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China, Economische Wondere Wereldmacht

1. [verwijderd] 22 december 2004 16:54

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   quote:

   The artist schreef:

   Verder niets dan optimistische klanken en een op KT een bijna vergeten Hang Seng, tis rustig en stil, dus tis tijd om te springen.
   
   't zal niet lang meer duren of China is weer gespreksonderwerp numero UNO.
   
   The Artist
   
   

   Verre Obam Oosten
   Corné van Zeijl - 22-12-04, 13:30
   "Ik waardeer beheerder Rolf Stout van Fortis Obam. Hij zoekt zijn heil en neemt risico's in Azië, nu niemand daar meer naar kijkt..."
   
   => al moet ik meegeven dat ik het jammer vind, dat hij meer in Korea zit dan wat anders
   
   The Artist
2. [verwijderd] 22 december 2004 21:38

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   The IBM/Lenovo Deal: Victory For China?
   
   With the sale of IBM's personal computer business to Chinese company Lenovo Group Limited, two emerging trends quickly move front and center: The increasing commoditization of technology and the emergence of Chinese companies as global players. Wharton professors say both trends warrant watching and raise some key questions. Can Lenovo become a global player and integrate IBM's U.S. managers? Will IBM's PC customers defect to rivals like Dell Computer? Can state-owned Chinese companies become dominant in the international markets?
   
   The deal, announced Dec. 7, is valued at $1.75 billion in cash, stock and assumed liabilities. Once the agreement is finalized in early 2005, Lenovo will have three owners - the state with 46%, public investors with 35% and IBM with 19%. The Chinese government currently owns 57% of Lenovo. The company, to be managed primarily by former IBM executives working out of New York, will have 19,000 employees, with 10,000 of them coming from IBM. Of those 10,000, 40% are currently based in China and 25% in the United States.
   
   IBM benefits from the deal by getting rid of a business -- PCs -- that defined the company in the 1980s, but later became a drag on profit margins. Over the past decade, IBM has transformed itself into a services and software company, and set its sights clearly on China as a potentially huge market. It has shed disk drives, displays, desktop manufacturing and network processor businesses while adding PricewaterhouseCoopers' services firm PwC Consulting. IBM has also acquired software companies such as Tivoli, Rational and Informix.
   
   "Overall, this deal is another indicator of how resilient IBM is," says Wharton management professor Mark J. Zbaracki, who was a staff industrial engineer at IBM from 1982 to 1991. "IBM's strength historically has been reinventing itself." The company has manufactured everything from timekeeping devices to card sorting machines to videodiscs to typewriters and printers, only to jettison those businesses later. "This sale is symbolic of something going away -- the PC business in the U.S.," says Zbaracki.
   
   For Beijing-based Lenovo, the acquisition of IBM's PC business signals the arrival of China as a global player in key industries. Lenovo gains access to the worldwide PC market and quickly becomes a computer maker with more than $12 billion in annual revenues. It also gets exclusive access to the IBM logo for five years and permanently acquires the "ThinkPad" brand. "If you had to pick a U.S. brand to buy, this would be a big one," says Marshall Meyer, a Wharton management professor who has studied Chinese companies and traveled extensively in the country. "Public relations is a big component of Chinese management and a lot of people will see this as a victory for China."
   
   Michael Useem, head of Wharton's Center for Leadership and Change Management, agrees. "This is a brassy move by both IBM and Lenovo," he notes. "It's untrodden ground for a Chinese company to make a sudden, big move to operate on the world stage." Useem says the biggest perk of the deal for IBM is that, by partnering with Lenovo, it gains better access to the market for services in China. In addition, stronger relations with the Chinese government can only boost IBM's standing. "Government relationships are key in China," he says. "IBM sees this as an alliance. Maybe the price wasn't as good as it could have been," but IBM gets a definite payoff in the form of "better relationships."
   
   So the big question is: Can Lenovo acquire the third largest PC business in the world -- behind Dell and Hewlett-Packard -- and become a dominant player?
   
   Offsetting IBM's Weaknesses
   
   Clearly, for Lenovo's top management, the answer is 'yes.' At a press conference in Beijing right after the deal was announced, newly-retired Lenovo chairman Liu Chuanzhi noted that globalization is the only option for the company, which has very little growing space left in the domestic market. But he also adds that the deal presents risk in three areas: "One is whether the new Lenovo will be accepted by IBM's clients and the PC market; second is whether IBM employees will still be proud [employees of the new company]," and third, whether the two corporate cultures can be successfully consolidated. Indeed, critics have noted the challenges that Lenovo faces not just trying to combine two different cultures, but also managing highly complicated logistics and supply chains, and moving forward in an industry with shrinking profit margins.
   
