Edelmetalen Terug naar discussie overzicht

Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

1. [verwijderd] 25 februari 2008 22:30

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   Silver Wheaton (SWL): verwacht 60% hogere omzet zilver in 2010. Koers is recentelijk achtergebleven omdat moederbedrijf Goldcorp haar belang heeft afgestoten.
   www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story....
2. [verwijderd] 18 maart 2008 08:25

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   How the Liquidity Crises Affect the Junior Explorers
   
   By Neville Maycock
   17 Mar 2008 at 12:22 PM
   
   ORLANDO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve right now is scrambling to deal with many issues within the markets. They are currently dealing with a housing crisis, a liquidity crisis and a mounting national debt.
   
   The markets have seen multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, liquidity injections by other major banks, and an economic stimulus package by the U.S. government. All of these were done in order to stimulate the faltering U.S. economy. World central banks have also helped out by pumping trillions of dollars into the market as well. The end result has been the markets going into a deeper panic, as no one truly knows how far these credit crises have gone.
   
   The Federal Reserve’s hope is to stop a recession from occurring. Thru all of their manipulation of free market forces, they have not been able to stop the current downturn in the markets. Meanwhile the U.S. National Debt keeps rising at an alarming rate and the value of the dollar has reached all-time lows.
   
   An Associated Press report on Friday discussed how Ben Bernanke vowed to help distressed homeowners. Bernanke said the Federal Reserved is "strongly committed to fully employing our authority, expertise and resources to help alleviate their distress." My question to Mr. Bernanke is how do you plan on saving these homeowners, while keeping the dollar afloat while bailing out these homeowners and their associated mortgage banks as well?
   
   Next Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank of the world essentially being bought out for US$236.2 million by JP Morgan because their leverage in a deteriorating sub-prime mortgage market. How can anyone feel comfortable with the state of the markets?
   
   Now some will say in this kind of market environment, the best move will be to put your money into safe havens such as precious metals and their associated stocks. My opinion is while long-term gold and silver will greatly benefit from the devaluing of currency, the associated stocks will not benefit at this point. The reason behind this is that stock investors will be running to the exits trying to take whatever money they have in the markets out of it.
   
   This will include some of the outperforming precious metal stocks. A serious downturn in the world markets all at once will take all the great stocks perform just as poorly as the bad stocks.
   
   Another interesting twist to the liquidity crisis is the junior mining explorers will have a more difficult time obtaining financing for their projects. Banks as well has institutional investors will be very selective in their lending practices and will most likely structure deals that will almost guarantee that they will not lose money on their investment. In this environment marginal projects will not get financed.
   
   Therefore, these junior mining explorers may have to turn to the senior producers, who have plenty of reserve cash, to be their finance partner for their development projects. Again these deals will be greatly skewed to benefit the senior producers.
   
   Thus, junior mining explorers, who have big capital expenditure projects in the bankable feasibility stage, might be delayed a long time in obtaining financing. This will drive supply of the associated metal down. Now will the demand be there by the time these companies obtain financing? These junior companies and their shareholders certainly hope so.
   
   Even though the sub-prime market issues might make all the precious metals bulls finally seem correct in their predictions, the associated mining sector might take a hit as the financing won’t be there to develop these major projects.
   
3. [verwijderd] 22 maart 2008 19:48

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   Rush back to gold by Eastern jewellery markets suggests price may have bottomed.
   
   Eastern demand for gold from the jewellery sector seems to have returned in a big way after some strong resistance to the high gold price seen earlier this month and this could suggest the current sharp reversal may have reached its nadir.
   Author: Lawrence Williams
   Posted: Saturday , 22 Mar 2008
   
   LONDON -
   
   One of the elements which observers have used to express caution over the rise in gold prices over the past month seems to have reversed in the past week as the metal price fell around 10 percent from its plus $1,000 highs in only a matter of days.
   
   Reports from Asia in particular suggest that jewellery sector buyers and investors have been climbing back into the market for the yellow metal in a big way in the past few days after virtually boycotting it in the run up to the recent higher price levels. The jewellery market tends to be pretty shrewd in its assessment of price levels, and this activity suggests an underpinning of the gold price at or around current levels and further suggests, perhaps, that the upward momentum will come back into effect before too long.
   
   The Eastern jewellery sector, making its living by day to day trade in precious metals far more so than its Western counterparts because mark-up margins are far lower, tends to be a strong bellwether as to where the price is going. The past week, once gold came off its highs, has seen reports of a huge upsurge in buying in countries like India, China, Vietnam and Thailand. Indeed some observers have described the rush back into gold as unprecedented.
   
