, remained at a normal to low level of 23 days's supply coverage.
    
    "There is no record stockpile seen in this measure," CS said.
19. Toekomstbeeld 21 mei 2017 14:08

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    quote:

    MrTrumpHimself schreef op 21 mei 2017 13:50:

    [...]
    
    Als hij de pagina laadt kun je snel op cancel klikken en krijg je de paywall niet te zien.
    
    

    Super bedankt voor deze tip!
20. Peter Markus 21 mei 2017 14:19

    auteur info

    • Peter Markus

      Lid sinds: 08 sep 2015

      Laatste bezoek: 01 nov 2022

    • Aanbevelingen

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    •    Aantal posts: 4.651

    Als mijn verwachtingen uitkomen hebben we eind van de week een koers van 21+ op de borden.
    Morgen ongeveer 20.45.
    Helaas kan niemand dat zeker weten.
    Eens zien of dat gaat lukken.
    PM