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Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 2 november 2007 20:09

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   UPDATE 5-Gold bursts through $800 to 28-year high
   Fri Nov 2, 2007 5:38 PM GMT143
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   (Recasts, adds quotes, changes prices)
   
   By Atul Prakash and Veronica Brown
   
   LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Gold pierced $800 per ounce for the first time since 1980 on Friday, ignited by surging oil prices, a record low dollar and a jittery economic backdrop due to further fallout from the global credit market crisis.
   
   Dealers said that with current fundamentals in play, the next big resistance level now lay at $850, a record hit in January 1980.
   
   "Don't knock it, this market is definitely going to $850 -- you have my word on that," said Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales at ANZ Investment Bank.
   
   By 1725 GMT, spot gold <XAU=> stood at $806.25/806.85 per ounce, having hit a 28-year high at $807.30, and around 2 percent up from $788.90/789.70 in New York late on Thursday.
   
   U.S. gold futures raced to $810.70 for the most active December contract <GCZ7>.
   
   The dollar sank to a record low against the euro <EUR=>, reversing earlier gains, after a strong U.S. jobs report encouraged investors to wade back into risky carry trades. Continued...
2. [verwijderd] 4 november 2007 16:41

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   GOLD AND SILVER ANALYSIS
   HEADY LEVELS
   At the current rate of increase gold will be at $950 by year-end
   
   The gold price has risen 20 percent in the past two months and a continuation of this rate of increase would see gold at or around $950 by the year end. Is this really achievable?
   Author: Lawrence Williams
   Posted: Monday , 29 Oct 2007
   
   LONDON -
   
   While my own opinion - and that of a number of others - is that the movement of the gold price is primarily inversely related to the strength of the US dollar, commodity aspects also come into play on the margins. In other words, should jewellery demand in particular dry up, the gold price will suffer, but should jewellery demand remain strong, or increase, the additional marginal impact will help push the bullion price up sharply in times where other sources of supply may actually be on the wane, or at best pretty well static.
   
   And the latter is what appears to be happening at the moment. Worries that higher prices might dampen jewellery demand in India, where sales at this time of year tend to be particularly strong due to the Diwali festival and the traditional wedding season, are not yet apparent with price currently having little impact on sales.
   
   Thus we are now seeing a situation where ‘safe haven' demand, dollar devaluation and high jewellery sales are all coming together to drive up the gold price. $800 is almost there, and so far there seems little sign of the current gold price upwards momentum coming to a halt. This growth spurt really got under way in mid-August as some of the initial impacts of the subprime crisis started to unwind. If the current rate of price increase continues we will see a year-end gold price of around $950! It has risen just over 20 percent in the past two months and a further 20 percent increase over the remainder of the year would bring it to that level. This rate of increase would bring the yellow metal past its old high of $850 an ounce just after Nov 20th. That date would be a useful pointer as to whether a $950 year-end price is actually achievable.
   
   Is this out of the question? No! Other commodity prices have seen similar increases at times over a similar amount of time, but then such a rapid rise could be mitigated by bouts of profit taking and, perhaps, intervention by monetary authorities if it is felt things are getting out of hand- or if there is a spate of nerves in the jewellery sector.
   
   But, as stated here late last week in Star Wars terms - the force is with gold! A whole batch of factors are all weighing in favour of a continuing gold price rise. There will be stutters as various perceived resistance levels are reached, but since August the metal price has cruised through previous resistance levels without serious pause.
   
   It would thus need a change of sentiment, or of the fortunes of the dollar, not to see the price continuing to rise. Whether it reaches the heady levels suggested earlier obviously remains to be seen, but it is not a ‘far-out' prediction should current pressures remain unchanged.
3. lucas D 4 november 2007 19:18

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   • lucas D

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   Hoi HTG,
   
   Bedankt weer voor je up tot date informatieve berichtgeving, het plaatje gaat er steeds beter uitzien.
   
   groet lucas D
4. [verwijderd] 15 november 2007 20:53

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   A perfect storm for gold as mines left empty
   
   By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
   Last Updated: 6:55pm GMT 15/11/2007
   
   The era of 'peak gold' has arrived.
   
   Try as they might, miners cannot find enough ore at viable costs to replace their fast-depleting reserves, even if they dig miles into the centre of the earth.
   # Dollar crunch puts gold centre stage
   
   Hugo Chavez
   Gold producers are reluctant to invest in Latin American countries influenced by Hugo Chavez
   
   "There's not much gold out there," said Gregory Wilkins, chief executive of top producer Barrick Gold.
   
   "Global mine supply is going to decrease at a much faster rate than people generally believe. Many of the new mines that people are anticipating will never come into production," he told the RBC Capital Markets gold conference in London.
   
   "There is a great disparity between the money spent on exploration and success. It's hard to say where the price of gold is going because we're in uncharted waters. I would say it could easily move to $900, $1,000, or beyond. It could happen very quickly," he said.
   
   We know from the US Academy of Sciences that some 26pc of all the copper and 19pc of all the zinc that ever existed in the earth's crust has already been lost to mankind, mostly wasted in milling or smelting or buried in landfills.
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   Data has never been collected for gold, and the 5bn ounces of mined over history is still around. Roughly 1bn are in central bank vaults. But the same patterns of exhaustion are emerging.
   
   South Africa's output is down to the lowest since 1932. Much of what remains elsewhere is locked up in no-go countries run by demagogues or serial expropriators.
   