   Sell on strength, buy on weakness has always been the investor's adage, and is obviously a wise principle, but picking the tops and bottoms is far from easy. Guidance from those who make their basic living from the marginal costs of gold could thus be good advice. But this more basic demand will be being heavily affected by profit taking within the Western institutional sector, with many funds needing to enhance their own basic liquidity. Whether this will have yet run its course will be another factor affecting the market.
   
   Indications too that investment demand has shot up in the past few days has also been strong, but with Western markets mostly closed for the longish Easter break, it is a little difficult to judge price movement trends. However, what we have seen is that the gold price has stabilised in the low $900s and is beginning to creep back up again, driven by the return in demand from the East. It will be interesting to see what happens when Eastern markets open again next week as these will likely indicate whether there may be a quick bounce back towards the $1,000 level, or whether there will be a sustained period in the low $900s, or even a further fall.
   
   There is still no doubt that the majority of specialist gold market observers are looking for a return to higher prices over the next few weeks as gold price fundamentals remain exceedingly strong as Central Banks and institutions battle to counter the effects of the ever continuing global financial crisis. Much will likely depend on institutional liquidity, but the big climb back into the market from the jewellery sector should ensure that demand remains strong, at least at current prices, and the downside risk is thus more limited.
   
   Whether we will see $1,000 gold again in the next few months once the Eastern wedding season is over and demand is traditionally more limited remains to be seen, but prices could be set for a good surge again later in the year, particularly if the dollar remains weak. Indeed continuing dollar weakness will likely underpin the gold price in the short term at least. There will also likely be some nervousness in the market again should the psychological $1,000 price be neared or breached again given what has just happened price-wise.
   
   But, should the dollar strengthen and the US avoid a real recession, the really big upsides looked for by some gold followers may yet be further away than they would hope and predict.
4. [verwijderd] 2 april 2008 22:20

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   Tijd om in te slaan!!!...."Buy with Both Hands and Feet"............
   
   news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/12071484...
5. [verwijderd] 14 april 2008 20:29

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   Juniors on the move in May.......
   
   By Jon Nones
   14 Apr 2008 at 12:38 PM
   
   In its most recent edition of The GOLD Report, Adrian Day Asset Management interviews Greg McCoach, an entrepreneur involved with the precious metals industry as a bullion dealer, investor and newsletter writer (Mining Speculator). Greg is also the President of AmeriGold, a gold bullion dealer. Here is a brief excerpt of the interview.
   
   TGR: How does [recent market activity] bode for mining stocks?
   
   MCCOACH: The junior mining stocks currently are in a real funk; I think we’re going to stay in that funk until we get past the capital gains taxpaying season, which for Canadians is April 30th, but here in the U.S., of course, it’s April 15th. So after that I think these precious metal prices are going to start pulling these junior mining stocks out of the trough and moving them much higher. There are three or four big hedge funds in New York that have gone long gold with all the majors, but have shorted all the juniors, and as these metal prices keep going higher, the juniors are going to want to move, and these guys are going to have to run to cover their short positions.
   
   And that should really launch our junior market up to new highs for the HUI and XIU. So I'm very bullish on the metals - we will see what happens as we move forward, but it should be fun to watch.
   
   www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
   
6. [verwijderd] 7 mei 2008 08:19

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   World gold supply trend 'tragic' – Barrick founder Munk
   By: Liezel Hill
   Published: 6th May 2008
   
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   
   The failure of the gold-mining industry to find and exploit large new deposits of the yellow metal was “tragic”, Barrick Gold chairperson and acting CEO Peter Munk said on Tuesday.
   
   “The supply side is tragic...it is the very challenge that keeps a company like Barrick and the remaining few major gold companies totally preoccupied,” he said at the company's annual shareholders meeting.
   
   "We're running out of major gold deposits, and the deposits we do have become increasingly difficult to come on stream."
   
   Opposition from nongovernmental organisations, as well as increasing, "yet understandable" demands from host countries that they receive a bigger share of profits from mines, was making it difficult to develop successful new operations.
   
   CEO Greg Wilkins, who attended the meeting although he is on an extended leave of absence owing to a serious illness, agreed that global mine production was “challenged”.
   
   “Existing mines are maturing, have lower grades and are producing less,” Wilkins said.
   
   Further, despite record levels of spending by the industry on exploration, there had been virtually no major new discoveries in recent years.
   
