OCI - 2020

1. [verwijderd] 22 oktober 2020 16:34

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   Dit schreven ze al in maart,nu 7 mnd later is er nog niks veranderd.
   
   Imagine Owning OCI (AMS:OCI) While The Price Tanked 64%
   Simply Wall St
   March 22, 2020
   
   It's nice to see the OCI N.V. (AMS:OCI) share price up 16% in a week. But that is little comfort to those holding over the last half decade, sitting on a big loss. In fact, the share price has declined rather badly, down some 64% in that time. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But it could be that the fall was overdone.
   
   See our latest analysis for OCI
   
   Because OCI made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
   
   In the last half decade, OCI saw its revenue increase by 7.3% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. The share price return isn't so respectable with an annual loss of 19% over the period. That suggests the market is disappointed with the current growth rate. That could lead to an opportunity if the company is going to become profitable sooner rather than later.
   
   The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
   
   ENXTAM:OCI Income Statement, March 22nd 2020
   ENXTAM:OCI Income Statement, March 22nd 2020
   It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
   
   A Different Perspective
   While the broader market lost about 24% in the twelve months, OCI shareholders did even worse, losing 57%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 19% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for OCI you should know about.
   
   
2. BultiesBrothers 22 oktober 2020 18:24

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   Het frappante vindt ik dat de Urea prijzen op dit moment wel weer op het niveau van september 2019 zitten (als ik het goed bekijk). Maar de koers bij lange na niet...
   
   Zie bijvoorbeeld dit:
   www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2...
3. Ruval 22 oktober 2020 18:53

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   quote:

   BultiesBrothers schreef op 22 oktober 2020 18:24:

   Het frappante vindt ik dat de Urea prijzen op dit moment wel weer op het niveau van september 2019 zitten (als ik het goed bekijk). Maar de koers bij lange na niet...
   
   Zie bijvoorbeeld dit:
   www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2...
   

   Ondersteunt mijn stelling dat groot deel van koersdaling helemaal niet OCI specifiek is, maar veel meer als gevolg van huidige Corona en dit soort aandelen totaal uit de gratie zijn
4. [verwijderd] 22 oktober 2020 20:48

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   Dit gegeven deed het aandeel Mosaic verdrievoudigen vanaf de low in maart (6,5) dit geld niet voor de Nitro (chemische fertilizers)
   
   U.S. fertilizer prices surge to decade high
   Prices spike amid investigation that raises prospect of countervailing duties.
   Bloomberg | Oct 03, 2020
   
   By Justina Vasquez
   
   Phosphate fertilizer prices in the U.S. corn belt had their biggest quarter in a decade as buyers cope with a supply shock caused by potential import duties against Morocco and Russia.
   
   Related: Fertilizer industry largely spared from COVID-19 impact
   
   Midwest prices for diammonium phosphate, or DAP, jumped 29% in the third quarter, the most since 2010, according to a Green Markets index. Prices for a lower concentration phosphate fertilizer also surged the most in a decade, by 34%. The two chemicals make up the primary component for many phosphate-based fertilizers used by American crop farmers.
   
   Prices spiked after U.S. fertilizer firm Mosaic Co. petitioned the U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. International Trade Commission in June, saying that fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia were unfairly subsidized. That prompted an investigation and raised the prospect of countervailing duties. The two countries are the largest sources of the commodity for the U.S. in the most recent crop year, through June.
   
   ADVERTENTIE
   
   Related: Synthetic fertilizer: Can’t live with it, can’t live without it
   
   The U.S. imported more than 2 million metric tons of phosphate fertilizers from Morocco last year, valued at $729.4 million, according to an International Trade Administration report citing U.S. Census Bureau figures. Imports from Russia totaled more than 767,000 metric tons and were worth $299.4 million.
   
   Russia’s largest producer, PhosAgro PJSC, recently said it stopped shipping products to the U.S. due to the investigation and is rerouting those volumes to Canada, Brazil and Russia.
   