   "You don't put yourself in harm's way. It's a non-starter to invest in a country that takes your mine away from you," said Mr Wilkins.
   
   "The list of countries where we won't go is getting longer. There's Venezuela, and all the countries in Latin America that are influenced by (Hugo) Chavez.
   
   "In Ecuador they withdraw licences after they have been issued: you can't tolerate that kind of instability. Russia is another country where things are deteriorating," he said.
   
   Kevin McArthur, chief executive of Goldcorps, said his group was not setting foot outside North America.
   
   "We won't build a mine where we won't go on holiday. We're even tending to stay out of the US because that has some of the highest political risk in terms of mining investment," he said.
   
   The gripe is that revisions to the 1872 Mine Act will add royalty costs and allow regulators to shut down projects on a whim.
   
   Mr McArthur said global output was on a relentless slide. "We'll see four digit gold. It will have to reach $2,500 an ounce to equal the 1980 record in today's terms, so we have a long way to go," he said
   
   Gold reached a 27-year high of $846 an ounce in early November following rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, though it has fallen back on profit taking.
   
   Investors seem to be betting on a "Bernanke reflation", suspecting that the Fed will turn the liquidity tap back on to cushion the US property slump.
   
   Tony Fell, chairman of RBC Capital Markets, said the world money supply has been growing by 5pc-10pc while the stock of mined gold has been rising at 1.6pc, creating a mismatch that must be covered.
   
   Mr Fell says the total debt burden in the US has exploded to 340pc of GDP, in stark contrast to the steady levels of around 150pc of the post-War era.
   
   It almost insures further dollar debasement. "We're in the very early phases of a prolonged bull market," he said.
   
   RBC argues that the global dollar system known as Bretton Woods II is "coming apart at the seams" as Asian, Mid-East, and Latin American states start to break their dollar links to avoid importing US inflation.
   
   The result is to resurrect gold, which is fast regaining its role as the world's benchmark currency.
   
   It was the last currency bust-up -- caused by America's attempt to the fight the Vietnam War and fund the Great Society, without adequate taxes -- that lay behind the 1970s bull market in gold.
   
   "The fact that monetary policy in the core was too loose for the periphery triggered the demise of Bretton Woods 1. The late 1960s saw first France and then Germany and Britain all start to swap their dollar reserves for gold. We may well be witnessing a similar situation today as price pressures build in the emerging world," it said in a new report.
   
   However, the bank warned that gold was looking toppy after the blistering Autumn rally and faced a likely sell-off in coming weeks, perhaps to $725-$750.
   
   India's gold buying season is coming to an end with the Diwali Festival. The country accounts for 22pc of world gold demand.
   
   The level of speculative "long" positions on New York's Comex futures market has remained above 20m ounces for five weeks in a row. This sort of pattern is typically followed by a sharp slide, although the global credit crunch and bank scares may change the game this time.
   
   RBC says any correction is likely to be short, with gold probing record highs of $900 an ounce early next year.
   
   Whether the gold mining shares will at last join the party is far from clear. Many have languished through the bull market, and some are trading well below levels reached when gold was half the price.
   
   Costs are rising at $60 an ounce annually. They will average of $460 by next year. From tires, to diesel fuel, and the geologists' salaries, mine inflation is running at 15pc.
   
   Ian Cockerill, head of Gold Fields, said the industry had "shot itself in the foot" by touting production cash costs that were not even close to the real figure.
   
   Hence the fury of shareholders left trying to understand how so many mines could have gone bust when alleged costs per ounce were half the spot price of gold.
   
   "We've deluded ourselves and we've deluded investors by failing telling them about all the other bills we have to pay. Until we tell them the total cost per ounce, we'll never have credibility," he said.
   
   RBC is betting that the gold mining shares will soon start to shine again, enjoying their famed leverage to the spot price.
   
   At $1000 an ounce, it forecasts a share feast: Barrick up 65pc, Newmont 80pc, IAMGOLD 90pc, NovaGold 90pc, and Centerra 100pc.
   
   Purists will always prefer ingots of glistening metal.
5. [verwijderd] 23 november 2007 10:56

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   GATHERING STRENGTH - AGAIN
   
   Gold may be making a big move again?
   The gold price started what appeared to be a major upwards move again this morning which could see it testing recent highs, but price movements likely to remain volatile.
   
   Author: Lawrence Williams
   Posted: Friday , 23 Nov 2007
   
   LONDON -
   
   Despite the closing of the US markets yesterday for Thanksgiving and the Japanese market today for Labour Thanksgiving Day, the gold price appears to be making another sharp upwards move after its sharp correction of the past two weeks.
   
   At the time of writing the price had moved back up well over $810 in late Eastern markets awaiting the opening of trading in Europe and London. The recent upward move, which started during the week and now seems to be gaining strength, has variously been put down by analysts to the weak dollar on speculation the US Fed will cut interest rates again to prop up the US economy which is wavering on the edge of moving into recession, higher oil prices and bargain hunting following the sharp falls back from the recent $845 high of a couple of weeks ago.
   
   To this observer the higher oil price and the stronger precious metals prices, as silver an platinum prices are also firm this morning in line with gold, are both a function of the continuing decline in the value of the dollar, which has sunk to a new low against the euro, Swiss franc and the basket against major currencies against which dollar strength is valued.
   
   Even during the sharp correction in price, most analysts have been confident that gold will resume the upwards path and technical factors and continuing dollar weakness are seen as taking the metal higher. Price movements may well remain volatile though as markets are decidedly twitchy with investors looking over their shoulders to the generals stock markets which are continuing to be affected by the continuing subprime mortgage fallout.
   