   Richard O'Brien, who heads the third-largest gold producer by volume, Newmont Mining made similar comments earlier this year.
   
   O'Brien said at the time that discovering big new gold deposits was becoming an increasing challenge for the industry.
   
   Global gold production would likely continue to decline, as fewer large, economically mineable deposits are discovered, he predicted.
   
   Barrick, the world's biggest gold producer, ousted Newmont from the top spot in 2006 when it bought smaller rival Placer Dome.
   
   The company has budgeted $200-million for exploration this year, compared with the $179-million spent in 2007.
   
   
7. [verwijderd] 16 mei 2008 09:03

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   CFTC Sees No Evidence of Manipulation in Silver Market By Jon A. Nones 15 May 2008 at 06:04 PM
   
   SEATTLE (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Much to the chagrin of silver enthusiasts who believe the price has been artificially held back, a second study in four years by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed no evidence of manipulation in the silver futures market. Silver bugs now question the CFTC.
   
   “The CFTC is criminally negligent. This is an agency that makes it so the big commercial banks can do whatever they want. The public has no faith in the CFTC or FRB anymore,” commented one RI reader.
   
   During the past 25 years, the CFTC has received numerous complaints from silver investors like the one above alleging that the price of silver futures traded on the NYMEX has been manipulated downward. In 2004, the Commission responded to investors' concerns in an open letter that concluded that the existence of a long-term manipulation was not plausible.
   
   Yesterday’s report, which covered the period 2005-2007, analyzed the recent price movements in the silver market in relation to price movements of other metals, the relationship between the price of NYMEX silver futures and spot silver prices and the relationship between the positions held by large short silver futures traders and silver futures prices.
   
   It concluded that silver cash and futures prices have risen dramatically between 2005 and 2007, with silver outperforming the gold, platinum and palladium markets, "suggesting that silver futures prices are not depressed relative to other metals prices," while NYMEX silver futures prices tend to track closely the price of physical silver.
   
   The chart below shows that the price of silver at the end of 2007 was about 130% greater than it was at the beginning of 2005, rising from $4.26 to $8.36. This compares with percentage increases in the price of gold of 95%, platinum 83% and palladium 106%.
   
   “In short, there is nothing obvious in the silver price series between 2005 and 2007, when compared to other metals’ prices, to suggest that silver prices have been manipulated downward.”
   
   Source: CFTC Report on Large Short Trader Activity in the Silver Futures Market
   
   Furthermore, the CFTC concluded that the level of concentration of short silver traders did not appear to be unusually high nor did it exhibit any unusual patterns that would suggest manipulation or illegal activity as compared to other metals.
   
   “There is no observable relationship between short-futures-trader concentration levels and silver prices,” the Commission concluded.
   
   High levels of short futures open interest can suggest possible manipulation when shorts threaten to dump unwanted supplies of a commodity onto the market, but this usually results when contract terms are flawed so that there is a strong disincentive for longs to take the commodity on delivery since they cannot resell it at its economic value.
   
   “There is no evidence that the terms of the silver futures contract are flawed, that long traders are averse to taking delivery, or that excess deliveries have been made in the silver futures market,” according to the CFTC.”
   
   Source: CFTC Report on Large Short Trader Activity in the Silver Futures Market
   
   Jason Hommel, editor of the Silver Stock Report, insinuated that the CFTC was “willfully blind ... complicit in the manipulation” in response to the report. He gave four reasons (paraphrased below) of why there had and has been manipulation, especially recently.
   
   Over 19 major coin shops around the world ran out of silver as the price fell from $21 to $16, from March 19th to April 2, and there are many reports even now that it will take a month or longer to get silver. How can the price go down, when there is no silver to buy?
   In its 2004 open letter, the CFTC says that no manipulation to the downside could exist as long as investors have "unrestricted access" to buy silver, but admits that there are position limits that prevent that from taking place.
   Position limits do not apply to the traders on the short side, only the long side. The positions on the short side are too large, and concentrated among too few traders. Concentration is the ultimate evidence of manipulation, and it is ignored.
   All kinds of paper promises are by nature, a substitute for silver and gold, and hence a manipulation, because their very existence creates a substitute demand for something other than physical silver and gold. Thus, even paper money itself, T-Bills, Bonds, CDs, savings accounts, are all manipulations that suppress the silver price.
   Jon Nadler, senior analyst of Kitco Bullion Dealers, categorically refuted Hommel’s theories in speaking with Resource Investor today.
   