   The value of U.S. purchases from the fertilizer import market fell 57% from the end May to the end of July, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, sending a supply shock through the industry and driving up domestic prices.
   
   “Russian and Moroccan suppliers have slowed imports to the U.S., and that’s tightened up supply and also contributed to rising prices,” Alexis Maxwell, research director at Bloomberg’s Green Markets, said in a phone interview.
   
   The import slowdown means Mosaic now holds more than 90% of the production market for phosphates in the U.S. -- increasing the influence of the Plymouth, Minnesota-based company, she said.
   
   “The fact that they can move the U.S. market so dramatically is because, effectively, they’re pretty much the only one left,” Maxwell said.
   
   The U.S. may cushion the cutback on Moroccan and Russian imports by seeking supply from China, the world largest finished phosphates producer, said Samuel Taylor, North American inputs analyst at Rabobank.
   
   “These countervailing duties scared people on supply,” Taylor said in an phone interview. “If we do get countervailing duties put in place, you’re probably just likely to see a change in global trade flows, but you’re not necessarily going to see any production limitations.”
   
   © 2020 Bloomberg L.P.
5. [verwijderd] 22 oktober 2020 20:52

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   En deze gaat maar door!
   
   Methanex Corporation (MEOH)
   NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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   30.21+1.20 (+4.14%)
   
6. [verwijderd] 22 oktober 2020 23:23

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   Ja hot gaat alleen maar verder omhoog meestal en in het verdom hoekje dan lijkt niets te helpen en voelt het alsof het alleen maar omlaag kan.
   
   En ja dan kan het dat een bedrijf wat er tov vorig jaar beter voor staat qua koers op de helft staat.
   
   De Q3 cijfers zullen niet spectaculair zijn dat verwacht ik althans niet en het is meer wachten op een partij uit de methanol sector die komt polsen wat de methanol tak van OCI moet kosten al ben ik bang dat dat dan niet volledig cash zal zijn aangezien niet genoeg partijen zo een bedrag cash hebben liggen of zo groot zijn dat ze even makkelijk met even een plaatsing van aandelen 2 miljard ophalen en dan de rest met beschikbare cash en kredietlijnen kunnen betalen.
   
   Een hoge koers voor die methanol bedrijven daar heb je niks aan als je er geen gebruik van maakt.
   
   
7. BultiesBrothers 22 oktober 2020 23:53

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   quote:

   jessebrown schreef op 22 oktober 2020 20:52:

   En deze gaat maar door!
   
   Methanex Corporation (MEOH)
   NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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   30.21+1.20 (+4.14%)
   
   

   OCI stijgt niet mee omdat Natgasoline en Beaumont stil liggen vanwege onderhoud. Mag hopen dat BioMCN beide lijnen wel draaien, want Methanol Rotterdam staat inmiddels ook ergens in de 230 range
8. BultiesBrothers 23 oktober 2020 00:11

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   China methanol prices hit seven-month high in October 2020/10/22 -
   
   SINGAPORE (ICIS)--China’s domestic methanol prices gained further ground in September and October and hit a seven-month high in late October, amid stable market fundamentals. On 21 October, ex-tank prices in Jiangsu rose to yuan (CNY) 1,955-2,020/tonne, up by 13% from the late-August level and beating the record set in March, ICIS data showed. Elevated domestic spot prices, the yuan appreciation and tightening overseas spot supply pushed up import discussion levels. The temporary supply shortage in the third quarter added fuel to the round of price rise starting in mid-June. But domestic supply began to show notable increases from August, with market fundamentals gradually stabilising in September-October and fewer turnaround plans are heard on the way. Domestic methanol output rose by 3.4% month on month in September, according to ICIS Supply & Demand Database. The average run rate of downstream olefins plants which were back to production from maintenance since August, has resumed relatively high levels and maintained high levels in recent years. Energy and chemicals futures reaped gains after China’s National Day holiday (1-8 October) and the mostly actively traded methanol futures contract MA101 rallied from mid-October. This has injected some optimism among market players about methanol prices in the first quarter of 2021. Expectations about Tianjin Bohai Chemical’s new methanol-to-olefin (MTO) project start-up and Fund Energy (Changzhou)’s MTO unit restart are quite likely to boost demand, market players said. Some of them are expecting that natural gas-based methanol production may be subject to gas supply curtailment both home and aboard, as the winter this year is likely to be unusually cold. Focus article by Sam Liang ICN
   