   To an extent, the general market unease should be highlighting gold's safe haven role but liquidity requirements among major institutions can lead to short term needs to liquidate strong assets as well as weak ones.
   
   Where will gold move to in this run - should there be one? Some analysts look to resistance at around $816, but the last gold run smashed through all kinds of supposed resistance levels without a pause - and the gold price this morning seemed to be accelerating upwards with the kind of strength which could see it testing the recent highs next week if the momentum continues.
   
   The price will remain volatile, though, as we have pointed out before. Any signs of dollar strength, albeit temporary, can knock sentiment and trigger serious profit taking, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that we could see $850 gold and $100 oil before the year end - or even the end of the month should this morning's rapid jump have legs. Indeed a good run in gold could take it well past this level after its recent pause for breath.
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 4 december 2007 09:40

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   China Lifts Restriction on Silver Imports
   
   By Interfax-China
   03 Dec 2007 at 09:06 AM
   
   SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China lifted restrictive regulations on high-purity sliver imports that were in place for the last eight years on 19 November this year, the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, and the General Administration of Customs announced last Thursday.
   
   The silver import regulation, which originally came into effect on 1 January 2000, prohibited all unlicensed silver imports into China except those intended for tolling. Under the regulation, companies were required to obtain a licence from the central bank before importing silver for sale in the Chinese market.
   
   Tolling is a common trade practice whereby companies import raw materials and process them into finished products for re-export.
   
   "The cancellation of this policy means that companies are now free to import silver and sell it in the domestic market without having to apply for a licence from the central bank. However, companies will still have to pay 17% VAT on the imports," an official surnamed Liang, from the Huatong Platinum and Silver Exchange, China's largest silver spot trade platform, told Interfax on Friday.
   
   "The 2000 silver import regulation was released in order to alleviate silver oversupply in China, as at the time, China produced more silver than it could consume," Ye Linfeng, an analyst from Chengdu Gaosai'er Gold & Silver Co. Ltd., a leading precious metals dealer and member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, said.
   
   China's rapid economic growth is driving silver consumption towards overtaking domestic production, and the country is gradually moving from an oversupply situation into a supply and demand balance, making import restrictions unnecessary, Ye said.
   
   China is the world's fourth largest silver producer, after Peru, Mexico and Australia.
   
   However, both Liang and Ye said that the policy cancellation will not significantly impact China's sliver market.
   
   © Interfax-China 2007. For more intelligence on Chinese metals and mining, contact David Harman in Hong Kong at david.harman@interfax-news.com or (852) 2537-2262.
   
7. [verwijderd] 10 december 2007 09:47

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   Peter Brimelow: Does gold have one more rally left in 2007? By Peter Brimelow MarketWatch.com
   Sunday, December 9, 2007
   www.marketwatch.com/news/story/does-g...
   
   NEW YORK -- Over the past few decades, gold has been quite often closed the year advancing on a blow-off peak.
   
   There is a rationale for this: India, which as Bill Murphy's Le Metropole Cafe Webzine keeps stressing, is the world's largest bullion buyer, sees crest demand in the early months of the year, the wedding season, when gold is traditionally in demand as jewelry.
   
   Could it happen this year?
   
   Right now gold's strongest friends seem somewhat intimidated. The huge rises in early and late November -- peaks in the $830s and the $820s respectively -- seem, after all these years, to have stunned them.
   
   Dan Norcini, whose highly sophisticated daily commentary appears on Jim Sinclair's MineSet Website, wrote Friday in his "Hourly Action" comment: "It still looks to me like gold is already experiencing end of the year positioning influences as those who have nice big profits from being long this year are booking them and moving to the sidelines. ... This time of the year the trading conditions thin out ... as the insects that live on the trading floor known as the pit locals tend to take over ... to basically stick it to the public."
   
   This sort of year-end profit-taking effect may be true for commodities in general. But gold, of course, is notoriously unique. It simply is more influenced by sentiment about systemic financial risk than anything that is eaten, burned, or worn.
   
   And late 2007 is not short of fears about systemic financial risk.
   
   This no doubt is what the glacially long-term chartist Martin Pring perceived in his latest weekly comment, published on Thursday evening. Pring is especially interested in the action of Amex Gold Bugs Index, which he regards as an indicator of financial system stress. He wrote, in chart-speak:
   
   "Thursday's action was a small outside day and there was a penetration of the potential neckline during the day. By the close of business, though, the price had rallied back to the down trendline. If the line is now violated on the upside there would be a strong possibility that the head and shoulders would fail. This would then have bullish implications for both shares and metal prices. The line, for the record, is currently at 414."
   
   On Friday the HUI closed at 412.06.
   
   MarketVane's Bullish Consensus on gold, a distinctly non-establishment information source, saw gold on Friday night at 80%. That's high overall, but it's close to the lowest level seen in the past three months. And it's a long way from the spectacular 22-day high above 90% in October and early November, which gold-watchers say has no precedent.
   
   In other words, bullish enthusiasm is not at the point at which it would attract contrarian skepticism.
   
   I've written before about the Australian gold service The Privateer, and the wonderful long term point-and-figure chart it graciously makes available for free. It seems in no particular danger of a breakdown right now. See the chart here:
   
   www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html
   
   LeMetropoleCafe reports that there is one of the periodic confusions occurring about assessing Indian gold prices, due to uncertainty about what local taxes actually are.
   