   “There is no shortage of silver. There is a shortage of one-ounce round blanks at the U.S. Mint and at the RCM [due to] a combination of poor planning, program priorities such as the 2010 Olympic coin program, etc.,” he said. “There is certainly no shortage of the basic ingredient needed to make these coin blanks: silver bars.”
   
   He said Kitco is accepting orders for all silver products right now. Investors may have to wait for Maple Leafs or U.S. Eagles, but there are available 100 ounce bars, 1000 ounce bars and “I am sure that bags of silver are not hard to get.”
   
   “Amid this ‘imaginary shortage’ the Perth Mint has so much silver choking its warehouses that it has taken the unprecedented step of having to impose storage fees on unallocated metal. You tell me where the shortage is,” said Nadler.
   
   Jeffrey Christian, CEO of CPM Group, also told RI today that he also did not see any evidence of manipulation, but evidence to the contrary. He said the market and prices have behaved as expected based on fundamental analysis, “which suggests that there is no conspiracy distorting the market since we do not have one built in to our model.”
   
   In a recent presentation by CPM Group, Christian noted that one common misinterpretation in the silver market is the view that the large net short positions of metals traders represent a naked net short position taken to speculate on silver prices. Instead, they are hedges of long positions in the physical market.
   
   “Our projections of future silver prices have been pretty accurate based on fundamentals and macroeconomic trends over the past 28 years, and we have never found ourselves blindsided by a conspiracy that distorted the market,” he said.
   
   Silver futures for July delivery rose 7.2 cents to $16.685 an ounce on Thursday. The price has risen 12% so far this year.
   
8. [verwijderd] 28 mei 2008 11:45

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   The Next Attack on Gold Has Begun
   by Gary North
   
   When governments want to expand power over the monetary system, they invoke the need to clamp down on money laundering by criminals. There is a problem here. After these laws and new rules are passed, crime never goes down, but our privacy does. That is a problem for us. It is not a problem for governments.
   
   The Toronto Globe and Mail ran a story on money laundering and new Web-based businesses that allow people to buy small amounts of gold and then spend this gold as money.
   
   The development of these businesses is the preliminary step to the restoration of private money. This is regarded with great hostility by national governments and central banks. National governments ever since 1914 have worked with central banks to remove gold from circulation as money. This began with the outbreak of World War I. It has never ceased.
   
   The development of the credit card was the culmination of a dream of every fractional reserve banker. Bankers in a fractional reserve system have always feared the withdrawal of currency by depositors. This reverses the fractional reserve process. It shrinks the money supply.
   
   By substituting digits for currency, bankers have solved this problem. A depositor can move digital money out of his account, but it is transferred to another digital account. The system does not lose deposits. When someone withdraws currency and does not redeposit it, the money supply declines. So, credit cards are a banker's dream come true. The threat of bank runs by depositors has ended.
   
   But now a handful of small companies have offered depositors a way to substitute digital money for gold stored in a vault. This gold can now be spent digitally. This creates the threat of a rival form of money.
   
   Hardly anyone accepts gold for transactions. So, the threat to banks is remote today. It is merely the first hesitant step in the creation of an alternative monetary system. Yet this threat has aroused the hostility of some government organizations: those that monitor money.
   
   This alternative money avenue is tiny. Hardly anyone knows of these firms. Fewer still have signed up. Nevertheless, some government agencies are preparing to make war on these tiny firms. "This thing must be nipped in the bud." The Globe and Mail reports on this new pressure by governments.
   
   Canada's financial intelligence agency warns that criminals may be exploiting Internet-based companies that convert cash into electronic gold, exposing a new front in the international effort to restrict terrorist financing and money laundering.
   While other channels of money laundering are successfully being shut down, authorities are increasingly worried about a proliferation of "digital precious metals operators" websites that offer clients a chance to conduct Internet business in units backed by gold and silver rather than paper currencies.
   
   The Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, or FINTRAC, has produced a report on this supposed threat to the public. It's bad, the report says. It's huge. It's everywhere. The reporter summarized this report. These companies are "facilitating millions of transactions on the fringe of the international financial system – the equivalent of a Wild West where legitimate businesses, privacy-seeking individuals and criminals can mingle just out of reach of the law."
   We know what the Wild West was. It was where the U.S. government had not sent a marshal to police everything. The Wild West was just out of reach of the law, meaning Federal law.
   