   During the press conference, Yang Yuanqing, Lenovo's new chairman, was clearly optimistic about his company's future. "Lenovo of China is going to be Lenovo of the world," he stated. "We won't be satisfied with the number three position. We will formally challenge the other two major competitors in the global PC market." Yang added that top management has "analyzed in-depth why there is no profit for IBM's PC business. IBM is a service-oriented company which focuses on products with high returns. But the PC business [is at a] stage where efficiency [brings] success, and that's why IBM's previous business model doesn't work … To reach high efficiency, there has to be big product scale. IBM only focuses on the big corporate clients, with less coverage for the middle size clients. This [hurts] IBM in the competition with rivals like Dell. Lenovo is strong where IBM is weak … and that is why we are confident about the future."
   
   Lenovo isn't the typical state-owned company in China. Founded in 1984 by academics at the official Chinese Academy of Sciences, it was initially set up to distribute equipment made by IBM and other companies. By 1990 it was selling PCs under its own brand name. Although the state is the majority owner, the Academy of Sciences was designed to create startups and allow them to fail as they would in a capitalist society. Most of them did. "The Academy of Sciences spawned a lot of companies and Lenovo is the only significant survivor," says Meyer. "The company hasn't been sheltered and [it has been able to] keep the government at bay."
   
   Recently, however, Lenovo has suffered some setbacks. It tried to branch out into new product lines only to retreat after it failed to keep focusing on its core business and lost market share in China. To reclaim lost share, Lenovo started a price war by offering the equivalent of $300 PCs at the expense of profits. Meyer says Lenovo was able to defend its domestic market share, but still needed economies of scale that the IBM deal provides to compete both in China and abroad.
   
   Over time, Lenovo will have to confront shrinking profits in the PC business and perhaps follow IBM's lead by branching out into product development and services, analysts say. It will also have to navigate the challenges of acquiring a larger company. In addition to its larger workforce, IBM has $9 billion in PC sales compared to $3 billion for Lenovo.
   
   In the end, however, Useem says this deal is likely to go down as a win-win. IBM gets the chance for more software, services and consulting deals in China, and Lenovo becomes a global player quickly. Meyer, while suggesting that Lenovo's management will need to learn the ways of Western-style capitalism, is confident that they will. Lenovo's executives, he predicts, will soon be in the top echelon of company management.
   
   PCs: Today's Typewriter?
   
3. [verwijderd] 22 december 2004 21:39

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   deel 2
   
   PCs: Today's Typewriter?
   
   Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the deal to Wharton professors was the price Lenovo offered for IBM's PC business, especially since Big Blue essentially created the industry when it introduced its personal computer on Aug. 12, 1981, and brought PCs into mainstream usage (along with Apple Computer). "What's really remarkable about this deal is the price paid for the number three company in the PC market," says Wharton operations and information management professor Christian Terwiesch. "The PC market in general, and especially the segment served by IBM, is simply becoming more and more of a high-tech commodity."
   
   For Wharton operations and information management professor Eric Clemons, the IBM sale to Lenovo closes the chapter on decades of IBM miscues and is an admission that Big Blue couldn't compete. "This probably is not a bad move," given the missteps they made in the past, explains Clemons. "The money comes from selling the chip and the operating system. But IBM gave (the chip business) to Intel when it had 20% of Intel and options on at least another 20%. Then IBM gave the operating system business to Microsoft. IBM will never be the lowest cost producer. So what was left for them?"
   
   Clemons' conclusion is echoed by Wall Street analysts. "Having acknowledged the risks, we generally agree with IBM's decision," says Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich. "We have long held the view that the only sustainable profit positions in the PC value chain belong to Intel, Microsoft and Dell."
   
   Yet despite IBM's struggles with the PC business -- which Zbaracki says the company viewed as a "nuisance" -- it did do a few things well that may be difficult for Lenovo to replicate, especially in laptop computers. Meyer, like other users of IBM's ThinkPad laptops, says Lenovo's ability to maintain quality and innovation for notebook computers will be key to the merged company's success. "The biggest selling point of IBM laptops is the warranty and service," says Meyer. "I wonder what the feelings will be about IBM if service is squeezed … The ability to retain market share in the U.S. will depend on the ability to maintain the quality and warranty of the product."
   
   Meanwhile, the pressure to keep IBM customers happy is already mounting. In a research note, Gartner analysts stated that Lenovo "must retain the status of IBM's notebooks while developing a range of desktops that can challenge Dell's." The first goal, they added, should be to keep the IBM core business in enterprise notebooks and use the IBM brand in other geographies to grow volume business. Gartner advises clients to "use the potential risks of the deal to negotiate lower prices or better service levels from IBM" and be prepared "to switch vendors quickly if IBM's responsiveness drops."
   