   But no one suggests that the Indians are far from the market. In fact, wire service reports speak of imports right now.
   
   At the least, gold bears might be unwise to hibernate.
8. [verwijderd] 11 december 2007 11:21

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   Monday, December 10, 2007
   Chinese now primed for Gold
   
   Monday, December 10, 2007 6:19:52 AM
   Author: John Reade, Robin Bhar
   UBS Metals Daily
   
   China's wealthiest investors set for gold spree
   
   China's wealthiest investors are on the brink of ploughing as much as $68 billion into gold markets as they take profits from roaring share prices and steer clear of property, a top fund manager and bullion bull says. Wang Weilie, a pale, bespectacled 40-something who manages over 1 billion yuan ($135 million) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on behalf of himself and clients, says the so-called "Zhejiang clique" are ready to pounce after Beijing opens up spot market bullion trading and a futures contract launches early next year. After amassing an estimated 3 trillion yuan ($400 billion) from investing in red-hot real estate and stock markets which have risen five-fold in the past two years, the wealthy group from eastern China is looking for the next sure bet. Wang says that's gold, and expects the amount of Chinese capital invested in the bullion market to soar 100-fold to some 500 billion yuan ($67.5 billion) in the next two years -- a sum that could catapult China ahead of India as the world's top buyer. "We all agreed that upside room on stocks was limited, as was upside on property prices. But the gold price has only increased minimally, even after 20 years of China's reform and market opening," Wang told Reuters during a lunch with three business partners in Lujiazui, Shanghai's financial hub. Coupled with inflation and global economic uncertainty, the redirection of Chinese capital towards domestic gold contracts will help spot prices more than double, says Wang, who says he once cornered two-thirds of the Chinese gold forward contract. "Spot gold prices will hit $2,000 in coming years," he said. Spot gold touched a 28-year high of $845.40 per ounce in early November, nearly doubling over three years amid a flood of investment in the commodities complex -- much of it driven by China's growing demand for raw materials to fuel its economy. Wang expects more than 15 percent of the capital currently invested in China's stock market to move to gold trading. China's total market capitalization peaked at about 35 trillion yuan in October, exceeding the country's gross domestic product. The main stock index tumbled nearly 20 percent last month while Beijing has continued tightening controls over the property sector to limit price gains (Reuters).
   
   
9. [verwijderd] 12 december 2007 12:16

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   Goud klaar voor de "second leg up".
   
   www.kitco.com/ind/Hamlin/dec102007.html
10. [verwijderd] 16 december 2007 18:00

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    GOLD MAY GO HYPERBOLIC, according to the Aden Sisters.
    
    At the New Orleans Investment conference in October, for example, attendance was lower than last year. Several of the speakers also commented on a general lack of enthusiasm.
    
    Considering that these attendees are mostly gold investors, and gold was more than $200 higher than it was last year, this is quite strange. But this nonchalance tells us that gold’s bull market still has a lot further to go. In other words, the normal psychological steps, which happen in any bull market, have barely gotten started.
    
    ... AND MORE TO COME
    
    Normally, for instance, you’ll see the so called smart money go into a developing bull market first. This includes investors who understand the markets and the big picture, some professionals and so on.
    
    As prices rise, more gold bugs will move in, usually followed by some early bird Wall Street types.
    
    This is basically where we are now, in the second phase. But as New Orleans illustrated, this bull market rise is still lacking investor and Wall Street enthusiasm. That’s still to come and we think that’ll probably happen once gold hits a new record high above $850.
    
    During the third phase of a bull market, the public jumps in. The public is usually late to the party and in their collective excitement, they’ll drive prices up to extreme levels. The most recent example of this happened in the late 1990s when tech stocks were all the rage. Everyone was “into high tech” and these stocks were going to keep rising in the “new era,” but of course they didn’t.
    
    As for gold, the public is barely aware of gold’s ongoing rise and they’re not in the market. The reason that’s good is because the longer gold goes without attracting much attention, the higher it will ultimately go once the public starts moving in.
    
    This suggests that the gold price could literally skyrocket at some point to levels far higher than most people are expecting. And with world tensions increasing on several fronts, it’s providing plenty of fuel for the markets.
    
    www.kitco.com/ind/aden/aden.html
11. [verwijderd] 3 januari 2008 18:11

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    Jan 3 2008 11:28AM
    
    Mega Move Underway, Stay With It
    
    Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com
    
    As we enter 2008, gold is hitting a new record high. That’s a great way to kick off the new year and it looks like there’s a lot more to come. Why?
    
    This commodity upmove is over six years old, yet it’s still young and it’ll likely last another decade before it’s over. The falling dollar has certainly given the commodities a boost and there’s really no reason why the dollar will strengthen next year, which is a positive sign for the commodities.
    
    But it’s important to keep in mind that this is not just a reflection of the weak dollar. Most telling is to see the commodities in a strong currency, like the euro. Chart 1 shows this clearly. Be it oil, gold or the commodity index, they are all rising in a strong currency.
    
    This is most impressive because it shows that a true commodity upmove is underway.
    
    GOLD RISE IS SOLID
    
    Gold is now at a new high in U.S. dollar terms. It’s also at record highs in other currencies.
    
    This reflects a strong rise, yet most people don’t realize that gold’s at a record high within an almost seven year old bull market! Gold’s been up every year since 2001, and 2007 was not an exception. Gold gained 31% in 2007, yet most investors do not own gold. That’s going to change. As higher gold prices begin to attract attention, investors will notice and they’ll jump in too. That’s when gold will start soaring. That’s not happening yet, but it will and probably sooner rather than later.
    