   At stake is the effectiveness of the financial reporting rules that countries such as the United States, Britain and Canada enacted in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. A network that allows individuals to move money around the world means criminals can avoid commercial banks and other financial institutions required to turn over their records to the government.
   You can see where this is headed. Legitimate businesses and privacy-seeking individuals are going to be told to surrender to the Greater Good of the Government in its program of stamping out criminals and terrorists. We all know how successful these government efforts have been so far. We are therefore supposed to accept more of the same.
   "As financial institutions and non-financial businesses increasingly deter money laundering and terrorism financing, adaptable and technology-savvy criminals and terrorist financiers will likely see other unregulated, exploitable avenues to further their nefarious purposes," concludes the report, which was made available under the Access to Information Act.
   "Digital precious metals may become one of them."
   
   The horror!
   
   One firm that offers these services is Goldmoney. (www.goldmoney.com) Its vault is located in London. The company is outside the jurisdiction of Canada and the United States. It has done a great deal to restrict access by criminals. But none of this matters to governments. The firm's offense is that it offers a way for individuals to escape mass price inflation, which is always the creation of central banks. This escape hatch is considered criminal by governments.
   
   WHY GOVERNMENTS HATE GOLD
   
   When a society's monetary system is based exclusively on private contracts and voluntary exchange, civil governments find it difficult to make money by counterfeiting. They cannot directly control the monetary system. They can influence it through legislation and the courts by altering what constitutes a legally enforceable contract. The main interference here is a government's decision to allow banks and private storage facilities to issue receipts – IOUs – for gold or silver that are not covered 100% by the quantity and fineness of the metal promised on the receipt. This violates private contract law. It authorizes fraud. It legalizes counterfeiting. But the government is not helped much by this interpretation of contracts. Banks and warehouse storage facilities are the main beneficiaries.
   
   The history of civil government has been a history of the governments' assertion of sovereignty over money. They do not prove the case for such sovereignty as an inherent attribute of civil government. They do not even mention this theoretical problem. There merely enforce the principle by law.
   
   There is a reason for this. All civil governments, with the lone exception of Byzantium from 325 to 1453, have deliberately tampered with the metal content of the monetary unit. They have practiced counterfeiting. They have added less expensive metal to the silver or gold and have then spent the new money into circulation at the older, higher value.
   
   This is theft. Governments steal from naïve, trusting individuals who sell at yesterday's prices on the assumption that the nation's official counterfeiter has not, coin by coin, stolen silver or gold and replaced it with tin or some other base metal. The skeptics see what has happened and raise prices, or they borrow with the intention of repaying the loan with money of reduced purchasing power.
   
   Counterfeiting, when practiced by a private agency not licensed by the government, is denounced as theft and is prosecuted by the government. On the other hand, whenever counterfeiting is practiced by a national government or a government-licensed central bank and fractionally reserved commercial banks, this is referred to as scientific monetary policy. It is heralded by
9. [verwijderd] 28 mei 2008 11:47

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   On the other hand, whenever counterfeiting is practiced by a national government or a government-licensed central bank and fractionally reserved commercial banks, this is referred to as scientific monetary policy. It is heralded by free market economists as being in the public interest.
   
   Central banks are charged with the responsibility of carrying out monetary policy. The major purpose of the Federal Reserve System (and other central banks) is to regulate the money supply and provide a monetary climate that is in the interest of the entire economy. (Gwartney & Stroup, Economics, 4th edition, p. 281).
   A MORAL ISSUE
   
   Sometime around 750 B.C., the prophet Isaiah identified the practice of monetary debasement as one of a series of government acts against the public interest.
   
   Thy silver is become dross, thy wine mixed with water (Isa. 1:22).
   The process of debasement, he argued, was initially moral debasement. It affected the entire nation. "Wash you, make you clean; put away the evil of your doings from before mine eyes; cease to do evil" (Isaiah 1:16). Then it became judicial debasement. "Thy princes are rebellious, and companions of thieves: every one loveth gifts, and followeth after rewards: they judge not the fatherless, neither doth the cause of the widow come unto them" (Isaiah 1:23). But its most visible mark was monetary debasement. This led to the debasement of wine, i.e., product quality debasement. He warned of God's wrath to come.
   Therefore saith the Lord, the LORD of hosts, the mighty One of Israel, Ah, I will ease me of mine adversaries, and avenge me of mine enemies: And I will turn my hand upon thee, and purely purge away thy dross, and take away all thy tin (Isaiah 1:24–25).
   Academic economists refuse to identify monetary debasement as a moral issue. Economics textbooks at every level discuss fractional reserve banking in terms of technical issues, never moral issues. The only exception is Murray Rothbard's little-known textbook on money and banking, The Mystery of Banking. He identified fractional reserve banking as immoral. It involves theft. The book was never adopted by any economics department. It soon went out of print. You can download it for free here.
   