   On an investor conference call following the deal, IBM chief financial officer Mark Loughridge downplayed those worries, adding that Lenovo is getting IBM's research and development capabilities as well as employees who are behind such hits as the ThinkPad.
   
   Ultimately, analysts expect Lenovo to be competitive in the PC market. "Lenovo has historically struggled to maintain profitability in PCs," says Prudential Securities analyst Steven Fortuna. "However, we believe that it could become a more formidable competitor as it grows in scale, expands its geographic presence, and invests in more efficient manufacturing and distribution processes."
   
   The View from China
   
   Within China, the deal has both its critics and its supporters. Fang Zingdong, chairman of blogchina.com and a well-know IT critic in Beijing, calls it "a magnificent acquisition … The new Lenovo becomes a major global player in the PC industry overnight instead of struggling for generations." Lenovo is getting "IBM's first-rate products, technology, brands, market, channels and management," he says.
   
   Zeng Ming, professor of corporate governance and M&A at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, is "cautiously optimistic" about the deal, saying it "symbolizes Lenovo's efforts to strengthen its competence in the global market." As for other industries in China that might benefit from such deal, he suggests that "it must be a mature, global industry where Chinese companies get the cost advantage and have no technical barriers."
   
   Wang Fanghua, professor of strategy and executive vice dean of the School of Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, sees these types of future deals in the high-tech, retail and automotive industries where Chinese companies have achieved a certain size and are well positioned to enter the global market.
   
   Lu Xiongwen, professor of marketing and vice dean of the school of management, Fu Dan University in Shanghai, thinks IBM is getting the most out of the deal. "It helps IBM achieve its strategy transformation of focusing its resources on IT service. The company loses nothing and gets what it wants by maintaining its brand and technology." Lu is more critical of Lenovo's end of the deal, questioning the company's ability to handle such a giant enterprise given that it has not yet had experience managing a complex global company. "Chinese IT companies should focus more on the next wave of Internet technology and what impact it will have on market demand. This deal has delayed the possibility of Lenovo becoming a super IT company," Lu states.
   
   Dealing with Low-cost Rivals
   
   Several observers have noted the cost advantages that Lenovo has over other computer manufacturers in being able to source PC production in China, where wages are low. Does this imply that the IBMs of the world have little choice but to enter into deals like the present one when confronted with Lenovo-like rivals? Hal Sirkin, a senior vice president and director in the Chicago office of The Boston Consulting Group, believes this need not be the case. "Competing against low-cost competitors does not mean giving up," he says. "It means carefully working through what can be done and what the options are. Here's how you might think about the problem. First, understand the threat. Consider how the low-cost competitors might attack. Are they going to price-up brands, or are they going to acquire brands? Where are you strongest?"
   
   Sirkin suggests that the next step should be to answer the question, is doing nothing survivable? "If not, how do you evolve yourself?," he asks. "Does it mean going to the 'other side', and sourcing in, say, China, or even selling your company to the Chinese? Or does it mean finding ways to reduce your costs, manage your brand, and build a much stronger competitive position? You will have to make hard choices.
   
   "Finally, act quickly," Sirkin says. "The threat is real - acting slowly can put you out of business. On the other hand, so is the opportunity - acting quickly may strengthen your position against both low-cost and traditional competitors. Indeed, sometimes making the choices that require layoffs or other hard measures are the best way to preserve jobs in the long run."
   
   Challenges Ahead
   
   How the IBM/Lenovo deal ultimately plays out remains to be seen, but if Lenovo quickly loses market share and sales it will be the first sign of trouble, says Meyer. One challenge is history: Mergers in the technology industry traditionally stumble. When Hewlett-Packard bought Compaq in 2002 it became the No. 1 PC maker, but could only hold t
4. [verwijderd] 30 december 2004 16:03

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   PEKING - China is de op twee na grootste handelsmacht van de wereld geworden. De im- en export is dit jaar ten opzichte van 2003 met circa 30 procent gegroeid tot 1,1 biljoen dollar. Dat heeft de minister van Handel, Bo Xilai, donderdag gezegd, aldus het staatspersbureau Xinhua.
   
   Daarmee heeft China zijn buurland Japan achter zich gelaten en moet Peking in de ranglijst van machtige handelsnaties slechts de Verenigde Staten en Duitsland boven zich dulden.
   
   De directe buitenlandse investeringen besloegen meer dan 60 miljard dollar. De export maakte ruim 30 procent van het bruto binnenlands product uit.
   