    Steps about complete
    
    If gold stays above $850 it will have completed its fourth step of the bull market. Chart 2 shows that gold entered the fourth step in December 2005, when it broke above $500. That in itself was a milestone and gold started to break away from the dollar. Gold has been rising steadily since then. By staying above $850, the steps will be complete and gold will be entering a new stronger phase of the bull market.
    
    Gold stronger than many markets
    
    Gold has a lot going for it. It’s strong compared to several currencies, and it’s stronger than the stock and bond markets.
    
    Chart 3A shows that gold has been stronger than the Dow Industrials since 2000. This was a major change and the trend in the ratio clearly favors gold on a mega trend basis. The ratio reached an intermediate low last July while the indicator (B) was at a gold too low area. Both have been rising since then showing that gold has been outperforming stocks and it’s poised to stay stronger.
    
    There are many reasons why gold’s bull market has further to run, and the ongoing political and financial uncertainty in the world are just two important reasons why. Recent events in Pakistan have further reinforced this.
    
    Gold is a safe haven, which is why demand is rising. Even though gold’s bull market turns seven years old in February, it’s strong and solid, and a buy and hold strategy is the best way to make the most profits… ride the mega-major wave to completion and keep in mind that the long-term trend has a lot further to run.
    
    by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
    
    *****
    
    Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com
    
    
    
    
    
12. [verwijderd] 19 januari 2008 12:58

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    'Gold rush' grabs Chinese as prices hit new high
    (Xinhua)
    Updated: 2008-01-19 10:58
    
    The appeal of gold as an alternative investment is increasing in China as its price hits new highs and is forecast to keep rising in the mid to long term.
    
    Related readings:
    Gold futures trading debuts in Shanghai
    Old frenzy missing as gold prices hit record
    Gold, platinum reach record levels
    Stimulated by expectations of US interest rate cuts and soaring global oil prices, gold reached an all-time high earlier this month. Citibank estimated its price is expected to hit $1,000 an ounce this year.
    
    The strong upward trend has attracted individual Chinese investors such as Yao Yun. The chief financial officer of a Shanghai-based foreign company bought 50,000 yuan ($6,849) in gold bars and the price has risen by 12 yuan per gram in just half a month.
    
    "I believe the price will keep rising," he said. "The stock market is too volatile, and the real estate sector is subjected to macro-control.Investing in gold is a good choice at this time."
    
    In Caishikou Department Store, a popular physical gold dealer in Beijing, more than 100 people lined up to purchase bullion for the Lunar Year of the Mouse on November 22, the first trading day of the products. More than 200 kilograms of the gold bars were sold within 1.5 hours. Moreover, the total subscription amounted to two tons.
    
    Li Xiang, a manager of the department store, said sales of gold products surged more than 50 percent to 2.38 billion yuan in 2007.
    
    Zhongjin Gold Cooperation Limited, a leading gold products manufacturer in the country, said its bullion sales had kept a steady growth of 50 percent month-on-month since July.
    
    Paper claims to physical gold, which allows customers to use money in their bank accounts to virtually buy and sell gold at global prices, are also appealing to more domestic investors as well as speculators.
    
    Recent figures from the Bank of China (BOC) Shanghai branch show that the transaction volume of "paper gold" reached 140 million yuan last week, 30 percent higher than in the flat period before gold started rising.
    
    "Paper gold has entered the vision of more individual investors recently because of the wide range of price fluctuation," said Xu Ming, a gold analyst at the BOC Shanghai branch.
    
    China Gold Association statistics revealed that gold investors nationwide have exceeded 1 million. The number doesn't include speculators of gold futures, which made a strong debut in Shanghai on January 9.
    
    On that day, China gold futures contracts surged to the daily 10 percent limit minutes after trading started at 9 a.m. on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. More than 6,000 clients traded on the market.
    
    Experts believe the China gold futures market will grow into a leading global market as it was launched at a time when international gold prices have repeatedly been hitting new highs. Global prices jumped more than 30 percent throughout last year, representing the biggest increase since 1979.
    
13. [verwijderd] 20 januari 2008 00:21

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    Iemand een antwoord op volgende?
    
    Je kunt in Goud handelen op basis van euros. Echter volgens mij wordt de wereldprijs van goud in Dollars uitgedrukt. Dus als de Dollar alsmaar minder waard wordt dan wordt ook goud alsmaar minder waard (los van de eigen prijsstijging).
    
    Is deze redenatie correct en zo ja zijn er fondsen die zich op goud baseren en dit effect niet hebben?
    
    
14. [verwijderd] 24 januari 2008 22:10

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    New Uses Give Silver Reasons to Shine
    By Jane Louis 23 Jan 2008 at 02:45 PM
    
    St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- When compared to gold, silver often seems like the ugly stepsister - moving in gold’s shadow, always trying to catch up to gold’s sparkle but ultimately reacting with extreme volatility - and 2007 was no exception. As gold gained 28% on the year, silver added 18% while suffering bouts of extreme ups and downs.
    
    And much like gold, silver can be used as both an industrial commodity and as a monetary investment - though industrial uses are by far the main driver of the silver market.
    
    The market functions based on basic supply and demand fundamentals. Supply largely comes from mine production, which accounted for approximately 70% of global supply in the past decade. Recycled silver scrap is the second largest source of silver, totalling about 20% of global supply. The remaining supply comes from producer hedging, government sales and implied net disinvestment.
    
