avantiavanti schreef op 6 november 2019 07:40:
Voor wie interesse heeft, staat hele verhaal op analyst draadje. Nomura Instinet 5 november 2019.
PT onveranderd op 209$ post q3
Our Est vs. Consensus: Focus on Oppy in UCAhead of R&D Day and ACR/ARP – ConsensusView Underestimates Filgo in UC; Ph3 Data 1H20
GLPG will present data in RA and PsA for filgo at ACR/ARP on Nov 8-
13, followed by an R&D day on Nov 14 in NYC. At ACR/ARP, GILD/
GLPG will present further FINCH2 analysis at the American College of
Rheumatology, including pooled safety data (p. 7 for complete list of
abstracts). However, we believe these near-term events have drawn
attention away from the opportunity in ulcerative colitis US), which we view
as an underappreciated source of potential upside (and less competitive
filgo launch for GILD/GLPG). Ph3 data in UC from SELECTION1 is
expected in 1H20; tofacitinib was approved in UC in 2018, which we view as
derisking proof of efficacy for JAK inhibitors in this indication. The superior
safety and tolerability of filgo should enhance market uptake, particularly in
IBD where higher JAK doses appear to be required, and in the wake of
renewed safety warnings on tofa’s label, which makes our estimates highly
differentiated vs. consensus. See pp. 3-6 for a review on our market
assumptions and estimates, as well as a comparison to consensus in UC,
CD, and RA. We make minor updates to our model ahead of the R&D day;
p.8. Reiterate Buy.
Ulcerative Colitis Ph3 Data in 1H20: Consensus Underestimates
Opportunity and Derisking, in Our View. SELECTION1 data in 1H20 is
the next source of value for filgo, in our view. We believe the consensus
view around this indication underestimates filgo’s potential to provide a safer
JAKi option in light of ongoing Xeljanz safety scrutiny; Xeljanz was approved
in UC (with broad label) in 2018, providing proof of efficacy for JAKi
approaches in UC (and likely CD, in our view); pp. 3-6 for comparison.
Next Up ACR/ARP Nov 8-13: Data in RA and PsA: Summary P. 7. The
majority of GILD/GLPG’s presentations are related to subgroup analyses in
FINCH2, pooled safety results from the three FINCH trials (NCT02889796,
NCT02873936, NCT02886728), and LT safety from DARWIN-3
(NCT02065700). GILD to submit NDA by YE19 in U.S.; p. 7 for abstract list.
R&D Day Nov 14, Probably Still No Toledo Target. Mgmt. has previously
indicated the Toledo target would be disclosed on the launch of Ph2
programs (next year). Until then, we do not anticipate significant value of
Toledo to be incorporated into GLPG’s share price