   
5. [verwijderd] 15 januari 2005 19:15

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   Sommigen zijn zeker van een harde landing, sommigen denken dat er geen harde landing komt.
   
   Het enige dat ik weet is dat de Hang Seng dit jaar zeker zal stijgen.
   
   Groei zal elders in de wereld beter standhouden
   
   15 januari 2005
   
   Elders in de wereld zal de groei relatief beter standhouden, aldus KBC Asset Management. Azië (exclusief Japan), Latijns-Amerika en Centraal-Europa groeiden in 2004 met respectievelijk naar raming 7 %, 6 % en 4,50 %.
   
   In 2005 vallen deze cijfers allicht terug tot rond 6 %, 4 % en 4 %. In China, dat sinds de jaren 80 gemiddeld met jaarlijks 9 % groeide, lijkt een ‘harde landing’ alsmaar onwaarschijnlijker. De Chinese overheid koelt de economie onder meer af via restricties inzake kredietverlening, waardoor de groei er geleidelijk op een meer houdbaar pad terechtkomt.
   
   In Japan kwam met de forse groeiterugval al in het tweede kwartaal een einde aan een, naar Japanse normen, lange periode van hoogconjunctuur. De particuliere consumptie tekende nog een forse stijging op, maar er kwam niet langer steun van de kant van de bedrijfsinvesteringen en de netto-uitvoer.
   
   De vrij sterke prestaties van de voorgaande kwartalen hebben ervoor gezorgd dat op ondernemingsvlak een aantal structurele problemen (overcapaciteit, schuldenlast, overtollig personeel,…) grotendeels zijn weggewerkt. Terwijl de consumptiegroei zal terugkeren naar een meer houdbaar niveau, doet het winstherstel bij de bedrijven vermoeden dat de investeringen de Japanse groei zullen rechthouden rond de trendgroei, geschat op 1,30 %.
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 18 januari 2005 17:02

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   't ziet er zeer goed uit voor de Hang Seng, zowel stijging van de beurs als de munt dankzij de dollar, ondanks dat vele analisten (zelfs optimisten voor China) Hong Kong mijden, ben ik uitermate optimist, ik geloof dat er géén verdere rentestijgingen zullen komen in de USA als in Hong Kong en dat gaat een patat geven.
   
   The Artist
7. [verwijderd] 18 januari 2005 17:13

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   quote:

   The artist schreef:

   't ziet er zeer goed uit voor de Hang Seng, zowel stijging van de beurs als de munt dankzij de dollar, ondanks dat vele analisten (zelfs optimisten voor China) Hong Kong mijden, ben ik uitermate optimist, ik geloof dat er géén verdere rentestijgingen zullen komen in de USA als in Hong Kong en dat gaat een patat geven.
   
   The Artist
   

   +
   Hong Kong bedrijven worden vanuit de regering aangemoedigd om het de komende maanden enorme overnames te doen => overzees.
   
   Wanneer deze overnames een feit zijn, zal de Chinese munt beginnen stijgen => gevolg => overnames worden goedkoper naar gelang de muntversteviging => men rekend op een 10% voor dit jaar.
   
   Tevens worden ook de produkten duurder ( door de muntrevaluatie ) en meer inkomsten voor deze bedrijven zitten in de Sjakosse.
   
   <The Artist>
8. [verwijderd] 25 januari 2005 17:03

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   Hoi, heb je even
   
   finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=%5EHSI&...
   
   en of dat het er goed uitziet ( zie vorige teksten ), ten opzichte van de Amerikaanse beurzen mag je zeggen dat ze knallen.
   
   De groei van het voorbije jaar lag op een 9.5 %, dus geen sprake van een vertraging of oververhitting, alles losjes oké.
   
   De reactie vanmorgen spreekt boekdelen.
   Daarbovenop komt er nog eens een extra duw vanuit de USA vanwege het consumentenvertrouwen.
   
   Lenovo loopt alweer in de picture vanwege de overname van de PC afdeling van IBM.
   Er wordt gevreesd dat er door deze overname, militaire kennis in chinese handen zou komen.
   
   Pas op als U een IBM Laptop hebt, deze kunnen blijkbaar ontploffen.
   
   Als ook de Hang Seng deze kan ook ontploffen, uitbreken, knallen of stijgen, maar omhoog gaat ie das duidelijk zoals kaas met gaten.
   
   Nog even en het is Chinees Nieuwjaar, enfin, ook onze Belgische Colruyt heeft het niet slecht gedaan, na de fantastische cijfers volle bak adviesverlagingen ( zonder reden) geïncasseerd, volle bak dalende beurzen, maar toch nog op stevige winst.
   