   There is moral cause and effect in society. Because counterfeiting by any agency is immoral, because it deliberately forces the redistribution of wealth from those who spend the money late in the process, after prices have risen, society suffers. An assault on the integrity of contracts undermines cooperative ventures.
   
   Whenever the government or its licensed monopoly, the national central bank, spearheads this assault, the public is unable to defend itself. It does not even suspect there is a problem until the rate of price inflation is widespread. Even then, the government and its spokesmen blame speculators for rising prices.
   
   RIGHT HAND VS. LEFT HAND
   
   Jesus said, "But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth" (Matthew 6:3). His point was that we are not to seek fame from our giving.
   
   Take heed that ye do not your alms before men, to be seen of them: otherwise ye have no reward of your Father which is in heaven. Therefore when thou doest thine alms, do not sound a trumpet before thee, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, that they may have glory of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward (Matthew 6:1–2).
   That thine alms may be in secret: and thy Father which seeth in secret himself shall reward thee openly (Matthew 6:4).
   
   In the field of civil government, the right hand ought to know what the left hand is doing. Otherwise, policy may be at cross-purposes.
   This is what monetary policy is in the United States and Canada. Both nations produce gold coins. They are not really coins. They are not counted in the money supply. But they look like coins. People can buy them.
   
   Problem: evil criminals and terrorists can use these non-coins in their nefarious plans. These non-coins leave no paper trail of digits.
   
   My advice is that we should take advantage of the governments' schizophrenia. If we can legally buy a little future freedom, we should.
   
   I recommend using digital gold storage facilities that are legally incorporated outside the United States, and whose vaults are also outside. But the little guy should first buy gold coins issued by his nation's mint. Maybe after the first $10,000, he should consider an off-shore vault program.
   
   CONCLUSION
   
   The war on gold will continue. For my free Ebook on this, click here.
   
   May 28, 2008
   
   Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit www.garynorth.com. He is also the author of a free 20-volume series, An Economic Commentary on the Bible.
   
   
10. [verwijderd] 26 juni 2008 20:50

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    Gold Futures Surge Most in 16 Months on Inflation Concerns
    
    By Pham-Duy Nguyen
    
    June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold surged the most in 16 months on speculation the Federal Reserve won't rush to raise borrowing costs to curb inflation. Silver jumped the most since March.
    
    The Fed yesterday kept its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent, even as policy makers acknowledged heightening inflationary expectations. An OPEC official said crude oil may reach $170 a barrel soon. Gold reached an all-time high of $1,033.90 an ounce in March as fuel, corn and other commodities soared and the dollar fell to a record against the euro.
    
    ``The Fed said that inflation is a major concern, but they're not going to do anything about it, which made gold go ballistic,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. ``The dollar is going to get slammed again.''
    
    Gold futures for August delivery jumped $31.10, or 3.5 percent, to $913.40 an ounce at 12:18 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would mark the biggest percentage gain for a most-active contract since Feb. 21, 2007.
    
    Silver futures for September delivery soared 75.3 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $17.36 an ounce. A close at that price would mark the biggest increase since March 5.
    
    Before today, silver advanced 11 percent this year, while gold climbed 5.3 percent.
    
    Traders trimmed bets on a rate increase in the next three months after the Fed's announcement yesterday. Interest-rate futures show a 26 percent chance the Fed will keep borrowing costs at 2 percent in September, compared with a 2 percent chance a week ago.
    
    Iran Tensions
    
    Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister and the president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said in an interview on France 24 television that a conflict involving Iran might push oil prices over $200 and as high as $400.
    
    Oil rose as much as 3.3 percent today to $138.95. The record was $139.89 on June 16. Iran has the second-biggest proved oil reserves and is OPEC's second-largest producer.
    
    ``Gold rose on the comments from OPEC,'' said Narayan Gopalakrishnan, a trader at MKS Finance, one of Switzerland's four bullion refiners.
    
    Investors traditionally buy gold to hedge against a loss of purchasing power. Gold rallied 39 percent from Sept. 17 to March 17 as the Fed slashed rates from 5.25 percent after a housing slump and credit crisis threatened to push the U.S. economy into recession.
    
    Analysts say the economy is too feeble for the Fed to raise rates any time soon. The U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 1 percent in the first quarter, capping the weakest six months of growth in five years.
    
    Commodity Rally
    
    The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose to a record today and has gained 29 percent this year. In May, U.S. consumer costs climbed at an annual rate of 4.2 percent and wholesale prices rose 7.2 percent, according to data from the Labor Department.
    