   Wederom positieve vooruitzichten op de methanol markt (MTO) tot begin 2021. En wederom geen aandacht op de beurs voor OCI ...
9. [verwijderd] 23 oktober 2020 13:44

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   UREA: Indian Department of Fertilizers approves awards for nearly 2.2m tonnes 2020/10/23
   ...Singapore 460,000 Samsung 184,000 Transglobe 150,000 Continental 150,000 Dreymoor 100,000 Fertiglobe 95,000 Amber 95,000 Sun International 45,000 SABIC 45,000 Total 2,184...
   
   Alles wat nog aangeboden werd is ook opgepakt door India.
   
   Daar zullen andere partijen die in afwachting zijn van lagere prijzen niet blij mee zijn al is het verschil van 600.000 ton ook niet zo bepalend voor de hele markt maar het is wel een signaal.
   
   Is ook geen actie die overeenkomt met een markt met overaanbod.
   
   Eens zien of de prijzen hier nog iets op gaan doen nu die tender eindelijk weg is en de focus weer naar andere tenders kan in de rest van de wereld.
10. BultiesBrothers 23 oktober 2020 14:02

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    UREA: Indian Department of Fertilizers approves awards for nearly 2.2m tonnes
    
    In India, the Department of Fertilizers has approved awards for the purchase of a total 2.18m tonnes of prilled and granular urea in RCF’s 9 October tender, for shipment by 16 November. RCF is expected to issue LOIs today. Offer validity has been extended twice and expires today. The delay in approvals was due to clearance of funds. The news comes as relief for suppliers who were concerned about RCF buying a limited volume, after delays in the tender process and following news of congestion at Indian ports. RCF India purchases (TBC) 9 October 2020 Supplier Quantity (tonnes) Ameropa 860,250 Swiss Singapore 460,000 Samsung 184,000 Transglobe 150,000 Continental 150,000 Dreymoor 100,000 Fertiglobe 95,000 Amber 95,000 Sun International 45,000 SABIC 45,000 Total 2,184,250 The lowest offers in the tender were at $279.25-279.94/tonne CFR.
    
    Laagste prijs op 279$/tonne CFR. Valt me niet tegen zozeer. Wel 10$ lager dan augustus
11. BultiesBrothers 23 oktober 2020 14:17

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    Fertiglobe had 350 000 ton aangeboden, waarvan nu 95 000 gekocht wordt. Moeten ze nu de rest aanbieden op de spot market?
12. BultiesBrothers 23 oktober 2020 14:20

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    Maar een partij als Yara en CF, die doen niet mee in zulke tenders? Of zijn het allemaal tussen handelaren en OCI is zowel producent als handelaar?
13. [verwijderd] 23 oktober 2020 14:26

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    Keypoints van OCI van kw 3 zijn: Schuldverlaging, minder rentelasten en stijgende volumes en verkoopprijzen. Winst onder aan de streep zou de kers op de taart zijn. Zijn er toevallig al verwachtingen uitgesproken door analisten?
14. [verwijderd] 23 oktober 2020 16:16

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    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 23 oktober 2020 14:17:

    Fertiglobe had 350 000 ton aangeboden, waarvan nu 95 000 gekocht wordt. Moeten ze nu de rest aanbieden op de spot market?
    

