Wolf of WallStreet schreef op 18 juli 2022 00:34:
Good evening to everybody.
I am new to this forum. I am reading the comments about the ABN AMRO and I would like to share also mine with you.
I am holding 42k ABN AMRO shares since the beginning of the Covid-19. My average cost is around 9-10 Euro per share. I am planning to increase the number of shares to around 45-50k. I am happy that the share price is again at that price level. Just being positive about the latest price movements:)
A couple of points that we need to see before seeing a positive trend with ABN AMRO for a price level of 17-20 Euro per share.
- The cost/income ratio has to come down. They are still investing in IT infrastructure modernization and they booked an additional 50 million Euro cost in Q1 2022 for IT investments. The investors are losing a little bit of confidence around the 4.7 billion Euro cost baseline by 2024.
- The AML(witwassen) cost is still a problem. The CFO(Lars Kramer) did not give an exact date/cost/timeline around AML work. It was just bla bla type of answers in the Q1 2022 meeting.
- The replicated portfolio of the ABN AMRO is expected to react to interest changes in H1 2023. The NII(Net Interest Income) is still going down. There is still negative pressure here.
- The share repurchase program is totally disappointed for investors. They started with 500 million Euro this year and investors expected that it will continue this year. But it seems that the next share repurchase is next year after the 2022 results.
- The strategy of ABN AMRO is not clear. Is ABN AMRO and the Dutch government looking for someone to buy ABN AMRO or is ABN AMRO looking for another bank to buy? There is a nice amount of excess capital(5 billion Euro). The ABN AMRO and the Dutch government should better decide on a strategy. Options are super dividend, share repurchase, merger, acquisition, sell the remaining shares in AEX as before.
- The board of ABN AMRO with very over cautious(voorzichting) in the investor relationship meetings. They are talking and giving the impression that ABN is going into bankruptacy. Even ING is even more positive although they have a 5-7 billion Euro risk in Russia. ABN AMRO has a relatively less risk full portfolio. The %60 of the portfolio is hypotheek and house prices are going still up.
In general, I am positive about ABN AMRO. The current dividend level is around %5-6. Hopefully, they will decide about the strategy for ABN AMRO. My opinion is below 15 Euro/share is not even acceptable for any acquisition offer. Maybe with negotiation, we might see 17,5 Euro/share price level.
Good evening.