    ``The Fed seems to have decided to protect growth by holding rates low and to accept the fact that this period of inflation is inevitable and unstoppable,'' said Patrick Chidley, an analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Inflation is the lesser of two evils. Investors will increase their positions in gold, and it's likely to continue upward.''
    
    The Fed has been more aggressive in cutting rates and slower to raise borrowing costs than other central banks, eroding the value of the dollar, analysts said.
    
    `Major Problem'
    
    ``The Fed's decision to not fight inflation is having a direct impact on gold prices along with many other commodities,'' said Tom Hartmann, an analyst at Altavista Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``Interest rates will not rise, though that would be a quick way to combat high commodity prices. The Europeans and other central banks seem keenly aware that inflation is a major problem.''
11. smith&jones 26 juni 2008 22:12

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    We krijgende finale capitulatie.
    
    Ik moet me wel heel sterk vergissen... wil het niet op gang komen nu.
    
    S&J.
12. [verwijderd] 26 juni 2008 22:39

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    Nou, kom maar op dan met een paar boude voorspellingen.......
13. smith&jones 27 juni 2008 00:14

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    De supercycle zet door en alle resources gaan verder door het dak, short covering leidt tot paniek, majors gaan productie eindelijk veilig stellen omdat het tapijt door de Chinezen onder hun voeten vandaan wordt gerukt, en de dollar gaat zeer zware klappen krijgen.
    
    Zie de idiote spotprijzen voor ijzererts, en de verdubbeling voor vaste afname door oa Rio.
    
    Schokgolven door de markten, vlucht in goud door institutionals en particulieren,
    
    Volgens mij: vliegt het dak er compleet af de komende maanden voor goud.
    
    Ik waag me niet aan een voorspelling qua waarde, dat is niet te voorzien, alleen een wilde rit opwaarts, zo ver wil ik wel gaan.
    
    Fasten your seatbelts,
    S&J.
    
    
14. [verwijderd] 27 juni 2008 08:03

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    Gewoonweg fantastisch dus !!!
15. smith&jones 27 juni 2008 09:27

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    ha ha ....
    
    S&J.
16. [verwijderd] 12 juli 2008 13:24

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    Het is al eerder in andere draadjes geplaatst maar hoort hier IMHO wel thuis.
    
    
    
    Onthullend is de Chinese interesse in GATA en goud.
    
    
    
    Webinar Bill Murphy & Mihaly Schroth: Link (18 MB, 45 minutes, powerpoint slides & audio)
    
    
    
    gogo-gold.webex.com/gogo-gold/lsr.php...
    
    
    
    From Midas Metropole last night:
    
    
    
    The Netherland’s Mihaly Schroth is going to host a webinar tomorrow at 1 Central Daylight Time. I will be there if I can get my new headset to work in the computer. Should you wish to join in, go to…
    
    
    
    gogo-gold.webex.com/mw0305l/mywebex/d...
    
17. smith&jones 13 juli 2008 15:12

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    GH wil je je neus eens wat vaker laten zien?
    
    De chat wil niet werken op m'n Apple & eerlijk gezegd vind ik het jammer dat het forum zo doods is de laatste tijd...
    
    S&J.
18. [verwijderd] 15 juli 2008 08:47

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    Gisteren Live onaangekondigd op de bekende plek. Nadat de technische problemen waren opgelost, werd het een latertje. Dit was denk ik niet alleen voor mij heel verhelderend maar ook heel erg praktisch voor serieuze beleggers in de juniorsector.Het schijnt jammer genoeg deze keer niet opgenomen te zijn. Mexico Mike beloofde snel terug te komen.
    Hier zijn laatste Blog:
    
    Monday, July 14th, 2008.
    
    Its hard to believe that several months have passed since my last blog entry. That interval is partly due to a very busy travel schedule that has kept me too busy to maintain all the things I want to do, but its also a product of the market environment, and my opinion on where things are headed has changed very quickly as the situation has flip-flopped. I am tuned in looking for evidence that a bottom is in for the PM sector, but I am also deeply concerned about health of the markets, and undecided if I should just buy bullion as the way to play all of this.
    
    If I want to pick a slogan for my strategy right now it would: Make good decisions. That sounds like pretty useless advice, like buy low sell high... But think about it. It is always important to make good decisions but never more so than now. People who go into this with limited commitment are doomed to failure. If you act, then make a decision and stick to it. The market is so volatile now that you will find your confidence tested very quickly and that could force mistakes if you are undecided about your own outlook.
    