   Happy New Year
   
   The Artist
9. [verwijderd] 25 januari 2005 17:19

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   Toch voorlopig opvallend is de stijgende dollar waardoor Chinese aandelen extra duurder worden.
   
   Wie nog niet is meegesprongen, zou best snel zijn eerst kleine aankoopje moeten doen, in paniek te veel kopen tegen te hoge prijzen is voor binnenkort.
   
   The Artist
10. [verwijderd] 2 februari 2005 21:08

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    2 Grote amerikaanse banken en Mark Faber Supergoeroe zijn optimistisch geworden voor China na de groeicijfers van het voorbije jaar, geloven zij in een zéér zachte landing.
    
    de reactie was voorlopig vandaag op Shangai => Shanghai Composite China 1,252.50 2:05AM ET 63.569 (5.35%) gestegen.
    
    Doch, zit ik niet op deze beurs, ik zit op de hang Seng, toch blijft het merkwaardig veel, meer dan 5% gestegen op een dag.
    
    Enfin, dat was enkel maar ter info.
11. [verwijderd] 11 februari 2005 15:20

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    Economy Expected to Grow 8 Percent Annually
    
    China's economy is expected to grow 8 percent annually over the next five years, the Development Research Center of the State Council predicted.
    
    Wang Mengkui, director of the center, said that by 2010, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country would be 21 trillion yuan (2.6 trillion US dollars) with a per capita GDP of US$1,900.
    
    According to Wang, the country's per capita GDP in 2005 will be 1,400 US dollars.
    
    Wang said the next five years will be a "golden time" for China's economic development, citing strength in materials and technology, a large domestic market, an abundant labor force and a stable society as the major driving force for economic development.
    
    Wang called unemployment, income gaps, social security problems and population transferring "hidden problems "threatening China's economic development.
    
    China will continue to move towards industrialization and urbanization and try to blend into the world economic system gradually, he said.
    
    (Xinhua News Agency February 11, 2005)
    
    
    
12. [verwijderd] 11 februari 2005 15:23

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    China's Burgeoning Private Sector - Top Ten News Stories of 2004
    
    In January 2005, China Business Times published the top ten news stories that shaped and influenced the rapid rise of China's private economy sector in 2004. These are the stories that made the grade in chronological order:
    
    1. Hebei document gives rise to debate on private economy
    
    On January 2, the provincial government of north China's Hebei Province approved and released a document on creating a sound institutional environment for the development of the private sector. The document resulted in a hot debate on the so-called "original sin" of private enterprises.
    
    The "original sin" refers to crimes and irregularities committed by some private business owners in China during "the gold rush" of the 1980s.
    
    The document suggests that the authorities should not prosecute bosses of private firms if the crimes committed in the initial stages of business outlive the validity period as stipulated under the country's criminal law. Further, even if the authorities decided to proceed with prosecution, the document recommends lenient or suspended sentences taking into consideration factors such as the nature and degree of severity of the crimes and their consequences.
    
    The main argument against the document was that it provided convenient loopholes, particularly to the rich. In addition, its suggestions conflict with Chinese criminal law. The stipulation on mitigation and annulment goes against the principle of punishment befitting the crime. Further, local authorities should not and cannot make sentencing decisions without regard to the prevailing laws of the country.
    
    Nevertheless, China's private enterprises developed with the support of the central government, albeit at times clashing with the country's planned economic system, laws and concepts. But, private enterprises guilty of illegal practices are in the minority and do not represent the sector as a whole.
    
    The Hebei document could be said to facilitate an objective and historical look at the problems that exist in private firms.
    
    2. Constitutional amendment aims to protect private property
    
    On March 14, the Second Session of the 10th National People's Congress passed amendments to the Constitution, the fourth time since the existing Constitution was established in 1982.
    
    One of the amendments adopted was that relating to private property. Article 22 now stipulates that legally obtained private property cannot be encroached upon. The clause effectively transforms what was previously only a civil right into a Constitutional right.
    
    This amendment was first introduced by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce in 1998 during the first session of the Ninth CPPCC. The federation made the same proposal again in 2002 and 2003.
    
    Article 22 is expected to boost the private economy sector.
    
    3. Jiangsu Tieben steel giant arouses debate
    
    On April 28, an order was passed halting the construction of Jiangsu Tieben Iron and Steel Co., a privately-owned steel project in Changzhou on the Yangtze River Delta. The order was announced during a State Council meeting hosted by Premier Wen Jiabao.
    
    The 10.6 billion yuan project was expected to have a production capacity of 8.4 million tons. The local government approved the project without the central government's prior approval. Approval for the use of the land was also illegally obtained.
    
    The company provided falsified accounts so as to obtain bank loans. Tieben had an annual production capacity of 2 million tons. In 2003, it produced 800,000 tons of steel.
    