    But according to the VM Group and Fortis Bank’s latest edition of “The Silver Book”, demand has been trailing off since 2006 due to the significant drop in photography use demand. In the past, photography uses were a main source of consumption, but that has fallen off considerably with the popularity of digital cameras.
    
    Thus, the VM Group is predicting a supply surplus of 7,315 tonnes in 2008 - up 16% over the supply surplus of 6,141 tonnes in 2007.
    
    “Metal available to the investor, which in a strong market as we have recently experienced, appears to be relatively easy to absorb,” the commodities consultancy said in the report. “We expect jewellery demand to make a modest recovery as consumers adapt to higher prices, whilst photographic demand will continue to fall.”
    
    Ultimately, it is the investor who will decide the supply and demand balance, Jessica Cross, chief executive of the VM Group, told Resource Investor.
    
    “The silver market is in a chronic state of surplus, and this is metal available to the investor,” Cross said. “If there is scant investment interest as there was in 1990s, then the silver price will decline. If there is buoyant investment interest, the price will consolidate and increase.”
    
    New Sources of Demand
    
    Industrial applications are the main source of demand in the silver market. Silver is a good thermal and electrical conductor, making it useful in switches and fuses. It is also used in batteries, and its quality as a bactericide allows it to be used in water purification systems and a wide range of consumer products. The use of silver in wood preservatives was expected to be introduced this year, but licensing was delayed. Wood preservatives are predicted to be a significant consumer of silver in the coming years, the report said, and the delay in 2007 affected the supply and demand balance.
    
    “This application remains at the licensing stage and therefore it is not surprising that product developers are remaining tight-lipped about the developments and progress of this licensing. Our figures therefore reflect this delay.”
    
    A new use of silver is growing in popularity, however, VM reported.
    
    The technology for radio frequency identification devices (RFID) has been around since the Second World War, but only in recent years has the updated technology grabbed the attention of commercial and military supply-chains for its use in inventory tracking. Similar to bar codes (which, in fact, are the biggest competition to RFID tags), the devices can be used to identify and track goods.
    
    “The original active RFID technology includes a battery-powered, high data capacity tag that transmits radio frequency energy across a radius of up to 300 feet,” according to the report. “This is now being replaced by passive RFID technology, which has no battery but relies on a radio frequency signal from a transmitter to activate the tag. The tag then sends out information to a receiver, which reads the information and processes it.”
    
    Research firm IDTechEx said it expects the number of tags produced in a year to increase by a whopping 93% to 25.90 billion by 2017. That is incredibly good news for the silver market, as RFID tags each contain about 10.9 milligrams of silver. And even better news - the tags are hard to recycle, the VM Group said.
    
    While RFID tags are not truly competitive to bar codes right now due to their high prices, “The Silver Book” said it’s only a matter of time before the technology is adapted and used extensively. The use of silver in RFID will not completely replace the loss of silver consumption in photography, the report said, but it does have an advantage over photography in its difficulty to recycle.
    
    “This is vital if silver is to hold its own in the light of declining offtake in photography as a result of digital (cameras),” Cross said.
    
    Silver Outlook
    
    Despite the potential oversupply in 2008, many analysts are staying bullish on silver.
    
    “As primarily a by-product of base metals mining, (silver) remains moderately price inelastic, and it can expect rising mine production based upon increases in production of the host metals, primarily copper,” Ross Normal of TheBullionDesk.com said in the London Bullion Market Association’s “Forecast 2008”.
    
    “Silver’s price gains, however, can be attributed to solid demand-side investment, and that appetite looks set to continue in 2008 as the race between the old world and the emerging economies to corner the world’s natural resources intensifies... be it a mine or simply physical metal. The fly in the ointment may be the slowing global economy and, more so than in gold, this could signal a more modest increase than in former years.”
    
    David Davis, analyst at Credit Suisse, agreed.
    
    “Silver prices only rose 14% year-on-year (2006 -2007), having put gains of 25%, 38% and 42% over the previous three years,” he said in the “Forecast”.
    
    “We believe silver prices will likely play ‘catch up’ when compared to the year-on-year increases of the previous years, but also and more importantly, silver prices will likely receive impetus from the upward trend in platinum and gold prices and the investment (ETF) market. In the long term, gold and silver prices have been closely correlated. The fundamentals of the silver supply and demand dynamics are unlikely to have a major effect on driving the price. Silver has the potential to break through $20 by the end of the year.”
    
    The iShares Silver Trust ETF [AMEX:SLV] has seen its rate of accumulation slow in the past two years, but new ETFs were launched in the UK and Switzerland this year, which have both experienced steady gains, “The Silver Book” said.
    
    Cross said she expects silver to trade in the $12 to $18 per ounce range in 2008, with “lots of upside but possible liquidation of longs.” March silver dropped 17.5 cents to trade at $15.93 an ounce in mid-day trading today on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    
    
    © Copyright 2008, Resource Investor
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 28 januari 2008 08:05

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    "a rocket shot to $1,000 over the next few weeks, which I consider to be a very good probability. We already have lift-off. Get ready for the rocket shot."
    
    www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-r...
16. [verwijderd] 28 januari 2008 14:13

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    quote:

    Ton2e schreef:

    Iemand een antwoord op volgende?
    