    I think we have known for a long time that the financials were in trouble and that the housing bubble and mortgage meltdown would take a toll. It now looks like the entire market could be undermined by this excess. As fear and panic set in, the PM juniors are getting hammered yet again, even though gold and silver may become the go-to assets of last resort. So what to do?
    
    I still think if one wants to own stocks then the junior mining stocks are a good place to be. All stocks will be impacted during a market selloff. Most of the market will be headed lower in a deep recession. So there are not many places to hide. But at least some of the producing juniors can offer increasing earnings as metals prices climb in an atmosphere of extreme duress in the overall economy and therefore these stocks should recover first.
    
    The trick is to do enough homework to limit the choices to those juniors that have strong cash reserves on the balance sheet, and profitable operations with recurring revenue. That cuts the field down to a handfull of players and while they are all under presure today, one can wait out the market with some confidence and still expect these stocks to eventually trend higher.
    
    In fact, this may represent some of the best buying opportunities of the entire bull market. I look at a stock like IPT, that has delivered growth and improved financial performance for several quarters, yet the stock is at a 2-year low. The future is very bright for this company, and the balance sheet is strong, yet it trades along with the junk in the sector. If one can buy Kobe beef and pay for hamburger, then why even consider buying hamburger? IPT is one of my biggest holdings and it a paid advertiser on the website.
    
    I also MAG which is not technically a producer yet. But it does own 44% of one of the biggest new discoveries in all of Mexico which is sure to be developed to a mine. And it has tens of millions in cash on the books so one need not wonder where the money comes from to keep the lights on for this one. I own MAG.
    
    AGI and EDR are two other juniors that are near the bottom of their trading ranges, even though they have built up operating capacity to new highs and are set to generate strong production with lower operating costs. Both are well funded and sitting on long life resource inventories. I own shares of each.
    
    I still believe CS and its sister SST are great places to hide until the correction is over. Both are set-up to continue growing earnings and building stronger balance sheets. Both have excellent management and leverage to strong metals. Neither is faced with a necessity to raise capital anytime soon. I own both and they each contribute with paid advertisements on this website.
    
    There are many other high quality juniors that can meet the above criteria for holding through an ugly market. Maybe this is the beginning of the end for the financial system as we know it, and all stocks are doomed to crash until worthless. If so, then no discussion on relative merits has any relelvance and people will have to find other places to protect wealth. For those that wish to stay invested, then I think its good to at least find companies where exploding balance sheets will not be a issue.
    
    How ironic is it that the juniors are written off by the majority of the market participants as too risky, while the once blue-chip financials are dropping like stones and showing no signs of any kind of bottom? How do the risky juniors make money like banks, and the banks lose money like frontier gambling spec plays? Will the market wake up to this risk imbalance and correct it? Will new money flow into the sector when the metals surprise everyone and establish new all-time highs? One would think so but this has not be a rational market for a long time.
    
    I remain committed to waiting for a bull phase that I believe must come. I also know that despite difficulties for most people, there is still an ocean of money on the sidelines just waiting for the sign to come back into the market. We may be getting that signal soon. I believe there is a growing awareness that the US dollar is not going to bounce for a long time, and that the broad markets have much further to fall. The precious metals are one of the few places left to park money that have not already broken out to unsustainable levels. In fact, the vast majority of market participants are not even considering PMs yet so the bull market has much further to go, IMO. I will be there waiting.
    
    cheers!
    
    mike
19. [verwijderd] 15 juli 2008 12:34

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    Hi S&J,
    
    Heb de afgelopen tijden nogal wat mails gehad. Ben zelf de afgelopen periode zeer druk bezig geweest met een Robot die sinds vorige week daadwerkelijk aan het werk = traden is.
    Heb net even voor je nagevraagd, er zijn meer mensen met apple maar het duurt even voor de applet is gedownload. Denk dat je daar wel wat bekenden tegen gaat/kan komen en zelfs meer dan dat. Als je er op een of andere manier niet uitkomt dan vraag je het hem gewoon toch.
    
    We zullen zien
    
    Succes
    
    GH
    
    

    quote:

    smith&jones schreef:

    GH wil je je neus eens wat vaker laten zien?
    
    De chat wil niet werken op m'n Apple & eerlijk gezegd vind ik het jammer dat het forum zo doods is de laatste tijd...
    
    S&J.
    

20. smith&jones 15 juli 2008 14:55

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    OK, tnx,
    
    S&J.