    Na het eerste aanbod wat in totaal uitkwam op 3.6 mio ton op 14 oktober en toen daarna bekend werd dat India iets van 280 wou betalen, daarna zag je in de 2de ronde van aanbod op 16 oktober dat het aanbod al omlaag was naar iets van 2 miljoen ton en dat Fertiglobe ook nog maar 95000 ton aanbood ipv de oorspronkelijke 375.000 ton.
    
    Tussendoor kwam natuurlijk dat Fertiglobe 1 van de 2 verkopers in de Ethiopische tender was en gekeken naar de historie koopt Ethiopie altijd in die hoek alleen, goede contacten blijkbaar onderling.
    
    En zo zijn er natuurlijk nog heel veel landen die allemaal tenders hebben maar natuurlijk niet van de omvang als een India welke dan ook meer prijs bepalend is en trend bepalend.
    
    280 is een goede prijs gekeken naar de futures die dan wel FOB zijn en CFR is natuurlijk duurder want er wordt gekeken naar de prijs voor de verkoper en bij FOB draagt deze niet de kosten en risicos van vervoer vanaf het moment dat het op het schip is geladen en bij CFR wel.
    
    Je ziet ook wel eens berichten voorbij komen dat OCI hoeveelheden koopt ergens anders vandaan dus ze handelen ook en mogelijk dat ze tegen de hogere prijs wel de mogelijkheid zagen om ergens anders hoeveelheid goedkoper te scoren en zo als handelaar er tussen te zitten maar met $10 lager dit voor het overgrote deel niet interessant was.
    
    Nog 2 weken en dan krijgen we de Q3 update en de update voor Q4 met daarin vast ook even aangestipt de gasprijs.
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 23 oktober 2020 16:53

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    Denk toch dat CF via afzet kanalen meedoet.
    
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    Current 28.23Average 38.05
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    Company Profile
    4 Parkway North
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    www.cfindustries.comSector(s): Basic Materials
    Industry: Agricultural Inputs
    Full Time Employees: 3,000
    CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products worldwide. Its principal nitrogen fertilizer products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products, as well as compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, farmers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
16. marcobol 23 oktober 2020 17:57

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    Zag Oci ook veel ammonia kopen deze week bij de concurrentie
17. eduardo3105 23 oktober 2020 19:13

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    Redelijk koersverloop vandaag. Ondanks weinig omzet een iets hogere koers. Lijkt dat er niet echt een verkoper was vandaag. En met 70858 en 2cent een behoorlijke eindveiling. Helaas ook nog niet echt een koper maar na deze teleurstellende week een hoopvol eind.
18. [verwijderd] 23 oktober 2020 20:02

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    quote:

    Hercule Poirot schreef op 23 oktober 2020 14:26:

    Keypoints van OCI van kw 3 zijn: Schuldverlaging, minder rentelasten en stijgende volumes en verkoopprijzen. Winst onder aan de streep zou de kers op de taart zijn. Zijn er toevallig al verwachtingen uitgesproken door analisten?
    

    Allerbelangrijkste keypoint: een positieve fcf (free cashflow)
19. BultiesBrothers 23 oktober 2020 23:51

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    quote:

    marcobol schreef op 23 oktober 2020 17:57:

    Zag Oci ook veel ammonia kopen deze week bij de concurrentie
    

    Wellicht omdat de ammonia lijn bij hun complex in Sorfert op dit moment stil ligt en moeten voldoen aan contracten? Dat ze op de spot markt moeten gaan kopen
20. [verwijderd] 24 oktober 2020 07:48

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    Yara International: An Extra Dividend Means 9.6% 2020 Yield
    Oct. 20, 2020 11:31 AM ET|5 comments | About: Yara International ASA (YARIY), YRAIF
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    Long Only, Value, Growth, Growth At Reasonable Price
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    Summary
    Yara delivered 3Q20 results today. Results were superb, and drove stock expectations up markedly.
    
    The company announced an extraordinary dividend of 18 NOK per share, bringing the total 2020 dividend up to 9.6% yield based on a 350 NOK share price.
    