    Tieben was one of the first private enterprises to be shut down under China's macro-control policy.
    
    Although this matter is not expected to influence the long-term development of the country's iron and steel industry as a whole, it could very well change modes of development.
    
    4. Jiangsu Qionghua scandal hurts SME board
    
    On June 12, Jiangsu Qionghua Hi-tech Co, Ltd. delivered a heavy blow to China's stockholders.
    
    Before listing on the SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Qionghua falsely declared its treasury bond investment at the total value of 35.55 million yuan. Following investigations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Qionghua's stock prices dropped sharply, raising investors' doubts about the SME board.
    
    Jiangsu Qionghua Hi-tech Co, Ltd. was the second firm listed on SME (small and medium enterprises) board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Qionghua enjoyed a 19 percent profit rise in the year 2002 and 2003.
    
    On November 3, Qionghua's president, Ao Yinmei, and vice general manager, Shi Jianxin, resigned, putting an end to the scandal.
    
    Although the SME board, touted as China's NASDAQ, has some 38 firms listed, this episode has done little for its image and it will be a while yet before it reaches its goal of China's answer to NASDAQ.
    
    5. Qingdao conference
    
    On July 25, the State Council held a forum on promoting non-public sector economic development in Qingdao in east China's Shandong Province. Participants included Zeng Peiyan, vice premier of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, 13 representatives from non-public enterprises, leaders from the relevant central, provincial and municipal government departments.
    
    The conference paid close attention to Premier Wen Jiabao's written statement that the private or non-public sector was a very important component of China's socialist market economy and the government, while strengthening and developing the public sector, also had a duty to encourage, support and guide the private sector. On the same day, the State Council issued its decision on investment system reforms.
    
    The Qingdao conference revealed four pieces of vital information: first, the State Council fully affirmed the role played by the private sector; second, the government insists on strengthening and developing the public sector while also encouraging, supporting and guiding the private sector; third, the government is drafting documents on developing the private business sector, and related regulations on investment, land use and industry permissions; and fourth, macro-adjustment and control is aimed at over-heated industries and not the private sector.
    
    6. Dispute between Larry Lang and Gu Chujun highlights weaknesses in SOE ownership structure reforms
    
    On August 10, Larry Lang, a well-known professor with the Chinese University of Hong Kong, delivered a speech accusing Gu Chujun, president of Kelon Group, a private Hong Kong-listed firm, of buying state assets at less than market prices by depressing their value. Lang criticized this method of disposing of state-owned assets.
    
    Lang also suggested that China should stop its pro-privatization ownership structure reforms and MBOs (management buyouts). A week later, Gu Chujun sued Lang for libel. Their spat is popularly known as "The Larry and Gu Dispute".
    
    Their dispute set off a nation-wide debate about MBOs. Scholars on the Chinese mainland believe that there are complicated reasons behind the loss of state assets in the SOE reforms. Private enterprises are not to be singled out as the only cause of losses.
    
    The dispute raised serious concerns and resulted in the government's issuing regulations on MBOs.
    
    7. D'Long 's bitter lesson
    
    On August 31, D'Long Group's three "close relatives" - Hunan Torch Automobile Group Co. Ltd., Shenyang Hejin Hold
13. [verwijderd] 11 februari 2005 15:24

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    7. D'Long 's bitter lesson
    
    On August 31, D'Long Group's three "close relatives" - Hunan Torch Automobile Group Co. Ltd., Shenyang Hejin Holding Investment Co. Ltd., and Tianshan Cement Holding Co. Ltd. - announced simultaneously that their holding companies and related Xinjiang D'Long (Group) Co. Ltd, D'Long International Strategic Investment Co. Ltd., and Xinjiang Tunhe Group Co. Ltd. were to assign rights to all their assets to China Huarong Asset Management Corp. Huarong would have full authority to perform its official functions relating to the management and handling rights of the three companies. Huarong said that the mechanics of the arrangement would be in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations, and mutual agreement.
    
    This development indicates Huarong's acceptance of D'Long, and how the government has stepped in to solve D'Long's problem, paving the way for it into the second tier market.
    
    There is no denying D'Long's achievements, but its recent crisis is also a bitter lesson. According to analysts, the People's Bank of China assignment of D'Long's asset reorganization to Huarong will likely set a precedent for other privately run enterprises in relation to financial risk management. This is an example of a win-win situation for enterprise and the government. Enterprises use government loans to activate assets and the debts owed by enterprises to the government can be paid back to a large degree. The reorganized D'Long is expected to become a completely new enterprise.
    