    Je kunt in Goud handelen op basis van euros. Echter volgens mij wordt de wereldprijs van goud in Dollars uitgedrukt. Dus als de Dollar alsmaar minder waard wordt dan wordt ook goud alsmaar minder waard (los van de eigen prijsstijging).
    
    Is deze redenatie correct en zo ja zijn er fondsen die zich op goud baseren en dit effect niet hebben?
    

    Jij denkt dus dat goud minder waard wordt, omdat de dollar minder waard wordt t.o.v. de euro? Dat zou juist zijn als er een vaste koppeling bestond van goud met de dollar. Dit is al sinds 1971 niet meer het geval, dus kan de goudprijs meer stijgen dan de dollar valt (en niet alleen t.o.v. de euro....)
    De vraag naar goud neemt toe, ergo de prijs stijgt, ook uitgedrukt in euro's.
    
    Zie ook: www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php
17. [verwijderd] 30 januari 2008 08:46

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    Go GATA; Go Gold!
    Go Terbo!
    Silver Stock Report
    by Jason Hommel, January 29, 2008
    My gut tells me that the gold price has a good chance to go up by more than $25 in one day on Friday, February 1st, and again, another $25 in one day on Monday, February 4th, because a certain ad will come out in a Washington paper on Thursday, this week.
    
    Why do I make such a bold statement? Because it's not that bold when you know what GATA knows.
    
    Also, Peter Degraaf is saying something similar:
    news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1201590240...
    
    "For the next few weeks or months, analysts will likely refer to the latest rise in the gold price, which started today, as the GATA RALLY."
    
    GATA has good information about gold, that, when shared, makes the gold price move up!
    
    Back in 2005, after GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference informed some 100 key people about gold, the gold price was at about $430/oz. and moved up more than $10/day for the next two days, and then launched a nearly parabolic rally that only stopped at $720/oz. in May, 2006.
    
    GATA's conference presenters were the wisest and most informed gold analysts in the world.
    
    Back then, there was what they called the "$6 rule" in place, where the gold price managers would come out and sell a lot of gold if ever gold was up $6 in one day, because "price action makes market commentary", and so they were trying to cap any excitement in gold. This was one bit of information presented at the conference at goldrush21.com.
    
    One man who attended GATA's show was Andrey Bykov, the personal economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. I met this man. I was at the show. He said it was the best conference he had attended in his life. That show likely helped Russia to act, to buy gold.
    
    www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/aug122005.html
    
    People buy gold when they know what is going on. When they realize the true supply/demand picture, that the central banks of the world are running out of gold after having engaged in leasing and selling their gold for years that has had a tendency to cap the price, making gold way too cheap, then people buy gold.
    
    On Thursday, GATA will run a full page ad in the Wall Street Journal at a cost of $264,400. This ad will have to be "answered" by the gold establishment Wall Street banks, just like I had to answer Jessica Cross yesterday. But what can they say? Who will answer and how? What will they do, bring out Jessica Cross again to spew some nonsense?
    
    If the ad is not enough to spill the beans on the gold market, then GATA's conference in April, probably will.
    
    The circulation of the Wall Street Journal is more than 2,000,000.
    My circulation is about 68,000.
    GATA's email list is maybe about 5000 to 10,000.
    
    See GATA.org
    See GoldRush21.com
    --You can order a DVD of the Historic GATA gold conference for $20.
    
    A preview of GATA's 2 meg pdf file ad:
    www.gata.org/files/GATA-AD-01-14-2008...
    www.silverstockreport.com/GATA/GATA-A... <--faster download
    
    Disclaimer: I do not know the future. I cannot predict what will happen on Friday. And I certainly would never bet, nor gamble, nor engage in any futures contracts. But I would, and I have, bought real, physical, rare silver and gold in anticipation and expectation of all that I do know.
    
    Regarding my email from yesterday, "There is no Silver Surplus":
    silverstockreport.com/2008/surplus.html
    
    This was confirmed by a dealer's dealer in Menlo Park, a dealer who I've ordered with, in the past, with great confidence and success, a source that I trust, respect, and admire.
    
    Jason,
    I am glad you wrote the article contesting the so-called "silver surplus.
    
    The Bullion Desk article just yesterday intimidated one of my long-time silver customers to trade a bit of his silver for platinum.
    
    The situation you describe at Rocklin is similar to what we see here. Silver owners of the past generation or their heirs have been providing the silver we have been selling to new investors. This has enabled low premiums and plenty of supply for the new buyers. My conversations with other colleagues result in hearing the same thing. Of course this old supply source will run low, probably soon, but for now the new buyer gets the best of a young rising market and reasonable cost. Even though business is good, we have not had to order freshly made bars for quite some time.
    
    We are planning to be in S.F. for Ted's event Feb 8.
    Best,
    Robert Mish
    
    MISH INTERNATIONAL MONETARY INC
    650-324-9110
    
    See, positive things happen when people are willing to stand up for the truth. Speaking of which, my brother is willing to lay it on the line, too. Again, I'm hosting a fundraising dinner in Grass Valley, CA, for Theodore Terbolizard, my brother, who is running for Congress. $100 dinner at 6pm Friday. FREE at 7-9PM
    
    www.silverstockreport.com/2008/fundra...
    