    The company remains my largest holding in the agrarian sector, and the valuation is fair - appealing enough to buy. Buying here still means nearly a 4% yield for 2020.
    
    Yara is a "BUY".
    
    One of the absolute benefits of investing in geographies where companies base their recurring dividends on actual annual results is the frequency of extraordinary dividends. While I certainly do prefer a large degree of predictability, the mix of international and national stocks should, in theory, provide both an excellent baseline, with the potential for significant extra cash inflow during periods of company outperformance.
    
    I did not expect for this to occur during the worst pandemic in decades - but that's exactly what it has for the Norwegian company Yara (OTCPK:YARIY) (OTCPK:YRAIF). I've written substantial pieces on the company before - so for a more comprehensive overview of Yara, I point you to these articles. In this article, we'll look at results, the impact of these results, and how we could consider the company going forward.
    
    Let's get going.
    
    Yara is restructuring globally, reinforcing its focus on the customer and driving the business transformation into the future
    
    Yara - How has the company been doing?
    Let me start by saying that it's truly enjoyable when positive forecasts for companies materialize. Regardless of sector or company, when forecasting and seeing positive trends, and these trends then materialize, there's immense satisfaction even from a hardened financial writer and investor in such things. Little did I realize, however, that these trends would come during the very first, the actual year of my investing in the company.
    
    3Q20 was, in many ways, a record for the company.
    
    Lower material prices, in particular nitrogens, and off-season nitrate premium pricing combined with record product deliveries, resulted in some very impressive total revenues, nearly unaffected by COVID-19.
    From a negative $1.2B FCF in 4Q18 to a positive $2.49B, and positive FCF of $1.491B for 3Q20.
    The company's strategy shows successful, lower costs/CapEx, and improved earnings, a rare double trend.
    Overall performance was superb, especially considering COIVD-19.
    
    (Source: Yara 3Q20 Presentation)
    
    These results came in despite some lower nitrogen pricing. On a geographical basis, the Americas took increased deliveries of the company's products, despite impacts from lower nitrogen pricing impacting margins. Despite these negative trends, RoiC which we can see on a more general basis, is up in individual geographical segments as well, complete with EBITDA growth in Latin America and North America. Unfortunately, and as it has in all Norwegian countries, the weakness of the NOK impacted company results in the way of FX.
    
    The increased RoiC despite, in some cases, lower margins is something we see in other segments as well, like global plants, and some segments showed straight-line improvements in the face of COVID-19. Industrial solutions delivered significant EBITDA increases and improved margins. The company's AdBlue sales and base chemicals delivered strong contributions, highlighting the company's diverse product base.
    
    The company's improvement program is showing impressive results across the board.
    
    (Source: Yara 3Q20 Presentation)
    
    Despite the overall chaos in the world, Yara is not changing its investment plans, with $2.2B of planned investments for 2020-2021. The company has also managed to lower its debt through proceeds from Qafco, changes in net capital and working capital, and earnings. Current net debt stands at no more than $2.261B, which on the basis of quarterly EBITDA stands at no more than 1.0X, down from 1.6X.
    
    The company is also active in geographies like Africa, and over the quarter and YoY, has managed to deliver them to profitability, with a RoiC of 1.2%, and EBITDA of $33M for the quarter due to premium product sales, despite lower commodity pricing levels.
    
    Forecasts for the company remain positive, as producers have a lower-than historical stock of nitrate, which will likely lead to supply growth going into 2021 and 2022, together with a 2.7% nitrate consumption growth. Due to COVID-19, the risk to the company is a higher-than-normal project delay, but the fundamentals for the company remain rock-solid, and Yara remains in an extremely attractive position to capitalize on prospects. The company is the #1 market-leader in premium product and market presence, now has nine consecutive quarters of ROIC growth despite essentially being a cyclical, and one of the absolute lowest gearing ratios amongst its peers.
    
    One of the biggest news for dividend investors, however, is of course this part of the press release.