    8. Elche event a warning to 'Made in China'
    
    On September 16, a Chinese-owned shoe warehouse was burnt down in Elche, Spain, resulting in over 1 million Euros worth of damage. Two demonstrations against Chinese-owned shoe businesses were held in Elche on September 23 and 30.
    
    On September 21, the Chinese ambassador to Spain, Qiu Xiaoqi, met with four Chinese businessmen from Elche including Chen Jiusong, the owner of the burned warehouse. Qiu said that the Elche incident was the first serious case to threaten the livelihood of Chinese business people in Spain. The arson attack was strongly condemned by China. The Chinese embassy in Spain has urged the Spanish government to take tough measures to protect the legal rights of Chinese business people.
    
    In the past two years, the number of Chinese shoes shops in Elche has grown to over 60 due to Spain's booming shoe industry. The incident acts as a warning to China's developing foreign trade sector that "Made in China" commodities need to go beyond ultra-low pricing if they are to establish their position in the long term.
    
    More and more Chinese privately owned enterprises are moving operations overseas, and it is critical that they establish development rights if they are to compete in the international market.
    
    9. Lenovo acquires IBM PC business
    
    China's largest personal computer maker, Lenovo Group, announced on December 8 that it had bought IBM's PC business for US$1.3 billion, capping the US giant's gradual withdrawal from the business it helped to pioneer in 1981.
    
    The deal makes Lenovo the third-largest PC company in the world, up from its previous eighth position. The agreement calls for Lenovo to pay IBM US$650 million in cash and US$600 million in Lenovo Group common stock. The group will also assume US$500 million in net balance sheet liabilities from IBM. Lenovo is also buying out IBM's interest in its joint venture with Lenovo's rival, Great Wall Technology, China's No. 2 PC maker. IBM will take an 18.9 percent stake in Lenovo.
    
    Following the deal, Lenovo Group Chairman, Liu Chuanzhi, retired from his position with incumbent CEO, Yang Yuanqing, replacing him. Stephen M. Ward, Jr., from IBM has taken over as Lenovo's new CEO.
    
    For Lenovo, which is battling intense competition in its home market, the deal with IBM is a breakthrough in its efforts to build up its business abroad. It also makes the company part of a small but growing group of Chinese privately run companies buying overseas brands.
    
    10. 100 entrepreneurs named 'Model Workers'
    
    A national meeting honoring "Excellent Workers for Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" was held in Beijing on December 24. The meeting was jointly sponsored by the United Front Work Department of CCCPC, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Personnel, the State Administration of Industry and Commerce, and the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce.
    
    During the meeting, 100 entrepreneurs from the private sector were awarded the title of "Excellent Workers for Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics." This was the first time that the Chinese government recognized entrepreneurs from the private sector for their contributions to China's economic reform and socialist modernization building process.
    
    Jia Qinglin, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 16th CPC Central Committee and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, expressed appreciation for the non-public sector as a strong force for economic growth, relieving unemployment, and reviving China's urban and rural markets.
    
    Since 1978, when China implemented the policy of economic reform, opening its markets to the outside world, the number of private entrepreneurs has been increasing steadily. Jia said that they have played and would continue to play an important role in building socialism with Chinese characteristics.
    
    (China Business Times, translated by Guo Xiaohong and Li Jingrong for China.org.cn, February 9, 2005)
    
    
    
    
14. [verwijderd] 11 februari 2005 23:07

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    Beste Artist,
    
    wellicht een tijd geleden ik meen augustus dat ik mijn scepticisme ten toon spreide tav China danwel enigszins afzwakkend was. welnu, ik wil er graag op terugkomen. van technische analyse heb ik meer dan voldoende kennis en ervaring in, maar mij ontbreekt het vooral als het gaat om China om de fundamentele kennis, daarin schiet ik tekort en acht ik jou kennis vele malen groter. welnu, vorig jaar meende ik dat China teveel gehyped werd en meestal zie je dat dat gebeurt om (onachtzame) beleggers erin (de beleggingsfondsen) te luizen.
    
    momenteel echter, tot mijn grote verbazing zie ik dat de Shanghai (SSE) index nota bene is teruggevallen tot niveaus van 1999, binnenkort valt er geld vrij en ben ik zeker geinteresseerd om te kopen. ik denk dus ook dat nu de tijd rijp is om weer China aandelen te kopen....
    zeker als de index boven de 1.000 weet te blijven, dan kan het naar 2.000 op een termijn van 1 a 2 jaar..
    
    graag zou ik wel meer willen weten,als je wilt of ook iemand anders
    mag je reageren op summertrader@yahoo.com
    
    thanks en succes
    
    El Speculador
15. [verwijderd] 13 februari 2005 14:23

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    Eerst en vooral, probeer u te beperken tot de Hang Seng omdat daar de grote bedrijven zitten die gemakkelijk verder kunnen groeien.
    