    Sincerely,
    
    Jason Hommel
    
18. [verwijderd] 31 januari 2008 21:06

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    Twee uitstekende filmpjes over GATA en GOUD;
    
    MUST SEE!!!!
    
    www.wave2capital.com/index99.php
    
    HTG
19. [verwijderd] 5 februari 2008 19:18

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    Institutional Sea Change in Gold
    
    The institutional money is now starting to buy bullion and gold shares. According to a recent front page Wall Street Journal article, gold is now getting the attention of big money. The Bessemer Trust, a New York institution managing over $52 billion for wealthy families held no gold three years ago. Now they have $300 million in gold bullion and are looking to buy more. According to Marc Stern, chief investment officer of Bessemer, “Gold doesn’t have a policy, gold doesn’t have a central banker, gold doesn’t have a printing press. It is a form of insurance.”
    
    Brett Gallagher, who oversees $63 billion in investments for Julius Baer Investment Management agrees. “We don’t feel the dollar is a good store of value” he said in the WSJ January 31st article. His fund holds gold-related stocks as well as other commodities-related shares that he believes will benefit from a weak dollar.
    
    Continuing the institutional sea change, a recent Barron’s interview featured Joseph McNay, who manages more than $3 billion at Essex Investment Management in Boston.
    
    “Increasing the money supply kept the situation from getting worse faster than it would have otherwise,” said McNay. “From one point of view, that's good. But there is a point of view from which it is not good, and that is it decreases the value of our currency on a consistent basis and sometimes at an accelerated rate. In the past four or five years, the euro has gone from 82 cents to the dollar to $1.48. That is all lost purchasing power in our currency. We are in a lose-lose situation. The decline in the value of our currency is directly inflationary. Lost purchasing power is inflation. The bigger risk is that, at some point, the large holders of U.S. dollars may decide they want a lot less of them, if any. This is a very challenging set of conditions for us.”
    
    A Currency Alternative
    
    McNay continued as to the implications for the market. “We are going to have an even more narrowed and focused market than we had last year. Something the world is going to want now is a currency alternative. An investment I have felt positive about but now feel dramatically more positive about is gold. Gold is probably the single most important investment that most of us can have a representation in.”
    
    If the smart money institutional crowd is beginning to move into the market, chances are the bull has a ways to run. In 1980, investors would line up outside banks to buy gold. Today the average investor is much more interested in Google or Apple. If the dollar continues to deflate as the Fed pumps unlimited liquidity into the credit markets, the average investor may begin to realize dollar-denominated assets are not the safe harbor they once were.
    
    Public Not Significantly Involved in Gold
    
    The metals bull market will likely not end until there is wide public acceptance, which is not yet on the radar screen. Before that happens other factors are likely to push the market forward. Those would be 1) continued de-hedging by larger gold hedgers such as Barrick, 2) new demand from China, Russia and Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds, and 3) much greater institutional participation around the globe. As in all bull markets, the public jumps in at the end, creating a final top.
    
    www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
20. smith&jones 24 februari 2008 19:01

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    GOLD AND SILVER NEWS
    ESTABLISHED MINES NEARING LIFE END
    Gold output falling at Africa's No. 3 producer
    Mali, Africa's third largest gold producer, expects production to fall sharply again in 2008 according to government forecasts
    Author: Tiemoko Diallo
    Posted: Tuesday , 19 Feb 2008
    BAMAKO (REUTERS) -
    Gold output in Mali, sub-Saharan Africa's third largest producer, is set to fall sharply again this year as the country's established mines reach the end of their productive lives, government forecasts showed on Monday.
    Gold production is expected to fall to 50.11 tonnes in 2008, down 12 percent on last year's 56.75 tonnes. That figure was itself nine percent lower than output in 2006, according to mines ministry data seen by Reuters.
    "We've started the phase of lower production," Lassana Guindo, head of the ministry's mines division, told Reuters. "Most of the big mines have reached the end of their lives and encouraging exploration is underway to find new resources and increase their lifespan," he said.
    Gold is Mali's leading export, ahead of cotton and livestock. The country is Africa's third biggest producer after South Africa and Ghana.
    Guindo said major mines had come to the end of their "open sky" phase -- gold mining near the surface -- and had now entered the deep exploration stage, during which output was lower because of the complicated extraction process.
    The Sadiola mine, partly owned by AngloGold Ashanti , only produced 13 tonnes of gold in 2007, down from just over 17 tonnes the previous year. Guindo said new discoveries could prolong the mine's life until 2024.
    The Morila mine, in which AngloGold Ashanti and Randgold own stakes, saw its output fall to 16.8 tonnes last year from 19.2 tonnes in 2006.
    The Tabakoto mine owned by Canada's Nevsun Resources has not been producing for two months due to technical difficulties, the mines ministry data showed.
    Following are the details of the mines ministry forecasts for gold production in 2008, in tonnes and according to mine. Companies who hold stakes in each mine appear in brackets:
    
    2008 2007
    
    ESTABLISHED MINES
    
    SADIOLA (AngloGold) 13.9 13.0
    MORILA (AngloGold, Randgold) 14.5 16.8
    LOULO (Randgold) 7.6 9.8
    YATELA (AngloGold) 5.2 9.9
    KALANA (Avnel Gold) 0.9 1.0
    TABAKATO (Nevsun Resources) 0.5* 2.3
    
    NEW MINES
    
    KODIERAN (Wassoul) 1.5 n/a**
    SYAMA (Resolute Mining) 2.0 n/a**
    ARTISANAL AND SMALL MINES 4.0 4.0
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    TOTAL: 50.1 56.7
    * Tabakato figure is based on mine restarting operations in late 2008.
    ** Kodieran and Syama mines had been due to come online in 2007 but their start has been pushed back to 2008