    Shanghai en Shenzen heb ik nog nooit gevolgd omdat ze voorlopig te duur blijven, veel kan ik niet meer zeggen, ik ben zoals altijd al superoptimist en vanaf morgen verwacht ik ontzettend veel.
    
    Buiten dat ik in Lenovo en Red Chips zit kan niet meer zeggen.
    
    Maar blijkbaar zit jij meer gefixeerd op de Shanghai (SSE) en wellicht zal deze de Hang Seng wel volgen.
    
    Dus ga ervoor zou ik zeggen,...
    
    The Artist
    
    The_art_is_china@hotmail.com
    
16. [verwijderd] 13 februari 2005 17:19

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    hoi Artist,
    
    bedankt voor je info, je moet inderdaad oppassen voor slangenkuilen vooral in de emerging markets. ben meer gespecialiceerd in latijns amerika. maar vind dat je je ogen open moet houden voor azie cq china.
    
    gebruik momenteel marketbrowser om de charts overzichtelijk te presenteren en zal er ook chinese fondsen in amerika erin opnemen. denk je dat een alternatief beleggingsfondsen goed zijn in het kader van risicospreiding?
    het liefst klus ik natuurlijk zelf. maar goed ben geen specialist.
    
    summertrader@yahoo.com
    
    succes
    ES
17. [verwijderd] 13 februari 2005 19:30

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    De Hang Seng index krult opwaarts om, wat aangeeft dat vraag weer wat aantrekt. Een doorbraak boven tussenliggende weerstand 13885 (bodem van december) maakt ruimte vrij voor een verdere koersstijging richting 14440. Hier liggen de oude koerspieken van december 2004. Speculanten die nu al een opwaarts dobbeltje willen wagen, letten goed op steun 12740. Een terugval en slotstand hieronder is het signaal om naar de zijlijn te gaan. Behoudende beleggers stappen pas in bij een doorbraak en slotstand boven weerstand 14440. Met een uitbraak hierboven wordt de stijgende trend vanaf april 2003 hervat.
    
    De relatieve sterktelijn, die het koersverloop van Hang Seng index vergelijkt met dat van de index (blauwe lijn), beweegt omlaag. Dat geeft aan dat Hang Seng index veel slechter presteert dan de MSCI.
    
    Het actuele technische plaatje rechtvaardig thans geen nieuwe posities. Wacht eerst een uitbraak af, alvorens nieuwe posities aan te gaan.
18. [verwijderd] 14 februari 2005 10:25

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    Mooie uiteenzetting Yellowcab, bedankt.
    
    The Artist
    
    ps: toch beter niet afwachten zou ik zeggen en inspringen => puur fundamenteel gezien dan, dit weekend lieten de chinezen weten dat ze 5 jaar aan een stuk 8 % per jaar willen groeien.
    
    Om die dwaze oververhittings en domme zware landingstheorieen de kop in te drukken natuurlijk.
    
    Slelletje domme Amerikaanse en Europese analisten hebben alles voorspeld, behalve dat de groei in 2004 superchique was, nu zijn ze plots sinds een week of twee allemaal optimistich.
    
    Den trein is vertrokken.
    
19. [verwijderd] 14 februari 2005 10:54

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    quote:

    El Speculador schreef:

    denk je dat een alternatief beleggingsfondsen goed zijn in het kader van risicospreiding?
    het liefst klus ik natuurlijk zelf. maar goed ben geen specialist.
    
    summertrader@yahoo.com
    
    succes
    ES
    

    Ik heb geen ervaring in traden, maar daar ik altijd hoor dat individuele aandelen beter zijn, durf ik wel te zeggen dat indien het om olie-waarden van de Hang Seng gaat of "Lenovo" of meer volgroeide aandelen met groeistrategieen dat ik u toch aanraadt om het 50/ 50 te doen, qua fondsen of individuele aandelen, => TA is hetzelfde op Chinese als op Europese aandelen, dus waarom uw eigen strategie niet toepassen !!!
    
    The Artist
20. [verwijderd] 14 februari 2005 18:22

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    hoi yellowcab, dat stuk heb je natuurlijk van tostrams gecopieerd, dus inderdaad zegt hij dat je er niet in moet...een blinde kan al zien welke aandelen hij koopwaardig vindt: dsm, ihc et cetera
    en verkoopwaardig vastwel: Oce, en al die andere fondsen die op een bodem zitten...
    
    dus
    
    als hij zegt je moet uit de hang seng
    gewoon blind kopen!!!!
    
    later El Speculador